A Statistical Analysis of the New Players
Posted: Fri Dec 12, 2008 3:50 am
Well, as resident board robot, I felt it was my duty to break this one down in every painful detail. This is not going to be a pretty picture, so if you are squeamish, I would look away.
Player #1: Boris Diaw
Offense
Diaw used about 16% of the Suns' possessions through his time there, including one peak year of 17.5%. This is a fairly low number; for comparison's sake, his offensive "load" is about equivalent to Matt Carroll's when he's on the court. Not a total drifter like a Tyson Chandler, but not exactly Chris Paul either.
Diaw distributes his possessions unusually: about 15-20% turnovers, about 20% assists, and therefore 60+% shooting. His turnover rate is exceptionally bad, this year ranking him in the top 40 of turnover rate (out of 319), #11 among PFs. That said, he is 3rd in the league in assist rate among PFs, and many of his turnovers are of the "bad pass" variety.
Diaw is, typically, an efficient scorer. He is a .500 shooter on his career, .567 this season, and while he is not exactly a "shooter," he does well from the free throw line for a power forward (usually about 70%). As a result, his TS% of .600 this season ranks him 9th among power forwards. Typically he's more like a .570 TS% guy, but that would still be top-20 for this season.
Diaw shoots about 43% jump shots, on which he is a terrible .375 on 2pters (a good number from 3, but he takes very few of them). In close, however, he shoots 6th best in the NBA. He has four dunks on the season, and is fouled on an incredibly tiny 6% of his shots.
Unfortunately, Diaw is an unambiguously poor rebounder. Currently ranking 66th out of 71 PFs, Diaw's 9.5% rebound rate is actually an improvement over the previous two seasons. Back in his "good" year, he was a 10.8% rebounder, which would put him all the way up to .... #59, just ahead of Al Harrington and behind Walter Herrmann. A quick list of guards currently out-rebounding Diaw: Morris Peterson, Mike Miller, Andre Iguodala, Jason Kidd, Corey Brewer, Paul Pierce... and JR Smith and Chris Paul are roughly equal. His incompetence is roughly equal on the offensive and defensive glass.
Put together, Diaw's penchant for turnovers, small role in the offense, and poor rebounding combine to make him a 13.4 PER player, which again is higher than his previous two seasons. That currently puts him at 48th among PFs, just behind Yi Jianlian and Joe Smith, just ahead of Solomon Jones.
In terms of +/-, he hurts the Suns on offense by 1 point per 100 possessions, which is unsurprising since he is often on the court when Amare Stoudemire is not. Adjusted +/- numbers, however, also rank Diaw quite low, with guys like Ricky Davis, Martell Webster, and Raja Bell (we'll get to that one).
Defense
The signs suggest that Diaw is at least an okay defensive player. In addition to anecdotal incidents like guarding Tony Parker in the playoffs, Diaw helps the Suns' defense to the tune of 3.9 points per 100 possessions. This was also true last year, though two years ago (when he was being compared to Shawn Marion) it was not the case. Adjusted +/- numbers likewise rank Diaw highly (36th in the NBA), slightly ahead of guys like Shane Battier and Dwight Howard. His DRTG, usually around 109, and Defensive Win Shares are not very good, but he may be dragged down by his deficient teammates in these areas.
Statistically, Diaw has offered roughly the same amount of blocks and steals for the past 3 seasons, ranking about 35th among PFs in both categories per/48. In blocks that puts him equal to some small forwardy guys like Marvin Williams and Rashard Lewis with about .8 per 48 minutes. In steals, he gets .5 per 48, putting him with guys like Darko and, again, Hakim Warrick. He is not especially foul prone.
A quick note: Diaw set career highs in virtually everything in that magical year of 05-06: assist rate, usage rate, rebound rate, turnover rate (meaning fewer TOs), ORTG, DRTG, Win Shares, minutes, points, steals, blocks, and PER. He was that season a 17.5 PER player, which puts him around #19 among PFs, roughly equal with guys like Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell. THAT guy is pretty good... but I want to emphasize that he has gone unseen for three years.
Player #2: Raja Bell
Offense
Raja Bell once used about 17% of the Suns' possessions, but has subsequently dropped to only 14% in the last two seasons. He is currently 5th-lowest among shooting guards with guys like Quinton Ross and Devean George.
He gets assists on 12.5% of his possessions, and another 7.5% are turnovers. The latter is very low, 11th of 73. The former is middle of the road.
Bell does tend to make the shots he takes; he's a 43% shooter, but since over half of them are 3s, on which he's truly fantastic, his eFG% is a respectable 55%. He almost never gets to the FT line, though he's not so great at FTs for such a good shooter.... meaning his TS% is 56.9%. Still, that makes him #15 among shooting guards.
Bell is, of course, exclusively a jump shooter, taking an amazingly low 9% inside shots, which he doesn't do such a great job on anyway.
Bell is 49th among 73 SGs in rebound rate, nothing to write home about.... thanks to that and his basically non-existent offensive game, Bell earns a pitiful 9.2 PER, 57th of 73 SGs, which is below replacement-level.
However, he does offer the Suns an incredible 6.6 points per 100 possessions on offense. In large part this is a reflection of how badly Goran Dragic hurts the team, but he has also out-performed Barbosa in +/- for two years. I might pin that on Barbosa's tendency to play without Steve Nash, however. In adjusted +/-, Bell is below-average on offense, with the Ricky Davises and Gordon Giriceks of the world.
Defense
As we all know, Bell has a reputation as an excellent defender. The evidence is a little mixed. His DRTGs have never been very good, but I again think that might be an artifact of the Suns. However, this year he's actually hurting the Suns defense a little: 0.2 pts/100 possessions. Considering he's up against Dragic and Barbosa, it certainly doesn't bode well. Last year, however, he was a positive, backed up by his adjusted +/- for that year, which is quite good, even better than Diaw's.
As far as steals, he's really quite poor, only registering 34th of 42 qualified SGs with 0.59 per 48, and his fouls are neither particularly low or high (17th of 44).
So... it's hard to say right now how good of a defender Bell is this season, but there seems to be a conventional narrative now that he has markedly declined on that side of the ball.
Player #1: Boris Diaw
Offense
Diaw used about 16% of the Suns' possessions through his time there, including one peak year of 17.5%. This is a fairly low number; for comparison's sake, his offensive "load" is about equivalent to Matt Carroll's when he's on the court. Not a total drifter like a Tyson Chandler, but not exactly Chris Paul either.
Diaw distributes his possessions unusually: about 15-20% turnovers, about 20% assists, and therefore 60+% shooting. His turnover rate is exceptionally bad, this year ranking him in the top 40 of turnover rate (out of 319), #11 among PFs. That said, he is 3rd in the league in assist rate among PFs, and many of his turnovers are of the "bad pass" variety.
Diaw is, typically, an efficient scorer. He is a .500 shooter on his career, .567 this season, and while he is not exactly a "shooter," he does well from the free throw line for a power forward (usually about 70%). As a result, his TS% of .600 this season ranks him 9th among power forwards. Typically he's more like a .570 TS% guy, but that would still be top-20 for this season.
Diaw shoots about 43% jump shots, on which he is a terrible .375 on 2pters (a good number from 3, but he takes very few of them). In close, however, he shoots 6th best in the NBA. He has four dunks on the season, and is fouled on an incredibly tiny 6% of his shots.
Unfortunately, Diaw is an unambiguously poor rebounder. Currently ranking 66th out of 71 PFs, Diaw's 9.5% rebound rate is actually an improvement over the previous two seasons. Back in his "good" year, he was a 10.8% rebounder, which would put him all the way up to .... #59, just ahead of Al Harrington and behind Walter Herrmann. A quick list of guards currently out-rebounding Diaw: Morris Peterson, Mike Miller, Andre Iguodala, Jason Kidd, Corey Brewer, Paul Pierce... and JR Smith and Chris Paul are roughly equal. His incompetence is roughly equal on the offensive and defensive glass.
Put together, Diaw's penchant for turnovers, small role in the offense, and poor rebounding combine to make him a 13.4 PER player, which again is higher than his previous two seasons. That currently puts him at 48th among PFs, just behind Yi Jianlian and Joe Smith, just ahead of Solomon Jones.
In terms of +/-, he hurts the Suns on offense by 1 point per 100 possessions, which is unsurprising since he is often on the court when Amare Stoudemire is not. Adjusted +/- numbers, however, also rank Diaw quite low, with guys like Ricky Davis, Martell Webster, and Raja Bell (we'll get to that one).
Defense
The signs suggest that Diaw is at least an okay defensive player. In addition to anecdotal incidents like guarding Tony Parker in the playoffs, Diaw helps the Suns' defense to the tune of 3.9 points per 100 possessions. This was also true last year, though two years ago (when he was being compared to Shawn Marion) it was not the case. Adjusted +/- numbers likewise rank Diaw highly (36th in the NBA), slightly ahead of guys like Shane Battier and Dwight Howard. His DRTG, usually around 109, and Defensive Win Shares are not very good, but he may be dragged down by his deficient teammates in these areas.
Statistically, Diaw has offered roughly the same amount of blocks and steals for the past 3 seasons, ranking about 35th among PFs in both categories per/48. In blocks that puts him equal to some small forwardy guys like Marvin Williams and Rashard Lewis with about .8 per 48 minutes. In steals, he gets .5 per 48, putting him with guys like Darko and, again, Hakim Warrick. He is not especially foul prone.
A quick note: Diaw set career highs in virtually everything in that magical year of 05-06: assist rate, usage rate, rebound rate, turnover rate (meaning fewer TOs), ORTG, DRTG, Win Shares, minutes, points, steals, blocks, and PER. He was that season a 17.5 PER player, which puts him around #19 among PFs, roughly equal with guys like Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell. THAT guy is pretty good... but I want to emphasize that he has gone unseen for three years.
Player #2: Raja Bell
Offense
Raja Bell once used about 17% of the Suns' possessions, but has subsequently dropped to only 14% in the last two seasons. He is currently 5th-lowest among shooting guards with guys like Quinton Ross and Devean George.
He gets assists on 12.5% of his possessions, and another 7.5% are turnovers. The latter is very low, 11th of 73. The former is middle of the road.
Bell does tend to make the shots he takes; he's a 43% shooter, but since over half of them are 3s, on which he's truly fantastic, his eFG% is a respectable 55%. He almost never gets to the FT line, though he's not so great at FTs for such a good shooter.... meaning his TS% is 56.9%. Still, that makes him #15 among shooting guards.
Bell is, of course, exclusively a jump shooter, taking an amazingly low 9% inside shots, which he doesn't do such a great job on anyway.
Bell is 49th among 73 SGs in rebound rate, nothing to write home about.... thanks to that and his basically non-existent offensive game, Bell earns a pitiful 9.2 PER, 57th of 73 SGs, which is below replacement-level.
However, he does offer the Suns an incredible 6.6 points per 100 possessions on offense. In large part this is a reflection of how badly Goran Dragic hurts the team, but he has also out-performed Barbosa in +/- for two years. I might pin that on Barbosa's tendency to play without Steve Nash, however. In adjusted +/-, Bell is below-average on offense, with the Ricky Davises and Gordon Giriceks of the world.
Defense
As we all know, Bell has a reputation as an excellent defender. The evidence is a little mixed. His DRTGs have never been very good, but I again think that might be an artifact of the Suns. However, this year he's actually hurting the Suns defense a little: 0.2 pts/100 possessions. Considering he's up against Dragic and Barbosa, it certainly doesn't bode well. Last year, however, he was a positive, backed up by his adjusted +/- for that year, which is quite good, even better than Diaw's.
As far as steals, he's really quite poor, only registering 34th of 42 qualified SGs with 0.59 per 48, and his fouls are neither particularly low or high (17th of 44).
So... it's hard to say right now how good of a defender Bell is this season, but there seems to be a conventional narrative now that he has markedly declined on that side of the ball.