Interesting Article About Salary Increases After New TV Deal
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 8:53 pm
http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/a-layman-s-guide-to-the-coming-nba-salary-cap-apocalypse
There's the article, but here are potential scenarios of the new TV deal. This stuff really fascinates me.
Word of warning: There's a lot of rough speculation going on here, but I think it's mostly reasonable.
One option: A more immediate increase in salaries starting in the 2016 offseason. Salary cap essentially jumps by 33%, and then increases steadily at $4M per year.
that means just about every team in the league is going to have stupid amounts of cap space in 2016. Max contracts are going to be close to $30M, and any player on what is considered to be a decent contract right now, is going to be an incredible bargain under the new caps.
Take our current core at their contracts or likely market value in 2016/whenever they're eligible for new deals:
Lance is under contract for $9M
MKG at $9M (being generous to him)
Kemba at $14M (more on this later)
Big Al at $18M (poised for a huge payday next summer)
Vonleh, Zeller, PJ, our 2015 1st for ~$14M total of rookie contracts (very rough estimate)
Bismack at $5M
Even with that much on the books, we could possibly have $19 MILLION in cap space, which in the new CBA would equate to almost as much as what we had this summer. That's in 2016, by which time, we've had two (hopefully deep) runs into the playoffs, and are likely approaching the prime of the majority of the core that year, despite taking up about 75% of the salary cap set for the following year.
This TV deal stuff could get really interesting, and we should be keeping our eyes on this, as we could benefit immensely from this situation. The trick is going to be getting as many of our players to sign long extensions with this current cap still in place before the market balloons, even if they seem like overpays right now. Signing Kemba to a 5 year, $70 million extension might seem crazy right now, but $14M/yr in the new CBA is going to feel like nothing. That contract would come off the books in 2019-20, when the cap could be $90M-$100M. That has the same impact in the next CBA as the same deal Lance Stephenson just signed in this CBA. Lance signed for 14% of the salary cap. $14M in a $100M cap is also, 14%.
It's going to sound weird, but after reading this article, Gordon Hayward's contract would have been a very savvy move by Rich Cho had Utah not matched. Players worse than Hayward will be signing similar deals in a couple seasons. There's a reason we're seeing a lot of players, some big names like Lebron and Wade, signing two-year contracts this summer- because any halfway reasonable contract signed in this CBA is a significantly cheaper one than one signed in the new CBA.
There's the article, but here are potential scenarios of the new TV deal. This stuff really fascinates me.
Word of warning: There's a lot of rough speculation going on here, but I think it's mostly reasonable.
One option: A more immediate increase in salaries starting in the 2016 offseason. Salary cap essentially jumps by 33%, and then increases steadily at $4M per year.
that means just about every team in the league is going to have stupid amounts of cap space in 2016. Max contracts are going to be close to $30M, and any player on what is considered to be a decent contract right now, is going to be an incredible bargain under the new caps.
Take our current core at their contracts or likely market value in 2016/whenever they're eligible for new deals:
Lance is under contract for $9M
MKG at $9M (being generous to him)
Kemba at $14M (more on this later)
Big Al at $18M (poised for a huge payday next summer)
Vonleh, Zeller, PJ, our 2015 1st for ~$14M total of rookie contracts (very rough estimate)
Bismack at $5M
Even with that much on the books, we could possibly have $19 MILLION in cap space, which in the new CBA would equate to almost as much as what we had this summer. That's in 2016, by which time, we've had two (hopefully deep) runs into the playoffs, and are likely approaching the prime of the majority of the core that year, despite taking up about 75% of the salary cap set for the following year.
This TV deal stuff could get really interesting, and we should be keeping our eyes on this, as we could benefit immensely from this situation. The trick is going to be getting as many of our players to sign long extensions with this current cap still in place before the market balloons, even if they seem like overpays right now. Signing Kemba to a 5 year, $70 million extension might seem crazy right now, but $14M/yr in the new CBA is going to feel like nothing. That contract would come off the books in 2019-20, when the cap could be $90M-$100M. That has the same impact in the next CBA as the same deal Lance Stephenson just signed in this CBA. Lance signed for 14% of the salary cap. $14M in a $100M cap is also, 14%.
It's going to sound weird, but after reading this article, Gordon Hayward's contract would have been a very savvy move by Rich Cho had Utah not matched. Players worse than Hayward will be signing similar deals in a couple seasons. There's a reason we're seeing a lot of players, some big names like Lebron and Wade, signing two-year contracts this summer- because any halfway reasonable contract signed in this CBA is a significantly cheaper one than one signed in the new CBA.
