Fun with Stats!!!

Post #641 » by **fatlever** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:19 pm

^Are we looking at different graphs? I see Charlotte as 29th in pace, 3rd in ORTG, 22 in DRTG and 8 in net. And holy cow, check out Cavs and Warriors.

Post #642 » by **yosemiteben** » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:30 pm

fatlever wrote:^Are we looking at different graphs? I see Charlotte as 29th in pace, 3rd in ORTG, 22 in DRTG and 8 in net. And holy cow, check out Cavs and Warriors.

Yeah, the tweet is change post-ASB from pre-ASB.

Mine is just overall rank post-ASB.

Post #643 » by **fatlever** » Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:06 pm

Anyone know a quick way to look up team records for games decided by less than 10 pts? 5pts? Or within 5pts under last 5 minutes?

Post #644 » by **fatlever** » Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:18 pm

From the Magic game thread, I made a comment about Frank being ice cold or red hot and he seems to shoot better later in the game. Feel-o-meter checks out.

Frank has a TS% of 50.1 for the season.
47.7% 1st half
53.0 2nd half
47.7 1st quarter
56.8 4th quarter

Frank shoots better the longer he's been in the game. Is this because he is such a streaky shooter, it takes time for him to get comfortable and in rhythm?

His 56.8 TS% in the 4th quarter would rank him ahead of elite bigs like - Griffin, Marc Gasol, Horford, Ibaka and Cousins. I'm not saying he's on that level or will ever be on that level, but it shows that when he's in his groove, he's as efficient as many of the best players at his position. We just need him to figure out why he struggles so bad early in games and then fix it.

Conversely, Nic Batum just gets worse and worse during games. His TS% for the season is 49.5, but 56.6 in the 1st half and an abysmal 45.4 in the 4th quarter.

Vanderbilt_Grad · Post #645 » by **Vanderbilt_Grad** » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:02 pm

I think that it has a lot to do with coming off the bench. Frank is used to being a stater pre-NBA. He's not used to coming off the bench and having to go from 0 to 100. I think that he rushes a bit in the early going when coming off the bench. I suspect that he's less streaky when starting due to comfort. Also feel like he's slowly adjusting to his current bench role, but that he would do better overall as a starter.

Post #646 » by **fatlever** » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:04 pm

Vanderbilt_Grad wrote:I think that it has a lot to do with coming off the bench. Frank is used to being a stater pre-NBA. He's not used to coming off the bench and having to go from 0 to 100. I think that he rushes a bit in the early going when coming off the bench. I suspect that he's less streaky when starting due to comfort. Also feel like he's slowly adjusting to his current bench role, but that he would do better overall as a starter.

I thought that might be it, but his TS% as a bench player is actually slightly higher (I think 50% to 49%) vs games when he started.

Mystical Apples · Post #647 » by **Mystical Apples** » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:53 pm

The reasons for Frank's differential are pretty straightforward, IMO. The first is obvious....he's better when he doesn't over-think situations. H1's are less intense (process times allowed) compared to Q4's where being in the moment is required.

Going armchair psychologist, professional athletes disproportionately suffer from "personality disorders" and guessing Frank has a significant dose of anxiety. Which can be a motivating influence on people but is also situationally negative. And being blatantly wrong I'd say Frank's anxiety has a hyperfocus co-pilot. Those types tend to shutout noise with increased stimuli....ie getting hit in face or intense Q4's. Cause Frank kinda sucks during casual Q4 blowouts without flying elbows.

The 2nd issue being Frank's production is more highly correlated with teammates than opponent strength (starters or bench). And by definition, Q4's are about surrounding players with their ideal combinations.

Relatedly, for those criticizing Clifford's "rigid" sub-patterns look no further than Briante or Frank's recent block of minutes....ie Frank shouldn't start but ~ 14 straight minutes is Clifford's attempt to semi-replicate responsibility + engagement.

Post #648 » by **yosemiteben** » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:58 pm

Cliff has said a few times recently that Frank tends to get too down on himself early in games, and that he's needing to work on his confidence so he doesn't lose focus when he misses some shots early. I agree that focus is something that Frank needs to work on, and playing him long stretches seems like a good solution.

Post #649 » by **fatlever** » Tue Mar 28, 2017 12:40 am

Read on Twitter

Mystical Apples · Post #650 » by **Mystical Apples** » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:19 pm

Funny how health (and not-Hawes) impacts production. Marco, Jeremy, and Frank have 3 of the top 5 individual Net's (Kemba, Cody).

Post All-Star NetRtg
Starters: +1.4 (14th)
Bench: +4.4 (6th)
Overall: +2.4 (10th)

http://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/#!?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=02%2F18%2F2017

Mystical Apples · Post #651 » by **Mystical Apples** » Sat Apr 1, 2017 1:42 am

Mystical Apples wrote:Funny how health (and not-Hawes) impacts production. Marco, Jeremy, and Frank have 3 of the top 5 individual Net's (Kemba, Cody).

Post All-Star NetRtg
Starters: +1.4 (14th)
Bench: +4.4 (6th)
Overall: +2.4 (10th)

http://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/#!?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DateFrom=02%2F18%2F2017

bump

Mystical Apples · Post #652 » by **Mystical Apples** » Tue Apr 4, 2017 2:56 am

Showing Drives efficiency since February 1st. Chart is top 30 of the ~ 150 players with > 25 attempts.

The NBA website only calculates Drives FG% but it provides the necessary data to calculate PPP(ossession) that better reflects overall efficiency (FGA, FT FGA attempts, TOV's, OREB's).

Marvin, Lamb, and Frank have been efficient but their ultra low TOV's mask their true efficiency. Kinda incredible considering Lamb's efficiency is on PG volume and Frank's is on wing volume. Crazier......Durant just barely qualified otherwise Marvin and Lamb would've been 1st and 2nd, respectively.

And going off memory from mid-season, this PPP calculation has an r-squared with OffRtg of ~ .40 which places Drives Efficiency just below Catch & Shoot, Playmaking Efficiency, Spot Ups (shared inputs), and PnR handler PPP.

The 2nd chart has C&S eFG% added to the Drives PPP from above. Same deal...since February 1. BTW Kemba's full season CS eFG% leads the entire NBA (70.3%).

Mystical Apples · Post #653 » by **Mystical Apples** » Tue Apr 4, 2017 3:14 am

I didn't look at Drives PPP for the entire season but Lamb, Marvin, and Frank would each be top 20. Kemba is close and maybe Nic too, albeit on low volume.

http://stats.nba.com/players/drives/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612766&sort=DRIVE_FGA&dir=1&PerMode=Totals

Mystical Apples · Post #654 » by **Mystical Apples** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:55 pm

Here's 2016-17 full season Drives PPP. List is top 30 (minimum 100 total attempts)

Same numbers broken down by PGs, Wings, and Bigs to reflect their different usage requirements. I also reduced the minimum attempts for Bigs down to 75 to increase the sample size which captured Marvin, Gasol, and Horford. Otherwise, Frank would've finished 3rd (or 4th depending on Gallo's designation). Dozens of players are borderline combos so I used a 70% primary position criteria, give or take.

Post #655 » by **fatlever** » Sun May 7, 2017 8:38 pm

Read on Twitter

Mystical Apples · Post #656 » by **Mystical Apples** » Thu May 11, 2017 10:53 pm

Of the 62 wings > 1800 minutes last season only Melo and DeRozan had usage rates above 23% accompanied by a negative on/off.

DeRozan's intersection was fairly amazing....1st usage (34.2%), 57th on/off (-5.0 ). And of the 5 players below him, 1 was a rookie (Hield) and 3 were backups (Crabbe, Bogdanovich, Crawford).

Post #657 » by **fatlever** » Fri May 12, 2017 1:39 am

So... what you're saying is the Raptors should trade Derozan and keep Lowry?

Mystical Apples · Post #658 » by **Mystical Apples** » Fri May 12, 2017 2:18 am

fatlever wrote:So... what you're saying is the Raptors should trade Derozan and keep Lowry?

Hey you might be onto something. I might explore that further.

Seriously though, it's just the latest in a running commentary about the perception-reality gap between overt busy work and basketball subtleties that matter.

The same applies to Drummond's empty rebounding, Biyombo's alleged defensive prowess, and Rondo's assist numbers

Mystical Apples · Post #659 » by **Mystical Apples** » Fri May 12, 2017 2:51 am

You couldn't even script the bottom-right and top-left players. If screening below 1800 minutes and including meh on/off's for awful teams where additive value should be easy.....

Bottom right: DeRozan, Crawford, Wade, Jeff Green, Parker, Barnes, Wiggins, Anthony, Hield

Top-left: Draymond, Roberson, MKG, Porter, Iggy, Tucker, Crowder

Meanwhile the Spurs keep Spuring for mysterious, abstract reasons.

Post #660 » by **fatlever** » Fri May 12, 2017 3:18 am

Mystical Apples wrote:You couldn't even script the bottom-right and top-left players. If screening below 1800 minutes and including meh on/off's for awful teams where additive value should be easy.....

Bottom right: DeRozan, Crawford, Wade, Jeff Green, Parker, Barnes, Wiggins, Anthony, Hield

Top-left: Draymond, Roberson, MKG, Porter, Iggy, Tucker, Crowder

Meanwhile the Spurs keep Spuring for mysterious, abstract reasons.

Would be interesting to watch a game between the bottom right and the top left.