1) Cleveland Cavaliers - They have Lebron. Enough said. Regardless of whether Wiggins, Kevin Love, or someone else is playing alongside Lebron and Irving, Lebron is going to be Lebron, and he's head and shoulders above everyone else in the Eastern Conference, plus he does have quite a bit of talent around him. I expect three or four teams in the West to be much better than them, but they're tops in the East.
2) Chicago Bulls - I think this is the year Rose finally has something resembling a bounce-back season, and their roster is loaded. Definitely fall to 5th or 6th if Rose gets hurt again though. As of now, I believe Aaron Brooks is their only backup PG. Chicago and Cleveland are the clear top 2 and seeds 3-7 are a pretty tight race.
3) Charlotte Hornets - The pieces are finally coming together. We have three guys that could conceivably be in All-Star consideration, two defensive stoppers on the wings, a young and growing roster, and top-notch coach to put it all together. This seems high, but after winning 43 last season, this roster can get 50 wins if healthy.
4) Toronto Raptors - They're guaranteed 4th for winning their division because their division is ass. I'd put them as the sixth or seventh best team in the conference. A full season without Rudy Gay will be good for them, as will another year of developing Valanciunas, Ross, and Derozan. A ton rides on whether Lowry (their best player) can stay healthy and productive.
5) Washington Wizards - They'll be neck-and-neck with Charlotte all season and the race for the 3-seed is going to be a good one. Another year of experience for Wall and Beal will help, and the addition of Pierce should certainly help them. Worried about Nene though. He isn't getting younger or healthier and they lost depth behind him. Who thought Washington and Charlotte would be racing for the division title?
6) Indiana Pacers - They took a major step back by replacing Lance Stephenson before he even signed elsewhere. They overpaid CJ Miles and fixed exactly zero of last season's problems. If Hibbert can't pull himself together, and George Hill can't make adjustments to his game without a playmaker next to him, Indy could even find themselves lower than this.
7) Miami Heat - I was tempted to put them at 6, but then I remembered just how unreliable Lebron's replacement Luol Deng was. Wade and Deng have no backups worth a second glance, both have significant concerns about age and durability, and then they still don't have a legit starter at PG or C. If Wade plays this season like he played in the Finals, Miami doesn't even make the playoffs. This was a disastrous offseason.
8) Atlanta Hawks - There's a major drop-off here as I think all remaining teams will be well below .500, and I think ATL, Detroit, Brooklyn, and possibly New York or Boston can fight for this spot. ATL needs Horford to come back strong though. If they trade to sign Bledsoe or something, they can move up a few spots too, but I think Horford/Millsap/Korver/Teague is strong enough to beat any remaining teams out of the playoffs.
9) Detroit - SVG is going to make this team competitive, but unless Smith and Jennings are moved or drastically alter their playing styles, they will be the undoing of the Pistons. There's still nowhere near enough spacing to play Van Gundy ball around Drummond anyhow.
10) Brooklyn - I wouldn't rule them out of the playoffs, but given the recent health of Lopez, Williams, and Garnett, I can't put them any higher than this. They'll stay afloat but I think they ultimately miss out.
11) New York - Melo coming back is definitely a load off their mind, but this team got worse in terms of talent than last season. New York better have a plan for 2015. Melo would have to score 35 a game if they wanted a chance at the playoffs. Maybe Shumpert and Hardaway play up their trade value to return a second star next to Melo?
12) Boston - I think Rondo and Green are traded mid-season and Boston rides some marginal talent and young guys to a bad finish well below 30 wins. Not really thrilled about any of their draft picks over the last couple years outside of James Young either.
13) Milwaukee - Parker and Giannis along with Knight, Sanders, and Henson isn't actually a terrible starting five, but they're too young to compete and there's nothing but Middleton behind them. They'll win some games, but not a lot.
14) Orlando - It's going to be... rough. They took another step back by trading Afflalo for nothing and then blowing a perfect chance to pair Vucevic with a two way stud in Vonleh or even Randle and they've probably got the worst-shooting starting five that I've even seen with Vuc/Aaron Gordon/Harris/Dipo/Payton. Then there's Ben Gordon.
15) Philly - They are in the midst of tanking harder than any team I've even seen. They tied the longest losing streak in NBA history by playing MCW, Thaddeus Young, and D-Leaguers post-All-Star break- now they will have an entire season playing MCW, Young, Noel, and D-Leaguers while using two lottery picks to draft an injured center that may not play, and a Euro that definitely won't play.
They will exceed expectations by winning 12 games IMO.