Hornets Cap Situation Upcoming Offseason

[JMAC3]

Just to give everyone an update on our cap situation this offseason

Guaranteed Contracts:
9 (Gordon, Rozier, LaMelo, PJ, Kelly, Carey, Bouk, Kai, Thor)
Equaling $89,211,210

Dead Money
Batum at $8,856,969 that puts us at $98,068,179

No Brainer Contract Pick Ups
McDaniels contract (Team Option) of $1,930,681 puts us at $99,998,860 and put roster at 10 players.

Cap Holds
Miles Bridges is Restricted, so we can bring him back for any number. His Cap hold is $16,264,479. We can sign him last and only his hold will count against potential cap space.
Same with Cody Martin, who has a tiny cap hold of $2,228,276

Unguaranteed Contracts
Ish Smith has unguaranteed contract of $4,725,000
Nick Richards has unguaranteed contract of $1,782,621
Plumlee has partially guaranteed contract of $9,080,417 with only $4,262,500 actually guaranteed. So we can waive him and have only his guaranteed amount in dead money.

Recap
Estimated Salary Cap in NBA: 119,000,000
Hornets Salary Cap with Guaranteed Contracts (10): $99,998,860
Hornets Salary Cap with Cap Holds included (12): $118,491,615

Hornets Cap with Plumlee Dead Money (12): $122,754,115
Hornets Cap with Plumlee on deal guaranteed (13): $127,572,032
Hornets Cap with Plumlee+Ish(14): $132,297,032
Hornets Cap with Plumlee+Ish+Richards (15): $134,079,653

Luxury Cap: 145,000,000

Projected Exceptions: (each team can use one)
Standard MLE $10,095,000 (for teams over cap)
Taxpayer MLE $6,149,000 (for teams in lux tax)
Room MLE $5,198,000 (for teams with cap space)

Analysis

Assuming Hornets bring back 10 players listed above + Cap Holds of Bridges and Martin. They have zero "true cap space" to sign outside free agents. They will likely be limited to the Standard MLE of 10 Million to sign an outside free agent.

Also, likely Richards and Ish are not brought back on unguaranteed contracts. Leaving more room for us to use MLE and sign draft picks to stay under Tax and also open roster spots.

Decision on Plumlee is tough because you can save nearly 5 million by waiving him, but that does not open up cap space. Just more room to operate under Luxury Tax depending on how expensive Miles and Cody cost. In that scenario you still have dead cap for Plumlee of 4.25 Million so it might make sense to just keep him for the difference.

[JMAC3]

Some additional thoughts.

Trading Plumlee now makes a ton of sense. His contract is a good size to include in deals, avoid a weird decision next year, he is expendable on the floor and most likely we are trading for a center so positionally he becomes less valuable after a deal.

Ish Smith is also a good person to toss in a deal because his contract is unguaranteed and likely won't be back next year unless he restructures to a smaller sized number.

Ideally since Hornets won't have cap space next summer the Hornets should do 1 of 2 things. First, acquire a guy that is already under contract for next season or secondly acquire a guy who we would retain his bird rights so we can go over the cap to resign him.

Examples:
Turner or Wood are under contract next year and trading for them now would allow us to still resign Miles and Cody.
Or
Trading for a guy like Nurkic, Bamba or Robinson now would give us their bird rights and allow us to go over cap to resign them and also retain Cody and Miles.

If we do not trade for Nurkic, Bamba or Robinson type now, we won't have cap space to sign them next year and would be forced to sign with the MLE, which is limited to 10 million per season at a max of three years. Most teams would be able to offer that deal so we would not have much leverage in that situation. Whereas if we trade for them now, we can sign them for more than 10 million using Bird Rights and our offer will be better than rest of league most likley.

[yosemiteben]

Makes no sense to waive a guy when it doesn't free cap space, so if we don't trade Plumlee he'll definitely be around next year. Didn't see anything in there about Oubre but he's in a similar situation - his contract isn't fully guaranteed next year.

[MasterIchiro]

Some additional thoughts.

Trading Plumlee now makes a ton of sense. His contract is a good size to include in deals, avoid a weird decision next year, he is expendable on the floor and most likely we are trading for a center so positionally he becomes less valuable after a deal.

Ish Smith is also a good person to toss in a deal because his contract is unguaranteed and likely won't be back next year unless he restructures to a smaller sized number.

Ideally since Hornets won't have cap space next summer the Hornets should do 1 of 2 things. First, acquire a guy that is already under contract for next season or secondly acquire a guy who we would retain his bird rights so we can go over the cap to resign him.

Examples:
Turner or Wood are under contract next year and trading for them now would allow us to still resign Miles and Cody.
Or
Trading for a guy like Nurkic, Bamba or Robinson now would give us their bird rights and allow us to go over cap to resign them and also retain Cody and Miles.

If we do not trade for Nurkic, Bamba or Robinson type now, we won't have cap space to sign them next year and would be forced to sign with the MLE, which is limited to 10 million per season at a max of three years. Most teams would be able to offer that deal so we would not have much leverage in that situation. Whereas if we trade for them now, we can sign them for more than 10 million using Bird Rights and our offer will be better than rest of league most likley.

This is great accounting and use of real life examples to illustrate our position heading into the off-season. Thank you for taking the time to flesh out your analysis. I wrestle with the situation often and arrived at an identical conclusion where it makes more sense to send out Plumlee and Ish now. If we can acquire a starting center who earns less than Plumlee and a third string point guard who earns less than Ish, we are in business to use the standard MLE after renewing Miles and Martin. If Kupchak can steal Oubre for 12 I'm extremely confident he can land a solid player with that MLE. Few teams have cap space. And most teams with the MLE don't need a center. At any rate, and this would segue into the trade thread, I identified Zubac as the target for starting center contracted through next year at lower dollars than Plumlee. And I like Ntilikina as third PG contracted through next year at lower dollars than Ish. I also like Plumlee's playmaking with Doncic as a backup center for them. And we're hearing Clippers are sellers and they have Hartenstein's Bird Rights allowing them to avert a pay raise to Zubac after next year. Plus Kupchak drafted the guy. None of this works unless Pelicans hold a play-in seeding at the deadline. Looks like a strong possibility. Otherwise we pluck Hartenstein with the MLE.

[Diop]

Great write up jmac, shows how tough being a gm is.

Changes my stance on “we’re staying pat” that I’ve been parroting, really does make sense to make trades just for future cap room.

I do think Charlotte will end up paying luxury tax, mj has said he will before.

[JMAC3]

Makes no sense to waive a guy when it doesn't free cap space, so if we don't trade Plumlee he'll definitely be around next year. Didn't see anything in there about Oubre but he's in a similar situation - his contract isn't fully guaranteed next year.

You are correct on Oubre, but I figured with how he has played he will be picked up unless he gets injured or a clash with the front office.

I am not 100% what the move should be, but the more I think about it the more I think the worst move is nothing.

Even if we lose out on a little value now it might be the best thing for the long-term roster build to shore up center.

[MasterIchiro]

Great write up jmac, shows how tough being a gm is.

Changes my stance on “we’re staying pat” that I’ve been parroting, really does make sense to make trades just for future cap room.

I do think Charlotte will end up paying luxury tax, mj has said he will before.

Agreed he will pay the tax, but next year isn't the right time for it. To me it feels like the chips are:

PJ
Pelicans pick
Jalen
Plumlee (filler)
Ish (filler)

[yosemiteben]

Makes no sense to waive a guy when it doesn't free cap space, so if we don't trade Plumlee he'll definitely be around next year. Didn't see anything in there about Oubre but he's in a similar situation - his contract isn't fully guaranteed next year.

You are correct on Oubre, but I figured with how he has played he will be picked up unless he gets injured or a clash with the front office.

I am not 100% what the move should be, but the more I think about it the more I think the worst move is nothing.

Even if we lose out on a little value now it might be the best thing for the long-term roster build to shore up center.

I get that we won't have cap space, but we could just move Plumlee next deadline for someone who wants an expiring. There's no specific reason we need to move him this deadline when it comes to cap math.

[JMAC3]

Makes no sense to waive a guy when it doesn't free cap space, so if we don't trade Plumlee he'll definitely be around next year. Didn't see anything in there about Oubre but he's in a similar situation - his contract isn't fully guaranteed next year.

You are correct on Oubre, but I figured with how he has played he will be picked up unless he gets injured or a clash with the front office.

I am not 100% what the move should be, but the more I think about it the more I think the worst move is nothing.

Even if we lose out on a little value now it might be the best thing for the long-term roster build to shore up center.

I get that we won't have cap space, but we could just move Plumlee next deadline for someone who wants an expiring. There's no specific reason we need to move him this deadline when it comes to cap math.

If we don't move Plumlee now, he will be on our roster next season at 9 Million and even if we use the Full MLE on a center, it is unlikely that center will be the answer. So more than likely we enter next season with two mediocre centers and a bunch of young guys. Why not make the move now for a guy that can help us in the playoffs this year and also make things less cloudy in FA.

[MasterIchiro]

Makes no sense to waive a guy when it doesn't free cap space, so if we don't trade Plumlee he'll definitely be around next year. Didn't see anything in there about Oubre but he's in a similar situation - his contract isn't fully guaranteed next year.

You are correct on Oubre, but I figured with how he has played he will be picked up unless he gets injured or a clash with the front office.

I am not 100% what the move should be, but the more I think about it the more I think the worst move is nothing.

Even if we lose out on a little value now it might be the best thing for the long-term roster build to shore up center.

I get that we won't have cap space, but we could just move Plumlee next deadline for someone who wants an expiring. There's no specific reason we need to move him this deadline when it comes to cap math.

I think his cap math is saying if we stand pat and do nothing then we either use the MLE and lose Martin, keep Martin and lose the MLE or go into the luxury tax. Martin's raise, Miles' raise and the partial guarantee to Plumlee make it all very tight. And the MLE likely represents a better player than Plumlee or Martin. So I see Plumlee as a baseline salary for a better center.

[yosemiteben]

If we don't move Plumlee now, he will be on our roster next season at 9 Million and even if we use the Full MLE on a center, it is unlikely that center will be the answer. So more than likely we enter next season with two mediocre centers and a bunch of young guys. Why not make the move now for a guy that can help us in the playoffs this year and also make things less cloudy in FA.

Sure, but that's not really a cap math issue. We'll be in exactly the same spot next year in terms of upcoming cap flexibility (i.e., none), it's not like we'll miss an opportunity by not trading him.

[yosemiteben]

I think his cap math is saying if we stand pat and do nothing then we either use the MLE and lose Martin, keep Martin and lose the MLE or go into the luxury tax. Martin's raise, Miles' raise and the partial guarantee to Plumlee make it all very tight. And the MLE likely represents a better player than Plumlee or Martin. So I see Plumlee as a baseline salary for a better center.

Sure, but again this doesn't have anything to do with our specific situation this season or why it'd be different or give us more options to trade him now compared to next season.

[MasterIchiro]

If we don't move Plumlee now, he will be on our roster next season at 9 Million and even if we use the Full MLE on a center, it is unlikely that center will be the answer. So more than likely we enter next season with two mediocre centers and a bunch of young guys. Why not make the move now for a guy that can help us in the playoffs this year and also make things less cloudy in FA.

Sure, but that's not really a cap math issue. We'll be in exactly the same spot next year in terms of upcoming cap flexibility (i.e., none), it's not like we'll miss an opportunity by not trading him.

I don't know if the front office can accept moving laterally while the competition improves. Teams like the Cavs have been rewarded for being aggressive. If we're on the cusp of reaching the playoffs, I know I wouldn't feel satisfied punting.

[JMAC3]

If we don't move Plumlee now, he will be on our roster next season at 9 Million and even if we use the Full MLE on a center, it is unlikely that center will be the answer. So more than likely we enter next season with two mediocre centers and a bunch of young guys. Why not make the move now for a guy that can help us in the playoffs this year and also make things less cloudy in FA.

Sure, but that's not really a cap math issue. We'll be in exactly the same spot next year in terms of upcoming cap flexibility (i.e., none), it's not like we'll miss an opportunity by not trading him.

I agree with you on that, but if we do nothing with Plumlee then we basically are forcing our hand to try and use MLE on another center in offseason, most likely another plumlee esq guy.

If we make the move now for a center using Plumlee contract, we can use the MLE on a different type of player in the offseason to balance roster.

[MasterIchiro]

If we don't move Plumlee now, he will be on our roster next season at 9 Million and even if we use the Full MLE on a center, it is unlikely that center will be the answer. So more than likely we enter next season with two mediocre centers and a bunch of young guys. Why not make the move now for a guy that can help us in the playoffs this year and also make things less cloudy in FA.

Sure, but that's not really a cap math issue. We'll be in exactly the same spot next year in terms of upcoming cap flexibility (i.e., none), it's not like we'll miss an opportunity by not trading him.

I agree with you on that, but if we do nothing with Plumlee then we basically are forcing our hand to try and use MLE on another center in offseason, most likely another plumlee esq guy.

If we make the move now for a center using Plumlee contract, we can use the MLE on a different type of player in the offseason to balance roster.

And if we do that (use the MLE on a Plumlee esq guy) we also lose Martin if we want to duck the tax.

[JMAC3]

Sure, but that's not really a cap math issue. We'll be in exactly the same spot next year in terms of upcoming cap flexibility (i.e., none), it's not like we'll miss an opportunity by not trading him.

I agree with you on that, but if we do nothing with Plumlee then we basically are forcing our hand to try and use MLE on another center in offseason, most likely another plumlee esq guy.

If we make the move now for a center using Plumlee contract, we can use the MLE on a different type of player in the offseason to balance roster.

And if we do that (use the MLE on a Plumlee esq guy) we also lose Martin if we want to duck the tax.

I feel like I have no idea how much a guy like Martin is worth in free agency.

[MasterIchiro]

I agree with you on that, but if we do nothing with Plumlee then we basically are forcing our hand to try and use MLE on another center in offseason, most likely another plumlee esq guy.

If we make the move now for a center using Plumlee contract, we can use the MLE on a different type of player in the offseason to balance roster.

And if we do that (use the MLE on a Plumlee esq guy) we also lose Martin if we want to duck the tax.

I feel like I have no idea how much a guy like Martin is worth in free agency.

Agreed but we should not be in a position to lose him instead of keeping him plus adding an MLE who balances the roster at a different position than center. All because Plumlee? It makes no sense. Move Plumlee now with the Pels pick for an upgrade who makes a low salary or move Oubre with PJ for a bigger upgrade at center. And I think it's clear Martin would be a casualty before Bouknight or Kai Jones if we stand pat with Plumlee. I do know this, an MLE player is a better player than Martin.

[JDR720]

We need to look into trading Rozier. He's solid and all, but I think Martin is more valuable as a swiss armyknife bench player who we need to keep and Rozier is easier to replace with Bouknight/Oubre/Miles/Gordon and maybe even Cody is he takes another leap.

[MasterIchiro]

We need to look into trading Rozier. He's solid and all, but I think Martin is more valuable as a swiss armyknife bench player who we need to keep and Rozier is easier to replace with Bouknight/Oubre/Miles/Gordon and maybe even Cody is he takes another leap.

I'm for it because i don't think the backcourt defense with LaMelo + Rozier is sustainable for any serious playoff team. But I think moving him now would rattle a team still forming an identity. I think we will more seriously consider moving Rozier after the Hayward window. So we're taking 2 years after this season.

[SWedd523]

Agreed that a Melo/Martin backcourt is more sustainable long term as a serious team. Problem is that scoring needs to come from somewhere and Hayward a. isn't the type of guy to go out and aggressively get buckets and b. isn't getting younger.

Then you look at Miles. Yeah he's putting up more points, and being way more aggressive, but his efficiency has somewhat tanked (especially from 3), and even now he's hovering around 20ppg, which isn't really #1 scorer territory. He's also not performed very well defensively so I go back to the "is he worth the max?" question. He's turned himself into a potentially great #2, but maxing him out is going to potentially hamstring them long term.

Interesting waters for Kupchack over the next couple of years.