Does MKG Sign An Extension?

[yosemiteben]

So October 31 is the deadline for MKG (also Lamb) to sign an extension with the Hornets. There are arguments for and against signing an extension now from both the team's and the player's perspective.

MKG could probably boost his value significantly if he (a) finally stays relatively healthy for a full season and (b) continues to expand his offensive game. However, if neither of those things happens, that should cap the amount of money he can expect. Either way, given the timing his extension should reflect the post-cap increase environment, so it's probably going to be a big number.

Curious to hear thoughts on the likelihood that he goes for the extension and what sort of contract folks would prefer and also think we'll actually see.

[BlackOutBuzz]

The real question is whether Lamb will accept the inevitable max extension coming his way.

[BlackOutBuzz]

In all seriousness, for MKG it makes more sense to wait a year. Walker and Reggie Jackson both got the same $48m offer, Jackson turned it down and got $80m a year later.

It makes sense for Charlotte to lock him down now, for the same reason.

[LofJ]

MKG is going to bet on himself having a big season, as he should. How well he plays (and how much) will determine the size of the contract offer he receives. There are too many variables affecting that to make an accurate prediction, especially when you consider how unpredictable this team usually is.

That said I sincerely hope he blows up and plays so well he pretty much forces us to offer him a 5 year max contract.

[Mystical Apples]

I think it makes sense for both parties to get a deal done, or will, but the big ? is how much. I'm high on MKG and if he continues his improvements + stays healthy, an offer sheet of 18-20 million annually is a possibility. Even a max sheet isn't out of the question if he shows the corner 3. So for Charlotte, getting him for 10% under the 18 would be the over/under IMO. 20% would tilt things in Charlotte's favor. A poison pill offer sheet is a possibility and would cripple the Hornets for 2 years and damage their FA aspirations.

For MKG, if he has a great year he could command a better salary in an inflated market. He could also feasibly get an OS for 2 years + player option and that would be a ginormous number (up to around 46 million for 2 years + option). But his risk is not getting an offer sheet and playing the next 2 years for around ~15 million total. And obviously , he could get hurt or not show the same improvements like he has in the past.

I hope they find a middle ground

[catch20two]

MKG would be wise to wait until the 2016 free agent implosion with the cap rise to cash in.

[yosemiteben]

MKG would be wise to wait until the 2016 free agent implosion with the cap rise to cash in.

Does he need to do that though? His extension wouldn't kick in until then anyway so it's not like his numbers have to fit under the current cap structure.

Think that only makes sense if he doesn't like the offer we give him.

[catch20two]

MKG would be wise to wait until the 2016 free agent implosion with the cap rise to cash in.

Does he need to do that though? His extension wouldn't kick in until then anyway so it's not like his numbers have to fit under the current cap structure.

Think that only makes sense if he doesn't like the offer we give him.

What do you think is a reasonable offer that he should like? Usually teams offer extensions because the value may go up in RFA. It's risky for both parties not to sign a extension but if MKG believe in his offensive improvement like I hope he do then he's gonna prolly be worth more than we'll offer this fall.

[yosemiteben]

What do you think is a reasonable offer that he should like?

Honestly I don't know. I can't see them offering a max, because there'd be no incentive to take the full risk on of him not performing well or getting injured.

I was thinking something like Kawhi Leonard got - 5 years, $90MM. That's obviously on the high end of reasonable.

[catch20two]

What do you think is a reasonable offer that he should like?

Honestly I don't know. I can't see them offering a max, because there'd be no incentive to take the full risk on of him not performing well or getting injured.

I was thinking something like Kawhi Leonard got - 5 years, $90MM. That's obviously on the high end of reasonable.

I thought that was the max minus the Derrick Rose all-star exception.

[yosemiteben]

What do you think is a reasonable offer that he should like?

Honestly I don't know. I can't see them offering a max, because there'd be no incentive to take the full risk on of him not performing well or getting injured.

I was thinking something like Kawhi Leonard got - 5 years, $90MM. That's obviously on the high end of reasonable.

I thought that was the max minus the Derrick Rose all-star exception.

It won't be for the 2016-17 season, when the extension would kick in. Max contracts are fixed to the cap, so when the cap goes up then the max contracts will too. The max for 0 - 6 year players for the 2015-16 season is a little over $16MM. If the cap goes up $20M like expected, a max deal in 2016-17 for that level of experience will be $20M.

[Mystical Apples]

What do you think is a reasonable offer that he should like?

Honestly I don't know. I can't see them offering a max, because there'd be no incentive to take the full risk on of him not performing well or getting injured.

I was thinking something like Kawhi Leonard got - 5 years, $90MM. That's obviously on the high end of reasonable.

Max contracts for his class the following year, 2017, could start closer to $27 million annually. As crazy as 2016 will be, 2017 will be worse. If he signs a deal like Kawhi that's around $18 million a year which would be close to a 25% discount to the 2016 max (including annual raises). And $18 million would be more than a 35% discount to the max of 2017.

I just tried to project how'll good he'll be in 2016 relative to players who were recently paid, and then translate the % to the future max. That's how I cam up with the $18-20 annual offer he may receive next year when everyone is flush with cash.

[Mystical Apples]

On a related note, I think that's why every team held onto their lotto picks like gold this year. With such a deep draft and the opportunity to lock these guys in until 2019/20, it would've been dumb to flip a value pick for a vet or rookie scale contract that'll turn into an inflation nightmare. I think teams are freaked by it.

[EwingSweatsALot]

Blackout, is there any difference for the cap if he signs an extension now vs waiting for the summer? Besides the obvious of betting on himself or is getting him for a more friendly deal.

I didn't know if there was any benefits to signing an extension over the RFA route.

I ask this because he will be a Hornet for the next 4-5 years no matter what happens with the contract. Just didn't know if there was any team or player benefit when it comes to extension or going to RFA.

[Braggins]

On a related note, I think that's why every team held onto their lotto picks like gold this year. With such a deep draft and the opportunity to lock these guys in until 2019/20, it would've been dumb to flip a value pick for a vet or rookie scale contract that'll turn into an inflation nightmare. I think teams are freaked by it.

Big reason why the Batum trade is so bad imo.

[yosemiteben]

On a related note, I think that's why every team held onto their lotto picks like gold this year. With such a deep draft and the opportunity to lock these guys in until 2019/20, it would've been dumb to flip a value pick for a vet or rookie scale contract that'll turn into an inflation nightmare. I think teams are freaked by it.

Big reason why the Batum trade is so bad imo.

I think we all would have been thrilled to net Batum in free agency, so I don't think that necessarily applies to MA's point - Batum isn't just some random vet like we would have gotten from Boston. If our FO is comfortable that he resigns, and he does in fact resign, that would completely flip this point into the point made in that article I posted that the 2016 class sucks and teams that made arrangements in advance are much better off than teams banking on using cap space in 2016.

[LofJ]

On a related note, I think that's why every team held onto their lotto picks like gold this year. With such a deep draft and the opportunity to lock these guys in until 2019/20, it would've been dumb to flip a value pick for a vet or rookie scale contract that'll turn into an inflation nightmare. I think teams are freaked by it.

Big reason why the Batum trade is so bad imo.

Not if we were planning on pursuing him in free agency regardless, getting his bird rights and having him play here for a year will give us a big leg up on the competition. If we lose him though, yeah...not a good look for us at all.

[BlackOutBuzz]

I was thinking something like Kawhi Leonard got - 5 years, $90MM. That's obviously on the high end of reasonable.

That's the max, or at least it was this year. We've already seen Lillard and Davis sign for obscene numbers based on early projections for next season's cap. They were also designated as the only players on their team that can receive 5-year extensions, and they cannot give out another for 6 years.

Based on next season's estimated cap of $89m (worth noting that this year's cap ended up being about $3m more than expected), we can estimate the max salary next season:

$89,000,000×(42.14÷44.74)*×25%=$20,956,974

*BRI calculation

Extrapolate that out to 5 years with 7.5% raises we can estimate Lillard's max deal at $120,502,598. Davis is eligible for more via the "Rose Rule." Technically so is Lillard, but it's unlikely he hits the benchmark.

Seems unlikely we'd give MKG the 5-year extension. So our options are a 4-year extension, or wait a year and sign him to a 5-year contract. Of course, the risk there is another team offering a big deal we'd have to match. The max extension we could offer over 4 years would be 4 years/$93,258,533.

Not that I'd advocate giving him that much, but that's just for perspective.

We've just gotta keep the cap increase in mind. Kemba got $48 million, the equivalent to that would be $61 million under next season's cap. I wouldn't blink at giving MKG $16m per like Draymond Green.

[Mystical Apples]

Leonard, Butler, Green, and Matthews will be the benchmark contracts for MKG. Starting salaries around 16 - 18. He's not their level and teams will adjust accordingly. But the interesting case is Matthews who left in FA. He'll be 29 years old before Jan 1 and coming of an achilles but signed a 4 year / $70 million deal. That's in today's dollar not inflation-adjusted 2016 or 2017

[Mystical Apples]

On a related note, I think that's why every team held onto their lotto picks like gold this year. With such a deep draft and the opportunity to lock these guys in until 2019/20, it would've been dumb to flip a value pick for a vet or rookie scale contract that'll turn into an inflation nightmare. I think teams are freaked by it.

Big reason why the Batum trade is so bad imo.

Not if we were planning on pursuing him in free agency regardless, getting his bird rights and having him play here for a year will give us a big leg up on the competition. If we lose him though, yeah...not a good look for us at all.

Batum was a good get for Charlotte. For a team rebuilding it was a gamble Portland took and it might pay off. FA's like Batum rarely leave so having his rights does hold value. Also, getting Kaminsky locked into 2015 rookie scale deal that runs through the inflation zone is value, esp if he's more ready right now. That's one less "NBA ready" FA agent they have to sign which will get pricey in 1-3 years. Adjusted for 2018 dollars, that could be close to a $10-15 million annual value over the nonsense Ainge was offering.