RealGM

In this thread I will give a nightly update on how much the tanking landscape has changed. We truly have a great opportunity to land a Top 5 pick in a loaded class.

The real difference is that healthy and with a solid backup PG we are a veteran ~48-50 win team with a Top 5 pick not your typical ~25 win roster of losers and rookies. This is truly a giant opportunity.


As of today we stand at the 13th worst record but my formula is projecting us to end up with the 9th worst record in the league. But there is very little difference between that and the likelihood of the 7th worst record in the league.

The 5th worst is still well within reach and the 4th worst has a tiny likelihood.

As you know the lower we drop, our odds at winding up with a top 3 pick rise sharply.

I will continue to try to improve this very rough formula as the season unwinds. Right now SOS isnt all that important but it will be as the games unfold. Also, current level of play will become increasingly important over season long data as teams begin to shut players down or make deadline deals

All percentages below are estimations based on Vegas lines and calculated roughly in my head. Im not spending time inputting these in a calculator.

Ok tank watch tonight.

Very important games

70% chance Toronto beats us. Pivotal loss we match up well with the Raps, hope we dont spring the upset. Also another loss might kill our spirit and aid the tank.


Important games:

Milwaukee (70% chance to win)

This win helps kill our playoff hopes and raise incentive to embrace tank.

Mildly Important:

Det (64%) vs Dallas (36%) Det win helps kill playoff chances while Dallas win helps drop us lower. I think id prefer the Det win to help embrace the tank.

Lucky Longshots:

Orlando (14%) (HUGE +++)
Philly (15%) (HUGE +++)
New Orleans (22%) (MEDIUM ++)
NYK (27%) (MEDIUM ++)
Miami (15%) (LOW +)
Portland (22%) (LOW +)
Kings (2%) (LOW +)


These wins are unlikely and therefore losses are not as "important" as they dont hurt much but unexpected wins are huge for our tanking scenarios. If we even get one of these tonight its only slightly below a neutral outcome for us.

In parentheses ive listed which games matter the most in this group.
i.e. huge (+++), medium (++) and low (+)

This ranking is composed as a combination of likelihood of winning due to opponent and how much ground we have to gain on this particular opponent.

In other words dont get too upset if the kings lose to the warriors that doesnt change anything in the grand scheme of things. Whereas an unlikely upset win by philly or Orlando tonight would be HUGE in helping us make up that 3 game gap but a likely loss doesnt hurt us much.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------Hinkie has created a monster that will awaken in 2018 precisely 200 years after Mary Shelley published Frankenstein in 1818 A.D.
I don't think for a second this is coincidental as Hinkie is well educated and a fan of Classic British Lit

http://www.tankathon.com/

Ran the sim until Charlotte landed in top 3. It took 75 attempts.

2 games out of 8th pick
4 games out of 5th pick
6 games out of 3rd pick

1.5 games out of 8th seed
2.5 games out of 7th seed

I still think that more teams will try to tank around us (Detroit, Milwaukee, Chicago) and Clifford will put on his big smile when the Hornets win 10 out of their last 12 to make the playoffs as the 8th or 7th seed. Then we lose in the 1st round again, Cho and Clifford will chalk it to injuries and we will rinse and repeat for next season.

Its so damn predictable.

But yes, at this point I would rather tank. At least get a top 7 pick.

I dont think mil, chi, det are nearly bad enough to out tank us

My Jokic Progression Signature
-2014 2nd Rd Draft Pick
-2016 All ROOK 1st Team
-2017 All NBA 3rd Team
-2018 All NBA 2nd Team
-2019 All NBA 1st Team

I'm on board the (stealth) tank. Sit Cody out for as many games as possible and let Frank play as center for the rest of the season.

If Miami beats Houston tonight we'll have the 11th worst record. We'll be tied for 10th if Portland beats Utah.

Hopefully that means we'll land a better veteran when we inevitably trade our pick.

Good thread, GR.

We're only 4 games out of the second worst record in the Eastern Conference.


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Robot Rock wrote:Hopefully that means we'll land a better veteran when we inevitably trade our pick.

This is a salient point. Instead of researching prospects we should be looking at the list of Clifford-Cho-MJ man-crushes. Maybe we can finally get that Greg Monroe or Brook Lopez we've been pining for.

Eoghan wrote:

Robot Rock wrote:Hopefully that means we'll land a better veteran when we inevitably trade our pick.

This is a salient point. Instead of researching prospects we should be looking at the list of Clifford-Cho-MJ man-crushes. Maybe we can finally get that Greg Monroe or Brook Lopez we've been pining for.

Kris Humphries

Sorry Tanktruthers but over the past 2 seasons the Hornets are +9.4 with Kemba, Marco, Lamb, Nic, MKG, Marvin, Frank, Cody and replacement level production from Roy or Al. Which BTW is easily a top 10 NBA core over that span.

And watch out if Cody returns, CHA adds a 2nd handler from the wing, Frank backs up Cody, and everyone slides up to their natural positions.

fatlever wrote:

Eoghan wrote:

Robot Rock wrote:Hopefully that means we'll land a better veteran when we inevitably trade our pick.

This is a salient point. Instead of researching prospects we should be looking at the list of Clifford-Cho-MJ man-crushes. Maybe we can finally get that Greg Monroe or Brook Lopez we've been pining for.

Kris Humphries

Brook Lopez hit 6-10 from 3 tonight, that type of shooting will make you the perfect stretch 4 for Charlotte.

He just needs to slightly adjust for the new position. . .

Mystical Apples wrote:
And watch out if Cody returns, CHA adds a 2nd handler from the wing, Frank backs up Cody, and everyone slides up to their natural positions.

We just committed 50 million to Miles Plumlee and Clifford isn't going to slide everyone up a position unless hes forced to by injuries. Plumlee is going to be our backup center unless we trade him and Frank is going to play PF. I'd say there's less than a 20% chance Clifford does what you're suggesting if everyone is healthy after the all-star break. If Plumlee misses a bunch of time and Clifford is forced to play Frank at center and go small more then we might see Frank switch positions, but I still kind of doubt it.

GlenRiceARoni wrote:I dont think mil, chi, det are nearly bad enough to out tank us

I don't even think we're bad enough to out tank us

Mystical Apples wrote:Sorry Tanktruthers but over the past 2 seasons the Hornets are +9.4 with Kemba, Marco, Lamb, Nic, MKG, Marvin, Frank, Cody and replacement level production from Roy or Al. Which BTW is easily a top 10 NBA core over that span.

And watch out if Cody returns, CHA adds a 2nd handler from the wing, Frank backs up Cody, and everyone slides up to their natural positions.

It better be some steals in trades. We have lost 11 in a row on the road now. Guess where our first six games after the All-Star break are! #morerecentfacts


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Diop wrote:

fatlever wrote:

Eoghan wrote:This is a salient point. Instead of researching prospects we should be looking at the list of Clifford-Cho-MJ man-crushes. Maybe we can finally get that Greg Monroe or Brook Lopez we've been pining for.

Kris Humphries

Brook Lopez hit 6-10 from 3 tonight, that type of shooting will make you the perfect stretch 4 for Charlotte.

He just needs to slightly adjust for the new position. . .

Cho is on the phone with the Nets as we speak!


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Mystical Apples wrote:Sorry Tanktruthers but over the past 2 seasons the Hornets are +9.4 with Kemba, Marco, Lamb, Nic, MKG, Marvin, Frank, Cody and replacement level production from Roy or Al. Which BTW is easily a top 10 NBA core over that span.

And watch out if Cody returns, CHA adds a 2nd handler from the wing, Frank backs up Cody, and everyone slides up to their natural positions.

I'm happy with our starting five. I really am. This team predictably struggles hard without Cody or a decent replacement. Lamb is good too. I just want to purge the rest of the roster. Subtly lower Kemba's and our other starters minutes a bit, let Cody recover as long as he needs it, rest any player with a minor boo-boo, and go super young with the bench- D-League guys, young players that don't make the cut after the trade deadline, etc. If Cody stays out a few more weeks, we've tanked adequately. Try and make cap space in anyway possible and go into the offseason with a top 7 pick and a couple dozen million in cap space.

Boy, i dont know if this thread was a good luck charm but what a remarkable first evening of games!

BTW, to simplify things for futute posts ive decided to introduce the term 'DROP'.

What does it stand for? Idk how about
Draft
Rights to
Optimistic
Prospects'

Its just a simple way to convey our chances of finishing with a higher draft pick due to various wins/losses/injuries/etc

Examples:
We lose, thats good for our DROP rating. Cody is out for the season thats huge for our DROP rating. The Twolves shelve KAT that doesnt hurt our avg DROP rating much but it limits our chances to reach our highest DROP potential of 4th lowest record and subsequent chances at the #1 overall pick .

Great:

1) Charlotte with epic 4th quarter meltdown. A road win here would have really hurt our DROP potential considerably.

2) Both Detroit and Milwaukee won to really obscure our playoff chances. The quicker this gap widens the more likely we are to let players nurse injuries or shut them down to go for the serious tankage. DROPCITY.

3) Minnesota with a nice upset win over Denver to bridge that gap to a mere 2.5 games. Minnesota has played above .500 ball for their last 20 games this DROPspot is on the radar.

4) Miami officially DROPPED us last night by upsetting Houston. We can go ahead and put that DROP on the board in big bold permanent marker. They are on fire and are almost sure to play better than .500 ball the rest of the way.

5) New Orleans upset Memphis on the road. Huge for our DROPTOP as they slide only 1.5 games behind us. They are playing .500 ball the last 26 games so this DROP is well within reach


Bad:

No real bad news last night. Dallas lost but is likely to still pass us and was mitigated by the fact they lost to Detroit.

NYK lost. They are a team we could find ourselves deep in trench warfare with and in need to bring out the tank.

Interesting fact: The tank was originally designed by Leonardo DaVinci in the 15th century shortly after his arrest for soliciting a male prostitute



My Jokic Progression Signature
-2014 2nd Rd Draft Pick
-2016 All ROOK 1st Team
-2017 All NBA 3rd Team
-2018 All NBA 2nd Team
-2019 All NBA 1st Team

The all star break will change everything. We'll be at the 7th seed by the end of the season and beat the Celtics in the first round

Mystical Apples wrote:Sorry Tanktruthers but over the past 2 seasons the Hornets are +9.4 with Kemba, Marco, Lamb, Nic, MKG, Marvin, Frank, Cody and replacement level production from Roy or Al. Which BTW is easily a top 10 NBA core over that span.

And watch out if Cody returns, CHA adds a 2nd handler from the wing, Frank backs up Cody, and everyone slides up to their natural positions.

We haven't had Marco for two seasons and arguably not MKG either due to injuries. And anyway you get this roster as a top 10 core sounds about as reliable a data analysis as shaking the magic 8 ball.

GlenRiceARoni wrote:Great:

2) Both Detroit and Milwaukee won to really obscure our playoff chances. The quicker this gap widens the more likely we are to let players nurse injuries or shut them down to go for the serious tankage. DROPCITY.

3) Minnesota with a nice upset win over Denver to bridge that gap to a mere 2.5 games. Minnesota has played above .500 ball for their last 20 games this DROPspot is on the radar.

What's interesting is that Charlotte, Minnesota, and Detroit are all coached by anti-tankers from the Van Gundy family tree. Thibs I highly doubt considers it, SVG might listen to the writing on the wall cos he's GM also and Clifford is too busy setting his game lineups for the next two seasons.