J-rich untouchable?

[e4Nf6]

One thing I've noticed in all these trade threads is that nobody is trading Richardson. Crash, Mek, etc. are all tradeable but nobody want's to give up Richardson.

Of course Crash is better trade bait because he's younger and has a better contract. but somebody must be interested....

a few ideas, pulled from my nether regions, so don't jump all over me.

1. S&T for Arenas (If he and the wiz aren't getting along)
2. S&T for 'Melo (Nuggs don't go for it probably)
3. S&T for Brand (I guess magette would have to be gone for this to work)
4. the reverse of how we aquired him.....say straight up for a high draft pick (and filler?)

Clearly in my opinion our best player last year, and his contract isn't that bad for a 20ppg guy. Cleveland, for example, would kill for him, but what do they have to offfer?

[fatlever]

jrich is certainly not untouchable, but i think its harder to envision a realistic trade scenario involving him that makes sense to us.

plus he is our only outside threat among starters, so its hard to think about trading him w/out replacing that aspect. i would trade jrich for all three players you mentioned above. and i would follow with many subsequent trades to re-balance the roster.

[spectre_]

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=797513

I got called out for not wanting to trade him for Howard/Bass.

Swish is the player I'm going to unabashedly be most homerific about. He's come out frigging huge against superior talent (Boston), he improved his FT% during the season as well as turning his D up a notch, and he brought emotion into the lineup.

Something pretty darn good better be coming back before I'd consider it...most likely something other teams wouldn't offer.

And I'm perfectly fine with that.

[witness87]

He's far from untouchable. That's the major aspect this Bobcats team lacks is that one untouchable guy. Unfortunately until we find that guy we're likely just playing for a chance to make the playoffs and maybe upset a team in the first.

Elton Brand would be great, but from the players you mentioned, I would absolutely look into acquiring Carmelo with all of my power. The fact that he is even on the market is mindboggling. It is amazing how low this 24 year old's stock is in the eyes of many. There are people that act like the Nuggets weaknesses were purely Carmelo's fault, as if you put an average starter in his position and the team would win 60 games and coast to a championship. Carmelo can be one of the best in the league and he's not far now. As constructed, this Bobcat's team isn't too likely ever to contend, but with Carmelo, we have a chance. I am sure I seem to be overrating Carmelo, but I am just a believer that w/o that superstar you're going to have a very difficult time winning as history indicates and if Carmelo has any chance at all to become that player he is worth the risk to this franchise.

So to sort of answer the question, yeah I would definitely trade JRich for Carmelo, as well as any of our players or draft selections. This franchise is dangerously close to the NBA purgatory of being just decent enough to never have the ping pong balls to acquire that special player. If that risk is there let's go and never look back.

[fatlever]

witness, i hear you loud and clear. this is a superstar league and you cant compete (the lone exception in the past 30 years being the recent pistons) w/ out a superstar, mvp, first-team nba type talent leading the way.

of course it takes baby steps usually to get to the point of contending, so making the playoffs just to generate some buzz in the city and around the league, should probably be our first priority.

but lets not kid ourselves... our core (felton, jrich, wallace and okafor) if it remains as is (maybe adding a few pieces here and there), will not sniff contending for a title. EVER. there is no question about it.

for now, i guess i am ok with the the short-term goal of making the playoffs with this core group. this teams needs that type of success to get the city behind the team and to show the league the bobcats are not just OK with being a lottery team forever.

in addition to needing a superstar, to be a contender you have to be able to attract players who are willing to sign for cheap just to have a shot of playing for a title. in today's NBA i'd say its damn near impossible to get to contending level w/out those types of players on the roster (pj brown, cassell, posey, fisher, finley, brent barry, kurt thomas, webber-pistons etc...)

at some point we all need to decide which direction we want this team to go. do we want to be a team that is a playoff level team for a long time, but not really considered a contender (like say the jazz are now or the wizards now)? OR do we eventually want to go for broke and try to win a championship, which i'm not sure is even possible anymore from a small market city like charlotte (i'll believe it when i see it - charlotte, indiana, sacto, memphis, minny, portland etc) unless you have tim duncan.

if and when we really decide to start gunning for rings, the FO will have to make some bold moves to acquire a superstar. the end result may mean rebuilding the team more than once while waiting to land a top 3 pick in the draft or making a ballsy trade like overpaying for someone like carmelo and then re-making the entire roster around him.

something tells me MJ is not the type of owner who will sit back and have a team that is content making the playoffs each year but never really contending. i think he is the type that would rather blow a team up and suffer through many losing seasons in search of a superstar. i am willing to bet that mj thinks the only way to win a ring is to have an mj like talent on the team. i doubt he believes its possible to do using the recent pistons as a model. mj wants one superstar, surrounded by an all-star level wing man and role players as opposed to 5 solid starters but no real superstar.

but hey.... if we go for the team argentina idea or the all euro idea, then i am ok w/ the not contending but making the playoffs thing.

[Paydro70]

Good post Fats, I think I agree with every point, except that the Jazz could legitimately win a title with the current roster, in my opinion.

Unless we improve the status of the team, free agents will avoid us and players will protest against being traded to us. That basically leaves us with the draft and nothing else, so unless we get lucky one year and win the lotto, or hit on a superstar with a mid-late lottery pick, we should focus on the intermediate goal of making the playoffs and appearing to be a legitmate team. The Pistons were a total freak occurrence going back at least twenty years, it is extremely unlikely that we succeed with their model.

JRich is therefore no more important than any other player, because he's just another prime player. He's not someone you can build around, frankly he probably can't be any better than the third-best player on a championship roster. If the right deal comes along, absolutely I'd trade him.

[Walt Cronkite]

He's my current favorite Bobcat, but yes to e4nf6's 2 and 3 proposals

edit: and if anyone could win with Arenas, it'd be LB, so add him too.

[fatlever]

the henry williams formula... to be a contender you must have:
1 superstar, 1 capable star and 1 bail out guy.

i'd say right now the bobcats have 1 capable star = jrich and 2 bailout guys in wallace and okafor.

lets test the theory:

2008
boston - garnett, pierce, allen = pass
lakers - kobe, pau, gasol = pass

2007
spurs - duncan, manu, parker = pass
cavs - lebron, big z, none = fail due to cavs missing bailout guy

2006
heat - wade, shaq, none = fail due to heat missing bailout guy
mavs - dirk, howard, terry = pass

2005
spurs - duncan, manu, parker = pass
pistons - none, billups/hamilton/prince/wallace/wallace = fail due to no superstar (but they had have 5 capable stars)

2004
pistons - none, billups/hamilton/prince/wallace/wallace = fail due to no superstar (but they had have 5 capable stars)
lakers - kobe, shaq, payton/malone

2003
spurs - duncan, parker, jackson = pass
nets - kidd, martin, van horn = pass (barely)

2002
lakers - shaq, kobe, none = fail (but they had 2 superstars)
nets - kidd, martin, van horn = pass (barely)

2001
lakers - shaq, kobe, fisher = pass
sixers - iverson, mutombo, mckie = pass (barely - mckie had a great year in 2001)

2000
lakers - shaq, kobe, rice = pass
pacers - none, miller/rose, smits = fail (tough call - miller averaged 24ppg in the playoffs and rose averaged 20ppg, but i wouldnt consider either a superstar, smits was still a really solid center, but mainly this team was deep and tons of vets)

1999*
spurs - duncan, robinson, elliot/avery = pass
knicks - none, sprewell/houston/camby, lj = fail (no true superstar, one of the few teams in the history of the league to make it to the finals by suprising everyone, that rarely happens w/ a 7 games series)
* strike season

1998
bulls - jordan/pippen,none, kukoc/rodman = pass (two superstars trumps a capable star)
jazz - malone/stockton, none, hornacek = pass (see above)

1997
bulls - jordan/pippen,none, kukoc/rodman = pass (two superstars trumps a capable star)
jazz - malone/stockton, none, hornacek = pass (see above)

1996
bulls - jordan/pippen,none, kukoc/rodman = pass (two superstars trumps a capable star)
sonics - payton, kemp, schrempf

1995
rockets - hakeem/drexler, none, horry/cassell = pass
magic - shaq/hardaway, none, scott/anderson/grant = pass

1994
rocket - hakeem, none, thorpe/smith/maxwell = fail (but this year hakeem was so freaking awesome it didnt matter that he didnt have a capable star next to him, that team as also deep and lots of vets)
knicks - ewing, oakley, starks = pass

1993
bulls - jordan/pippen, none, grant = pass
suns - barkley, johnson, majerlie = pass

1992
bulls - jordan/pippen, none, grant = pass
blazers - drexler, porter, williams = pass

1991
bulls - jordan/pippen, none, grant = pass
lakers - magic, worthy, perkins = pass

1990
pistons - isiah, dumars, laimbeer/edwards/johnson/aquirre = pass (DEEP)
blazers - drexler, porter, williams = pass

1989
pistons - isiah, dumars, laimbeer/edwards/johnson/aquirre = pass (DEEP)
lakers - magic, worthy, scott = pass

i'm gonna stop here because the lakers and celtics in the 80s were stacked with superstars, capable stars and bailout guys. the sixers had dr j, moses malone, mo cheeks and bobby jones. the rockers had hakeem, ralph sampson and robert reid.


so i counted maybe 8 teams out of 30 years and 60 teams that did not meet the henry williams formula.

[ohara]

No one on this team could be considered untradeable. But of the current members, J-Rich is likely the last I would want to trade. He proved himself to be clutch. But, he does carry a high price. So if the deal was right, yes, I'd pull the trigger. But it would have to be very very right.

[Paydro70]

Clutch is made up... also, how "clutch" can you really prove yourself to be outside the playoffs?

Fats: I find those categories to be too vague... the Pistons, for instance, I don't think had 5 capable stars. Tayshaun, to pick the clearest example, is worse than Kobe, Parker, Manu, Old Shaq, etc. Can a defensive specialist like Ben Wallace be a star or a bailout guy?

Anyway, I think it's a little more flexible. My own thought is that you need either two hall of famers, one hall of famer and two (at least borderline) allstars, or (and this even gets Detroit) four borderline allstars. The major exceptions to this rule are 2001 Spurs and 1994 Rockets, which had an HOF big man but really not much else. Also the 89 & 90 Pistons require you to think of Isiah and Joe Dumars as superstars, which at least statistically they definitely were not at that point. Then again those teams made it in a more physical era, and did it mostly with defense.

Obviously any of these are going to have exceptions and subjectivity. I don't think anyone can claim that our roster even approaches title-worthy right now. IF Okafor puts up more points, AND Crash goes back to pre-contract Crash, AND JRich is playing at peak, AND Felton improves greatly, AND we get a much better bench, then we're looking like a team that can at least make a run, but even then would we be better than the Pistons? Probably not.

[fatlever]

Fats: I find those categories to be too vague... the Pistons, for instance, I don't think had 5 capable stars. Tayshaun, to pick the clearest example, is worse than Kobe, Parker, Manu, Old Shaq, etc. Can a defensive specialist like Ben Wallace be a star or a bailout guy?

Anyway, I think it's a little more flexible. My own thought is that you need either two hall of famers, one hall of famer and two (at least borderline) allstars, or (and this even gets Detroit) four borderline allstars. The major exceptions to this rule are 2001 Spurs and 1994 Rockets, which had an HOF big man but really not much else. Also the 89 & 90 Pistons require you to think of Isiah and Joe Dumars as superstars, which at least statistically they definitely were not at that point. Then again those teams made it in a more physical era, and did it mostly with defense.

Obviously any of these are going to have exceptions and subjectivity. I don't think anyone can claim that our roster even approaches title-worthy right now. IF Okafor puts up more points, AND Crash goes back to pre-contract Crash, AND JRich is playing at peak, AND Felton improves greatly, AND we get a much better bench, then we're looking like a team that can at least make a run, but even then would we be better than the Pistons? Probably not.

yeah, i agree paydro. i was trying to test the formula that henry williams always talks about on tv. but i really have no idea how to define a "bailout guy"

like you said, it takes at least one superstar, one near superstar supporter and a great cast of role players, good coaching and luck.

what is apparent... we will eventually need to acquire a superstar if we want to contend and it could take years before we land in a situation to acquire a superstar.

[fatlever]

my superstar list

superstars - guys who you can build a franchise around
1. kobe
2. james
3. duncan
4. garnett
5. paul
6. wade
7. nowitzki
8. nash
9. d. howard
10. amare
11. melo
12. bosh
13. pierce
14. iverson
15. arenas (when healthy)
16. ming
17. brand (when healthy)
18. mcgrady

potential future superstars or second tier stars
1. oden
2. durant
3. aldridge
4. jefferson
5. horford

second tier stars - guys who make others around them better. guys you can run your offense through, guys who can take over a game, but just arent quite on the level of a superstar

1. deron
2. ginobili
3. boozer
4. baron
5. parker
6. billups
7. roy
8. joe johnson
9. west
10. iguodala
11. josh smith
12. butler
13. gasol
14. kidd
15. miller
16. hedo
17. odom
18. artest

the bail out guys - i define as guys who excel at one or two aspects of the game, but dont really elevate the players around them, meaning you cant really build you team around these players but they make excellent complimentary pieces

1. kevin martin
2. jason richardson
3. hamilton
4. carter
5. rashard lewis
6. richard jefferson
7. josh howard
8. gerald wallace
9. maggette
10. ellis
11. deng
12. stojakovic
13. gordon
14. terry
15. okur
16. big z
17. crawford
18. jackson
19. okafor
20. chandler
21. dunleavy

[Rich4114]

I would actually put J-Rich in the second tiers category.

I agree with pretty much everything you're saying Fats, but let's not overlook that there's sometimes stars that develop from within - especially on young teams with good coaches. We have guys right now with superstar or all-star potential but there's no home run this guy is a superstar currently on this roster.

Guys like Wallace and Okafor, I think we've seen their ceiling, you could also potentially say the same for Felton though I think he will show us more than he has in a better situation next season. But guys like Morrison, or even May and Dudely _could_ fit into one of your categories up top one day. Especially Morrison. Now it's certainly not in our favor that any of this will happen, especially a superstar - but who knows maybe the next guy we draft will end up being that guy and the others already on the team will develop into supporting all-stars. What I do know is if one or two guys figure it out, we're going to have a team of incredible depth because everyone is already pretty good and the talent is definitely there. Landing a big time guy would fix it but they don't grow on trees and you need to get lucky to get one.

But it is interesting looking at your list of championships. What that tells me is that you don't win unless you have a dominating front line. Something we DEFINITELY don't have so if we are going to contend we need to upgrade that position more importantly even if that means ditching one of our wings, PG, etc.

[cdubbz]

Define "bailout" player. I know what a superstar and capable star is, but not bailout player. Im guessing it either means 1. a player you can blame for downfalls 2. A player who can "bail out" the other two with a big night Im guessing its number 2, but the term "bailout" player is misleading. Maybe it should be superstar, capable star, and X factor or simply third option

[cdubbz]

the henry williams formula... to be a contender you must have:
1 superstar, 1 capable star and 1 bail out guy.

i'd say right now the bobcats have 1 capable star = jrich and 2 bailout guys in wallace and okafor.

lets test the theory:

2008
boston - garnett, pierce, allen = pass
lakers - kobe, pau, gasol = pass

2007
spurs - duncan, manu, parker = pass
cavs - lebron, big z, none = fail due to cavs missing bailout guy

2006
heat - wade, shaq, none = fail due to heat missing bailout guy
mavs - dirk, howard, terry = pass

2005
spurs - duncan, manu, parker = pass
pistons - none, billups/hamilton/prince/wallace/wallace = fail due to no superstar (but they had have 5 capable stars)

2004
pistons - none, billups/hamilton/prince/wallace/wallace = fail due to no superstar (but they had have 5 capable stars)
lakers - kobe, shaq, payton/malone

2003
spurs - duncan, parker, jackson = pass
nets - kidd, martin, van horn = pass (barely)

2002
lakers - shaq, kobe, none = fail (but they had 2 superstars)
nets - kidd, martin, van horn = pass (barely)

2001
lakers - shaq, kobe, fisher = pass
sixers - iverson, mutombo, mckie = pass (barely - mckie had a great year in 2001)

2000
lakers - shaq, kobe, rice = pass




1999*
spurs - duncan, robinson, elliot/avery = pass
knicks - none, sprewell/houston/camby, lj = fail (no true superstar, one of the few teams in the history of the league to make it to the finals by suprising everyone, that rarely happens w/ a 7 games series)
* strike season

1998
bulls - jordan/pippen,none, kukoc/rodman = pass (two superstars trumps a capable star)
jazz - malone/stockton, none, hornacek = pass (see above)

1997
bulls - jordan/pippen,none, kukoc/rodman = pass (two superstars trumps a capable star)
jazz - malone/stockton, none, hornacek = pass (see above)

1996
bulls - jordan/pippen,none, kukoc/rodman = pass (two superstars trumps a capable star)
sonics - payton, kemp, schrempf

1995
rockets - hakeem/drexler, none, horry/cassell = pass
magic - shaq/hardaway, none, scott/anderson/grant = pass

1994
rocket - hakeem, none, thorpe/smith/maxwell = fail (but this year hakeem was so freaking awesome it didnt matter that he didnt have a capable star next to him, that team as also deep and lots of vets)
knicks - ewing, oakley, starks = pass

1993
bulls - jordan/pippen, none, grant = pass
suns - barkley, johnson, majerlie = pass

1992
bulls - jordan/pippen, none, grant = pass
blazers - drexler, porter, williams = pass

1991
bulls - jordan/pippen, none, grant = pass
lakers - magic, worthy, perkins = pass

1990
pistons - isiah, dumars, laimbeer/edwards/johnson/aquirre = pass (DEEP)
blazers - drexler, porter, williams = pass

1989
pistons - isiah, dumars, laimbeer/edwards/johnson/aquirre = pass (DEEP)
lakers - magic, worthy, scott = pass

i'm gonna stop here because the lakers and celtics in the 80s were stacked with superstars, capable stars and bailout guys. the sixers had dr j, moses malone, mo cheeks and bobby jones. the rockers had hakeem, ralph sampson and robert reid.


so i counted maybe 8 teams out of 30 years and 60 teams that did not meet the henry williams formula.

Reggie miller is a superstar