Kemba's Road to the All-Star Game

[fatlever]

Seven factors that will impact Kemba's chances of making the All-Star Game

1. He will have to be selected by coaches, since there is little to no chance he would win a starting spot based on fan voting. That spot is most likely going to Kyrie. And lets hope it's Kyrie who gets that fan vote since he is probably the only other point guard in the East right now playing on Kemba's level. He is a lock to make it, so it would be better if he gets the fan vote rather than it going to players like: Wade, Rose, Rondo, Lin and other older, previously popular and/or borderline all-stars or someone from a losing team.

2. The Hornets will need to have at least a winning record come mid-January. The ASG has always rewarded players and team with hot starts and the Hornets have not had a hot start in recent memory and Kemba has done his best work in December/January after typically a slow start in November. The 6-2 start and Kemba's red hot scoring and shooting is a great beginning, but the team and Kemba have to at least keep it up long enough for the media to start noticing. Even if the team falls off a bit in January, Kemba and the team may have built up enough #Buzz to overcome a losing spell. If we roll into January with a losing record, its over, no matter how great Kemba is playing. The coaches will reward the teams that are winning (like it or not) and with the depth of point guards in the East, that means if the Hornets are losing there are other point guards who are winning.

3. Kemba will have to break through the glass ceiling. All-Star games are a lot like trying to get elected in Washington. It's hard to get to DC but once you are there, it's much easier to stay. Old habits die hard. Fans and coaches tend to vote for the familiar, so players who have made the team before are always at an advantage compared to someone who is an ASG virgin. Just look at the starting point guards in the East who have previously been to the ASG - Rondo (4), Kyrie (3), Wall (3), Rose (3), Lowry (2) Teague (1), Thomas (1). Almost half of the teams in the East have a staring point guard who has already busted through the ASG glass ceiling. [probably a bad week to make an election reference]

4. The competition will be fierce. In addition to the seven point guards I mentioned in #3, there are several other guards who have a chance to break through as well. Dennis Schroeder - this might seem like a long shot, but if the Hawks are sitting in a top 3 spot in January it wouldn't be crazy to think he'll get a look. Reggie Jackson - he was knocking on the door last year with Kemba. Him being hurt to start he season helps, but he could come back strong very soon and if the Pistons are way above .500, he might get the nod. Jeremy Lin - I'll never discount the power of his fanbase. He just might get enough votes to start the game.

5. What position will Giannis be considered if the makes the team? There is good chance Giannis makes the team. No other young player in the East has as much hype as him. If the Bucks are near .500 I think he gets in. If he does make the team, the coaches might consider him a point guard.

6. Kemba has to stay healthy. Injuries will be a deciding factor, whether it be for Kemba or any of the other point guards in contention. Not that any of us are rooting for injuries to other players, but if two or three of Kemba's peers miss some time with injuries that helps his case. And there is also the possibility that a last minute injury opens up a 13th spot on the team for someone like Kemba who might have been snubbed.

7. How many point guards will be selected? In most years the number is three. One starter, one backup and one of the two wildcard spots. Kyrie is a lock. That leaves two spots to fill between Kemba, Wall, Thomas and Lowry, who I consider to be Kemba's biggest competition for the spot. It's possible with such a stacked conference of point guards we might see 4 point guards selected, but I would not bet on it.

The good news is Kemba is playing arguably the best of any of the point guards in the league so far. It's a small sample size and I don't think he can keep shooting at these percentages, especially not as we face tougher defenses and some of the longer road trips, but even if those numbers come down to 22ppg on 44%FG and 39% 3PT, those will still be career highs and awfully impressive. Also, history has often been kind to players who were snubbed the season before, who then came back even better. There was probably no other player in the East last year with a better case for the ASG who did not make it.

[yosemiteben]

I honestly think Lin takes the fan vote. He was more in the running last year than Kemba despite coming off the bench, us having a bad record, and him struggling with injury issues.

It will be a crime if Kemba doesn't make it this year though.

[fatlever]

FWIW this is the voting from last year

Guards
1 Dwyane Wade (Mia) 941,466
2 Kyle Lowry (Tor) 646,441
3 Kyrie Irving (Cle) 580,651
4 Jimmy Butler (Chi) 564,637
5 DeMar DeRozan (Tor) 444,868
6 John Wall (Was) 368,686
7 Derrick Rose (Chi) 302,389
8 Jeremy Lin (Cha) 195,920
9 Isaiah Thomas (Bos) 153,642
10 Reggie Jackson (Det) 76,688

[Hornet Mania]

It all comes down to team success.

I think if we're in the top 5 when the coaches make their picks Kemba is a lock. If we look like a sure-fire playoff team one of our players is all but guaranteed a spot. Batum is the only other guy on our roster who could make a case for that honor, but Kemba has far more name recognition and is obviously the team leader.

If the league hadn't moved the ASG I'd say he (or Batum) would be a lock no matter what.

[SWedd523]

If he keeps playing like this then there is no doubt in my mind he makes the ASG. In fact, at this pace the only thing we should be talking about is which All-NBA Team he makes

[SWedd523]

Top 20 League-wide Ranks according to BBRef

FGM -- 18th
3PM -- 3rd
3PA -- 8th
3P% -- 16th (46.6)
FTM -- 13th
FTA -- 15th
AST -- 20th
APG -- 20th (5.6)
AST% -- 13th
PTS -- 13th
PPG -- 11th (25.9)
PER -- 7th (29.1)
TS% -- 10th (64.5)
EFG -- 11th (58.9)
USG -- 14th
ORtg -- 15th (123)
OWS -- 11th
WS -- 9th
WS48 -- 4th
P/M -- 5th (9.3)
O P/M --5th
VORP -- 5th

I know it hasn't been 10 games yet, but he's on pace for a top 3 all time Hornets season

[fatlever]

So which of these point guards does not make the ASG?

Thomas: 26.1ppg, 6.9apg, 47.8%
Walker: 25.9ppg, 5.6ppg, 48.9%
Irving: 24.5ppg, 4.3apg, 43.7%
Wall: 22.3ppg, 8.3apg, 46.0%
Lowry: 17.5ppg, 6.9apg, 36.4%

Lowry is struggling so far this year, but you have to think he'll get it together. The Raps appear to be on their way to another 50+ win season. Derozan is a lock, but they might still get two just on record and recognition alone.

There is very little separation between Kemba, Thomas and Irving. You could easily argue that Thomas is having a better year than Kemba. Kyrie is a lock. It would take a injury to keep him from making it. Assuming the Celtics are a winning team as we all expect, Thomas is a near lock if he continues playing anywhere near current levels.

It might come down to Kemba vs two players who have made the ASG 5 times combined - Wall and Lowry. Kemba might have a leg up on Wall due to team record, but that's way too early to tell. Wall has the benefit of being a repeat ASG representative and he'll probably be leading or near the top of EC PGs in assists/game.

One wildcard to make the team who is not really a PG but a combo guard is Bradley. He is currently averaging 19ppg, 8rpg, 4apg and of course playing stellar defense.

I think its way too early for us to act like Kemba will be a lock if he keeps playing well.

Maybe the easy answer this year is having four true PGs making the team. That still means one of those 5 is sitting at home, along with fan favorites Rose, Rondo and Lin who could each very easily be voted in as starters.

[fatlever]

Top 20 League-wide Ranks according to BBRef

FGM -- 18th
3PM -- 3rd
3PA -- 8th
3P% -- 16th (46.6)
FTM -- 13th
FTA -- 15th
AST -- 20th
APG -- 20th (5.6)
AST% -- 13th
PTS -- 13th
PPG -- 11th (25.9)
PER -- 7th (29.1)
TS% -- 10th (64.5)
EFG -- 11th (58.9)
USG -- 14th
ORtg -- 15th (123)
OWS -- 11th
WS -- 9th
WS48 -- 4th
P/M -- 5th (9.3)
O P/M --5th
VORP -- 5th

I know it hasn't been 10 games yet, but he's on pace for a top 3 all time Hornets season

He'd be in the ranks with guys like Glen Rice 1997 and Larry Johnson 1993.

But there is no way Kemba continues to stay this red hot with his shooting %s. Like I said in 1st post, I think we'd all be really happy to see him end up with 22ppg on 44%FG and 39% 3pt.

[fatlever]

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nba/charlotte-hornets/article114394288.html

Looks like Rick had the same idea today. One of us gets paid, the other does this for fun. Hmmm....

[yosemiteben]

Ainge robbed PHX blind in that IT trade. Talk about striking gold.

[JDR720]

the guards will be

Irving,Rose,Lowry,Wall,Jimmy,Wade and Demar for sure.

the only way Kemba makes it is if the coaches put him in, there is basically a 0% shot the fans do.

[fatlever]

Marc Stein ‏@ESPNSteinLine 9m9 minutes ago
Small Sample Size, sure, but Kemba Walker is already making an All-Star push, His PER at this tender stage is 28.9 ... up from 20.8 in 15-16

[TinmanZBoy]

I honestly think Lin takes the fan vote. He was more in the running last year than Kemba despite coming off the bench, us having a bad record, and him struggling with injury issues.

It will be a crime if Kemba doesn't make it this year though.

there is no chance that Lin would be voted in... Lin has a big fanbase, but not big enough to vote him in... his votes has decreased year after year since Linsanity...
Kemba probably will get coaches' votes, he should get some sympathy votes since he deserved to be in last season

[Diop]

Ainge robbed PHX blind in that IT trade. Talk about striking gold.

its sort of amazing that he's on his 3rd team and its not like he was part of big block buster trades.

He always seemed underestimated, I guess just because he's short

[Radu_Hornets]

[Zombiesonics]

4th in the nba in VORP, BPM, and 5th in WS/48. 7th in PER. The guy is insane, can't wait to see what he does over the next 10 games or so. I would bet the house his 3pt numbers stay over 40% for the season.

[yosemiteben]

We could probably still take Steph this summer if he's ok coming off the bench.

[fatlever]

12/31 Update

Eastern Point Guards

Isaiah Thomas: 27.7ppg, 2.5rpg, 6.1apg, 0.9spg, 45.0%FG, 35.5%3PT, 26.8PER (20-14)
Kyrie Irving: 23.9ppg, 3.6rpg, 6.0apg, 1.1spg, 48.1%FG, 42.0%3PT, 22.9PER (24-7)
John Wall: 23.6ppg, 4.5rpg, 10.apg, 2.3spg, 46.4%FG, 33.0%3PT, 24.3PER (16-16)*
Kemba Walker: 22.3ppg, 4.0rpg, 5.4apg, 1.3spg, 45.7%FG, 40.9%3PT, 22.3PER (19-14)
Kyle Lowry: 22.2ppg, 4.8rpg, 7.3rpg, 1.5spg, 46.9%fg, 44.4%3PT, 23.5PER (22-10)

*Wizards are 14-8 after starting 2-8

4 guards from the East will make the team, plus maybe another 2 via the 2 wild card spots, for a total of 6 potential spots for guards. The guard list also includes shooting guards such as Demarr Derozan, Dwyane Wade, Nic Batum, Bradley Beal and Avery Bradley.

From the point guard list Irving, Thomas and Lowry are near locks.
From the shooting guard list Derozan is a lock and there is a good chance Wade makes it as a starter.


Between 4-6 spots available
Definitely In: Irving, Thomas, Lowry, Derozan
Possibly In: Wall, Wade, Kemba

At least one of that group of 7 guards will not make the team. If Wade makes it as a starter (very likely), then Kemba not only has to beat out Wall, but he also has to hope the voters give both wildcard spots to point guards, rather than one going to a frontcourt player. Wall has been playing fantastic lately and the Wizards are winning again. I put Kemba's odds at making it over Wall at no better than 50%, perhaps less.

Of course, there is always the chance of an injury inclusion, which might be Kemba's best chance.

Just to round out the team, the possible frontcourt players for the East (6-8 players). Ideally we need only 6 players from this group to make the team, which will be tough.

Lebron James
Jimmy Butler
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Carmelo Anthony
Paul George
Kevin Love
Kristaps Porzingis
Hassan Whiteside
Paul Millsap
Al Horford

others
Parker
Drummond
Howard
Ibaka

[fatlever]

Here's my EC All-Star team as of today

BC: Isaiah Thomas
BC: Demar Derozan
FC: Lebron James
FC: Giannis Antetokounmpo
FC: Jimmy Butler

BC: Kyle Lowry
BC: Kemba Walker
FC: Kevin Love
FC: Kristaps Porzingis
FC: Hassan Whiteside

Util: John Wall
Util: Kyrie Irving

Snubs: Carmelo Anthony, Paul George, Dwyane Wade, Paul Millsap

[Chuck Everett]

Not gonna be easy. Hornets need to keep winning to help his chances.