Do You think Kemba is resigning with us?

[316Hornets]

You should've stopped before trying to make this point.

Why? That’s part of the point. If we don’t sign Kemba we are back at the top of the lottery. And we have historically drafted better after pick 5, even if ever so slightly better. We choose Kemba with the 7th? Miles with the 12th (12th or 13th going off memory). Bacon and Graham were 2nd rounders. Tobias Harris was like 21st although we traded him. Yes, we’ve had a lot of busts after 5 too, but we shouldn’t expect to do better at the top of the draft by making Walker expendable.

You're working under some weird fallacy here.

Picking poorly in Draft X has zero bearing on Draft Y. It's nowhere near that simple. It doesn't matter that MKG was a bust. Does that mean you'd want to trade the #2 pick this year (Ja Morant or RJ Barrett) if we had it for pick 9 (uh.... Nassir Little?) because we've "had better luck there"?

There have been numerous value-based studies on the respective draft positions, and they always flesh out with a similar rate of value decay. An example:



Picking poorly with all of MKG, Morrison, and Zeller is an almost unheard of level of bad luck with regards to expected return.


I get that people want to be "anti-tank" and all that. Cool. But please don't make the false argument that a higher pick isn't more useful than a lower one.

One thing I like about this chart that I think is relevant to our pick this year. The line is pretty flat after about pick 10. With the team so devoid of talent, it would seem smart to trade back and pick up two guys in the later part of the first as opposed to one at 12. Something like our #12 for Brooklyn's #17 and #27. By that chart, #17 and #27 is worth about the same value and maybe we'll get lucky and hit one of the outliers.

Giving Kemba a lot of young, fresh faces to play around could make the cap doom and gloom a little less gloomy. #17, #27, and #36, surely we'd pick someone that would be decent.

[Liver_Pooty]

I think the poll needs to be reset

[Lwcasu]

You should've stopped before trying to make this point.

Why? That’s part of the point. If we don’t sign Kemba we are back at the top of the lottery. And we have historically drafted better after pick 5, even if ever so slightly better. We choose Kemba with the 7th? Miles with the 12th (12th or 13th going off memory). Bacon and Graham were 2nd rounders. Tobias Harris was like 21st although we traded him. Yes, we’ve had a lot of busts after 5 too, but we shouldn’t expect to do better at the top of the draft by making Walker expendable.

You're working under some weird fallacy here.

Picking poorly in Draft X has zero bearing on Draft Y. It's nowhere near that simple. It doesn't matter that MKG was a bust. Does that mean you'd want to trade the #2 pick this year (Ja Morant or RJ Barrett) if we had it for pick 9 (uh.... Nassir Little?) because we've "had better luck there"?

There have been numerous value-based studies on the respective draft positions, and they always flesh out with a similar rate of value decay. An example:



Picking poorly with all of MKG, Morrison, and Zeller is an almost unheard of level of bad luck with regards to expected return.


I get that people want to be "anti-tank" and all that. Cool. But please don't make the false argument that a higher pick isn't more useful than a lower one.

My whole argument is we should keep Kemba, and I’m using the draft as a representation of how it could go wrong. This just so happens to be our past. Im not going to fully agree with the statistical data. It’s obvious there is more value at the top. All we need to add is another all star.

Just because the stats say if you suck then you have a better chance of getting an all-star level player doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

I think the franchise is in a better position to try to build around Kemba then let him walk. 1) Nothing is guaranteed. 2) It hurts our image letting a star who wants to be here walk. 3) I think it’s possible the franchise cannot survive tanking again. It’s subjective but I’m sure it’s a strong sentiment many agree with.

And fwiw, not disagreeing with your graph, but you used statistics before 2013. Just so happens 2013 was an anomaly. 2014 will probably also turn out different than the expected. 2016-2017 are interesting.

It’s interesting the best player is not always at the top. I think that is at least significant for the discussion.

2013 Giannis. Gobert and Giannis are by far the highest win share contributors from this draft. This year will not follow the WORP chart.
2014 Looks like Embiid is the best player, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Jokic when all is said and done. Really a matter of opinion at this point with Embiids injury history. Capella and Jokic are by far leading win share here. I don’t think this year is going to follow the WORP.
2015 Best were in the top 5. Looks like a normal draft.
2016 Top three heavy but Siakam may be the best player. A lot of talent 6-12. Siakam, Brogdon, Levert, amd Dejumte Murray all went later. Will be interesting to analyze this down the road.
2017 Tatum could be the best player, but both Mitchell and Kuzma were much later and have had similar careers production wize. A lot of guys who greatly increase their teams Win Share towards the end of the middle and end of the 1st. John Collins, Jarrett Allen,
Donovan Mitchell, Kuzma, OG, Derrick White Adebayo, Josh Hart. Highly doubt this follows the WORP chart.
2018-Stays with the chart except it’s worth noting guys in general didn’t add much to W/S.

My theory is as basketball grows, we are stepping into a time period when we are going to find more gems later in the 1st, and 2nd as we have more guys internationally with less info on their game. Eventually it’ll correct, but I strongly believe now is the time to get gems all over the place.

I’m not able to look at WROP for that period but I believe it would be interesting to further investigate. Choosing statistics before 2013 is kind of cherry picking. It’s also relevant to say that 6 years (2013-2018) is a small sample size.

[NCHeels2008]

I'd rather have the second best player on a championship level team on my team already. We probably don't turn the corner, but ESPECIALLY with the new odds and even beforeso, that lane is full of loser teams. If Kemba actually does leave you guys can circle jerk as we will have cap space (that nobody will want to sign here) and a **** record and high picks for the next 5-10 years.

[316Hornets]

I'd rather have the second best player on a championship level team on my team already. We probably don't turn the corner, but ESPECIALLY with the new odds and even beforeso, that lane is full of loser teams. If Kemba actually does leave you guys can circle jerk as we will have cap space (that nobody will want to sign here) and a **** record and high picks for the next 5-10 years.

Don't you see a problem that one player is worth that much to the team's success? And, yet even with that player at 12 mil, the team has found little to no success outside of Kemba's individual accomplishments. That seems like a train destined to crash, do you really expect signing Kemba to a 200 mil deal is going to change that. We've been trying to get lucky in the draft for years. Vonleh, Monk, Kaminsky. The reason we picked those guys was because of Kemba. Maybe he is the problem and not the solution.

[JDuaneWayne]

Don't you see a problem that one player is worth that much to the team's success? And, yet even with that player at 12 mil, the team has found little to no success outside of Kemba's individual accomplishments. That seems like a train destined to crash, do you really expect signing Kemba to a 200 mil deal is going to change that. We've been trying to get lucky in the draft for years. Vonleh, Monk, Kaminsky. The reason we picked those guys was because of Kemba. Maybe he is the problem and not the solution.

What makes you think we picked these guys for Kemba? Neither Vonleh or Monk were expected to be there when we picked.

At this point its beating a dead horse, will we be worse off with Kemba at $40M than $12M? No doubt in the short term at least.

It's time to sit back and enjoy the draft and let the process play out. This franchise would be a playoff contender for years if they had drafted Mitchell. There are opportunities to improve later in the draft you just have to be good at what you do, we have no idea how well this regime is at drafting.

Look at the Knicks and imagine they're a small market, that could easily be us. No thanks

The day Kemba signs that contract though I'm finding my best deal for Monk and moving on, while his rookie deal still has some value, because the two of them just aren't built to play together.

[NCHeels2008]

I'd rather have the second best player on a championship level team on my team already. We probably don't turn the corner, but ESPECIALLY with the new odds and even beforeso, that lane is full of loser teams. If Kemba actually does leave you guys can circle jerk as we will have cap space (that nobody will want to sign here) and a **** record and high picks for the next 5-10 years.

Don't you see a problem that one player is worth that much to the team's success? And, yet even with that player at 12 mil, the team has found little to no success outside of Kemba's individual accomplishments. That seems like a train destined to crash, do you really expect signing Kemba to a 200 mil deal is going to change that. We've been trying to get lucky in the draft for years. Vonleh, Monk, Kaminsky. The reason we picked those guys was because of Kemba. Maybe he is the problem and not the solution.

if he is such a losing player why was he 3rd team All NBA? Why does our team fall apart every time he hits the pine?

[amcoolio]

Stop with the doom and gloom. The old terrible regime of Cho/Clifford are gone. Give Mitch time, he has had one season with zero flexibility. 41M in expirings this season, 41M in expirings next. All of our 1st round picks. We can make things happen.

[countryboi]

Stop with the doom and gloom. The old terrible regime of Cho/Clifford are gone. Give Mitch time, he has had one season with zero flexibility. 41M in expirings this season, 41M in expirings next. All of our 1st round picks. We can make things happen.

Mitch's drafting has been one of his bright spots...he really knows how to pick late rounders.

[Lwcasu]

Don't you see a problem that one player is worth that much to the team's success? And, yet even with that player at 12 mil, the team has found little to no success outside of Kemba's individual accomplishments. That seems like a train destined to crash, do you really expect signing Kemba to a 200 mil deal is going to change that. We've been trying to get lucky in the draft for years. Vonleh, Monk, Kaminsky. The reason we picked those guys was because of Kemba. Maybe he is the problem and not the solution.

What makes you think we picked these guys for Kemba? Neither Vonleh or Monk were expected to be there when we picked.

At this point its beating a dead horse, will we be worse off with Kemba at $40M than $12M? No doubt in the short term at least.

It's time to sit back and enjoy the draft and let the process play out. This franchise would be a playoff contender for years if they had drafted Mitchell. There are opportunities to improve later in the draft you just have to be good at what you do, we have no idea how well this regime is at drafting.

Look at the Knicks and imagine they're a small market, that could easily be us. No thanks

The day Kemba signs that contract though I'm finding my best deal for Monk and moving on, while his rookie deal still has some value, because the two of them just aren't built to play together.

The end is the truth. If Kemba resigns then we need to part with Monk. They can’t play together because they’ll both get exposed on defense. And if Kemba has the ball, Monk is just gonna sit there and do nothing.

[fatlever]

Read on Twitter

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Cody updates... read his thread. Lol.

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[Bassman]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Cody updates... read his thread. Lol.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Hmmm, perhaps Cody is sending us a secret message in this. Perhaps he is implying that the support to keep Kemba here via an enormous salary is NOT supported well enough, either by the public or....just maybe...by the team!

[predators]

I'll be shocked if we don't offer him the Super Max, he is the only reason to buy season ticks.

Though, If I were him I would go to a contending team and get the recognition I deserve for marginally less money, and hope to make up the difference with more exposure.

It's not a 1 year contract dude. Lots can change in 5 years.

Isaiah Thomas and John Wall put up similar stats at some point in their career. Where are they now?

Can this team survive something happening to Kemba and eating 40 mil in dead money for multiple years? If not, there won't be any season ticks to buy, at least in Charlotte.

I agree, but this team has been trying to take shortcuts to being good since signing Al Jefferson. I don't see why it'll stop now. They are going to offer Kemba the super max its the type of move this franchise makes. I think the best case "realistic" scenario is we trade Batum for another overpaid player that fits what the team needs like Gordon Hayward, and we maybe eek out of the first round.