RealGM

Hi everyone. As you know I am the resident number-cruncher of the board, so in an effort to illuminate our off-season discussions, coaching search, and draft selections, I have decided to put together this wrapup. I am not going to offer much analysis except to explain what these numbers mean and suggest; I leave it to anyone else who sees something notable to decide what to make of them. All rankings are from "best" (or "most" if stat is neutral) to "worst." If people want, I can put together a player-by-player post too.

TEAM:
Record: 32-50 (.390), 23rd in the NBA, 19-33 (.365) against East, 13-17 (.433) against West.
Best Record Against Division: Northwest, 8-2.
Worst Record Against Division: Southwest, 1-9.
Strength of Schedule: 0.493, 23rd in the NBA.
(Note, this is an especially low number for a bad team. The Celtics had the "easiest" schedule, in large part because they beat everyone they played and hurt their records. Only one team with an easier schedule failed to make the playoffs (the Pacers). Still, NBA SOS is extremely uniform because 56 games of every schedule are identical.)

Margin of Victory: -4.68 (22nd in the NBA)
Pythagorean Winning %: 0.350 (29-51)
(Note: Pythagorean wins are determined by a formula that estimates how many wins a team "should" win based on their scoring margin. This is actually much better than simply counting wins, in terms of predictive power. The Bobcats went 8-6, for instance, in games closer than 3 points, which is basically luck.... we should have lost another 3 games there, bringing us down to 29 wins.)
Pace: 90.3 possessions per game, tied for 13th in the NBA.

Against Good teams (1-10): 16% expected wins, 24th in NBA
Against Average Teams (11-20): 45% expected wins, 17th in NBA
Against Bad Teams (21-30): 53% expected wins, 25th in NBA
(Note: This is based on our ppg and points allowed against the various calibers of team. Obviously it is rather strange to do so much better (relatively) against average teams than against good or bad.)

1st Quarter: -1.5 pts (23rd), won 42% of the time (22nd)
2nd Quarter: -0.4 pts (17th), won 52% of the time (14th)
3rd Quarter: -1.8 pts (27th), won 36% of the time (29th)
4th Quarter: -0.5 pts (21st), won 50% of the time (18th)
Overtime: -1.7 pts (25th), won 28% of the time (24th)
(Note: As this obviously suggests, we did our best in the 2nd quarter, worst in the third.)

OFFENSE:
Overall: 106.3 Pts per 100 possessions, 23rd in the NBA.
From the field: 49.2% eFG%, 16th in the NBA.
(Note: eFG% adjusts for the value of 3pters).
Turnovers: 16.09 per 100 possessions, 21nd in the NBA.
Offensive Rebounds: 25.63% of missed shots, 20st in the NBA
Free Throws: 23.0fta/100fga, 11th in the NBA. 71.4% from the line, 29th in the NBA.
3pters: 22% of FGA, 15th in the NBA, 37% shooting, 12th in the NBA.
2pters: 78% of FGA, 47.6%, 17th in the NBA.

DEFENSE:
Overall: 111.27 Pts per 100 possessions, 23rd in the NBA.
From the field: 50.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA.
Turnovers: 15.7 per 100 possessions, 10th most in the NBA.
Defensive Rebounds: 71% of missed shots, 27th in the NBA.
Free Throws: 23.5fta/fga, 17th in the NBA.
3pters: 22% of FGA, 22nd in the NBA, 36% allowed, 8th in the NBA.
2pters: 78% of FGA, 49.7% allowed, 24th in the NBA

(I realize there may be some confusion here, so to summarize, we were good at getting to the line, forcing turnovers, and defending the 3pter, and bad at everything else.)

Thanks Paydro - quality stuff.

I'm suprised the numbers don't show that we were better in the 1st qtrs. It seemed like we were but it seems like we were almost as bad as we were in the 3rd - and we didn't need to see the numbers to know how much we sucked arse in the 3rds.

good stuff paydro.

even the stuff we were "good" at was close to middle of the pack. we didnt really have one area that was something we could really be proud of. in years past under bernie there seemed to always be a few areas which we were at the top in the league.

those 3rd quarter numbers sting.

Felton was 2nd in the East in assists and 7th in the NBA among those who qualified.

He was also about 40th in assist:bad pass turnover ratio, and 29th in pure point rating... but that's a discussion for the player post, which I'll clearly have to do.

I know; those numbers just surprised me, especially since Felton didn't play point a lot of the time. He still has too many turnovers.

MMM....stats...

We've set ourselves up to be the most improved club next season!!

There's no doubt we'll improve on almost everything next year. The 29th worst 3rd quarter thing is a reflection of coaching. It shows that the other team adjusted their gameplan at half time to counter what was working for us and we never adjusted outselves resulting in getting owned constantly in 3rd quarters.

With the scoring capability of this team we should be above average in scoring so I hope to see that improve next year. Our rebounding and defense is what's going to determine just how good we are though. Even poor offensive teams (like Houston) can win 50+ games by having excellent defense.

I know, I'm so happy! Sammy's reign has come to an end!! I don't care if we let JRich be a player-coach; we'll be better next year with the subtraction of Vincent alone.

Houston was an average offensive team, not poor... they were much better than us.

I don't really think that the third quarter is an indicator of coaching ability... I think it's just plain old "ability." Mostly teams rank about equal to how good they are; top teams like Boston and Detroit are at the top, bad teams like Seattle and Memphis are at the bottom. We're only 4 ranks below "expected," far more unusual drops are Cleveland (16 to 29), or Philadelphia (14 to 23).

It might be nice if you could gleam some silver lining from the stormclouds...

Is there ANYTHING statistical that ANYONE did this season which is worth mentioning?

I'm talking, like top 5 in the nba?

Perhaps:

1) JRich: 3pointers made?
2) Okafor:...um... most back-to-back blocks on the same enemy possession? err...
3) Felton... err... fouls drawn in last minute of game...fewest pure ball handling turnovers...err..?
4) GWall: most... um... I have no idea.
5) Dudley: god... no clue
6) Rest of team: ok this is impossible. It was really a bad year.

fluffernutter wrote:It might be nice if you could gleam some silver lining from the stormclouds...

Is there ANYTHING statistical that ANYONE did this season which is worth mentioning?

I'm talking, like top 5 in the nba?

Perhaps:

1) JRich: 3pointers made?
2) Okafor:...um... most back-to-back blocks on the same enemy possession? err...
3) Felton... err... fouls drawn in last minute of game...fewest pure ball handling turnovers...err..?
4) GWall: most... um... I have no idea.
5) Dudley: god... no clue
6) Rest of team: ok this is impossible. It was really a bad year.

He lead the league in attmepted and made and was the 4th highest in the history of the NBA for a single season!

And most importantly, he connected at 40%, which is quite good.

okafor was second in getting his shot blocked... oh wait, that is not a good thing. my bad.

New positive for the Bobcats, courtesy of 82games:
We had 210 and-1 opportunities on the year, tied with Denver for 7th in the NBA.

Downside: we were the most blocked team in the league on close shots. We were mostly middle of the road in terms of our distribution of shots, but had bad FG% on both jumpers and close shots, and dunks.

Go Bobcats. Go.

NICE!