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We've talked about this for several weeks and last night vs Nets we saw another example of the team giving up far too many 3s to a team that lives by shooting 3s. Lets discuss and get to the bottom of what is happening.

Some quick numbers (as of 12/28/2016)

We are 14th in the league in opponent 3PT% allowed at 35.3%.

We are 29th in the league in 3PT attempts allowed/per game at 30.2.

We are 28th in the league in 3PT made allowed/per game at 10.6.

from gt.

the 3pt stat isnt that surprising. we have pretty terrible defenders besides 3 or 4 guys.

and some of that is "dig dig dig" because cliff doesn't think our bigs can guard without help, which is mostly true

Some Questions

Is allowing a ton of 3PA the trade-off to having Cody as our starting center? Is Clifford asking our wings to cover too much ground in an effort to help Cody seal off the paint?

Why has this become more of a problem than when we had Jefferson back there?

Can come up with a trade for a shot blocker who will 1) help our problem of shutting down the 3PTA 2) while at the same time, not making us worse on offense 3) or costing too much in terms of players or picks making us worse in the process?

Does the answer lie more with another wing who can defender the perimeter and also make some shots?

Does anyone have numbers on opponent 3PTAs broken down by which Hornets are on the floor? I'm curious to see if there are any players or combinations of players that are more susceptible to allowing 3PTAs.

Why hasn't Bonnell asking Cliff about why the Hornets are 29th in allowing 3PTAs?

I don't have the number in front of me, but I'd be curious to see where we rank in terms of % of overall points allowed coming from made 3s.

Is our opponent FTA allowed a misleading stat? While some of that is scheme and good coaching you could argue that teams are taking a lot of FTs against us because they are finding so many good looks from 3pt line instead.

Some pretty fair relatively recent articleabout Hornet's defense (and about what it should be with this current roster)

As a reminder, without MKG for most of the season and CLee + JLin in the backcourt, this team was at League average in opponent's 3P %.
There is an interesting quote in that article

The only flaw in Clifford’s defensive system is that they have trouble defending kick-out passes from the post, which can lead to open three-pointers.

Zach Harper of CBS Sports called that issue their biggest weakness heading into the season.

The Hornets ranked 14th in 3-point percentage allowed this season at 34.9 percent and their 3-point rate allowed was 23rd in the NBA. But when they committed to defending the post and the post scorer passed out of it, they got lit up from 3-point range.

“Eighty-two of the 145 shots that were generated in passes out of the post were 3-point attempts. Their opponents made 40.2 percent of those attempts. It’s not a large amount of points against them over the course of the season, but the opposition will look for any advantage they can get going against such a good defense.

With wing defenders helping aggressively on dribble penetration and post-ups, shots from the corner tend to fall through the cracks. That’s just the reality of scheming defensively in the NBA. To take something away you are forced to leave something open.

As for stats in particular, i looked last week end stats by position (opponent shooting %) and i did not see anything relatively clear. And initially, i checked opponent's shooting because i had the feeling their midrange jumpers were way too efficient (suprinsingly the bench is doing better on those shots).
Both the starters and the bench tend to leave rather high percentage for opponent's threes (especially right at the arc distance) especially on right's wing (from what i recall).
But all in all, i think it is highly debatable (to say the least) to put this merely on the players and even worst, to call one or two players in particular.

Per NBAwowy.com (I'm new to this site, so I might not have the best understanding of our to create good queries). If anyone else has better info, please post.

With Cody on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 35.3
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 34.2

With Cody off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 33.5
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 38.0

With MKG on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 36.0
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 35.6

With MKG off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 32.2
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 33.2

With Batum on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.3
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 34.7

With Batum off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.4
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 35.4

With Hibbert on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 30.1
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 38.0

With Hibbert off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 35.9
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 34.0

With Lamb on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 32.2
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 32.6

With Lamb off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.9
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 35.5

With Marco on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 33.8
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 36.1

With Marco off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.9
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 33.7

With Frank on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.9
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 33.5

With Frank off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 33.8
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 36.3

With Marvin on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.7
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 35.8

With Marvin off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.1
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 34.2

with Kemba on

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.1
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 35.3

With Kemba off

Percentage of opponent shots that are 3PTs = 34.8
Percentage of opponent made 3PTs = 34.1

I'm not sure what value, if any, the on/off data for 3PTA and 3PT% has towards showing us any obvious problems.

MKGs numbers are concerning and Lamb's numbers are promising. Then again, how much of that is related to who each player is playing against? W/out doing the same comparison and factoring in each opponents numbers vs each player, its hard to get a perfect picture.

Hibbert's numbers are probably the most bizarre. Teams shooting fewer 3s when he is in the game, but making them at highest %.

MotorKeepsGoing wrote:I don't care what you people say about us being a top 7 defense by DRTG or whatever. We are not an above average defense giving up this amount of threes to teams.

Well, I can understand the sentiment, but as a technical point this doesn't make a ton of sense. What is a better indicator of a team's defense - the amount of points the opposing team scores or solely looking at opponent 3 point shooting stats? I don't care if teams shoot 100% from three if we can somehow magically still have a top 5 defense, at the end of the day the goal is to allow the least amount of points by the opposing team.

The problem is that our defense is really not playing at top 7 level anymore. We actually have been worse in December than in November.

November - 34.0% opponent 3PT% (10th), 31.6 opponent 3PTA (30th by a wide margin), 44.2% opponent FG% (12th), 102.8 DRTG (11th). Specifically focusing on opponent 3PT shooting, was curious to look at the tracking data and if you break down opponent 3PT% and attempts by zone we allow the following:

Left Corner - 3.9 attempts (25th), 32% (5th). Half the league allowed 40% or higher on left corner threes, so this is pretty impressive.

Right Corner - 3.1 attempts (21st), 34% (8th). Still well below league average. We did a pretty nice job closing out on corner 3s on both sides.

Above the Break - 24.2 attempts (30th), 34.7% (13th). This is where the problem lies.

December - 36.1% opponent 3PT% (17th), 29.2 opponent 3PTA (tied for 22nd, but only 1.5 attempts per game separates 17th from 25th), 45.1% opponent FG% (14th), 104.6 DRTG (10th). If you break down opponent 3PT% and attempts by zone, we allow the following:

Left Corner - 3.5 attempts (22nd, half an attempt above league average, just 1 attempt per game separates 2nd from 24th), 41% (19th).

Right Corner - 3.4 attempts (20th, half an attempt above league average), 36% (9th).

Above the Break - 22.1 attempts (25th), 35.5% (16th). Again, this is generally where the problem lies.

Now we haven't taken the tumble defensively as a team that some have - each of ORL (2nd), ATL (3rd), MIA (5th), LAC (6th), and NOP (8th) were excellent defensive teams in November and took a huge tumble in December (ORL 21st, ATL 27th, MIA 18th, LAC 17th, and NOP 20th.

Copied my last post from the GT. Interesting that we generally have done a fine job of closing out on corner 3s, it's really above the break 3s that are the problem. Seems like digging when your man is in the corner is fine because we can close out on the shorter distance, but there's not really any way someone can dig and still contest an above the break three.

I'm not at all convinced that Cody is the problem with our scheme, he might not be an elite ISO paint defender but we can have an elite defensive team with him logging big minutes at the C spot.

I'm happy you made this thread Fats. I've been talking about this since last year ever since Zeller became the starting C and I'm happy to see people finally catching on.

It would be nice to call this thread "Dig, Dig, Dig!"

Two primary reasons why I don't think Cody is the problem:

(1) Cody is at worst an average 1v1 paint defender. His DFG% is -8% compared to his man's average. Rim protection stats:

Andrew Bogut - 50.5% FG
John Henson - 50.9% FG
Cody Zeller - 51.0% FG
Myles Turner - 51.0% FG
Tyson Chandler - 52.3% FG
Gorgui Deng - 51.5% FG
Derrick Favors - 51.4% FG
Andre Drummond - 55.6% FG
Jonas Valanciunas - 53.6% FG
Joakim Noah - 57.3% FG
Marcin Gortat - 57.8% FG

(2) When Cody is on the floor, opponents attempt 30.4 threes per 100 possessions and shoot 34.9%. When he's off the floor, opponents attempt 29.9 threes per 100 possessions and shoot 35.7%. It's not the case that we change our scheme when he is on the floor to help him in the paint which is leading to more open threes being taken.

fatlever wrote:Is allowing a ton of 3PA the trade-off to having Cody as our starting center? Is Clifford asking our wings to cover too much ground in an effort to help Cody seal off the paint?

No and yes. We dig too much on ATB threes, but it's not just digging - we also regularly see MKG coming off his man to help contain drives, often times when it is not necessary. I think we overhelp as a part of our scheme.

fatlever wrote:Why has this become more of a problem than when we had Jefferson back there?

We allowed a higher % on threes in 2013-14 and 2014-15 than in the following two seasons. I think the uptick in attempts is a combination of us changing our scheme at the same time that teams across the league are starting to attempt more threes.

fatlever wrote:Can come up with a trade for a shot blocker who will 1) help our problem of shutting down the 3PTA 2) while at the same time, not making us worse on offense 3) or costing too much in terms of players or picks making us worse in the process?

IMO, no.

fatlever wrote:Does the answer lie more with another wing who can defender the perimeter and also make some shots?

No. I think the scheme is the problem. You can't convince me that MKG is the reason we can't defend the three point line. MAYBE you can say he tries to do too much, but I view that as a scheme issue.

fatlever wrote:Does anyone have numbers on opponent 3PTAs broken down by which Hornets are on the floor? I'm curious to see if there are any players or combinations of players that are more susceptible to allowing 3PTAs.

Link - sort by % and attempts

fatlever wrote:Why hasn't Bonnell asking Cliff about why the Hornets are 29th in allowing 3PTAs?

Think you know the answer to this one...

Playing around with Team Defense stats (link):

% of OPP FGAs that are wide open 3PTAs: 13.6% (18th)
% of OPP FGAs that are 4-6 feet open 3PTAs: 14.1% (26th)
% of OPP FGAs that are 2-4 feet open 3PTAs: 5.7% (26th)

Good work YB. Thanks.

Partial Summary? the wings (MKG in particular) are really committing to shutting down penetration into the paint as well as aggressively helping once the ball gets into the paint. They are doing a good job getting back shooters in the corner, but not so much at above the break (ATB). Teams are shooting a lot of wide open 3s ATB, hitting at a league average %.

While MKG is giving up a lot of 3s and they are being made at a higher % than his teammates, teams are also shooting the lowest FG% with him on the floor, probably a result of him helping to shut down every except ATB 3s.

What can be done to limit the ATB 3s while at the same time not compromising the rest of the defense?

Lets also at least acknowledge that a lot of the problems contesting 3s simply comes down to energy and awareness. Too many examples from last night of Batum lazily closing out on shooters. Nothing scheme can do about that problem. Same with awareness, guys leaving red hot shooters to help when its not needed.

Another fun stat...

We give up the highest amount of points from 3PTers as a % of overal points allowed.

Teams average 102.7 points per game against us. Teams average 10.6 made 3s against us for an average of 31.8 points per game by 3PTers. That figures out to 30.96% of the total points scored against us coming from made 3s.

The bottom 5 in this stat
30. Hornets
29. Mavs
28. Pelican
27. KIngs
26. Bucks

The top 5 in this stat
1. Heat
2. Thunder
3. Magic
4. Nuggets
5. Clippers

The numbers are roughly the same when you do it by 100 possessions. Hornets still last.

I'm not suggesting this is a stat that shows the quality of a team's defense, just showing trends.

Bucks, Grizzlies, Hawks, Raptors and Cavs all fall in the bottom 10 in same stat. Just shows where teams place their priorities defensively.

It's interesting that we continue to have decent perimeter defense in terms of OPP 3PT%. Not sure what that does to the theory that we are routinely leaving shooters open.

This team is weird. All I know is that it seems like we are much better than our actual performances and win/loss would indicate. Like, something I can't quite put my finger on seems to be off. This 3pt issue reminds me of that. Its like we have a good defense, but we somehow don't really at the same time lol.

Braggins wrote:This team is weird. All I know is that it seems like we are much better than our actual performances and win/loss would indicate. Like, something I can't quite put my finger on seems to be off. This 3pt issue reminds me of that. Its like we have a good defense, but we somehow don't really at the same time lol.

Frontcourt depth and length is our biggest weakness next to backup PG production. Put your finger on it and press. Reason why I want Noel because we'll need that rim protection in the playoffs.

Cody is all fine and dandy as a rim protector when it's defense by committee but we need someone that our perimeter defenders can feel free passing off their assignment to in the paint knowing the shot will likely get altered or blocked. Teams don't fear attacking the rim against us.

catch20two wrote:Cody is all fine and dandy as a rim protector when it's defense by committee but we need someone that our perimeter defenders can feel free passing off their assignment to in the paint knowing the shot will likely get altered or blocked.

Seems like that guy is Hibbert and that's 100% the reason we got him last summer. I also feel like it is oversimplifying to say we just want a rim protector, we kind of want someone that can do all the stuff on both ends that we ask Zeller to do and that makes him so effective but that also can sit back and wait at the rim. I don't think that guy exists.

I also just disagree with the theory in general. We went 7 with MIA in the playoffs (and should have taken them in 6) despite injuries to half of our starting lineup, including Cody. I think we absolutely can advance deep into the playoffs with Cody logging big minutes at C.

At the very least I think the jury is out on our ceiling with Cody as a center. Only recently have we started grooming Cody as a center and he was clearly hurt for a good bit of the playoffs last season. I think he still has more to learn in terms of positioning and using his body in the paint and in terms of being physical on D without fouling. Is it possible that he can't be a serviceable starting C in the playoffs? Yes, but I don't think we have the body of evidence to make that claim yet.

I'm not necessarily opposed to getting Noel, but if we do he better be the missing piece because we're going to have to both give up assets to get him and give him a big payday next summer that will ruin any cap space we could generate to make a major move. I don't really know what to make of the talk about his off the court attitude, but I don't really feel too strongly about that being a risk.