31.5 Wins. Over or under?

[Flip Murray]

So the Vegas over/under win totals just came out at my book, and they have the Hornets listed at 31.5 wins. Do you think we go over or under and why?

[JDR720]

It think it will be pretty close, we added some shooting and passing which will help the offense but none of the shooters we added are much above average except Frank who im not expecting much from this year. Just being average is a huge improvement from last season, we should be at least a watchable offense.

On the other end of the court, im pretty iffy. We lost MKG for the season, and we all know how bad we play without him over the past couple seasons. We lost Bismacks rim protection & rebounding too which will hurt at least a little, outside of Cody are any of our bigs even average on defense? and outside of Al is any of them above average rebounders?

I think we're set up similar to the Celtics of last season. Perimeter dominated offense with guards and stretch bigs that can pass well, not much rim protection or offensive rebounding and while we shoot a lot of threes we will make them at an average to below average %.

[fatlever]

I'd take over. My initial guess is about 35 wins.

[Benjamin Linus]

Over. I had us at 42 wins before MKG went out, now I probably have us around 40 or so.

There's usually a bigger drop off when MKG goes out, but I don't think it will drag us down as much this year. In the past, we were an awful team on offense that relied on good defense, rebounding, and hustle so whenever MKG went out, we took a massive hit in the few areas we were good at. At least this year, we'll have more offensive talent, depth and versatility to fall back on in the absence of MKG.

Besides, they have their sights on the playoffs. I think if they struggle in the first half of the season, they'll make some win-now moves for a playoff push. Outside of a major injury bug, I don't see them going under.

[EwingSweatsALot]

Over. I don't feel that confident about it though. My confidence has peaked with how we have played recently and the offensive pieces we have put together.

We have put together a load of shooters, but my concern is that they are just above average and not good. I expect us to score a lot but get zero stops when it matters.

I think low 30s is accurate. Ceiling is 35 or so.

[Reflexx]

I'm expecting around 44.

[SWedd523]

Before MKG went down, I'd have bet my wife that we'd win well over 31.5. Without him... I'm not very confident.

Will probably be more fun to watch than in previous years, but the lack of defense on the wings is going to hurt

[fatlever]

You married now? Congrats.

[Flip Murray]

Gun to my head I would go with over. We won 33 last year and I think at the most basic level there are really two competing considerations to take into account. The first is the fact that I believe we underachieved last year, especially coming off a 43 win season the year before. The other is the loss of MKG, where it's been proven over a three year sample size that the Hornets play worse without him. It really comes down to how much weight you want to give those two factors relative to each other.

If Jefferson is in tip top shape I think we get this over, and are more like the Hornets (Cats) of two years ago rather than the abomination of last season. You add to that the fact that we've added some playmakers/passers/shooters, and our ball movement should certainly improve. A lot of people seem to be overlooking the fact that we added Batum, probably because he is coming off such a bad season, but if he can replace a decent percentage of MKG's defense then we are looking quite good to hit the over.

In terms of actual wins and losses, I don't really foresee any marked change resulting from the loss of Biyombo. I'm not sure, and I know some of you guys who are more in tune with the advanced stats might call me out on this, that he had any major effect in terms of wins/losses last year. At least not enough for it to really move a Vegas line. I'm fully aware the rim protection will be worse, but I think that will be offset by offensive improvements. I actually think the more interesting loss on that end that people aren't talking about is Hendo. Hendo was a very capable wing defender that is going to be missed on that end more than people expect. Lamb looks to have some defensive tools but obviously he's unproven.

JDR made a super interesting comparison between this team and last season's Celtics. I'm going to look into that more but that's a really nice observation. Coaching was definitely a factor with the Celtics though, and I think the jury is still out on Cliff.

If you want to talk about "softs", or things that can't really be quantified, I think this team has the potential to have a huge huge improvement in chemistry with the loss of Lance and addition of willing ball-movers like Lin/Hawes. The locker room issues last year were real, despite the fact that both sides have tried to downplay those problems.

I'm worried about the "middle" of the East improving. This could be the biggest factor in the Hornets not hitting this over. Somebody has to get worse, and before the season its so easy to sit there and think that almost all teams are getting better.

My overall guess though would be around 34-36 wins.

[Liver_Pooty]

Were a better team than last year. We won 33 games last year.

Ill say over.

[MPM]

I'd bet 5K on over. Sig it.

[SWedd523]

You married now? Congrats.

Almost a year and a half now. I know I haven't been gone that long

[fatlever]

You married now? Congrats.

Almost a year and a half now. I know I haven't been gone that long

I am forgetful.

[uballer]

Over. 42 wins.

[No-Man]

I had the Hornets at 40W or so with MKG and good overall health, without him I have the Hornets around 30W, it will be close, something between 28-32.

[HornetJail]

Based on this preseason, over easily. I still want to say we can squeak into the playoffs even without MKG given how different our offense looks, but I still feel like our defense is going to be weak. We're winning more games than last season regardless, but MKG's injury takes us from a potential 2nd round player to a fringe playoff team IMO.

[BigSlam]

Over.

I think we have enough depth/options on the roster this season so that if plan A or plan B isn't working in a certain game we can go to plan C or plan D and still eek out wins.

I also love that we have a rider that enables so many different line ups and playing styles - from inside to outside to half court to run and gun.


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[Woodsanity]

Losing MKG hurts but I would say anywhere from 36-42 games isn't out of the question. In the East thats good enough to get 8th seed imo. So I can see you guys in the playoffs and maybe even take a game or two if your not facing the Cavs.

[Mystical Apples]

Take the over. The line is still off even without MKG and should be closer to 38 wins. It's a deep and young team in the East which matters during the long season. The offensive system is far better this year and I doubt the defense drops much. The fact they are not tanking with multiple key guys on contract years makes it even more compelling.

Batum and Lin will be playing for big contracts. Cody is playing for an extension. Al and Lamb want to show they're still viable after this year.

If things drop right and/or they get a key piece via trade, I can see 43 wins way before 31

[Braggins]

I want to say over, but I'm hesitant until I see how Clifford coaches in the regular season. I feel like if he gets a good rotation down and is finally willing to make some substitutions based on matchups/circumstance and things of that sort, then I feel like we should easily be over. He has to be willing to do things like take Al out, especially late in games, if his defense is being exploited by other teams. If he can make necessary adjustments and manage games on a reasonable level we still have a chance at the playoffs in my opinion.