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2021 Hornets Playoff Watch

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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#21 » by Hornet Mania » Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:36 pm

Soul Rebel wrote:
Hornet Mania wrote:
amcoolio wrote:
Nope. Technically if the west is good enough we could finish as the 8th seed, play in the play in, lose, and have the 9th or 10th best odds for the lottery.


The fans of cellar teams are going to lose their **** if a play-in team ends up winning the lotto :lol:


Different sport, but I'm pretty confident that the Rangers did this in the NHL and ended up with a generational talent at #1 w/ LaFreniere.


Wasn't that the one that was especially brutal because when the lotto happened all they knew was that the team that won was in the bubble? :lol:
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#22 » by Soul Rebel » Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:39 pm

Hornet Mania wrote:
Soul Rebel wrote:
Hornet Mania wrote:
The fans of cellar teams are going to lose their **** if a play-in team ends up winning the lotto :lol:


Different sport, but I'm pretty confident that the Rangers did this in the NHL and ended up with a generational talent at #1 w/ LaFreniere.


Wasn't that the one that was especially brutal because when the lotto happened all they knew was that the team that won was in the bubble? :lol:


Yup.... it was crazy how the suspense was handled. :D
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#23 » by yosemiteben » Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:28 am

Ls tonight by TOR, NYK, BOS, and CHI.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#24 » by euphorbus » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:49 am

Now tied for fifth place with the Celtics. I expect that to change once we head out West again, in the near future.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#25 » by Braggins » Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:27 am

They are now 5th in the East after the Celtics loss to the Jazz. Good chance they immediately go back to tied after the Denver game tomorrow, but oh well.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#26 » by CuseMayne » Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:07 am

Celtics, Bulls, Raptors and Cavs all lost tonight as well as the Pacers beating the Heat leaving us still tied for 6th with the Knicks heading into our game against the Clippers. As long as we can hover around striking distance during this tough stretch we have a real shot at the 5-8 seed IMO.

It definitely is frustrating when some guys seem to have a stretch of games where they don't play how they usually do. There's gonna be highs and lows to the season. It's an unusual year and it's pretty absurd that we were scheduled for another west coast road trip so soon after that last one. Just gotta take it one game at a time and hope for continued growth and luck with our health. Buzz Buzz!!!
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#27 » by CuseMayne » Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:31 am

Day 1 of life with no Melo (Eric Collins said it, not me :lol: )

I mean.....

Hornets W
------------------
Hawks L (ends an 8 game winning streak, lost by 9 after blowing a 22 point lead late in the 3rd Q to the Clippers)
Celtics L
Pacers L
Bulls L
Raptors L
And sure I'll include Cavs L

We are squarely 6th in the East. Hawks and Heat are .5 ahead of us and tied for 4th. Knicks and Celtics are .5 behind us and tied for 7th. Then we've got the Pacers and the Bulls 2 games behind us and tied for 9th. Raptors 4.5 behind us in 11th (missing the play-in if playoffs started tomorrow), and the Cavs and Wizards 5.5 behind us and tied for 12th.
...
Without us becoming sellers at the trade deadline, and knowing that MJ is allergic to tanking, it's looking like we've got our eyes on the playoffs without our rookie savior. But will MJ and Kupchak decide to make a win now move? I guess we'll see by Thursday. We are pretty well positioned here, and are essentially the same team + Gordon Hayward as last year, narrowly missing the bubble. It's too far into the season to tank IMO, and I'll be rooting for us to continue grinding it out. We're gonna have to be scrappy and defensively minded like the win tonight in SA, but we have a solid core of players. The playoffs will be very important experience for PJ, Miles, Monk and Graham, and with Melo out we at least can thoroughly evaluate Monk and Graham and make a decision on them in the offseason.

Somebody convince me that we should just sell high on Rozier and tank...it's probably the smarter move long term but I just can't help but root for the team. I enjoy it too much lol.

Buzz...Buzz...
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#28 » by JackPhillie » Tue Mar 23, 2021 11:48 am

CuseMayne wrote:Day 1 of life with no Melo (Eric Collins said it, not me :lol: )

I mean.....

Hornets W
------------------
Hawks L (ends an 8 game winning streak, lost by 9 after blowing a 22 point lead late in the 3rd Q to the Clippers)
Celtics L
Pacers L
Bulls L
Raptors L
And sure I'll include Cavs L

We are squarely 6th in the East. Hawks and Heat are .5 ahead of us and tied for 4th. Knicks and Celtics are .5 behind us and tied for 7th. Then we've got the Pacers and the Bulls 2 games behind us and tied for 9th. Raptors 4.5 behind us in 11th (missing the play-in if playoffs started tomorrow), and the Cavs and Wizards 5.5 behind us and tied for 12th.
...
Without us becoming sellers at the trade deadline, and knowing that MJ is allergic to tanking, it's looking like we've got our eyes on the playoffs without our rookie savior. But will MJ and Kupchak decide to make a win now move? I guess we'll see by Thursday. We are pretty well positioned here, and are essentially the same team + Gordon Hayward as last year, narrowly missing the bubble. It's too far into the season to tank IMO, and I'll be rooting for us to continue grinding it out. We're gonna have to be scrappy and defensively minded like the win tonight in SA, but we have a solid core of players. The playoffs will be very important experience for PJ, Miles, Monk and Graham, and with Melo out we at least can thoroughly evaluate Monk and Graham and make a decision on them in the offseason.

Somebody convince me that we should just sell high on Rozier and tank...it's probably the smarter move long term but I just can't help but root for the team. I enjoy it too much lol.

Buzz...Buzz...


I don’t think tanking is a guarantee that we’ll get anything. I would love to see this team stay positive and keep their fighting spirit. I’m a fan of basketball and that’s pulling for my guys to win. We definitely have a glaring issue at C, but I think the FO would be better served solving that problem through trade or off season work rather than tanking and killing our guys chemistry. I’ve never been a fan of tanking as a strategy, though so make of that what you will.

I’m happy to get ousted in a first round effort if that’s what we get. It gives us that much more to fight for and be excited about next season when Lamelo comes back.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#29 » by Chapelchilla » Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:09 pm

I am not a fan of tanking either. Losing begets losing just look at our history. I think we can make the playoffs with this roster. I just hope we don't sell our future assets to chase the 8th seed (see our past).
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#30 » by JackPhillie » Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:01 pm

Chapelchilla wrote:I am not a fan of tanking either. Losing begets losing just look at our history. I think we can make the playoffs with this roster. I just hope we don't sell our future assets to chase the 8th seed (see our past).

Yeah I definitely am more conservative minded when it comes to our current roster. I really don’t want to tank but I also don’t think it’s wise to sell the farm in order to win an extra game in the playoffs/play-in. I think honestly the work that the team put in this season has messed up people’s expectations and losing Lamelo after defying our initial predictions has really crashed a lot of people’s blood sugar. I’m still happy with our season thus far, and I just can’t subscribe to the doom and gloom “let’s tank” or “let’s trade everything up to and including the teams washer and dryer”. I’m just here for the ride, baby. Trust the process. 8-)
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#31 » by Rich4114 » Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:45 pm

This team is not going to tank because its rookie PG is out for 6-8 weeks. Especially since we actually do not have an exact timeframe on his return. What if he's able to be back in time for the playoffs and then all of the sudden it's a spark that results in us upsetting a higher seed? We're sitting in 6th place with 8 weeks left having the best season since 2016. Sure, if we fell out of the race and into the upper lottery, we could luck into another top 4 pick. That'd be great if that happened but the chances of it happening are just so low. Try to get into the playoffs, don't make any one-season moves (which we shouldn't do anyway even if LaMelo wasn't hurt) and see where it lands us. This team making the playoffs and gaining that experience would be more valuable than most realize IMO.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#32 » by Hornet Mania » Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:48 pm

I know it probably won't last long but it's awesome to look at the standings this morning. It was understandably gloomy when Melo went down but hey, if we knew at the beginning of this year we'd be in 5th place at this point in March we would have all been ecstatic. :D

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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#33 » by Rich4114 » Wed Mar 24, 2021 7:16 pm

I’d enjoy a story where the Hornets stay afloat and then LaMelo returns in time for a late surge into the playoffs and first round upset of a higher seed.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#34 » by Snidely FC » Thu Mar 25, 2021 2:31 am

4th place in the East unbelievable
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#35 » by BlackOutBuzz » Thu Mar 25, 2021 3:36 pm

Orlando dealt Vuc to Chicago and Fournier to Boston; also likely to move Gordon.
Signs point to Toronto moving Lowry.
Cleveland, Washington, and Detroit are all at least 5 games behind us.

Even without LaMelo, the play-in looks like our most likely fate. I do wonder if they make some kind of minor move to hang in that 4-6 range.

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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#36 » by Rich4114 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:09 am

Miami lost and NYK won. Decent night for us again.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#37 » by Rich4114 » Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:52 am

That’s cool how Milwaukee rested all of their starters against the Knicks. Will we get a free win too when we play them?
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#38 » by Braggins » Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:57 am

Rich4114 wrote:That’s cool how Milwaukee rested all of their starters against the Knicks. Will we get a free win too when we play them?

Knicks jumped the Hornets in the standings because they got back to back games against Washington followed by barely beating the Bucks who were sitting Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday. Their last seven wins have been Washington x2, Detroit x2, Orlando, OKC, and Bucks resting their three best players. Their six wins before that were Indiana without LeVert/Brogdon/Warren, Sacramento, Minnesota, Atlanta, Houston, Washington. Literally one quality win (ATL) out of their last 13.

They've been super lucky this season with their schedule. I think they are the worst of the seven teams ranked 4-10 in the East when all are healthy.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#39 » by yosemiteben » Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:55 pm

http://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength

Indiana's remaining schedule is bottom 5 in difficulty. Chicago is 7th and NYK is 11th. Us, MIA, and ATL are all 18-20.
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Re: 2021 Hornets Playoff Watch 

Post#40 » by Hornet Mania » Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:06 pm

ESPN ran an article about playoff odds using their BPI (Basketball Power Index, basically fancy name for power ranking) to see who has the best shot at top 6 and then the next four play-in spots.

The Hornets rank 6th in BPI for the East over the remaining games, with a 55.3% chance of avoiding the play-in altogether. They have a 31% shot at being in the advantageous 7/8 play-in game, and then a 12% chance of falling to the 9/10 play-in game.

My back of the envelope math says that means BPI gives us a 98.3% chance at some sort of postseason activity and only a 1.7% chance of missing the playoffs or play-in altogether. I like those odds.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31156223/new-nba-playoff-projections-likely-winners-seeding-play-races

(For those wondering: The current 10th seed, Chicago, has a 20.3% chance of landing in the top 4 of the lotto. So not all hope is lost for you tankers out there either)

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