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3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread

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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#321 » by Braggins » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:55 pm

yosemiteben wrote:I don't understand why PJ is so good at blocking shots, he doesn't have great size or wingspan, but damn dude has good instincts.

His wingspan at the combine was 7'2.25", which is exceptional for a 6'7" player. Thats 3.5" better than Zellers wingspan.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#322 » by Soul Rebel » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:55 pm

I really hope at some point while Zeller is out that we see Richards get some run at the 5 with PJ. I saw a couple of mentions of the two of them playing well off each other at UK. I know rookies have to earn their time, but losing Zeller for a bit would be a great time to throw Richards maybe 8-10 mins a night with PJ.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#323 » by JMAC3 » Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:57 pm

yosemiteben wrote:I don't understand why PJ is so good at blocking shots, he doesn't have great size or wingspan, but damn dude has good instincts.


He has like a 7-2 wingspan which is awesome for a guy that is 6-8
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#324 » by yosemiteben » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:00 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:I don't understand why PJ is so good at blocking shots, he doesn't have great size or wingspan, but damn dude has good instincts.


He has like a 7-2 wingspan which is awesome for a guy that is 6-8

Oh really? Didn't realize that, yeah he does have a baller wingspan.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#325 » by BigSlam » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:16 pm

yosemiteben wrote:I don't understand why PJ is so good at blocking shots, he doesn't have great size or wingspan, but damn dude has good instincts.

A lot of his blocks aren't really rim protecting blocks though, right?

His block numbers are also significantly propped up by that 6 block night against Atlanta - and a lot of those blocks were more of the deflection type than true paint/rim protecting blocks.

I mean, PJ had 5 games IN A ROW of not recoding a single block.

He had 6 blocks in that 1 game against the Hawks and has had 10 in all of the other games this season combined.

Another reason why I keep saying that while the numbers look nice, sport is not played on paper.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#326 » by JMAC3 » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:24 pm

BigSlam wrote:
Another reason why I keep saying that while the numbers look nice, sport is not played on paper.


Agreed, but when you consider he is often playing against larger players then he is this season to have 16 blocks in 11 games is impressive regardless.

PJ obviously has a lot of room to grow, but he is such an awesome fit for the modern NBA. Can shoot the three, block shots, decent rebounder, punish smaller switches in the post and somewhat switch on defense.

I know the Rockets suck this season, but in years past I would ask "how awesome would this guy be on the Rockets?"

His ability to do a little bit of everything really makes building successful lineups around him easy moving forward.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#327 » by luciano-davidwesley » Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:36 am

The one area he is clearly below average is rebounding. Other than that he is very solid generally.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#328 » by JMAC3 » Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:22 pm

luciano-davidwesley wrote:The one area he is clearly below average is rebounding. Other than that he is very solid generally.


Yeah I suppose so. Rebounding is one of the hardest stats for me to extrapolate the value in.

We have more a team approach to rebounding with Melo obviously pitching in a ton, Biz does alright some games, Miles is a capable rebounder, PJ has several games with 8+ boards, Terry is a good rebounding guard.

If we did have a guy like Drummond lets say. Would we really be that much better of a rebounding team? Or would he just eat into everybody elses rebounds on the team? If he had 12 boards a game, how many additional rebounds would we be getting a game? 2? 3?
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#329 » by BigSlam » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:27 pm

JMAC3 wrote:If we did have a guy like Drummond lets say. Would we really be that much better of a rebounding team? Or would he just eat into everybody elses rebounds on the team? If he had 12 boards a game, how many additional rebounds would we be getting a game? 2? 3?

It’s not just about the increased number of rebounds, it’s the freedom it allows others like Melo and Terry and Miles etc to do other things (like box out their own guys) because they don’t have to worry about rebounding as much themselves.

So a dominate big who controls the boards allows the others to get out in transition quicker because they aren’t worried about having to rebound at a high rate themselves.

It also conserves their energy they are expending on rebounding.

And a dominate big doesn’t just add rebounding, it’s the shot blocking, shot altering, paint protection and screen setting as well.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#330 » by DY_nasty » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:35 pm

BigSlam wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:If we did have a guy like Drummond lets say. Would we really be that much better of a rebounding team? Or would he just eat into everybody elses rebounds on the team? If he had 12 boards a game, how many additional rebounds would we be getting a game? 2? 3?

It’s not just about the increased number of rebounds, it’s the freedom it allows others like Melo and Terry and Miles etc to do other things (like box out their own guys) because they don’t have to worry about rebounding as much themselves.

So a dominate big who controls the boards allows the others to get out in transition quicker because they aren’t worried about having to rebound at a high rate themselves.

It also conserves their energy they are expending on rebounding.

And a dominate big doesn’t just add rebounding, it’s the shot blocking, shot altering, paint protection and screen setting as well.

yeah. it was maddening last night watching tae and rozier trying to win impossible battles in attempts to box out while PJ is committed elsewhere
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#331 » by JMAC3 » Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:13 pm

Overall I am happy with PJ so far this year. Even with his minutes going down this year, his raw numbers are higher than they were last year. His passing is improved, rim protection and rebounding rates are both up. He is starting to shoot the three much better and now that he is getting in shape his minutes per game are back over 30 mpg for month of January.

His per 36 numbers are up from 14.5pt, 6.5 rpg, 2.5 assists, .9 blocks last year
to
His per 36 numbers this year are 16.1pt,8.9 rpg, 3.7assists, 1.8 blocks per game.

His shooting percentages are lower after getting off to a bad start, but he is rounding into shape. Out of 14 games played this year he has 10+ rebounds in 5 of those outings.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#332 » by BigSlam » Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:09 pm

Unless a player is playing 36MPG then what’s the point of spruiking per 36MPG projections?

I’ve never understood that.

MPM made a classic example of that the other night in a GT related to Vernon.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#333 » by JMAC3 » Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:32 pm

BigSlam wrote:Unless a player is playing 36MPG then what’s the point of spruiking per 36MPG projections?

I’ve never understood that.

MPM made a classic example of that the other night in a GT related to Vernon.


It obviously shouldn't be used for a guy who is playing under 10 minutes per game.

But I think it is a useful stat when comparing the same guy year to year when his minutes are slightly different or comparing a guy who plays 23 minutes to a guy who plays 31 minutes.

You have to know how to apply it for it to tell an accurate story, it is not relevant in every single case.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#334 » by BigSlam » Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:21 pm

JMAC3 wrote:...But I think it (per 36) is a useful stat when comparing the same guy year to year when his minutes are slightly different

Then take the average of the mins played between the two years and use that as your MPG. Going up to 36 is disingenuous.

JMAC3 wrote:But I think it is a useful stat when (snip) comparing a guy who plays 23 minutes to a guy who plays 31 minutes.

That’s the absolute worst time to use it.

Maybe the 23min guy only plays 23mins because that’s all he can play (prone to fouls, gets gassed quickly, only plays one side of the ball).

If a player is good enough to play 36mins then chances are he will.

And if he’s not...
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#335 » by JMAC3 » Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:37 pm

BigSlam wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:...But I think it (per 36) is a useful stat when comparing the same guy year to year when his minutes are slightly different

Then take the average of the mins played between the two years and use that as your MPG. Going up to 36 is disingenuous.

JMAC3 wrote:But I think it is a useful stat when (snip) comparing a guy who plays 23 minutes to a guy who plays 31 minutes.

That’s the absolute worst time to use it.

Maybe the 23min guy only plays 23mins because that’s all he can play (prone to fouls, gets gassed quickly, only plays one side of the ball).

If a player is good enough to play 36mins then chances are he will.

And if he’s not...


Not sure you are in the right here man, an entire basketball community uses this as stat and it is one that is used across many different basketball platforms/sites. Clearly there is some merit to it as an evaluation tool.

There are currently 7 guys in the entire league averaging over 36 minutes per game, I think you are looking at that number far too much. It could be per 30 minutes and be just as valuable as a tool, it is basically a tool to tell you how valuable is this guy on a per minute basis. The further you get away from 36 minutes played, the less likely it is to be accurate (hence the 5-10 mpg guys).

Great example is Jrue Holiday playing 31.8 mpg compared to FVV at 35.8 mpg. FVV is not the better player, but because of team needs/rotations/coaching styles he is getting more minutes. It is a great way to compare their numbers on an even playing field.

I do agree with you on there are some guys that it may not be applicable to, but for the most part it makes sense.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#336 » by Braggins » Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:59 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Overall I am happy with PJ so far this year.

I agree. He was undeniably trash at the beginning of the year and he still has some kinks to work out in terms of consistency and decision making, but hes been playing well for a sophomore as of late and I expect the trend to continue.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#337 » by SWedd523 » Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:53 pm

I see per36 as relatively useful when comparing guys who are near a certain # of minutes.

You wouldn't compare an 8mpg player to a 32mpg player because there's too much disparity. However, if guys are within 5-10 then I see the value. Additionally, I find the most value when looking at the same guy over different years.

Comparing PJs per36 as a rookie vs sophomore is a good way to see where he's improving, despite his minutes not being equal.

Per "36" is an arbitrary number too, you can average them out to Per30 or whatever.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#338 » by James Gatz » Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:28 pm

SWedd523 wrote:I see per36 as relatively useful when comparing guys who are near a certain # of minutes.

You wouldn't compare an 8mpg player to a 32mpg player because there's too much disparity. However, if guys are within 5-10 then I see the value. Additionally, I find the most value when looking at the same guy over different years.

Comparing PJs per36 as a rookie vs sophomore is a good way to see where he's improving, despite his minutes not being equal.

Per "36" is an arbitrary number too, you can average them out to Per30 or whatever.


Agreed with Swedd and JMAC about per 36. It's a useful tool comparing players where one plays 23 mpg and the other 31 mpg.

Slam, to your point, you have to take in consideration things like fouls. Wiseman is a good example. He's averaging 19/10 per 36 but 5.6 fouls. There is no way he'd be able to ever play 36 minutes currently.

It's not an end all be all stat, there isn't one, but it's certainly useful to look at as a way to have a comparison baseline.
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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#339 » by BigSlam » Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:29 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Not sure you are in the right here man, an entire basketball community uses this as stat and it is one that is used across many different basketball platforms/sites. Clearly there is some merit to it as an evaluation tool.

So is the +/- stat which I think is the most stupid and fundamentally flawed stat in the history of sports.

JMAC3 wrote:There are currently 7 guys in the entire league averaging over 36 minutes per game

Right - so all you have done is reinforce my stance that it is a stupid stat to use. Why use per 36 when so few players actually play 36mins.

JMAC3 wrote:It could be per 30 minutes and be just as valuable as a tool, it is basically a tool to tell you how valuable is this guy on a per minute basis.

But that is not accurate either. You have a tendency of excluding so much context with the stats you keep presenting. At the risk of repeating myself: Some players are not capable of playing 30-35MPG, so why use that as a marker? Why forecast someone as playing 30 or 32PMG when in reality they can't wont play that many mins a game because of their flaws?

JMAC3 wrote:Great example is Jrue Holiday playing 31.8 mpg compared to FVV at 35.8 mpg. FVV is not the better player, but because of team needs/rotations/coaching styles he is getting more minutes. It is a great way to compare their numbers on an even playing field.

In that sense, the application doesn't apply to PJ (who you used it on) because PJ averaged 29MPG last season and is averaging 30MPG this season - so pretty much a wash. Why gift him 6more MPG that he doesn't log? You're essentially giving him an extra half a quarter.

Either way, I agree with you - PJ has looked better these past 2 or 3 games (especially compared to how he played in Dec). I don't buy the shot blocking you have quoted as it was propped up by that one 6 block game and a lot of his blocks aren't rim protecting blocks but more deflections above the chest. He has been more physical lately though.


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Re: 3J Swishington: The PJ Washington Jr. Thread 

Post#340 » by JMAC3 » Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:57 pm

BigSlam wrote:Right - so all you have done is reinforce my stance that it is a stupid stat to use. Why use per 36 when so few players actually play 36mins.


I think you just do not understand the application of this stat. It is not a stat that says "if you play this guy 36 minutes he will average these numbers" and that appears to be how you view it.

It is simply a way to look at guys production on a per minute basis. It is no different then if you said he averages x amount of points per 100 possessions. It doesn't matter if all the possessions come in one game or 3 games, it is simply a common denominator to evaluate player x vs player y.

In the example of PJ, when minutes are so close it is easy way to simply find out how much better at rebounding he is in an instant, instead of saying "well he is averaging 2.5 fewer minutes so let me subtract half a rebound,1 point and .3 assists". It does that conversion for you.

What you will learn is no stat is perfect, and there will always be loopholes and one offs that discredit a stat here or there.... but that doesn't mean the stat is worthless.

To your point about +/- , sure over a small sample size it can be affected by the guys you play with or if a team hits 4/5 threes in the 3 minutes you play etc... but over the course of 40-80 games that stat should start to notice trends and give you insight into a situation.
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