Okafor's Defense

[fatlever]

is okafor really one of the best defenders in the league? we paid okafor 70 millions largely because he is considered one of the best post defenders in the league. we certainly didnt pay him for his offense. okafor is a great rebounder and he blocks a lot of shots, but is he really a lock down defender? 70 million for a rebounding, defensive specialist, you expect to get one of the league premier defenders. is okafor one of the league premier defender? or does he simply get a good rep due to the double figure rebounds and the many blocks?

who can he shut down? how many games in the past few years can you recall where okafor shut down a high scoring big man? he doesnt defend quick, jumpshooting bigs well and he doesnt defender strong, overpowering bigs well? just who are we paying okafor to stop?

i'd say okafors biggest strenght is his abilty to stay out of foul trouble. but then again, how much of that is reputation? there are a lot of bigs in the league that can average 10 rebounds and 2 blocks when given 35 minutes. the problem is they cant stay on the floor due to fouls. so i'll give okafor credit there. he does a great job of staying out of foul trouble.

haslem 16pts 7rbs
r wallace 15pt 4rbs
randolph 25pts 13rbs
bosh 30pts 15rbs
nene 12pts 7rbs
boozer 25pts 15rbs/koufus 9pts 10rbs 5blks

and we havent even faced some of the better bigs in the league (garnett, duncan, howard, brand, amare/shaq)

so far this season the only bigs okafor has shut down were the hornets (west and chandler) which i think had more to do with our great defense on paul (which i will give credit to okafor since he was great at rotating in that game).

so is okafor's defensive value purely as a team defender, a guy who can get out on pick and rolls and scramble back to cover the rim? is his value simply as a shot blocker or rebounder? i'd argue the rebounding part though, since okafor rarely shuts down the rebounds from the opposing team. okafor never blocks out and gives up a lot of offensive rebounds as a result (wallace too).

btw... anddris biedrins is averaging - 16.8pts and 14.8rbs - for the season. wow.

so, to the stat junkies. lets see some evidence (for or against) about okafor's defense over the years.

can we become a dominating defensive team with okafor as the anchor?

[W_HAMILTON]

I guess we need Okafor to outright miss a few games, so we can allow 125ppg like we did that one time he missed a couple of weeks.

[Paydro70]

Okay, here's a summary of all statistics I can find on his defense.

DRTG: 04-05 - 105
05-06 - 104
06-07 - 102
07-08 - 105
08-09 - 108
This is effectively points allowed per 100 possessions... last year the average was around 108, so the previous years were above-average but not extreme. Elite defenders are around 100, so only the 06-07 season would suggest that he was close to that level.

DWS: 04-05 - 3.2
05-06 - 1.2
06-07 - 3.6
07-08 - 3.6
08-09 - 0.2
This one is kind of based on team success... so it's not surprising that Okafor's numbers are uninspiring... still, 3.6 is above-average.

PER Allowed: 04-05 - ~17
05-06 - 13.8
06-07 - 16.7
07-08 - 19.5
08-09 - 18.6
While PER is supposed to be standardized to 15, on 82games it's not quite... it's really more like 17/18, so in overall production Okafor has been about average.

Defensive +/-: 04-05 - +1.9
05-06 - -2.2
06-07 - -5.8
07-08 - -1.1
08-09 - -1.6
This is a stat that Okafor should really dominate, because he's supposedly much better on defense than anyone who's playing in place of him. His difference-making numbers here seem pretty marginal.

The last stat is adjusted +/-... only for this last season has there been an attempt to split it into offense and defense, but the result was that Okafor was below-average among 2000+ minute players.

So, overall conclusions? It seems like there is abundant evidence that Okafor is at least an above-average post defender. The 06-07 year, when he was probably at his best in all phases, he approached elite status, but has subsequently fallen back off.

[fatlever]

okafor, "at least an above-average defender"? i would not argue that conclusion.

[fatlever]

ham, do you consider okafor an elite defensive player?

[floppymoose]

btw... anddris biedrins is averaging - 16.8pts and 14.8rbs - for the season. wow.

I got slaughtered over here when I said he was as good as Okafor.

[e4Nf6]

to me this is yet another tragedy of the Vincent Regime...

In 06-07 Mek looked to be becoming a Ben Wallace type dominant Rebounder/All around defender. And then he regressed a bit last year. Of course, absolutely everybody played worse last year than the year before.

I'm optimistic that Mek can return with a bit of actual coaching as opposed to whatever it was that Sam provided.

That said, post-Vincent Mek is still a good player. He's been in the top ten of Rebound% every year he has been in the league. We all might cringe a bit at how much he gets paid but I would say he is the one player we can least afford to lose. He is really the only interior defensive force on the whole team.

[Walt Cronkite]

To add on to e4's post-- It's hard to shut down a post player when you're responsible for multiple bigs AND you held responsible for protecting the rim in general. I think a second big would really do wonders for Emeka, but since this is something we've never/may never see, I guess it's totally hypothetical. Also, I recognize that if we ever do acquire second big beside Okafor I'll be devastated when he still panks out.

Floppy-I for one apologize. I thought Beans was a really solid young big that had his value inflated by a system that played to his strengths and a pg that knew how to use him. With BD in Clipperland, this is obviously not the case.

[fatlever]

btw... anddris biedrins is averaging - 16.8pts and 14.8rbs - for the season. wow.

I got slaughtered over here when I said he was as good as Okafor.

yes you did... not by me, but you did.

[fatlever]

We all might cringe a bit at how much he gets paid but I would say he is the one player we can least afford to lose. He is really the only interior defensive force on the whole team.

i would agree that mek is the player we can least afford to lose right now. but, its not because i think he is so invaluable that we cant function w/out him. its simply due to the fact that we have absolutely zero depth behind him. its like having felton and mcinnis. felton is much more valuable on the floor when mcinnis is the backup option. now that we have dj, not as much. felton is still the same player, but our backup options are drastically better.

i was in favor of re-signing mek, even at 70mil. and once we get some more legit post players i will be OK with trading him, assuming he doesnt improve.

[Paydro70]

Re Biedrins better than Okafor:
At the time, he wasn't. His stats leapt up this year in every category, and not because of more minutes: from 19.1 to 22.3 Rebound %, 5.2 to 8.4% assist rate, 106 to 102 DRTG, and, most importantly, 14.4 to 20.2 usage rate. He's boarding better, passing better, defending better, and getting the ball DRAMATICALLY more and still shooting over .550.

My own thought was that he was a good rebounder, but that it was inflated because he was the only big man on his team. I thought offensively he was just a dunk/layup machine, that he would fall off hard if given more touches, and THAT is what I (and most others) were really wrong about.

[fatlever]

i guess we just arent use to seeing a young big man improve from one season to the next.

[BigSlam]

Floppy-I for one apologize. I thought Beans was a really solid young big that had his value inflated by a system that played to his strengths and a pg that knew how to use him. With BD in Clipperland, this is obviously not the case.

I'm with you Walt. I've watched the last 3 GSW games and have been really impressed with Beans. While he might not ever have much of a post game, his attack on the boards (especially offensive) and his length combined with his quick 2nd and 3rd efforts have been really impressive.

[chabber]

Re Biedrins better than Okafor:My own thought was that he was a good rebounder, but that it was inflated because he was the only big man on his team. I thought offensively he was just a dunk/layup machine, that he would fall off hard if given more touches, and THAT is what I (and most others) were really wrong about.

Funny, if I didn't know you were talking about Biedrins there I'd think you were talking about Okafor.

Good post fats and I'm right there with your thoughts on Emeka. I'm pretty sure I agreed with Floppy too or at least thought the two were close enough not argue a Biedrins/Okafor comparison. I may have even preferred him over Okafor at the time because he's younger, taller and I thought he'd make slightly less on his next contract.

[fatlever]

i'm really not trying to pile a bunch of hate on okafor, but at 70mil, we have some questions that need to be discussed, especially, since once again, it appears okafor has made zero improvements to his game in the offseason.

i just want to know if everyone really views him as a great defensive player. i think that a lot of that is old reputation from college. i fail to see him dominate defensively game to game. blocking shots does not make you a great defender. there have been some fantastic low post defenders who didnt block shots: karl malone, cliff robinson, rasheed wallace, charles oakley, buck williams etc...

i think okafor is a good, not great defender, mainly because he does not matchup well with so many bigs. he doesnt defend quick jump shooting bigs well and he doesnt defend the power post players well. too small and too slow.

i think he is a solid rebounder, who has some inflated numbers due to being on a team with no other bigs.

and i'll say again, his best attribute is the ability to stay out of foul trouble, which is a sign of a smart defender. okafor is smart. there are lots of players who can block shots and rebound at a rate better than okafor, they just cant stay on the floor long enough to make an impact. dumb fouls. okafor is like 30-50 range in both rebounds and blocks per 48min.

[Rich4114]

Okafor doesn't really stay out of foul trouble usually, at least it seems that way to me. I think not having someone who can stretch the floor next to him or hold their own against NBA PF's is hurting him though. I do notice he's doing the Ben Wallace tap out thing now (which I'm sure comes from Larry) so if we could make him into a rebounding/blocking machine and rely on everyone else to score then I'm cool with that. If we're so owned on the inside though, he's just going to be out numbered. Maybe it's time to consider playing him and Alexis/Hollins/Nazr together?

[Walt Cronkite]

Okafor did the tap out last year too, I remember because it drives me nuts. It's a sign of frustration. If you can get a hand on the ball to pop it out to the three point line, you can get a hand on it to rebound it and guarantee the possession change.

[Paydro70]

Fats:
He did carry the reputation, and guys who block shots tend to get more credit than they're necessarily due. However, following his third season, I think it would have been quite reasonable to think he was an elite post defender. The fact that he fell off so hard bears some explaining... or maybe that one year was just something of a fluke, and we paid for an above-average defender and rebounder with a limited offensive game.

[W_HAMILTON]

Whether he is an "elite" defender, or a "very good" defender, or an "above average" defender, is all just a semantics argument.

He is a damn good defender. It's hard to be a "lock down defender" while at the same time anchoring your team's defense, and there aren't many players out there like that today, so I don't see why that would be disappointing if Okafor isn't able to accomplish something like that either. Even the best lockdown defenders rarely stop the superstar caliber players each time they face them, so I don't see what the problem there is, either.

And we've already been through this money discussion, back when we first re-signed Wallace; the market isn't decided from the top down, it goes from the bottom, up. Considering what Okafor brings to the table, his contract is in line with what he provides. If it's true that we have an early termination clause for his final year, that means the most we might pay him in any one season is about 13.5m; as it stands right now, we are paying him 9.5m, increasing 1m/year until we reach that total. That is not a huge amount for someone that has averaged a double-double for his entire career, and I think if I remember TNT correctly, one of only four players that has averaged a double-double in each of the past four seasons. That's pretty damn impressive.

You and others talk down about his accomplishments, but there are a lot of crappy big men in this league, playing alongside other crappy big men. Why aren't they putting up big numbers? Why aren't they averaging double-doubles, and among the league leaders in rebounds and blocks each season? If it's so easy to do, why aren't more people doing it?

Because they can't stay out of foul trouble?

(1) That's an insanely stupid excuse.
(2) Do you really think that if a player doesn't have the know-how to play the game without constantly getting into foul trouble, he's good enough or smart enough to do all of these things that Okafor does every night? Okafor has been in the top 10 in rpg since his rookie year; so, why aren't these great players bumping him off that list? It's been over four seasons. You mean to tell me that in four seasons, they can't learn how to stop fouling? And some of you say Okafor hasn't shown any improvement...

Who cares about per-48 anyway? You know who was the leader in per-48 scoring last year? Ian Mahinmi. I don't know who he is, and neither do you. You know who was 2nd? James. No, not that James. Jerome James.

Per-48 means nothing, and if any of those guys could do what Okafor has done, they'd be doing it because their coaches would be playing them. And I don't know many players that average six fouls/game; wouldn't it stand to reason, that if all these guys can produce at a level of one of the better big men in the league, their coaches would play them until they fouled out?

[Paydro70]

Hamilton... that post was pretty vague, who are "these guys" who are or are not producing big numbers? There are quite a few guys who manage numbers similar to Emeka... Chandler, Duncan, Yao, Camby, Kaman, Biedrins, Howard, Dalembert, Jefferson, Al Horford, Brad Miller, Andrew Bogut... they all get 9.5+ rebounds, 10+ points, and most get over 1.5bpg.

One point I do understand is your response to Fats, who mentions that there are players who rebound better than Emeka per-48. First, I don't think Fats is referring to guys like Jerome James or Shavlik Randolph; those guys who played less than 20 games don't really matter. It's really more like Andris Biedrins, who was a better rebounder last year but it came at the cost of high fouls. Second, he exaggerated a bit, Emeka was 25th in rebounds per 48 and 32nd in rebound rate. If you include only guys who played substantive minutes, Emeka stays in the top 10 of both.

So... I'd say there's no doubt that Emeka is a very good rebounder (or "elite," of course that really is just semantics, I'd say he's elite since he's top 20 by any measure), but what is in dispute here is how good he is at man defense. To me it's not just semantics... if Emeka is an above-average defender, we may have overpaid him. If he's an elite defender struggling with some new coaching, we got a good deal. Even more importantly, maybe he just needs a semi-competent wingman and he'll be a true lockdown big.