The 8th Seed

[Rich4114]

So we are actually only 2 games back in the win column for the 8th seed currently held by the Hawks. I know some people are writing it off but with the new-found rotation and chemistry this team could seriously make that 8th spot with the EC being so weak.

The funny part about it too is say we do make the 8th seed, we actually match up well with Boston and probably have a better chance to beat them than Orlando or Detroit anyway. It would be an amazing story but getting that 8th seed is definitely a possibility. It'll be tough with all these road games left, but we'll see.

The frustrating thing is if we just ran this lineup from day one I know we'd be in a much better spot. We'd probably be holding a playoff spot right now had we not let Mcinnis run the team most of the year.

[SonicYouth34]

The 6'ers don't match up well with Boston, no one really does because you can't control all three of their stars at once. If they meet in the 1st round Boston in 4

[Pugsley_2491]

I hope you guys do get the 8th seed. You play boston the best out of every other 8th seed contender. I would love to see you guys pull off a GSW and knock off the celtics!

Plus I want better draft positioning

[W_HAMILTON]

The frustrating thing is if we just ran this lineup from day one I know we'd be in a much better spot.

No, sorry, won't allow that to happen. What's happening now doesn't change the past.

The frustrating thing is that this lineup didn't peform like this from day one.

Unless you're referring not as much to McInnis starting but Vincent playing him at all, in which case I tell you to be careful what you wish for, seeing as how you were one of the biggest whiners about Knight and Bernie, and look what you ended up with.

[BigSlam]

I wish that we didn't allow our home court to be hijacked over the last two months of the season!!

[Rich4114]

-= original quote snipped =-



No, sorry, won't allow that to happen. What's happening now doesn't change the past.

The frustrating thing is that this lineup didn't peform like this from day one.

Unless you're referring not as much to McInnis starting but Vincent playing him at all, in which case I tell you to be careful what you wish for, seeing as how you were one of the biggest whiners about Knight and Bernie, and look what you ended up with.

go away

[W_HAMILTON]

[Badd_Intentions]

I wish that we didn't allow our home court to be hijacked over the last two months of the season!!

Sucks but i'll be going to the ACC tourney, and had fun with the CIAA in town....not goin to the NCAA's cuz i know my wolfpack will not even sniff the big dance unless we pull of some 1983 magic and Lowe suits back up.

As for the 8th spot, it's a real possibility and NO ONE is talking about us being so close. They were just talking about the race for the 8th spot on Gamenight on NBA TV and they only mentioned the Nets and Bulls.

I hope we do make it b/c if we do that'd make us that much more an attractive place for good FA players to sign. If not we're gonna be in the lottery but won't have a shot at one of the top guys.

[Paydro70]

If you make an opinion statement, like "I know we'd be in a much better spot," you can't get upset if it gets challenged.

I happen to think you're right though, and the stats would suggest that not playing McInnis might have put us up another 4 wins or so, meaning we wouldn't have any more "catching up" to do.

[zero]

i don't know what the rest of your schedule is like, but i hope you all can sneak in. if you get in by one game consider the warriors loss a gift

when jason is focused he is hard to stop and that carries over to rest of the team. good luck everybody. good luck.

[fatlever]

i don't know what the rest of your schedule is like, but i hope you all can sneak in. if you get in by one game consider the warriors loss a gift

when jason is focused he is hard to stop and that carries over to rest of the team. good luck everybody. good luck.

20 remaining games. to make into the playoffs i figure we need to win 35-36 games, meaning we need to go 12-8 or 13-7 the rest of the season.

games in red = game we could and must win to stay alive

Mar 8 at Washington 7:00 pm WIN
Mar 12 at Dallas 8:30 pm
Mar 14 at Houston 8:30 pm
Mar 16 at Cleveland 6:00 pm
Mar 17 at Memphis 8:00 pm
Mar 19 at Indiana 7:00 pm
Mar 22 vs Miami 7:00 pm
Mar 25 at Utah 9:00 pm
Mar 26 at LA Lakers 10:30 pm
Mar 28 at Seattle 10:30 pm
Mar 29 at Portland 10:00 pm
Mar 31 vs Toronto 7:00 pm
Apr 2 vs Cleveland 7:00 pm
Apr 4 at Toronto 7:00 pm
Apr 5 vs Boston 7:00 pm
Apr 8 vs Minnesota 7:00 pm
Apr 9 at New York 7:30 pm
Apr 12 at Indiana 7:00 pm
Apr 15 at New Jersey 7:30 pm
Apr 16 vs Philadelphia 7:00 pm

even it we take care of the 10 games in red, we still must win 2 or 3 games. its not impossible but close. our best bets are Toronto at home, Toronto away and Portland away.

[Walt Cronkite]

Playoff Odds

Actual:24-39
Projected:31-51
Best sim:38-44
Worst sim:24-58 (in which case we'd probably all quit the board. Can you imagine the board morale if we followed the franchise win streak with 19 straight losses... ouch.)

Playoff Odds: 3.1%

Nets
Actual: 26-37
Projected: 32-50
Best sim: 41-41
Worst sim: 27-55

Playoff Odds: 11.5%

Bulls
Actual: 25-38
Projected: 34-48
Best sim: 41-41
Worst sim: 27-55

Playoff Odds: 27.6%

Indiana
Actual: 24-39
Projected: 34-48
Best sim: 41-41
Worst sim: 27-55

Playoff Odds: 28.5%

Atlanta
Actual: 26-36
Projected: 35-47
Best sim: 43-39
Worst sim: 26-56

Playoff Odds: 37%

Washington
Actual: 30-32
Projected: 40-42
Best sim: 47-35
Worst sim: 32-50

Playoff Odds: 95.4%

Philadelphia
Actual: 30-33
Projected: 41-41
Best sim: 47-35
Worst sim: 33-49

Playoff Odds: 95.8%

so...

As we all know, Bobcats must outplay projections to make the playoffs. The best possible simulated output would have us winning 14 of the last 19. Fats (see directly above) made a post about how we probably need 12 of the last 20.

We still need a lot of "help" from the 6 teams listed above. Despite being unable to score outside of the immediate basket area, Philly has defied all analytical wisdom and become a lock for the playoffs. The computer doesn't know this, but Washington has Caron and Gilbert coming back for their last 20ish games, so they ought to win more than their projected 10 games, but we can't catch them anyway.

This leaves Atlanta, Indiana, Chicago and New Jersey. Indiana currently has the largest playoff odds, but they've only won 3 of the last 10 and have been considered to be playing over their heads all season. I can't really see them only winning 3 more games, but maybe they win 6-8 more?

Chicago has lost 2 in a row, but has done better over their last 10 than Indiana (4-6). I think their projection is pretty realistic (34-48), 9 more wins is certainly attainable.

New Jersey has lost 5 in a row and the Jason Kidd trade seemed to be the franchise hoisting up a white flag. They're projected to win 6 more although they could steal some of the games over the last two weeks, but I think their playoff odds will soon dip.

If my writing is prophetic, then to this point we need 35 wins (11 more) to have a better record than the other teams that have been mentioned. I don't think we own a tie breaker over any of these teams (which is sad) so we'd have to have a better record outright.

Which brings me to the Hawks. They're only projected to win 9 of their last 20, but they're hard to project because of Bibby. They've only won 4 of their last 10, but with 20 games left I'm inclined to think they do better than their projected additional 9 wins and go more like 12-8, forcing us to win 15 of the last 19, or 1 game better than our best projected computer simulation.

Anyway, Atlanta is the team to watch in my estimation for anyone seriously considering Charlotte playoffs.

[chrbal]

I'm kind of torn at the idea, mostly because it would be a huge jump in the draft picks to not make the playoffs...but this team could really use that kind of reward, even if they only go 4 or 5 games with Boston.

[BigSlam]

That is a freaking awesome post Walt!!

Thanks very much.

[Walt Cronkite]

yea, I think the difference between the late lottery pick we'd get missing the playoffs vs. the mid 1st we get for making the playoffs isn't that much.

Augustin/Westbrook/Lawson vs. Calathes/Collison/Maynor/Mbemba

or Randolph/Griffin/Hickson/Arthur vs. Hansbrough/Hendrix/Ibaka/White

Sure, the lottery picks have less of a chance of busting out and much greater upside, but if we're close enough to the playoffs to barely miss them we really only need added depth. If we think Mohammed/Okafor can hold down the 5 and Wallace/Dudley/May/Morrison can play the forward positions then we take a guard to spell Felton/compete with him in practice. If we think May can't go (as most of us do), then isn't a Hansbrough/White limited upside but likely career rotation player less risky than Hickson, Arthur or Randolph?

If we had a legit shot at getting a top pick, I'd be on the tank wagon again, but knowing this club's tendency to try and win the easy ones at the end of the season, most likely we finish a 2 or 3 wins out of the playoffs and spin the second half of the season as a success.

[floppymoose]

Never pick the limited upside player. Always swing for the fence with every draft pick.

[Walt Cronkite]

Well, we're eliminating our chances of being able to do that for certain.

[e4Nf6]

Never pick the limited upside player. Always swing for the fence with every draft pick.

I don't neccesarily agree with this... Dudley is a good example of a guy with limited upside who I think was clearly the best choice....

[fluffernutter]

-= original quote snipped =-



I don't neccesarily agree with this... Dudley is a good example of a guy with limited upside who I think was clearly the best choice....

Yes, I agree. It's not clear to be that if you picked the highest upside 10 times in a draft, and get lucky once by selecting a TMAC-level superstar, that you will have a better team/better chance at a title than by picking 10 solid NBA prospects (4 starters, 2 bench players, 2 busts).

A lot of bad teams have a superstar and don't do anything. At least the Pistons got a ring with "just" a bunch of really solid players.

[floppymoose]

I don't neccesarily agree with this... Dudley is a good example of a guy with limited upside who I think was clearly the best choice....

Dudley *was* the swing for the fences pick. There was no one left at #22. Sean Williams was probably the last long shot star taken, at #17.