Little Swaggy: The Kelly Oubre Jr Thread

HornetJail · Post #161 » by **HornetJail** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:32 pm

I wouldn't call Oubre awful on defense, but he's nowhere near good. It's somewhere in the middle between the two of you. But he really does not serve a purpose when he's not scoring.

Oubre is really hit and miss any given half. You pretty much know what you're going to get within his first 2-3 shots. I wouldn't be opposed to just playing him 5 minutes in the first, letting him get 3-4 shots up and if he's off the mark, you sit him till the second half and try again. If he's on, you ride him all night.

SWedd523 · Post #162 » by **SWedd523** » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:49 pm

Kelly is a pretty bad defender from what I've seen. he flashes good play every once in awhile, and he's certainly long and athletic enough to be a good defender so it's probably more effort than anything with him.

But he definitely suffers from "let's hurry up and run back down the floor-itis" like most of the rest of the guys

Snidely FC · Post #163 » by **Snidely FC** » Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:57 pm

Amazing, as pointed out by Hornets production team: After being drafted back to back in the 2015 draft Kelly Oubre (#15) and Terry Rozier(#16) are separated by a mere 12 career points:

Total Pts:
Kelly Oubre 5314
Terry Rozier 5302

Snidely FC · Post #164 » by **Snidely FC** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:38 pm

Oubre cuts a controversial figure on this board. I'm a fan of his cartoonish character, but others rail against his lack of defensive discipline. It's easy to justify the disparate opinions. On one hand (based on Hollinger Game Score https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Hollinger) he is the most inconsistent player in the league.

Kelly Oubre Jr. has been far and away the league's most hot-and-cold performer this season. He is one of just 18 players leaguewide with multiple game scores of 30 or better, but he also has three outings with negative game scores.

and on the other, he is second favorite (behind Tyler Herro) to win the Sixth Man of the Year

Kelly Oubre Jr. (+1600), who now has the second-best odds, also finds himself in protocols. In the seven games prior to his absence, Oubre averaged 18 PPG and 24.3 MPG. One thing to keep in mind, though, is that Oubre might see a reduction in usage and minutes now that the Charlotte Hornets have returned to full strength.

One things for sure, never a dull moment with Oubre on the floor

Post #165 » by **yosemiteben** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:20 pm

I think there's lots of ammo for arguments both for and against his value, but there's no doubt that he can carry the team offensively when he's hitting shots.

My long term view on him is we won't have his full bird rights when he hits free agency so the only way he stays long term if he is a perpetual 6MOY type is if he stays on a discount. After next season he'll be a FA at 28, and that may be the last chance he has to get a big bag.

His contract reality probably dictates that he won't be here long term. That's a big driver in me wanting to capitalize on his perceived market value right now.

HornetJail · Post #166 » by **HornetJail** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:06 pm

yosemiteben wrote:I think there's lots of ammo for arguments both for and against his value, but there's no doubt that he can carry the team offensively when he's hitting shots.

My long term view on him is we won't have his full bird rights when he hits free agency so the only way he stays long term if he is a perpetual 6MOY type is if he stays on a discount. After next season he'll be a FA at 28, and that may be the last chance he has to get a big bag.

His contract reality probably dictates that he won't be here long term. That's a big driver in me wanting to capitalize on his perceived market value right now.

there's no way the difference between Early Bird and Full Bird Rights changes anything for us. At the end of his 2nd year, we'll be able to offer him 175% of his 2022-23 salary. Love Kelly so far, but do you really see him pricing himself out Early Bird money? That's a contract starting at $21M.

Post #167 » by **yosemiteben** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:06 pm

KEMBAtheMETEOR wrote:
yosemiteben wrote:I think there's lots of ammo for arguments both for and against his value, but there's no doubt that he can carry the team offensively when he's hitting shots.

My long term view on him is we won't have his full bird rights when he hits free agency so the only way he stays long term if he is a perpetual 6MOY type is if he stays on a discount. After next season he'll be a FA at 28, and that may be the last chance he has to get a big bag.

His contract reality probably dictates that he won't be here long term. That's a big driver in me wanting to capitalize on his perceived market value right now.

there's no way the difference between Early Bird and Full Bird Rights changes anything for us. At the end of his 2nd year, we'll be able to offer him 175% of his 2022-23 salary. Love Kelly so far, but do you really see him pricing himself out Early Bird money? That's a contract starting at $21M.

If he's 6MOY caliber for two years and he's facing his last chance to get a big bag, I would expect him to take all the money he could get. He had a **** year in a great GS system (meaning it looked like it was a him problem, not a team problem) and still got $12M from us. What does he got when he balls out for two years and is in his prime?

HornetJail · Post #168 » by **HornetJail** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:16 pm

what 6th man gets $21M/year?

Post #169 » by **JDR720** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:51 pm

Rozier gets 21m per year starting next season. Hardaway makes 21m per year.

It's possible that a team views him as a starter too. He'd probably start for us if we didn't have 4 other 15-20ppg scorers.

MasterIchiro · Post #170 » by **MasterIchiro** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:48 pm

I am for capitalizing on his perceived value, but feel extremely hesitant to move him during this playoff push. Team chemistry and continuity is a huge factor down the stretch. I think before his tenure here is up, Bouknight can replace a good chunk of his offense from the bench. But that time won't arrive until next trade deadline. And we would need to use Oubre to acquire a center who can add offense.

HornetJail · Post #171 » by **HornetJail** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:57 pm

JDR720 wrote:Rozier gets 21m per year starting next season. Hardaway makes 21m per year.

It's possible that a team views him as a starter too. He'd probably start for us if we didn't have 4 other 15-20ppg scorers.

if Oubre is a significant asset in a package that brings us a center, then yeah i guess send him away, but color me skeptical that he gets $21M. Oubre isn't Rozier, and Hardaway/Hield/Fournier at their price points are bad money. I'd expect him to be around $15M if he stays where he is.

Post #172 » by **fatlever** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:11 am

Move him in Summer. I want no part long term. I can't handle the zero defense, inconsistent offense.

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Post #173 » by **BigSlam** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:22 am

His season splits by month:

16.3ppg (44/40/65) - 7 games
14.3ppg (44/35/73) - 16 games
19.2ppg (47/37/62) - 13 games
18.0ppg (52/43/86) - 5 games

Is he inconsistent, or do we just choose to believe he is inconsistent?

Post #174 » by **JDR720** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:40 am

He is inconsistent because one day he'll have a game like he had today vs OKC, then he'll score 30 points and go 10-15 the next game.

Average those 2 together and you get his season averages.

You can usually guess how good he'll be based on his first few shots. If he makes them, he'll be good Oubre. If he misses them, he'll be bad Oubre.

HornetJail · Post #175 » by **HornetJail** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:42 am

He's like any other streaky shooter. I've said it before, but I'd let him simply chuck a few up there early in each half, test the waters, and play him way less if he's going to have a brick show (let Martin play more, or get Bouk some burn), and play him like 40 minutes if he's going to be hot. It's pretty much ON or OFF with him, and about 90% of the time, you can tell what kind of half he's going to have by his first 2-3 shots.

Post #176 » by **fatlever** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:10 am

i cant find it right now, but earlier today someone tweeted out a stat that showed oubre as the most inconsistent player in the league (game to game)

Snidely FC · Post #177 » by **Snidely FC** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 12:32 pm

Cruel irony that he was brought in to fill in at SF in case Hayward got injured but now that Hayward's out he has cratered shooting 16% from 3 last 10 games

Post #178 » by **fatlever** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 4:27 pm

I hate to keep piling on Kelly, because he only represents one of our many problems. However, his style and play is the epitome of what still needs to be corrected with this group of players.

1. The defensive end only exists as a place where he goes to hang out in between opportunities to shoot threes.

If you want to be infuriated, the next time we have a game Don't Take Your Eyes Off him on the defensive end. I did that last night during the Minnesota game and it's infuriating. If we are in zone he just floats around aimlessly. If the ball is not directly in front of him he isn't paying attention to anything else. When we are in man, if this guy has the ball it's flat feet standing up straight players Blow by him constantly and his only reaction is to reach for a steal at the last second. He is incapable of staying in front of his his man. If his guy does not have the ball then it's the same as when we are in zone he just aimlessly wanders around not paying attention to anything around him. He gets beat on backdoor, gets lost on box outs, fails to react to weak side help defense or anything else that would be beneficial to our overall team defense.

Shooting 17% from three pointers is bad enough but it's his play on the defensive end that would nail him to the bench if i were coach.

2. Like many players on the team, his skill set is 3-pointers and dunks. I realized that is the overall goal of our offense oh, but when teams take away those two things we have very few players that are still able to generate good looks, especially against a long atletic defense. This is where we desperately miss Gordon. Not only is he great at creating offense for others, but he's one of the few that is able to post up, and make mid-range shots the others being Terry and lamelo when he is hitting his floaters.

Against a good defense, if Kelly is not making threes he basically provides nothing else that would help us win games. Outside of his random 10-15 outburst, he has been in a massive slump for pretty much the past 6 weeks. Is it really worth giving him minutes for the help that he randomly gets hot? As many have mentioned maybe you give him five minutes in the first half to see if he's making shots otherwise there's really no point in playing him. Teams do not fear his outside shot so he's not creating gravity just by being on the floor. And as mentioned in point number one, he's a huge net negative on the defensive end.

He had a very attractive salary slot for this year and next year given the guaranteed status at his contract for next year. It was a very tradable contract. He's had enough random outbursts and highlights that he still has perceived value around the league.... I think ( then again maybe we were the only ones that were fooled this summer when no one else wanted to sign him in).

I just wish we would have cashed out on him two weeks ago and try to turn him into another, future asset, big man or a defensive player or point guard something that might have been a little more useful down the stretch.

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Post #179 » by **BigSlam** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:18 pm

He's not a starting caliber player who's been forced to start with Gordo and Thing #1 out (although Thing #1 hadn't been great lately either).

Oubre is everything that is wrong with our team - we can not play in the half court.

It's play at breakneck speed and jack 3's or nothing at all.

Gordo is the only dude who seems to understand how to execute in the half court.

LaMelo included.

Post #180 » by **luciano-davidwesley** » Wed Feb 16, 2022 10:03 pm

fatlever wrote:I hate to keep piling on Kelly, because he only represents one of our many problems. However, his style and play is the epitome of what still needs to be corrected with this group of players.

1. The defensive end only exists as a place where he goes to hang out in between opportunities to shoot threes.

If you want to be infuriated, the next time we have a game Don't Take Your Eyes Off him on the defensive end. I did that last night during the Minnesota game and it's infuriating. If we are in zone he just floats around aimlessly. If the ball is not directly in front of him he isn't paying attention to anything else. When we are in man, if this guy has the ball it's flat feet standing up straight players Blow by him constantly and his only reaction is to reach for a steal at the last second. He is incapable of staying in front of his his man. If his guy does not have the ball then it's the same as when we are in zone he just aimlessly wanders around not paying attention to anything around him. He gets beat on backdoor, gets lost on box outs, fails to react to weak side help defense or anything else that would be beneficial to our overall team defense.

Shooting 17% from three pointers is bad enough but it's his play on the defensive end that would nail him to the bench if i were coach.

2. Like many players on the team, his skill set is 3-pointers and dunks. I realized that is the overall goal of our offense oh, but when teams take away those two things we have very few players that are still able to generate good looks, especially against a long atletic defense. This is where we desperately miss Gordon. Not only is he great at creating offense for others, but he's one of the few that is able to post up, and make mid-range shots the others being Terry and lamelo when he is hitting his floaters.

Against a good defense, if Kelly is not making threes he basically provides nothing else that would help us win games. Outside of his random 10-15 outburst, he has been in a massive slump for pretty much the past 6 weeks. Is it really worth giving him minutes for the help that he randomly gets hot? As many have mentioned maybe you give him five minutes in the first half to see if he's making shots otherwise there's really no point in playing him. Teams do not fear his outside shot so he's not creating gravity just by being on the floor. And as mentioned in point number one, he's a huge net negative on the defensive end.

He had a very attractive salary slot for this year and next year given the guaranteed status at his contract for next year. It was a very tradable contract. He's had enough random outbursts and highlights that he still has perceived value around the league.... I think ( then again maybe we were the only ones that were fooled this summer when no one else wanted to sign him in).

I just wish we would have cashed out on him two weeks ago and try to turn him into another, future asset, big man or a defensive player or point guard something that might have been a little more useful down the stretch.

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I 100% agree. His style of play is just the opposite of winning basketball. Unless he's (occasionally) hitting 3's at 70% of course.