Snidely FC wrote:Well, here's what bothers me: the team finally evidenced some fiscal logic by not paying Kemba Walker a contract the team would later regret...but instead of continuing with newfound monetary restraint, the team splashed 19 large on an essentially unproven player
You tell us Rozier is da bomb (I hope you are right by the way) but you're talking about a four year vet who as a bench point guard has a field goal average below 40%
Rozier boosters point to the 2018 playoffs as proof of how great he will be with starter's minutes. That was a 16 game run two seasons ago. Bismack Biyombo got his contract based on one playoff run with Toronto.
So, color me wait and see.
The opportunity costs for this move are significant. You argue Rozier is better than any one other free agent we could have signed. I counter with, we could have signed 2 free agents instead. Not just Emmanuel Mudiay or Delon Wright, but both. Build via depth, rather than turn again to hero ball and expect one player to be the answer.
We can differ on a guy like Emmanuel Mudiay, for instance. He looked an improved player to me last year. He had a 45 FG% last year. At 6'5 adds a different dimension (size) to our PG depth, being bigger and younger than Rozier...but the main thing is he signed at UTA for the veteran minimum. You can say Rozier will look better as a starter. Well so did Mudiay last year, and so will Delon Wright, also 6'5, in DAL, who will be getting less than half of Rozier. Low risk high reward in other words. The type of cheap gamble the team should be taking right now.
There are other risks with Rozier. By paying him like the team's best player, they didn't just sign for Rozier they gave him the keys to the team...and the green light to play hero ball. That wasn't going to happen if you, say, signed Mudiay + Delon Wright. There is a much higher chance that Rozier's usage impacts the development of Miles, PJ, Bacon, etc. Our young guys were the silver lining with Kemba's exit. Is Rozier the one to unlock their talent or will he be a ball hog to their detriment? Lastly, going forward, this team ought to have top 5 picks, maybe even Top 3 picks, the next few years. If bpa is a stud PG - one whose upside is Conference Championship not limping into the 8 spot - do we pass him over because we have Rozier?
I'm not saying all of the above will happen, but how do we know it won't? Kupchak said adding Rozier is like adding a lottery pick. In a way he is right. He has flashed talent. There are all the same risks you get with Rozier that you get with a lottery pick, but as others have already noted lottery picks don't get paid $19M.
I mean, I hope Rozier works out, I really do. You seem to know him as a player @bigreddog, and hearing you tell how great he is gives me more optimism. But despite all the above opportunity costs, the real crux of the problem to me is that the team asked its fans to be cool with not paying the franchise's goat, FINALLY evidencing good fiscal and roster management, but instead of continuing to show caution, they immediately turned around and asked us to swallow giving Terry Rozier the biggest contract on the roster ($58M v $52M remaining on Batum contract). Its like, they get it!...no, wait, they don't get it! And I'm so sick of that. It's head snapping, and disappointing because it feels like more of the same.
I don't have a strong take on your post. I mostly agree with the sentiment, though i prob disagree with a few things like the idea of turning it over to a failed project like Mudiay or a scoring guard like Delon Wright (a player i like, but isnt a true point guard at all).
Is $19m a slight overpay, perhaps.. I think we all agree we'd be happier with more like 4yr/$60-$64m... but the money isnt all that important here as we aren't going to contend during this 3 year window anyway... and we did structure it declining which will make him relatively movable after 1.5 or 2 years and very movable after 2.5 years if we decide to go that route.
With all our expiring contracts we are probably going to look to flip them into NBA players... or alternatively we may try to chase free agency... or we may try to develop young talent through the draft...or most likely some combination of all three...
In order to do that we're going to need real NBA players, particularly at the PG position. You can't even run a system and promote healthy offensive habits for other young players if you don't have a real live NBA PG...
So now we have a coach from a successful franchise and a Point Guard from a successful franchise...that doesn't necessarily mean either will succeed here... but it does mean we've created an environment where at least some people have a clue how successful teams operate.
Thats a lot different then just Drafting the next Andrew Wiggins or hiring the next Sam Vincent or whatever the heck our other plans were.
ANd i think if you really think about it, Terry Rozier nearly led his team to the NBA Finals about 14 months ago. So we've already seen that you can win fairly big in this league with a guy like him at the helm. What was his supporting cast? Jaylen Brown/Jason Tatum/Al Horford? So two solid, but not spectacular lottery picks, and a ~2nd tier free agent? With rotation guys like Aaron Baynes, Semi Ojeheyele, Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart?
This is a guy who played some big-time winning basketball. No, he's not gonna light up the league like Kyrie Irving or Kemba Walker in the regular season... but you could ARGUE that he's better equipped for postseason style basketball than either of those guys...and that his strengths and style of play somewhat offsets some of that talent disparity...and that by paying him HALF as much as those two guys you can afford to put talent around him on the wings and find a crafty veteran like Horford to help run the offense and anchor the defense.
Like would anyone be SHOCKED if we were able to parlay some of the expiring (or soon to be expiring) contracts of Marvin, Zeller, MKG, Biyombo, and Batum for a few decent players from teams looking to rebuild? Would anyone be shocked if we landed one decent free agent on par with Al Horford (Im not talking about kevin durant/lebron type pipe dreams)? Would anyone be shocked if guys like Bridges/Washington develop into useful rotation players? Would anyone be shocked if we draft in the top 5 during the next season or two and land someone as good as Tatum or Brown?
I dont understand why we have to tear it down to the baseboards and win 8 games next season to "rebuild" especially now that they've changed the lottery odds. It's okay to take a chance on a young, promising player.... In fact i think its a much better risk than maxing out guys like Andrew Wiggins or Devin Booker.... or trading for trash like Brandon Ingram....
The truth of the matter is that not all good teams got there by tearing it down Sam Hinkie style... im okay with that strategy, but it does make basketball completely unwatchable for 3-5 years..... there are a LOT of teams who have taken on reclamation projects like Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace...paired them with a decent lottery pick like Tayshaun Prince, traded for Rip Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace and then filled in the gaps with solid rotation vets like corliss williamson and young foreigners like mehmet okur....
I could absolutely envision Rozier running the point on a winning team. Because I've seen it.
I can't see that with Emanuel Mudiay. I can see him putting up stats (and not even particularly good ones) on 17 win Knicks basement dwellers. Already Seen that too.