5 Questions for the Hornets
Posted: Fri Jul 10, 2015 1:30 pm
So Bonnell does this every year, and I decided to get the jump on him and do one first.
How are the Hornets going to incorporate their new #spacing options?
Even if you generously consider Kemba a good spacing option, the rest of last year’s starters weren’t. Henderson shot one or two threes most games, but was clearly more comfortable in the mid-range and on drives. MKG’s shot and range did improve, but there was obviously more work to do. Zeller reportedly ended the year talking about taking corner 3s in his exit interview, but never really displayed that range in game. Al has a decent mid-range game, but hasn’t used it since he was in Utah, instead he focuses on his much more efficient post-up game here in Charlotte. Some of the bench – Brian Roberts, PJ Hairston, Troy Daniels, and Marvin Williams – had decent range, but none of them really showed the talent or consistency on both ends of the court that might have led to them becoming starters or playing more significant minutes.
So far this summer Batum has replaced Henderson and shooting in general has been improved on players that are tentatively slated to be coming off the bench. Jeremy Lin and Jeremy Lamb are both reasonable shooter. Spencer Hawes has a nice ranged touch for a big man. And the team (in)famously drafted Frank Kaminsky, their 3rd PF in as many years, because of his shooting, BBIQ, and general readiness to play.
Realistically this team has more talent and more shooters than it’s ever had in recent years. However if the starting lineup is only changed by the addition of Batum in place of Henderson, and Clifford continues his 5 out 5 in rotations from last year, then the team is likely to continue to experience collapsing defenses and a resulting poor offense.
There are many ways the team might work around this. The rotations could be staggered and one or two guys like Lin, Lamb, or Hawes could be brought in early to open things up. Another starting spot might be opened – for example Lamb might start, Batum moved to SF, and MKG benched. Kaminsky might be more ready than anyone expects and earn a starting spot at some point this year. Injuries will play a role as well. If Al, Zeller, or MKG miss time this year the person replacing them in the lineup will be shooter. That alone might be enough.
Still it looks like the best answers nearly all involve MKG, Zeller, or Al playing less … or showing significant improvements.
Will the team continue to have a top tier defense?
The Hornets have lost both Henderson and Biyombo who both had a relatively large impact on the team’s overall defense. Batum appears to have the tools to replace Henderson, but has spent more time playing SF or even PF than SG. It remains to be seen if he can contain the league’s speedy guards on a consistent basis. However the team currently has no one to take on Biyombo’s role as a rim protector. Clifford’s defensive scheme does already seem to compensate for weak interior defense, by focusing on strong initial premier defense. Two years ago, with McRoberts guiding the team on the floor it worked. Last year the Hornets did OK, but were clearly hurt more by inside penetration, especially when Biyombo wasn’t playing. Players like Maxiell and Zeller both helped more than some expected, but it looked like teams were either figuring out how to beat the Hornets scheme or the mix of players just wasn’t doing as well.
If the defense rebounds this year and goes back to be top tier, the additional offensive firepower will make a huge difference in wins. However if it drops off again, then that firepower going to be needed to just make up the difference. Either way defense will have a huge impact on the win/loss totals for this team.
Does Clifford’s offense really work the way he thinks it does in today’s NBA?
Clifford’s offense is clearly based on the 4 out 1 in scheme from his time in Orlando before they lost Dwight Howard. For the past two years he’s tried to use it as much as possible, but the Hornet’s roster did not really have the kinds of players needed to implement it fully. What we ended up with was an ugly “Alfense” that relied on Al’s post-up game to create theoretical opportunities for spacing rather than the reverse. Now the team has the shooters and there has already been a mixture of talk about the “basic offense not changing” and “less focus on Al” … both of which make perfect sense in that context.
However Orlando’s success came before most teams fully appreciated the power of the 3 point shot and defended it very differently. At that time most teams were content to let opposing perimeter oriented teams “live and die” by the 3 point shot, figuring that luck would be against the shot most nights. Tom Thibodeau’s defensive principles had not yet spread though the league. Similarly big men were more dominant and there were many fewer teams that dared to go small. In short it was a different time.
The good news is that analytics does supports the general idea of spacing the floor. Similarly teams with a strong inside game were able to make smaller teams pay frequently. Having both options does seem like a very logically defensible offensive plan. That said, two years of one of the worst offenses in the league has left many people wondering if the problem was really personnel, coaching, or the offense itself. This year we will get to find out and it should be a very interesting experiment.
Do the Hornets really have a franchise player?
Al, Kemba, and MKG have all gotten nods at one point or another. Prior to his trade many fans had high hopes about Vonleh’s long term prospects in spite of him not playing much last year. Still no one player on this roster has definitively proved that they are a top tier NBA talent. All of them still have outstanding question marks at the very least. That’s one reason that many were upset about drafting Kaminsky over Winslow. There was a perception that Winslow had the talent to become an NBA star, while Kaminsky had a much lower ceiling.
Regardless soon we are going to get to see if Al come into camp in shape this year ready to reclaim his 2013-14 form. We get to see what Kemba can do running the most talented NBA team he’s ever been on. We will find out if MKG’s shot has kept improving and if he’s on trajectory to become a great two way player. But most of all we will see more clearly than ever if any of these guys are really the kind of player that can be the focal point of a good NBA team or not.
Especially if Kemba, MKG, or someone like Frank really blows up the Hornets will be on a much clearer path going forward, especially since these guys are either still on rookie contracts or have been extended long term. If not we have to hope that the Atlanta model wasn’t really a fluke and that you can build a really good NBA team without a transcendent star or that Cho (or his successor) can score on non-lottery draft picks.
Is the team’s success still sustainable?
Prior to this year Cho preached a message of “sustainable success.” The basic idea was to tear down the old treadmill team. Build first through the draft and then with trades and key free agent signings. But all the while continually refreshing the team’s roster with young, cheap talent via the draft so that the team would be able to win over long time periods, and not be a one year wonder or a treadmill. To that end Cho refused to trade his draft pick and was willing to take on guys like Ben Gordon in exchange for other team’s picks.
The first real deviation from that plan was Cliff. As a coach he clearly valued winning now more than development of young guys. He really pushed all of the young guys to grow, but wasn’t willing to let them make mistakes on the court doing it. Famously, as it looked like the team was going to make the playoffs in 2014 he told the players that he was done giving minutes to guys based on potential and that they would have to earn their time from that point forward. The message was good in terms of player accountability but the team’s young player development was never the same afterwards.
This year Cho traded the #9 pick from last year, Noah Vonleh, for a veteran on an expiring contract. Then he let his very first Charlotte draft pick, Biyombo, walk. The team still has plenty of young guys, but this was a clear departure from previous trades & free agent negotiations. It signaled a clear commitment to winning now over sustainability. As mentioned above, the team assembled so far for this year looks really solid and is more balanced, talented, and has more shooters than we’ve seen here in Charlotte for a long time.
However next year Bantum, Jefferson, Williams, Lamb, and possibly even MKG could all be free agents. What they will have is cap space, and a lot of it. Every team will have some, of course, due to the cap growth, but the Hornets will have more than most. Charlotte does not have a great history of luring free agents, but this year we’ve seen a few guys pick smaller cities to be in winning situations. So that’s the gamble here. This team has to win now if they want to be able to resign guys or attract some of the better names that will be shopping next year.
Cho and the team are all in at this point. If the team is really good this year and they are able to have success in next year’s free agency, then the future is bright. If free agency next year doesn’t pan out for whatever reason next year, then the team is going to be in a rough spot. Not all of this is Cho’s fault. The team had planned on having talented young guys and cap space next year for a long time … but didn’t anticipate that EVERY other team would have it too. I suspect that Cho probably didn’t think that Cliff would get the team to the playoffs in 2014, but that he would in 2015 & 2016 in the run up to free agency. Things didn’t work out quite the way he planned, so he’s having to adapt on the fly … we just have to hope that it all works out now.
How are the Hornets going to incorporate their new #spacing options?
Even if you generously consider Kemba a good spacing option, the rest of last year’s starters weren’t. Henderson shot one or two threes most games, but was clearly more comfortable in the mid-range and on drives. MKG’s shot and range did improve, but there was obviously more work to do. Zeller reportedly ended the year talking about taking corner 3s in his exit interview, but never really displayed that range in game. Al has a decent mid-range game, but hasn’t used it since he was in Utah, instead he focuses on his much more efficient post-up game here in Charlotte. Some of the bench – Brian Roberts, PJ Hairston, Troy Daniels, and Marvin Williams – had decent range, but none of them really showed the talent or consistency on both ends of the court that might have led to them becoming starters or playing more significant minutes.
So far this summer Batum has replaced Henderson and shooting in general has been improved on players that are tentatively slated to be coming off the bench. Jeremy Lin and Jeremy Lamb are both reasonable shooter. Spencer Hawes has a nice ranged touch for a big man. And the team (in)famously drafted Frank Kaminsky, their 3rd PF in as many years, because of his shooting, BBIQ, and general readiness to play.
Realistically this team has more talent and more shooters than it’s ever had in recent years. However if the starting lineup is only changed by the addition of Batum in place of Henderson, and Clifford continues his 5 out 5 in rotations from last year, then the team is likely to continue to experience collapsing defenses and a resulting poor offense.
There are many ways the team might work around this. The rotations could be staggered and one or two guys like Lin, Lamb, or Hawes could be brought in early to open things up. Another starting spot might be opened – for example Lamb might start, Batum moved to SF, and MKG benched. Kaminsky might be more ready than anyone expects and earn a starting spot at some point this year. Injuries will play a role as well. If Al, Zeller, or MKG miss time this year the person replacing them in the lineup will be shooter. That alone might be enough.
Still it looks like the best answers nearly all involve MKG, Zeller, or Al playing less … or showing significant improvements.
Will the team continue to have a top tier defense?
The Hornets have lost both Henderson and Biyombo who both had a relatively large impact on the team’s overall defense. Batum appears to have the tools to replace Henderson, but has spent more time playing SF or even PF than SG. It remains to be seen if he can contain the league’s speedy guards on a consistent basis. However the team currently has no one to take on Biyombo’s role as a rim protector. Clifford’s defensive scheme does already seem to compensate for weak interior defense, by focusing on strong initial premier defense. Two years ago, with McRoberts guiding the team on the floor it worked. Last year the Hornets did OK, but were clearly hurt more by inside penetration, especially when Biyombo wasn’t playing. Players like Maxiell and Zeller both helped more than some expected, but it looked like teams were either figuring out how to beat the Hornets scheme or the mix of players just wasn’t doing as well.
If the defense rebounds this year and goes back to be top tier, the additional offensive firepower will make a huge difference in wins. However if it drops off again, then that firepower going to be needed to just make up the difference. Either way defense will have a huge impact on the win/loss totals for this team.
Does Clifford’s offense really work the way he thinks it does in today’s NBA?
Clifford’s offense is clearly based on the 4 out 1 in scheme from his time in Orlando before they lost Dwight Howard. For the past two years he’s tried to use it as much as possible, but the Hornet’s roster did not really have the kinds of players needed to implement it fully. What we ended up with was an ugly “Alfense” that relied on Al’s post-up game to create theoretical opportunities for spacing rather than the reverse. Now the team has the shooters and there has already been a mixture of talk about the “basic offense not changing” and “less focus on Al” … both of which make perfect sense in that context.
However Orlando’s success came before most teams fully appreciated the power of the 3 point shot and defended it very differently. At that time most teams were content to let opposing perimeter oriented teams “live and die” by the 3 point shot, figuring that luck would be against the shot most nights. Tom Thibodeau’s defensive principles had not yet spread though the league. Similarly big men were more dominant and there were many fewer teams that dared to go small. In short it was a different time.
The good news is that analytics does supports the general idea of spacing the floor. Similarly teams with a strong inside game were able to make smaller teams pay frequently. Having both options does seem like a very logically defensible offensive plan. That said, two years of one of the worst offenses in the league has left many people wondering if the problem was really personnel, coaching, or the offense itself. This year we will get to find out and it should be a very interesting experiment.
Do the Hornets really have a franchise player?
Al, Kemba, and MKG have all gotten nods at one point or another. Prior to his trade many fans had high hopes about Vonleh’s long term prospects in spite of him not playing much last year. Still no one player on this roster has definitively proved that they are a top tier NBA talent. All of them still have outstanding question marks at the very least. That’s one reason that many were upset about drafting Kaminsky over Winslow. There was a perception that Winslow had the talent to become an NBA star, while Kaminsky had a much lower ceiling.
Regardless soon we are going to get to see if Al come into camp in shape this year ready to reclaim his 2013-14 form. We get to see what Kemba can do running the most talented NBA team he’s ever been on. We will find out if MKG’s shot has kept improving and if he’s on trajectory to become a great two way player. But most of all we will see more clearly than ever if any of these guys are really the kind of player that can be the focal point of a good NBA team or not.
Especially if Kemba, MKG, or someone like Frank really blows up the Hornets will be on a much clearer path going forward, especially since these guys are either still on rookie contracts or have been extended long term. If not we have to hope that the Atlanta model wasn’t really a fluke and that you can build a really good NBA team without a transcendent star or that Cho (or his successor) can score on non-lottery draft picks.
Is the team’s success still sustainable?
Prior to this year Cho preached a message of “sustainable success.” The basic idea was to tear down the old treadmill team. Build first through the draft and then with trades and key free agent signings. But all the while continually refreshing the team’s roster with young, cheap talent via the draft so that the team would be able to win over long time periods, and not be a one year wonder or a treadmill. To that end Cho refused to trade his draft pick and was willing to take on guys like Ben Gordon in exchange for other team’s picks.
The first real deviation from that plan was Cliff. As a coach he clearly valued winning now more than development of young guys. He really pushed all of the young guys to grow, but wasn’t willing to let them make mistakes on the court doing it. Famously, as it looked like the team was going to make the playoffs in 2014 he told the players that he was done giving minutes to guys based on potential and that they would have to earn their time from that point forward. The message was good in terms of player accountability but the team’s young player development was never the same afterwards.
This year Cho traded the #9 pick from last year, Noah Vonleh, for a veteran on an expiring contract. Then he let his very first Charlotte draft pick, Biyombo, walk. The team still has plenty of young guys, but this was a clear departure from previous trades & free agent negotiations. It signaled a clear commitment to winning now over sustainability. As mentioned above, the team assembled so far for this year looks really solid and is more balanced, talented, and has more shooters than we’ve seen here in Charlotte for a long time.
However next year Bantum, Jefferson, Williams, Lamb, and possibly even MKG could all be free agents. What they will have is cap space, and a lot of it. Every team will have some, of course, due to the cap growth, but the Hornets will have more than most. Charlotte does not have a great history of luring free agents, but this year we’ve seen a few guys pick smaller cities to be in winning situations. So that’s the gamble here. This team has to win now if they want to be able to resign guys or attract some of the better names that will be shopping next year.
Cho and the team are all in at this point. If the team is really good this year and they are able to have success in next year’s free agency, then the future is bright. If free agency next year doesn’t pan out for whatever reason next year, then the team is going to be in a rough spot. Not all of this is Cho’s fault. The team had planned on having talented young guys and cap space next year for a long time … but didn’t anticipate that EVERY other team would have it too. I suspect that Cho probably didn’t think that Cliff would get the team to the playoffs in 2014, but that he would in 2015 & 2016 in the run up to free agency. Things didn’t work out quite the way he planned, so he’s having to adapt on the fly … we just have to hope that it all works out now.