Officially Waived: The Kai Jones Thread

[Snidely FC]

Where can I see his new hair...?

here you go:
https://gleague.nba.com/games/20220326/LINGBO/

Watch on YouTube

[fatlever]

The highlights and stats look good....

But I just wish that his play on the court translated tp team performance better than the stats show.
This team has been a dumpster fire all season, especially the starters. But kai had one of the worst net ratings on the team. And the team has actually performed better with him off the court this season.

I had said earlier in the year his playing time will correlate with his ability to play defense. I see the blocks, but there are plenty of guys who block shots in her terrible Defenders. How does he look on the defensive end? And why is this team so bad? And why is the team better when he's off the floor? I don't watch the team so I don't know. Fill me in.

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[luciano-davidwesley]

Where can I see his new hair...?

here you go:
https://gleague.nba.com/games/20220326/LINGBO/

Watch on YouTube

He's looking much improved from earlier in the year. The arc on that made 3 looked nice.

I'd like to see him keep working on his Euro Step when he's going downhill on the drive. He got a few nice drives in this game but against NBA level defense I see him giving up charges on a few of them he did. The last drive in this game he did do it but it looks like it needs a fair bit more polish.

Very promising signs though.

[luciano-davidwesley]

The highlights and stats look good....

But I just wish that his play on the court translated tp team performance better than the stats show.
This team has been a dumpster fire all season, especially the starters. But kai had one of the worst net ratings on the team. And the team has actually performed better with him off the court this season.

I had said earlier in the year his playing time will correlate with his ability to play defense. I see the blocks, but there are plenty of guys who block shots in her terrible Defenders. How does he look on the defensive end? And why is this team so bad? And why is the team better when he's off the floor? I don't watch the team so I don't know. Fill me in.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

I agree but they are on a three game win streak so maybe they are turning the corner. Straight off the bat we know Arnoldus is a terrible defender so it's probably a lot more than just Kai's fault.

[BigSlam]

I mean, the Swarm are:
Fourth worst in the league for turnovers.
Bottom 10 in the league for assists.
Second worst in the league in rebounds (and dead last in offensive rebounding).
Bottom 10 in FTA's.
Bottom 5 in the league for pace.
Third worst in the league for 2nd chance points.
Bottom 5 for giving up points off their turnovers.
Bottom 5 for giving up 2nd chance points.

They are just not a very good team.

And even with all that, Kai is still averaging:
18 points per game
11 rebounds per game
1 assists per game
2 steals per game
2 blocks per game

and has absolutely taken over at times.

Hard to blame him for for just how bad guys like Chealey, Carton, McGriff, Brantley and Lewis (at times) have been.

Does anyone on the team have a positive net rating (stupid stat anyways)? And I assume Kai's would be bad because he is likely on the court more than the others.

[fatlever]

thats what im asking. yes, all the starters have bad net, but kai, jalen are bottom 2. i'd expect the best players, regardless of other teammates to eventually be near top of net in full season (at least compared to those w/ similar minutes)

i dont get your anger towards net rating. here its a 20 game sample size. its not meant to be the only stat, but its very telling stat at times. if you play all season, and the team is worse when you are on floor, compared to teammates, thats a bad look... almost all the time. nobody putting full blame of swarm sucking on kai, that would be ridiculous.

so im asking, is it possible that kai, despite stats, is not yet a guy who has figured out how to impact the bottom line?

[JDR720]

You can't make an argument that Kai hasn't improved. However, that doesn't mean that he's a good player yet. But all we can ask for is improvement, how he does next season will be huge for him. Will he get into the rotation or will he still be G-league level?

[fatlever]

thrilled he is progressing nicely. i'm happy to be very patient with him. year 3/4 was always my hope.

[BigSlam]

i dont get your anger towards net rating. here its a 20 game sample size. its not meant to be the only stat, but its very telling stat at times. if you play all season, and the team is worse when you are on floor, compared to teammates, thats a bad look... almost all the time.

Because it's a team sport and the efforts/impact of team mates effect a single players +/- and don't reflect how good or impactful an individual player is.

A Player could be doing all the right things on both ends of the court but if he has 2, 3 or 4 players around him who are giving up buckets and not getting buckets it plummets his +/-, even though he's doing all the right things.

Here's some context:
For the Lakers this year, LeBron has a +/- of -115.
For the Lakers this year, Monk has a +/- of +85.

What is this telling us?

+/- came from hockey. It's a bogus stat there as well IMO. Dude makes a shift change and the moment his blade hits the ice when he's over the boards if the other team scores he gets assigned a -, even though he wasn't in the play and had nothing to do with it.

[fatlever]

In my original email I mentioned comparing players with similar minutes. But I should have also mentioned comparing players that play in the same groups, such as starters vs bench players. For example Gelo is +4 net ratings on the year. I'm not sure that tells me a whole lot when comparing Kai vs the other starters. Clearly the starters as a unit are very bad together compared to opponents starters.

So in LeBrons example, it might be more telling to compare all of the Lakers starters to determine LeBron's impact. If he has the worst net rating of all of the starters that certainly is a telling stat, just as is if he had the best rating of all of the starters. Comparing him to monk however may not be that valuable since Monk is a bench player. I would be curious to see LeBron plus monk versus LeBron plus Westbrook. Or other groupings. When doing so, we may find the common denominator of one or two players who seem to be taking every lineup. And if that player is LeBron, which I would be shocked if it is, that doesn't necessarily mean that LeBron is a bad player it just might mean it the team is a bad fit around him, which it definitely is.

As I said, you can't just look at plus minus and see the entire picture. There are an entire Suite of Statistics built around on / off performance. If you examine enough of them you can usually find some patterns that begin to tell a story. I'm sure if we dug into the all Lakers on,off plus minus statistics we could probably start to find some that told the better story.

All this comes back to Greensboro. What I would really like to see from Jones, more than raw statistics, is how when he steps on the floor he makes everyone else around him better because of his commanding defensive presence or his Unstoppable offensive gravity. Because ultimately, that is what will get him consistent minutes with the Hornets. He's still a very young player, and centers often take time to develop the types of awareness skills that translate to improve team performance.

Players one through four play 1,000 minutes together during the season. 500 with Center A and 500 with Center B. When Center a is in the game does the rebounding percentage of the collective 5 go up or down? Does the defensive rating of the collect at 5 go up or down? These things are more important to me than did center A averaged more points and rebounds than Center B.

None of this is a knock on Jones. As I mentioned I'm not watching Greensboro play. I am simply asking questions in hopes that someone can make me feel better about his ability to transition to the Hornets rotation, while making a positive impact.

The stats look great, the highlights look great, physically he looks great. He has all the tools you want in a modern Center. But none of that means anything if he doesn't read the game and understand the game well enough to impact the team's performance. That last part is what I don't know.

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[MasterIchiro]

Well apparently we've moved the goalposts from a very hollow demeaning "Maybe someday Kai will learn how to play basketball" to a sophisticated dissertation on advanced stats. So we're making progress?

[MasterIchiro]

I think when I watch his highlights I remind myself he's a center. He does things centers don't do. His handles, first step, dribbling, 3 ball. Again, he measures up to Allen in standing reach and he's a superior athlete. He looks to be gaining weight and strength.

[BigSlam]

The stats look great, the highlights look great, physically he looks great. He has all the tools you want in a modern Center. But none of that means anything if he doesn't read the game and understand the game well enough to impact the team's performance. That last part is what I don't know.

Using the tried and tested feel-o-meter....I'd say he's 100% reading the game much, much better than he was. Still got a ways to go, but it's much improved.

I'd posted the following at the start of the month:

Biggest difference I see in Kai is that he is thinking the game through in the moment so much better.

Earlier in the the season it was like he predetermined what he was going to do well in advance of getting the ball and he would look to execute what he had predetermined regardless of what unfolded.

For example - he’d receive the ball at the top of the key and he was going to drive no matter what - and would often drive into trouble.

Now he receives the ball at the top of the key, goes to drive but if that is taken away by the D, he doesn’t commit to the drive and instead pulls himself up and kicks the ball out.

It shows fantastic maturation and development.

That's on offence - so I would say the game has 100% slowed down for him.

On defence he's still awesome at defending the P&R and excellent as a help side defender. He can also defend the rim one on one.

He's biggest area of improvement on that end, IMO, will be not just relying on his length and athletic ability to rebound. He needs to improve his positioning a little and also laying a body/boxing out.

The stuff he does as a 7 footer though is really, really impressive. His ability to dribble, drive, change direction and stretch out a Euro then dunk with authority is super promising, as are his hands and timing rolling off a pick.

[fatlever]

Who would you rather have long term?

Kai or Wiseman?
Kai or Okongwu?
Kai or Stewart?

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[CuseMayne]

Who would you rather have long term?

Kai or Wiseman?
Kai or Okongwu?
Kai or Stewart?

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Kaiiiiii boy. Go big or go home. Wiseman's got to prove that he can stay on the court/learn the NBA game, Okongwu is solid but won't ever be a top 15 center in the NBA IMO, and Stewart's decent but has a somewhat low ceiling. We need slightly better than mediocrity at the C position if we really want to be a perennial force out of the East.

[amcoolio]

Who would you rather have long term?

Kai or Wiseman?
Kai or Okongwu?
Kai or Stewart?

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Definitely Okongwu, Stewart is less talented and in theory should be easier to find than a Kai type (but we struggle so hard with that) so I'd take Kai over Stewart, and Kai over Wiseman...I am that low on Wiseman

[LofJ]

I am really, really rooting for Kai to succeed. A big man that can carry the defense is the missing piece this team needs to take the next step.

On that note since the all-star break the Hornets have the 6th best net rating in the league. They went from playing putrid defense to average defense and it made all the difference. Now imagine this team with a top 5 defense anchored by Kai Jones...

[BigSlam]

Who would you rather have long term?

Kai or Wiseman?
Kai or Okongwu?
Kai or Stewart?

I would have said Wiseman, but his knees seem like a real problem so Kai easily.

It's a push with Okongwu.

100% Kai over Stewart.

[Liver_Pooty]

Who would you rather have long term?

Kai or Wiseman?
Kai or Okongwu?
Kai or Stewart?

I would have said Wiseman, but his knees seem like a real problem so Kai easily.

It's a push with Okongwu.

100% Kai over Stewart.

Same.

[HornetJail]

Okongwu>Wiseman>Kai>>>>Stewart