From Zach Lowe Today...
Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2017 4:22 pm
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18699588/zach-lowe-10-things-like-featuring-charlotte-hornets-nba
10 things I like and don't like
1. The Hornets
Everything folks worried about after Charlotte turned down Boston's Godfather offer for the Frank Kaminsky pick has come to bear. The Hornets are 7-19 since just before Christmas, and they have one of the bleakest long-term outlooks in the league. That hurts to say.
The moment they traded Noah Vonleh for Nic Batum, the Hornets trapped themselves in a dilemma: Either let Batum walk, or pay him close to the max just as the cap would skyrocket -- lifting max deals with it. You could justify the deal. Batum is a very good player in his prime, and Charlotte is not a destination that could bank on luring anyone better.
But it's clear Batum is miscast as a second option next to the dogged and always-improving Kemba Walker. Batum is shooting a career-worst 44 percent on 2s, and an ugly 35 percent out of the pick-and-roll -- with a ghastly turnover rate on the play. Batum has coughed up the ball on 26.5 percent of his pick-and-rolls that have ended Charlotte possessions; among 150 guys who have run at least 50 of those suckers, only five have worse turnover rates, per Synergy.
You cannot give him the ball and expect him to get a bucket, and holy hell, do the Hornets need a bucket-getter.
Only about 12 percent of Batum's shots have come in the restricted area, the lowest mark of his career, per Basketball-Reference. He averages just 2.3 drives per game. Only 26 of the 86 guys logging at least 30 minutes per game record fewer drives -- and all but six of those 26 are big men.
Batum is a gifted all-around player -- a triple-double threat. But the Hornets need more. On too many nights, Walker is their only source of oxygen -- the only guy who can break his man down, get into the lane, and create something. Defenses happily switch across every other position, confident Batum, Kaminsky, Marvin Williams, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist won't do any damage against smaller players.
Everyone around Walker has plateaued or declined. Williams' 3-point shooting is down after a career year. The MKG leap hasn't happened; smart teams hide plodding power forwards on him, stick quicker wings on Williams, and switch all of Charlotte's buzzing Williams-centric screening action.
Charlotte compensated early in the season with a heap of free throws, but that well has dried up a bit.
In the bigger picture, every move Charlotte has made over the past three years has screamed: PLEASE BASKETBALL GODS, LET US WIN 45 GAMES! That's meant turning down four picks, including one of Boston's Brooklyn picks, to draft Kaminsky; going all-in on Batum; flipping last year's No. 22 pick for Marco Belinelli; and most recently, swapping two backup centers on short-term deals for one -- Miles Plumlee -- carrying a long-term eight-figure salary.
Charlotte could be capped out through 2019. That's hard to do. We all know the defense for the Belinelli swap: picks in the 20s typically return very little, and Belinelli is a proven rotation player. But he's a proven backup who's not moving the needle for a so-so team. He's not Thaddeus Young -- a proven starter for whom Indiana swapped the No. 20 pick in the same draft.
And for a team with so few long-term building blocks, a 25 percent chance at someone who might matter in five years -- and serve the first four of them on a cheapo rookie contract -- is more valuable than a veteran with a 100 percent chance of being a serviceable reserve today.
Plumlee is a nice backup center. So is Kaminsky.
Things will get better. The Hornets really miss Cody Zeller. He's their Patrick Patterson -- a middling stats jack-of-many-trades who makes life easier for everyone around him with vicious screens and relentless rim-running. But a 24-32 team counting on Cody Zeller as a savior is in a dark, dark place.
Kaminsky will be a different player when his 3-point shot comes around. Steve Clifford is a great coach. Rich Cho and Chad Buchanan, the top dogs in the front office, are smart dudes who will nail a draft pick in the middle of the first round at some point in the next few years.
In the meantime, Charlotte should resist the temptation to trade another future pick for a 30-something quick fix like Lou Williams. Search out smaller moves, try to rally for the No. 8 spot, and take a swing in the lottery if you don't pull it off.