Hornets Lineup Talk

[JMAC3]

One thing I have noticed is we as a board don't do a ton of analytics when dissecting lineups.
It has become a trend in the NBA to look at plus/minus at certain 3/4/5 man rotations. We usually don't do a ton of that.

For instance, last year our starting lineup used most often was

Ball, Rozier, Hayward, PJ and Mason - net rating of -2 in 199 mins.
Off rating of 110.7 and Def rating of 112.8

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?TeamID=1610612766&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN

Tough because we had so many injuries, not a lot of large sample sizes last year, but hoping this year will be different.

Here are our two most common lineups from 2 seasons ago.
https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?TeamID=1610612766&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN&Season=2021-22 

Ball, Rozier, Hayward, Bridges, Plumlee - net rating of -2.3 in 373 mins.
Off rating of 105.5 and Def Rating of 107.8

Ball, Rozier, Bridges, PJ, Plumlee - net rating of +9.2 in 327 mins.
Off rating of 120.2 and Def rating of 111.

[JMAC3]

I know we all have ideas on which lineup we think will work or won't work heading into the year. Who deserves to start etc... would be cool to have some more vindication as we track trends to start the year imo.

Especially with how much Brandon Miller should start talk we will have... and Miles vs PJ starting and which position Miles is most effective at 3 or 4.

[JMAC3]

Lineup first 10 games IMO.
Ball-Terry-Hayward-PJ-Mark.
3 good scorers and 2 glue guys.
Pretty weak frontcourt scoring punch.
NBA spacing

Lineup after 10 games IMO.
Ball-Terry-Miller-Miles-Mark.
3 good scorers, Miller and Mark can feast on easier looks.
Better front court scoring balance.
Hayward can play more of a ball handler role off bench and limit his mins in an attempt to stay healthy.

[fatlever]

We've have a dedicated thread for years called "fun with stats" where those conversations are the main point. It's in the index.

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[Bassman]

Lineup first 10 games IMO.
Ball-Terry-Hayward-PJ-Mark.
3 good scorers and 2 glue guys.
Pretty weak frontcourt scoring punch.
NBA spacing

Lineup after 10 games IMO.
Ball-Terry-Miller-Miles-Mark.
3 good scorers, Miller and Mark can feast on easier looks.
Better front court scoring balance.
Hayward can play more of a ball handler role off bench and limit his mins in an attempt to stay healthy.

I agree and believe that second lineup would be most effective in time. Doubtful Miller starts after 10 games (or close to that time). He will likely start when Hayward gets injured, so long as Cliff doesn’t try to play Miles and PJ together at the 3 and 4 instead. Having both PJ and Gordo playing off the bench would be a boost to that unit, as Richards generally holds his own. Will still have a huge deficiency at guard spots.

[JDR720]

I think the only question for the starting lineup is when/if Miles is back, who starts at PF. Him or PJ.

Miller isn't going to start unless Gordon gets hurt. And even then, if Miles is back, he'll start at SF and PJ at PF.

So I don't see a non-injury/no-Miles situation where Miller starts.

Our guard depth is horrible though. If/when Melo gets hurt, we're in a world of trouble.

[Rich4114]

We've have a dedicated thread for years called "fun with stats" where those conversations are the main point. It's in the index.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Are we the only board who wants to keep the same threads from 10 years ago open to discuss current things? There’s a reason nobody uses them, they’re really old and you have to post on page 72. Also we have like 10 posters here.

[Rich4114]

One of Terry or Gordon should really be leading the second unit and it would solve multiple problems IMO. Our second unit is going to be trash without any go to scorers or point guards.

One option pre Miles return:

LaMelo
Terry
Miller
PJ
Mark

Post Miles:

LaMelo
Terry
Miles
PJ
Mark

What will likely happen pre and post:

LaMelo
Terry
Hayward
PJ
Mark

But regardless of who starts, we cannot have stretches of lineups where a go to scoring option isn’t on the floor. We’ll have a bad, bad time if one of LaMelo / Terry / Miles isn’t on the floor at all times once the season ramps up. Maybe by the second half we’ll be fine if Miller is added to that list and I’d also say Hayward but we know he won’t play more than 40-50 games.

[fatlever]

We've have a dedicated thread for years called "fun with stats" where those conversations are the main point. It's in the index.

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

Are we the only board who wants to keep the same threads from 10 years ago open to discuss current things? There’s a reason nobody uses them, they’re really old and you have to post on page 72. Also we have like 10 posters here.

I don't care about the fact that we're starting a new thread, that's whatever. I was mainly disagreeing with the fact that our board doesn't do any type of statistical analytics on the games when we literally have had a thread dedicated to that for years.

And I highly disagree about the be using theme threads via an index, that's what makes our board extremely easy to navigate. Spirit of message boards is to keep similar topics group together in the same thread. Not to start a new thread every time someone has an idea. That's what Reddit and Twitter or for lol.

But you are right, given that there's only about 10 active posters it's not really that relevant anymore

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[JMAC3]

My fear with a potential Melo-Terry-Hayward-Miles-Mark lineup is that it leaves very few effective scorers off the bench.

Miller shouldn't be tasked with trying to be the main offensive cog of the 2nd unit, feels like a fast track to being inefficient. PJ also isn't really a guy that can be a consistent threat, we saw that last year when we gave him more usage.

I am fine with going with the most efficient lineups once we have the data though.

[amcoolio]

I know you want to be optimistic and are excited for the season but there is really no point in discussing what the best lineup is analytically because Steve Clifford is our coach, he's going to play the five guys he wants to play no matter what analytics says, and its going to be incredibly inefficient on both sides of the ball en route to a 32-50 record. It's like getting your hopes up for the seventh time in a row only to be crapped on again. The bright side is the new owners would have to be the biggest morons on planet earth to keep the staff next season. So just expect to treat this as another tanking year of unwatchable basketball for your sanity's sake

[Rich4114]

I know you want to be optimistic and are excited for the season but there is really no point in discussing what the best lineup is analytically because Steve Clifford is our coach, he's going to play the five guys he wants to play no matter what analytics says, and its going to be incredibly inefficient on both sides of the ball en route to a 32-50 record. It's like getting your hopes up for the seventh time in a row only to be crapped on again. The bright side is the new owners would have to be the biggest morons on planet earth to keep the staff next season. So just expect to treat this as another tanking year of unwatchable basketball for your sanity's sake

I agree with most of what you’re saying but I think despite all of that, we have the primary talent to be pretty competitive this season as long we we have enough health. What will hold us back is depth and veteran leadership. Something anyone who knows the NBA is aware of except the people running this team.

[JDR720]

On paper, this team is pretty talented.

The last time we had a top 10 PG and a top 10 C on the team at the same time was Kemba and Jefferson. Not including the single Dwight season.

And our role players are better than they were then. Miles (if he plays and hasn't regressed) gives us a legit "Mini-3" of Melo/Miles/Mark. That's better than Kemba/Al/Lance (at he time of signing, obviously Lance forgot how to play when he got here). Even if he doesn't play, Gordon/PJ/Rozier and Miller should be pretty solid too.

The issue is, unlike back them, the East is deep and talented from top to bottom. Except for maybe the Wiz, everyone else has a shot to make the playin/playoff.

It always feels like we're a year or two or three behind everyone else. And obviously the events of the past year or so makes it seem even worse.

Ironically, the aforementioned team back then and the team now has the same coach. That blows my mind. And makes it feel like we've made even less progress.

[JMAC3]

On paper, this team is pretty talented.

The last time we had a top 10 PG and a top 10 C on the team at the same time was Kemba and Jefferson. Not including the single Dwight season.

And our role players are better than they were then. Miles (if he plays and hasn't regressed) gives us a legit "Mini-3" of Melo/Miles/Mark. That's better than Kemba/Al/Lance (at he time of signing, obviously Lance forgot how to play when he got here). Even if he doesn't play, Gordon/PJ/Rozier and Miller should be pretty solid too.

The issue is, unlike back them, the East is deep and talented from top to bottom. Except for maybe the Wiz, everyone else has a shot to make the playin/playoff.

It always feels like we're a year or two or three behind everyone else. And obviously the events of the past year or so makes it seem even worse.

Ironically, the aforementioned team back then and the team now has the same coach. That blows my mind. And makes it feel like we've made even less progress.

Are you saying Mark is a top 10 center?

[JMAC3]

I would say our starters compared to the rest of the league.

PG- LaMelo is a top 10 point guard.
SG- Rozier is a bottom 5 starter at his position.
SF Gordon is a top 20ish starter at his position.
PF Miles is around 15th best PF
C- Mark is a top 20ish center

Where are starters drop the ball, we actually have one of the better short benches in the league if healthy.
Pj is a top 5 forward off the bench
Miller is a top 10 wing bench player
Richards is a top 10 backup center

[JMAC3]

I would say our starters compared to the rest of the league.

PG- LaMelo is a top 10 point guard.
SG- Rozier is a bottom 5 starter at his position.
SF Gordon is a top 20ish starter at his position.
PF Miles is around 15th best PF
C- Mark is a top 20ish center

Where are starters drop the ball, we actually have one of the better short benches in the league if healthy.
Pj is a top 5 forward off the bench
Miller is a top 10 wing bench player
Richards is a top 10 backup center

Coming around to Miller playing more 2 this year with Martin and Frank both not ready to play. Would much rather play Thor and Bridges at the 3 some then try to force feed mins to McGowens, Sumner and NSj at the 2 spot.

[Snidely FC]

I would say our starters compared to the rest of the league.

PG- LaMelo is a top 10 point guard.
SG- Rozier is a bottom 5 starter at his position.
SF Gordon is a top 20ish starter at his position.
PF Miles is around 15th best PF
C- Mark is a top 20ish center

Where are starters drop the ball, we actually have one of the better short benches in the league if healthy.
Pj is a top 5 forward off the bench
Miller is a top 10 wing bench player
Richards is a top 10 backup center

Coming around to Miller playing more 2 this year with Martin and Frank both not ready to play. Would much rather play Thor and Bridges at the 3 some then try to force feed mins to McGowens, Sumner and NSj at the 2 spot.

Yes Miller at the 2!

[JMAC3]

Houston is likely going to cut either Jeremiah Robinson Earl or Victor Oladipo. Either one would be a nice pickup for us.

[Rich4114]

We should've kept Jalen McDaniels lol

[JDR720]

On paper, this team is pretty talented.

The last time we had a top 10 PG and a top 10 C on the team at the same time was Kemba and Jefferson. Not including the single Dwight season.

And our role players are better than they were then. Miles (if he plays and hasn't regressed) gives us a legit "Mini-3" of Melo/Miles/Mark. That's better than Kemba/Al/Lance (at he time of signing, obviously Lance forgot how to play when he got here). Even if he doesn't play, Gordon/PJ/Rozier and Miller should be pretty solid too.

The issue is, unlike back them, the East is deep and talented from top to bottom. Except for maybe the Wiz, everyone else has a shot to make the playin/playoff.

It always feels like we're a year or two or three behind everyone else. And obviously the events of the past year or so makes it seem even worse.

Ironically, the aforementioned team back then and the team now has the same coach. That blows my mind. And makes it feel like we've made even less progress.

Are you saying Mark is a top 10 center?

This season? He could be. 12/10 with 2 blocks would've made him the 8th C (last year) to average a double-double and he'd be the only one to average 2 blocks. If he gets 1.5 blocks, he'd still be the only one besides Embiid.