RealGM

For those if you that have some free time today (not me unfortunately), I'd love to see some stats about our horrific 4th quarters for this year. Lets get some good stats posted in this thread to fuel some discussion.

We are ranked 28th in the NBA in average 4th quarter margin with a -2.8, only in front of the Sixers & Celtics

We are ranked 29th in the NBA in 4th quarter points per game with 22.3 points, only in front of the Sixers

We are ranked 20th in the NBA in 4th quarter points allowed with 25.0 points

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/4t ... s-per-game

Good thread fats because this is the biggest big picture issue with this team.

I expected us to have a more respectable average margin through 3 quarters, but we have the fifth worst in the league. (Source - kudos to MKIA for linking that site, good stuff there and I had never heard of it) Maybe that's influenced a bit by the blowouts we've had, but expected that it might actually be a positive number.

I tend to be more accepting of Al's role on this team than most, but I really do think there is something to be said for pulling him down the stretch, running Biz and Cody and attacking the basket either off of screens or with Cody going at opposing bigs. I feel like there are three benefits to that approach: (1) we're likely to be at least as efficient in scoring by attacking the basket than we have been anyway in the fourth (i.e., can't get any worse), (2) we get the bonus of increasing the likelihood of getting FT's over what we might get by feeding Al in the post or having Kemba take iso jumpers, and (3) our defense would almost certainly improve.

I was actually planning on doing a deep dive into the numbers when I get home tonight. If no one beats me to it I'll start collecting data and see what I can find.

MKIA with a good start on that link.

It would be nice if we had a pinned thread at the top of the board that just lists good stat sites. I use bbref, 82games, NBA stats site and vorped pretty exclusively but I know there have to be other handy references out there.

4th quarter scoring for every game

Bucks: CHA 32, MIL 17
Grizz #1: CHA 23, Griz, 20
Knicks #1: CHA 13, NY 17
Pelican: CHA 26, NO 27
Miami #1: CHA 24, MIA 27
Hawks #1: CHA 27, ATL 19
Lakers: CHA 28, LAL 31
Portland #1: CHA 15, POR 27
Suns #1: CHA 29, PHX 20
GS #1: CHA 19, GS 16
DAL: 19 to 19
Pacers: CHA 20, IND 23
Magic:CHA 21, ORL 41
Miami #2: CHA 21, MIA 27
Clippers: CHA 22, LAC 35
Portland #2: CHA 21, POR 26
GS #2: CHA 21, GS 32
Hawks #2: CHA 24, ATL 21
Bulls: CHA 24, CHI 30
Knicks #2: CHA 18, NY 33
Boston: CHA 23, BOS 21
Griz #2: CHA 20, MEM 23
Nets: CHA 28, BRK 29
Cavs: CHA 20, CLE 17
Suns #2: CHA 19, PHX 29


Our scoring

Below 20: 6 times
20-25: 13 times
25-30: 5 times
30+: 1 time

Their scoring

Below 20: 6
20-25: 6
25-30: 7
30+: 6

I'm going to go through the game logs and post the scores at the end of the 3rd quarter for all the games thus far. It looks like the 4th has been covered very well, and I think seeing where we stood at the end of the 3rd is very enlightening because it will either confirm or disprove the assumption most of us have (myself included) that Clifford is killing us late with these #spacing lineups. I'll post the W/L record if the games were only three periods NHL-style at the end of the list. (This paragraph was written before seeing the data)


Game 1: Milwaulkee 83 Charlotte 68 (Would be an L at the end of the 3rd, but we came back and won. 1st significant comeback)
Game 2: Memphis 51 Charlotte 45 (An L at the end of the 3rd, we closed the gap to a 2pt loss at end of 4th)
Game 3: New York 79 Charlotte 80 (Would be a 1pt W, ended up as a 3pt L)
Game 4: New Orleans 73 Charlotte 65 (An L at end of 3rd by 8pts, an L at end of 4th by 9pts)
Game 5: Miami 62 Charlotte 72 (A W at end of 3rd by 10pts, a W at end of 4th by 7pts)
Game 6: Atlanta 78 Charlotte 70 (An L at end of 3rd by 8pts, a W at end of 2OT thanks to Lance buzzer-beater by 3pts. 2nd significant comeback)
Game 7: LA Lakers 76 Charlotte 64 (L at end of 3rd by 12, thanks to a huge meltdown. An L at end of 4th by 15)
Game 8: Portland 75 Charlotte 85 (W at end of 3rd by 10pts, L at end of 4th by 2pts. First obvious 4th quarter choke)
Game 9: Phoenix 75 Charlotte 74 (L at end of 3rd by 1pt, W at end of 4th by 8pts. 3rd significant comeback)
Game 10: Golden State 96 Charlotte 68 (L at end of 3rd, L at end of 4th, both by blowout margins)
Game 11: Dallas 88 Charlotte 61 (L at end of 3rd, L at end of 4th, both by blowout margins)
Game 12: Indiana 65 Charlotte 59 (L at end of 3rd by 6 pts, L at end of 4th by 2pts)
Game 13: Orlando 64 Charlotte 79 (W at end of 3rd by 15pts, L at end of 4th by 5pts. 2nd obvious 4th quarter choke)
Game 14: Miami 67 Charlotte 72 (W at end of 3rd by 5pts, L at end of 4th by 1pts. Arguably the third 4th quarter choke)
Game 15: LA Clippers 78 Charlotte 70 (L at end of 3rd by 8pts, L at end of 4th by 21 pts)
Game 16: Portland 79 Charlotte 76 (L at end of 3rd by 3pts L at end of 4th by 8pts)
Game 17: Golden State 74 Charlotte 80 (W at end of 3rd by 6pts, L at end of 4th by 5pts. Arguably the 4th choke of season)
Game 18: Atlanta 84 Charlotte 51 (L at end of 3rd, L at end of 4th, both by blowout margins)
Game 19: Chicago 72 Charlotte 71 (L at end of 3rd by 1pt, L at end of 4th by 7pts)
Game 20: New York 69 Charlotte 85 (W at end of 3rd by 16pts, W at end of 4th by 1pt. I would include this as the 5th choke of the season in spite of the W)
Game 21: Boston 66 Charlotte 73 (W at end of 3rd by 7pts, W at end of 4th by 9pts)
Game 22: Memphis 69 Charlotte 72 (W at end of 3rd by 3pts, L at end of 2OT by 6pts. Arguably the 6th choke, although I'm not sure I'd count it so badly as it was a one-possession lead)
Game 23: Brooklyn 85 Charlotte 59 (L at end of 3rd, L at end of 4th, both blowout margins)
Game 24: Cleveland 80 Charlotte 68 (L at end of 3rd by 12pts, L at end of 4th by 9pts)
Game 25: Phoenix 83 Charlotte 87 (W at end of 3rd by 4pts, L at end of 4th by 5pts. Arguably the 7th choke of the season, I count it as the 6th "true" choke job since it was a 9pt swing)


So here's the breakdown:

Actual Record: 6-19 (4.5 games out of 8th seed)
Record in NHL-Style 3 Period League: 10-15 (0.5 games out of 8th seed)

Comeback wins: 3
Losses with a lead entering 3rd quarter: 8
Egregious losses (10pt+ swings) when leading entering 4th quarter: 4 ( and 2 additional 9pt swings)

Analysis/Opinion: The data suggests that with better 4th quarter execution has not taken us from playoff team to lottery team. It has however taken us from realistic contender for the 7/8 seeds to being just as close to the league's worst record as the final playoff spots. Some of that is "lol, Leastern Conference", of course. You have to go all the way up to the 6th seed before anyone even reaches .500. What is most troubling is that four of our losses have been significant point swings (as defined by 10pts), and 2 others are just 1pt beneath that arbitrary line. If we narrow it down to games where we had a 10pt+ lead at the end of the 3rd quarter there is only one instance where we did not piss away that lead. The other three times we either lost, or won by a single point. Although it is a small sample size it does indicate the belief that we "turtle" with big leads is not completely unjustified.

In the end the data wasn't as bad as I thought (I expected us to be .500 or very close to it) nor did it necessarily disprove the critics (we definitely piss away big leads in the rare cases we have them). Three of our losses were also comebacks. Can you effing imagine if we lost those games? We'd be just 0.5 games above the Sixers! Good lord, I'm going to get a drink...

So our win total would only improve by four games if we cut out fourth quarter performances. I think that's surprising.

yosemiteben wrote:So our win total would only improve by four games if we cut out fourth quarter performances. I think that's surprising.

I don't think it's that surprising.

yosemiteben wrote:So our win total would only improve by four games if we cut out fourth quarter performances. I think that's surprising.

I don't think its too surprising. I did something in the fun with stats page on the fourth quarters and how many leads we have blown compared to last year. It was basically a complete 180 to how we faired in the 4th compared to this year, in the record after leading after the 3rd qtr category.

Law of averages tends to catch up to average basketball teams. We had no business having an absurd win percentage after the 4th quarter last year. It's catching up to us.

People need to start realizing that last year was an anomaly. We shouldn't have been that good last year. Factor in how bad the East was last year and some of the bad teams are actually getting better. Give us a .500 record in the games we lead going into the 4th and that really should only be off by a few games of what our actual record should be.

*****EDIT: now that I remember correctly the stat I did was record in close games(6points or less). So it wasn't fourth quarter but it overlaps in a large part I would assume. So even though I mixed up what I thought I studied, it doesn't change my opinion. The outcome would still be relatively the same.

What about 4th quarter leads? I know we've blown more than 4 fourth quarter leads.

I know we are not very good. Have we even soundly defeated an opponent yet?

Other posts in this covered 85% of what I was considering doing on this topic when it came to team stats. If I get the motivation I will put in the time to get the other 15%, but prob not worth it. I decided anyways to do a quick little stat search based on our players in the 4th compared to how they played in the other three quarters. If you click the screenshot you can see the whole spreadsheet I did. The difference is how much better or worse they did in the 4th quarter compared to the other 3. The total stats (pts, rebs, asts, etc) were done by dividing the first 3 quarters stat total and subtracting it from the 4th quarter stat.

I'll let everyone else kind of deduce what they think from the stats, but a few of my thoughts on it.

-Our best NRTG Diff player, MKG, plays a minute less than he does in the other 3 quarters, Kemba is the only player who plays less and he has the 2nd to worst NRTG Diff. You would think a guy that plays that well would play more in close games and not be subbed out.

-Bismack's difference in a lot of stats is just astounding

- Nobody is better on offense in the 4th quarter

- Only three are better on defense, not surprisingly led by MKG

- Zeller shoots way above his norm in the 4th. 15.4% better. MKG surprisingly 2nd.

- Our 3 best three point "shooters" (Neal, Roberts, and Hairston) are awful in the 4th on threes. (-15.7%, -13.9%, and -4.7% respectively). Kemba and Gerald the only players that shoot the 3 better in the 4th.

- Neal scores 2.6 more than normal in the 4th which is tops on the team. The problem is he shoots 6.9% worse from the field and 15.7% worse from three. So he is taking up too many possessions with inefficient shots in the 4th it seems. Tops on turnovers too, but that is more than likely because of the extra minutes.

- Only two have a better +/- which is MKG and Hendo same as NRTG.

-I think Kemba's stats are skewed. I think that is why he has the 2nd worst NRTG. It more comes from his DRTG. I think that has to do with playing mostly with a lot of good defensive players (MKG and Hendo) in the first three quarters and then playing with Roberts and Neal and so on in the 4th which just drags his DRTG down a lot.

I'll leave my thoughts at that if anyone has any else.

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