RealGM

Reading this article made me wonder what kind of deals they would get.

Al Jefferson, Hornets

2015-16 salary: $13.8 million | Last contract: 3-years, $41 million

Charlotte is staring down a crossroads with Jefferson, who put together a 21.8/10.8 season in 2013–14 before taking a step back last year due to injuries. Entering his 12th season at age 30, Jefferson remains one of the league’s craftiest low-post scorers, but the Hornets have struggled to build a competent offense around him. The league’s burgeoning obsession with pace-and-space doesn’t bode all that well for full-bodied big men with lower-body health concerns.
How the Hornets decide to handle Jefferson’s free agency will say a lot about their big-picture philosophy. GM Rich Cho has assembled a striking number of stretchy bigs, and that may or may not mean a long-term shift to a less rigid approach to positions is coming. For now, it’s best not to prematurely write off Jefferson, given that he’s only one year removed from being one of the league’s most productive centers and that he reportedly dropped significant weight by swearing off fried chicken this summer.
A return to form could net Jefferson something in the range of Brooklyn’s Brook Lopez ($63 million over three years), given their comparable offensive skill level. Jefferson had to smile when he saw the deal signed by Oklahoma City’s Enes Kanter ($70 million over four years), too. Even if Jefferson can’t get back to his 2013–14 levels, Phoenix’s Tyson Chandler ($52 million over four years) looks like a good basement as long as he stays reasonably healthy, given that Chandler is three years his senior.

Nicolas Batum, Hornets

2015-16 salary: $11.9 million | Last contract: 4-years, $46 million

Batum finds himself in an unusual situation: he’s on track to hold all the leverage next summer despite the fact that he’s coming off his worst season since his 2008–09 rookie campaign. There are a few reasons for that.

First, the Hornets parted with Noah Vonleh, a promising 2014 lottery pick who is still a teenager, to acquire Batum in a trade with the Blazers this summer. Failing to re-sign Batum next summer, almost regardless of how he plays this season, would amount to a major black eye for a franchise that’s struggled to gain credibility. Second, Batum’s skillset—when things are going well, he can knock down threes, playmake a little for others, and bring defensive versatility on the wing—are all in short supply in Charlotte, especially now that perimeter stopper Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been lost to injury for six months. Third, the 26-year-old Batum is in the career arc sweet spot: he’s old enough to have accumulated playoff experience and held down a starting role on a high-functioning offense, but he’s still young enough that his next contract won’t take him much past his 30th birthday. Fourth, Hornets owner Michael Jordan is about as impatient as they come, and if his choices are losing Batum or overpaying him, the latter seems more likely.

Back in 2012, Batum found himself in a memorably sloppy restricted free agency saga. Hopefully his 2016 summer will be less dramatic. If the Frenchman can rediscover his shooting stroke and add some zest to a clunky Hornets offense, he could be headed for DeMarre Carroll money ($58 million over four years from Toronto).

http://www.si.com/nba/2015/10/15/nba-preview-roy-hibbert-demar-derozan-al-jefferson-mike-conley-contracts.

Do you want to resign one of them? both of them? what kind of contract do you see them getting?

Nothing we didn't already know. Al is probably gone, and we will do whatever we can to keep Batum.

I'm not interested in re-signing Al unless his contract is either short so we're insulated somewhat from the risk he sharply declines or he offers uus a steep hometown discount.

Al short deal: 3yr 42 million with the 3rd yr a team option
Al hometown discount: 4yr 36 million. 8m more guaranteed since the last 16m of the first offer he'll probably never even see

He can probably get more elsewhere, especially if teams like the Knicks and Lakers feel like spending every last cent of cap space after the boom, but I see zero upside to matching a top-dollar deal for an older player who honestly isn't a superstar to begin with.

I'm much more interested in re-signing Batum, mainly because we gave up Vonleh/Hendo (Hendo was also on his last year, but I feel confident he could have been brought back at a reasonable price) and he's only 26. However, I have zero interest in offering him the new "super max" of 30m+ per season. Paying Nic Batum Anthony Davis money (actually, more, unless I'm mistaken) seems short-sighted. He's not a superstar, arguably not even really an all-star unless he really breaks out this year, he's a top-tier 3rd option and should be paid as such. Maybe if we're desperate we pay him like a top-tier 2nd option since we have limited options and we got a sweetheart deal with MKG.

Batum contract: 4yr 84 million.

That deal is well below the new max, but is essentially a max contract under the pre-boom cap. I think he can play well enough to justify $21m per season, and the other $9m+ can be used to re-sign Zeller or chase a decent role player. I will reiterate, if we pay Batum $30m+ that will almost certainly be something we regret. It's extremely hard for me to believe we can tie that much money up into one guy who is not a top-tier star and still build a 50-win team unless we hit home runs with our draft picks the next few years. I also like the idea of Batum's deal ending at age 30, given how much he plays internationally (and the fact Blazers fans claim he is more interested in Team France than his NBA team) I am concerned he may break down at 30ish and I'd rather not be holding the $32m bag when that happens.

Both situations scare the **** out of me for different and obvious reasons.

I don't mind picking up Al on a two year deal if we can't find a superior rim protector.

I dont want to resign Al, he is on the wrong side of 30 and might be a little injury prone and is a bad fit. I would much rather throw the house at Al Horford or Whiteside (depending on how he does this season).

We have to keep Nic, or that trade would be a complete failure. Hope we cam get him on a reasonable deal, i dont like the idea of signing him for 20 million per year. its possible he has already peaked.

Al aint coming back and we are going to do our damnest to keep Nic

Barring a major injury or complete Lancesque meltdown, Batum will be getting a lot more than Carroll.

JDR720 wrote:We have to keep Nic, or that trade would be a complete failure. Hope we cam get him on a reasonable deal, i dont like the idea of signing him for 20 million per year. its possible he has already peaked.

20m a year is actually a little less than what he's being paid now if you think about it as a percentage of the overall cap. Right now he's counting 12m against a 61.5m cap, or around 5%. 20m against a 90m (projected) cap is 4.5%. Blackout knows better than me, but those are the figures I pulled from a quick Google search.

Some of the contracts next summer are going to blow people's minds. The numbers are just going to off the charts compared to all existing precedents.

We have to give Batum whatever he wants due to how we acquired him. It sucks to be in the position we are with him, but at least we got Kemba and MKG cheap to somewhat offset the massive overpay we might have to give Batum to keep him.

I don't want any part of resigning Al, unless we strike out on Horford and Whiteside and he is willing to sign a two year deal for 20 million total or less. Even then, Id still probably rather sign an athletic defensive minded center for cheap.

I get the point you're making HM, but a quick assist on your numbers.

Batum is currently counting just over 19.5% towards the cap. His hypothetical 20mil salary towards a 90mil cap would be just over 22.2%. So roughly a 3% pay increase

The amount that Al and Nic re-sign for will also affect how much is available to fill out the rest of the roster.

Marvin Williams, Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lamb, Brian Roberts, Tyler Hansbrough, Troy Daniels, etc. will also be free agents at the same time as Al and Nic this off-season.

Hornets will have to decide which of those guys to bring back (if any) and at what price and years, or set aside money to find replacements for them in the free agency field.

SWedd523 wrote:I get the point you're making HM, but a quick assist on your numbers.

Batum is currently counting just over 19.5% towards the cap. His hypothetical 20mil salary towards a 90mil cap would be just over 22.2%. So roughly a 3% pay increase

Nice catch, I messed up the division pretty bad on that one.

Chandler got his deal for a myriad reasons that Al will not, and I won't even waste time discussing the age/value curve with Kanter. Al is getting a deal closer to <$10 million annually.

Batum's floor is likely closer to $18 million up to around $24 given his age, cap space, offense/defense value, positional versatility, and the possible scenario he'll have a career year. And contrary to Al Batum is plug n play and every team with cap space would be interested.

Also regarding Al, every team that would be interested in the contract slimmed-down past the center age curve Al needs to account for what's going on right now in Charlotte - the deck chair re-arranging magic dance Clifford has to undertake to account for Al. Literally 10 players minutes/rotations are directly effected by him and not for best either

Hornet Mania wrote:

SWedd523 wrote:I get the point you're making HM, but a quick assist on your numbers.

Batum is currently counting just over 19.5% towards the cap. His hypothetical 20mil salary towards a 90mil cap would be just over 22.2%. So roughly a 3% pay increase

Nice catch, I messed up the division pretty bad on that one.

I thought I was going crazy when you first posted those numbers. LOL.

Hornet Mania wrote:

SWedd523 wrote:I get the point you're making HM, but a quick assist on your numbers.

Batum is currently counting just over 19.5% towards the cap. His hypothetical 20mil salary towards a 90mil cap would be just over 22.2%. So roughly a 3% pay increase

Nice catch, I messed up the division pretty bad on that one.

Your math is wrong but the idea is spot on. Batum is currently at the end of a contract, not the beginning, that is around 17% of the cap. Should Batum sign a deal in the neighborhood of $20 million annually his deal would account for around 22% of the cap. The following year with a projected cap closer to $110 million his deal would be around 18%. If he signs for 4-5 years it's possible that goes below 17% by the final year and thus relatively cheaper than now.

My bet is that both would be gone, plus Lin.

red32 wrote:My bet is that both would be gone, plus Lin.

They need to make the playoffs and show them (and other free agents) that Charlotte is a desirable place to be.

But yes, especially if they miss the playoffs, losing all 3 in free agency next summer is a possibility.

red32 wrote:My bet is that both would be gone, plus Lin.

I have that feeling too. Cho was on the radio talking about waiting to hear from batum's agent after resigning gilchrist. I think they tried to extend him and they didn't agree on a contract. Batum's agent is known to be tough and cho and his little assistant jobs may depend on it. Lets say batum has a poor season, will you still overpay?