Defense wins Championships?
Posted: Fri Jan 24, 2014 2:02 am
I've been reading an enjoyable book entitled Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports are Played And Games are Won by Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim and one chapter seemed to confirm a large reason why I'm not happy with the Bobcats' current roster and direction (could be A priori bias, you tell me).
In the chapter entitled "Offense Wins Championships, Too" the authors make it abundantly clear that although the axiom is "Defense wins championships" and every player is always quick to credit defense for their team's success, the stats argue that it's a stalemate across all major professional sports.
On the NBA in particular:
Now let's look at the Bobcats in terms of offense and defense. Currently, next to last in effective Field Goal percentage at 46.5%. So, pretty terrible on offense. Our opponent's effective FG% is 49.2%, that's good enough for 12th best. Not too shabby. This shouldn't come to anyone's surprise, right?
Kemba: Competent to good defender despite his size.
Hendo: Solid overall.
MKG: Defensive stud.
Taylor: Was a good defender.
McBob: Average but not a terrible liability thanks to his IQ.
Bismack: Borderline stud (if his short minutes are any indication).
Tolliver: Decent,similar boat as McBob.
Adrien: Competent to good despite his size.
Sessions: Not good
Pargo: Not good
CDR: Eh.
Jefferson: Terrible.
Gordon: Hopeless.
Zeller: Eh, could be worse. Potential is there.
There are way more good defensive players than there are good offensive players. Our good offensive players are: Jefferson, usually Kemba, sometimes Hendo. Everyone else, it's a crapshoot. Also, most of our good defensive players are young or just entering their prime. Our coach has a reputation for being a defense minded coach (12th best in the NBA speaks to that). So we are way closer to being an elite defensive team than we are an elite offensive team. And if it's one or the other to be successful in the NBA, does our roster/direction really make sense? Is a team headlined by Al Jefferson the right way to go about this? Or are we so desperate for a respectable offense that we are willing to sacrifice our chances of an elite defense and thus postseason glory?
Discuss.
In the chapter entitled "Offense Wins Championships, Too" the authors make it abundantly clear that although the axiom is "Defense wins championships" and every player is always quick to credit defense for their team's success, the stats argue that it's a stalemate across all major professional sports.
But the bottom line is this: Defense is no more important than offense. It's not defense that wins championships. In virtually every sport, you need either a stellar offense or a stellar defense, and having both is even better. Instead of coming with the "defense wins championships" cliche, a brutally honest coach might more aptly, if less inspirationally, say: "Defense is less sexy and more essential than offense. But I urge it, anyway."
On the NBA in particular:
Of the 64 NBA championships from 1947 to 2010, the league's best defensive teams during the regular season have won nine titles and the best offensive teams have won seven. That's pretty even. In the playoffs, the better defensive teams win 54.4 percent of the time and the better offensive teams win 54.8 percent of the time--almost dead even. Among 50,000 or so regular season games, the better defensive teams win no more often than the better offensive teams.
Now let's look at the Bobcats in terms of offense and defense. Currently, next to last in effective Field Goal percentage at 46.5%. So, pretty terrible on offense. Our opponent's effective FG% is 49.2%, that's good enough for 12th best. Not too shabby. This shouldn't come to anyone's surprise, right?
Kemba: Competent to good defender despite his size.
Hendo: Solid overall.
MKG: Defensive stud.
Taylor: Was a good defender.
McBob: Average but not a terrible liability thanks to his IQ.
Bismack: Borderline stud (if his short minutes are any indication).
Tolliver: Decent,similar boat as McBob.
Adrien: Competent to good despite his size.
Sessions: Not good
Pargo: Not good
CDR: Eh.
Jefferson: Terrible.
Gordon: Hopeless.
Zeller: Eh, could be worse. Potential is there.
There are way more good defensive players than there are good offensive players. Our good offensive players are: Jefferson, usually Kemba, sometimes Hendo. Everyone else, it's a crapshoot. Also, most of our good defensive players are young or just entering their prime. Our coach has a reputation for being a defense minded coach (12th best in the NBA speaks to that). So we are way closer to being an elite defensive team than we are an elite offensive team. And if it's one or the other to be successful in the NBA, does our roster/direction really make sense? Is a team headlined by Al Jefferson the right way to go about this? Or are we so desperate for a respectable offense that we are willing to sacrifice our chances of an elite defense and thus postseason glory?
Discuss.