Comfortably Plum - the Miles Plumlee Thread

[yosemiteben]

I pretty strongly disagree with that take. Miles posted excellent PNR stats in previous years (something Hawes and Roy were physically incapable of doing) and he's a very competent defender. He's a much, much better fit than Roy or Hawes and this summer's C FA class is terrible. The worst case scenario wasn't trading for him, it was keeping Roy and Hawes, Hawes opting in and us still having very little cap space and having to use whatever we had on a backup PG.

The choice for next summer was Hawes + cheap FA (believe only $3-4M in cap space) or Plumlee + middle of the road FA ($8M).

[Mystical Apples]

I share similar concerns but "sunk cost" is a little hyperbolic. Plumlee replaced Hawes' $6M, added the higher MLE, and CHA avoids 2017 Free Agency making it a wash until 2018, maybe slightly positive depending on the market value of Sessions' Option (after using the higher MLE for backup PG instead of C).

Also, one of the overlooked factors is using Plumlee's contract as filler for a significant move which would've been challenging given Charlotte's relative lack of high priced contracts.

[fatlever]

I feel like we can't cite Plumlee's old PnR stats any more than Hibbert's old rim protection stats. Both guys appear to be different players than they were 2-3 years ago. We're banking on him making a big turnaround next year to get back to that player who posted favorable numbers.

[Braggins]

My guess is the trade happened because we need a backup center, Cliff likes Plumlee, and Jordan demanded we do something to make a push for the playoffs. I'm guessing Cho looked around for a better deal, but couldn't find anything that wouldn't require giving up our 1st round pick, so he caved and pulled the trigger on this nonsense. Seems like everyone in our front office triumvirate had their fingerprints on this deal in some way.

[Braggins]

Also, one of the overlooked factors is using Plumlee's contract as filler for a significant move which would've been challenging given Charlotte's relative lack of high priced contracts.

Seems like Plumlee should have negative trade value, though, so I'm not too confident his contract would be very useful for that purpose.

[Braggins]

The worst case scenario wasn't trading for him, it was keeping Roy and Hawes, Hawes opting in and us still having very little cap space and having to use whatever we had on a backup PG.

How would that have been worse? According to that guy on the Milwaukee board this doesn't actually change our cap situation with regards to the MLE (wed basically have the same to spend either way). Now we are going to be paying 13 million for Plumlee for two years after Hawes would have been off the books. Seems like not doing the trade would have been slightly worse in terms of how it affected next season, but much preferable after that.

[yosemiteben]

I feel like we can't cite Plumlee's old PnR stats any more than Hibbert's old rim protection stats. Both guys appear to be different players than they were 2-3 years ago.

Why? Roy had excellent rim protection numbers this season even with his injuries. The issue was mobility and whether even when healthy he could defend the PNR and close out on shooters like is required of modern defenses.

Plumlee's strength by contrast is tailor made for a PNR heavy offense, and he has the same sort of lateral mobility and athleticism that allows Cody to excel on defense.

[yosemiteben]

How would that have been worse? ... Seems like not doing the trade would have been slightly worse in terms of how it affected next season, but much preferable after that.

Well yeah, not doing the trade would have meant Hawes as primary backup C for two seasons, which I view as very undesirable. Given the choice, I'll take a better C option that is a more obvious fit for us on both ends of the floor and I'll deal with the cap space question over the next 18 months. We saw how fun it was to have a cobbled together rotation while we wait to hopefully be able to put some cap space to use. I'll take the upgrade now if I can get it, and I view Plumlee as a significant upgrade.

[Mystical Apples]

The worst case scenario wasn't trading for him, it was keeping Roy and Hawes, Hawes opting in and us still having very little cap space and having to use whatever we had on a backup PG.

Now we are going to be paying 13 million for Plumlee for two years after Hawes would have been off the books. Seems like not doing the trade would have been slightly worse in terms of how it affected next season, but much preferable after that.

2018-19's projected salary cap is expected to level around $103M. Even without Plumlee CHA is committed to ~ $84M/8 players which excludes future FA's, MLE, rookie scales, minimum roster charges, Frank's potential extension, and Kemba's looming expiring and/or 2019 cap hold.

Believe me, I'm not exactly defending the move, just there was/is defensible rationale behind it.

[Braggins]

I'm not impressed by Plumlee at all, but I would probably take him over Hawes. I guess I just don't think the difference is worth taking on that salary for an extra two years, especially when you consider that Frank will be getting some of the center minutes anyways. The difference between a Cody, Frank, Hawes/Wood/JOB, rotation and a Cody, Frank, Plumlee, rotation seems fairly marginal. Plumlee really needs to improve his play to make it worth it imo.

[fatlever]

How would that have been worse? ... Seems like not doing the trade would have been slightly worse in terms of how it affected next season, but much preferable after that.

Well yeah, not doing the trade would have meant Hawes as primary backup C for two seasons, which I view as very undesirable. Given the choice, I'll take a better C option that is a more obvious fit for us on both ends of the floor and I'll deal with the cap space question over the next 18 months. We saw how fun it was to have a cobbled together rotation while we wait to hopefully be able to put some cap space to use. I'll take the upgrade now if I can get it, and I view Plumlee as a significant upgrade.

I guess I am not ready to concede that Plumlee is a better backup center option over Hawes. I need to see it to believe it, even if the bar is set very low. I'm willing to cut Plumlee some slack since he didn't have a training camp with the coach and was out of shape, then injured. If the player we see next year looks similar to the version we've seen this year, then I'd rather just give JOB or some other young player his minutes.

[yosemiteben]

I agree that Plumlee needs to improve or I guess more accurately that he needs to function better in our system and be in better shape, no doubt there. The things we know though is that he is strong, ridiculously athletic, and when he has been in PNR heavy systems in the past has been excellent in those sets. MIL was a terrible system for him and I don't get why they gave him that deal in the first place.

[Braggins]

The worst case scenario wasn't trading for him, it was keeping Roy and Hawes, Hawes opting in and us still having very little cap space and having to use whatever we had on a backup PG.

Now we are going to be paying 13 million for Plumlee for two years after Hawes would have been off the books. Seems like not doing the trade would have been slightly worse in terms of how it affected next season, but much preferable after that.

Believe me, I'm not exactly defending the move, just there was/is defensible rationale behind it.

Yeah, I'm not disagreeing with you guys there. I think it all hinges on Plumlee improving on his recent play and getting back to where he was a couple years ago, as Fats mentioned. I'm just never comfortable with these situations where we rely on a veteran who is seemingly significantly declined making a sort of comeback. Its a bigger crap shoot than the draft, but there generally also isn't a whole lot of upside either. There is more reason to be optimistic about Plumlee turning things around than someone like Roy, but him flopping would also be a bigger deal than our other recent flops since we have a fairly significant chunk of long term salary tied into this reclamation project.

[UNCNYC]

I think wood is a better option than plum on the cheap

[Mystical Apples]

How would that have been worse? ... Seems like not doing the trade would have been slightly worse in terms of how it affected next season, but much preferable after that.

Well yeah, not doing the trade would have meant Hawes as primary backup C for two seasons, which I view as very undesirable. Given the choice, I'll take a better C option that is a more obvious fit for us on both ends of the floor and I'll deal with the cap space question over the next 18 months. We saw how fun it was to have a cobbled together rotation while we wait to hopefully be able to put some cap space to use. I'll take the upgrade now if I can get it, and I view Plumlee as a significant upgrade.

I guess I am not ready to concede that Plumlee is a better backup center option over Hawes. I need to see it to believe it, even if the bar is set very low. I'm willing to cut Plumlee some slack since he didn't have a training camp with the coach and was out of shape, then injured. If the player we see next year looks similar to the version we've seen this year, then I'd rather just give JOB or some other young player his minutes.

Except Hawes lacks the athleticism CHA hopes for when Cody inevitably misses 15-20 games with nagging injuries. And let's be honest.....Hawes really, really sucked this season and has an easily replaced skill set, either by Frank or moving Marvin there.

[fatlever]

Read on Twitter

[Braggins]

This trade... I went to his bball reference page hoping to find something to be optimistic about, but it backfired. Hes 28 years old and in his second best statistical season as a pro he only averaged 5/4. His contract situation is similar to Omer Asik and we traded FOR him.

[yosemiteben]

This trade... I went to his bball reference page hoping to find something to be optimistic about, but it backfired.

He was an elite PNR C in PHO. He then went to MIL who ran the fewest PNR sets in the league and he (and they) had a major identity crisis and struggled.

In the 2013-14 season he averaged 8 points and 8 boards in 25 MPG for a 48 win team in the West.

[Braggins]

This trade... I went to his bball reference page hoping to find something to be optimistic about, but it backfired.

He was an elite PNR C in PHO. He then went to MIL who ran the fewest PNR sets in the league and he (and they) had a major identity crisis and struggled.

In the 2013-14 season he averaged 8 points and 8 boards in 25 MPG for a 48 win team in the West.

That 8 and 8 season was his only year where he put up notable production. He does theoretically fit what we are trying to do and the pick and roll potential seems to be real, so hopefully it works out. As usual, I'm just not very hopeful.

[catch20two]

Pretty underwhelming player that has been declining going towards his prime from being average. Being that we didn't make the playoffs it makes the trade that much worse taking on his contract. The only hope and silver lining I had in that trade was at least he's not Hibbert.