2021 Draft Prospect: Franz Wagner

[JMAC3]

Adding another guy that should be in that 8-15 range in Wagner.

He did not measure at combine, but he is listed at 6-9 and can score late in the shot clock. Super young for a guy who just played 2 years of college basketball, he doesn't turn 20 until August (that is nuts).

Scouts apparently love his defensive tools. His stats aren't eye popping, but Michigan had a really balanced attack this year.

Not sure what type of role he plays in the league next year because he isn't great at 1 thing in my mind. Reminds me a little bit of Deni from last years draft.

Shooting wise he shot 34% from deep, but has been above 83% from the free throw line in both seasons. Does not get to the line a ton, which is a bit discouraging in my mind as a 6-9 wing that can put the ball on the floor. Does he lack aggressiveness? Only went for 20+ points 6 times in his career 55 games in college (career high is just 22).

I know he will get some comparisons to Hayward just because people are lazy when it comes to white guy comparisons, but his college numbers are not as impressive. Hayward was far more aggressive and it showed with his scoring average and mainly his ability to get to the line at an elite level.

Need to do more homework on this guy, but did not blow the doors off the barn for me first time through.

[driveandkick]

I like this player a lot if he happens to fall to 11. People talk about our hole at C, and there’s no doubt there is one there but we also really lack above average defenders. Wagner can defend and projects as a solid NBA shooter also.

[amcoolio]

Love him. Would be thrilled to get him at 11. Not worried about his shooting, he shoots well from the line. You are right about the Avidja comparison, but I like Wagner's size and defense/switching ability more. I think he has Bogdanovic potential.

[LofJ]

Another player that probably won't last till 11, but I'd love to have him. I think he's a better scorer than what he showed at Michigan.

[bravor]

I already said it, i thik he could benefit from Hayward as a mentor even if their profile is different. But as mentioned by JMAC, he does not get to the line very often
But he is quite young and could develop nicely into a nice two way forward.

[Snidely FC]

Givony has Hornets selecting Franz Wagner in ESPN+ post-combine draft

Continuing to surround LaMelo Ball with versatile, instinctual players will likely be a priority for the next several years. Wagner is one of the best off-ball defenders in the draft and also brings promising passing and shooting indicators that suggest a very high floor. He's the type of two-way, role-playing combo forward every team desires.

[wilson115]

Dean loves him:

Franz lacks the explosive athleticism of Green as well as the volume scoring, as he posted a pedestrian 19.2 usage rate as a sophomore for Michigan.

But otherwise he is absolutely dripping with goodness. This lottery is loaded with good passers, but Franz has the best assist:TOV of the entire crop:

He is better than Giddey who is a historically good passing prospect.

His lack of mistakes is also apparent in his defensive play. He moves his feet about as well as any 19 year old prospect ever, which is especially valuable given his excellent dimensions at 6’9″ with 7’0″ wingspan.

This doesn’t necessarily mean he will be a generational NBA defensive player, as his lack of strength and athleticism led to pedestrian rebounding. But he is going to be good on this end and possibly excellent.

He only made 32.5% from 3 in NCAA, but he shot a decent rate of 3PA and made 83.5% FT. He should develop NBA 3 point range in due time.

Once you have one undersized isolation scorer, there is no value in having another. Whereas you cannot have enough Otto Porters. You can comfortably play a lineup with 3 Otto Porters or maybe even 4 in certain occasions, as long as there is one star playmaker to facilitate the offense.

The 73 win Golden State Warriors were great because they had one elite creator in Stephen Curry and 3 excellent role players in Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala who provided significant value without needing the ball.

If you really want to break the NBA, you need to load up on elite well rounded role players. Isolation scorers provide diminishing returns and cap team level upside with too many of them.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/07/03/jalen-green-vs-franz-wagner-how-much-should-creation-be-valued/

[JMAC3]

Dean loves him:

Once you have one undersized isolation scorer, there is no value in having another. Whereas you cannot have enough Otto Porters. You can comfortably play a lineup with 3 Otto Porters or maybe even 4 in certain occasions, as long as there is one star playmaker to facilitate the offense.

The 73 win Golden State Warriors were great because they had one elite creator in Stephen Curry and 3 excellent role players in Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala who provided significant value without needing the ball.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/07/03/jalen-green-vs-franz-wagner-how-much-should-creation-be-valued/

I get what Dean is trying to say to some degree, but also think he chose a horrible example to get his point home. Draymond and Iggy are both really good passers and that was supremely valuable for that Warriors team.. add in Livingston too.

I think teams with only 1 elite playmaker/creator are easy to guard and that is why Luka has not seen a ton of success so far. Hawks really could of beat Milwaukee if they had another guy to help Trae create.

Look at who is in the finals though, Milwaukee who has three really good creators in Giannis, Middleton and Jrue vs Phoenix who has two elite creators in Booker and CP3.

Also, his note about assist to turnover ratio making Franz a better passer than Giddey almost made me throw up haha

[Benjamin Linus]

This is a pretty bad take by Dean. Role players are important but you really need multiple playmakers and shot creators. Most teams don't have a number one option like Steph plus Klay is not a role player. Yeah, he doesn't need the ball in his hands but dude’s a five time All-Star that was averaging like 22 ppg on crazy efficiency. I mean, sure if your two best players combine for 52 ppg like GSW then you can start three Otto Porters maybe

But for real any team that starts four Otto Porters around their star player would be a low level playoff team at best

[wilson115]

I get what Dean is trying to say to some degree, but also think he chose a horrible example to get his point home. Draymond and Iggy are both really good passers and that was supremely valuable for that Warriors team.. add in Livingston too.

I think teams with only 1 elite playmaker/creator are easy to guard and that is why Luka has not seen a ton of success so far. Hawks really could of beat Milwaukee if they had another guy to help Trae create.

Look at who is in the finals though, Milwaukee who has three really good creators in Giannis, Middleton and Jrue vs Phoenix who has two elite creators in Booker and CP3.

Also, his note about assist to turnover ratio making Franz a better passer than Giddey almost made me throw up haha

He doesn't actually say Franz is a better passer than Giddey, he's just saying Franz has a better assist-to-turnover-ratio. He does say Franz has a lower volume of creation than most of his comps in that table, which is where Giddey walks all over him (36.3% AST% vs. 17.3%) but the comp is much better against Cade (20.4%).

The Warriors, he isn't calling Green and Iguodala non-passers either. Rather, they fit the mold of what he calls "well rounded role players" which explicitly includes passing. So he's not saying passing per se is overvalued but rather one-dimensional shot creators especially if they're undersized.

Shot creation is a vital part of basketball, as any NBA offense needs at least one guy who can be relied on to create offense for the team off the dribble.

But at the same time, it is prone to being overrated by casual fans who can discern scoring more easily than nuanced abilities such as passing, defense, and efficiency.

Creation is a significant part of upside, but it is not everything. When it comes in an undersized and one dimensional player it does not necessarily create more upside than a perfectly well rounded role player.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/07/03/jalen-green-vs-franz-wagner-how-much-should-creation-be-valued/

All of those names on the Bucks arguably fit the mold of well-rounded (though certainly elite) role player. Chris Paul was out for much of the playoffs and his fellow starters Crowder, Bridges, and even Ayton certainly fit the well-rounded role player mold.

[JMAC3]

Strong defense @Wilson115 is this guy your brother? haha

[luciano-davidwesley]

He has such a slow first step on offense and I think that his defensive potential is being exagerrated, although he does have good anticipation with his hands defensively. Inconsistent jumper with a slowish and flat release and very right-handed.

He looks like he's barely a jack of all trades to me. This would be an underwhelming draft pick with very little potential to improve given his athletic limitations and lack of assertiveness. We can definitely find a better player than Wagner.

[JDR720]

Seems like another Dario Saric.

[wilson115]

Strong defense @Wilson115 is this guy your brother? haha

Come on, bro.

[KingCat]

Current Nic Batum is what I imagine him being in the NBA. Really good player for a contender. We are far from a contender though. I really don't see why he is a lottery prospect, especially after he got exposed by UCLA in the tournament.

The main problem with Charlotte basketball is we always look for a guy that project to be "really solid" "contributor to a winning team", before we actually build a winning team. Not a good idea to build a team with a bunch of role players and no actual stars.

[JMAC3]

Sounds like Wagner is all but guaranteed to be gone by the time we pick which I am fine with as literally every team between 7-10 are rumored to be high on him especially the Kings and Memphis.

[luciano-davidwesley]

That would be perfect if he is already off the board when we pick. That means someone better will drop to us.