Stat of the Day: Ultimate PG comparison

[BigSlam]

Edit: New post added below with DJ included.

[bobcatters]

Brilliant work. Discussing Felton in this light should be interesting. It certainly supports my longstanding opinion on Felton.

Does anyone here still argue that Felton is as good as Paul but is a victim of circumstance? Felton not getting the opportunity Paul got to shine. I know this was a popular position a few years back. It always made my brain hurt. Rich was definitely in this camp. I imagine this argument is passe.

I wish Augustine was included in the above work.

[CatNation]

While I'm in the "Felton Sucks" group, it isn't totally fair because he plays practically equal time at SG it seems like. What you can't argue though is that he can't f'in shoot.

Anyway, trade Felton ASAP. Hughes wouldn't be bad, he can't shoot that well either though. I dunno

[BigSlam]

As per Catters request, I went back to supersub15 and asked if he wouldn't mind adjusting his numbers by ading DJ into the mix - which he happily did for us.

Thanks again so much supersub15 for creating the data and allowing me to share it with our board.


I've compiled some comparative stats for all starting PGs in the league. Here's the breakdown.

Jump-shooters vs. rim-attackers:

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Player JUMP% INSIDE%
Rajon Rondo 40.0 60.0
Russell Westbrook 51.0 49.0
Rodney Stuckey 53.0 47.0
Andre Miller 56.0 44.0
Derrick Rose 58.0 42.0
Chris Duhon 63.0 37.0
Devin Harris 64.0 36.0
Tony Parker 64.0 36.0
T.J. Ford 65.0 35.0
Beno Udrih 65.0 35.0
Raymond Felton 67.0 33.0
Mike Conley 68.0 32.0
Randy Foye 69.0 31.0
Deron Williams 69.0 31.0
Baron Davis 71.0 29.0
Chris Paul 71.0 29.0
D.J. Augustin 73.0 27.0
C.J. Watson 74.0 26.0
Mario Chalmers 74.0 26.0
Rafer Alston 75.0 25.0
Mike James 75.0 25.0
Jameer Nelson 76.0 24.0
Jason Kidd 82.0 18.0
Mo Williams 84.0 16.0
Chauncey Billups 84.0 16.0
Jose Calderon 85.0 15.0
Steve Nash 85.0 15.0
Derek Fisher 86.0 14.0
Luke Ridnour 89.0 11.0
Steve Blake 92.0 8.0
Mike Bibby 93.0 7.0

Obviously, Rondo can't shoot and so is forced to drive time and again. I think a good mixture is the Devin Harris and Tony Parker mix of 65% to 35%, but if your jumpshot is very good, then it doesn't really matter, as evidenced by Jameer Nelson, Chauncey Billups and Jose Calderon at the bottom of the list.

Now, the above numbers don't mean much without looking at the conversion rate of their attempts. TS% (True Shooting Percentage) allows to see who are the most efficient shooters from all distances (FGA, 3FGA, FTA).

Most efficient shooters:

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Player TS%
Jose Calderon 63.1
Jameer Nelson 61.6
Steve Nash 61.1
Chris Paul 60.9
Devin Harris 59.0
Chauncey Billups 58.9
Steve Blake 58.7
Mike Bibby 58.5
Mo Williams 58.4
Chris Duhon 58.0
Rajon Rondo 56.5
Mario Chalmers 56.5
Derek Fisher 56.2
Tony Parker 55.7
C.J. Watson 55.7
Rodney Stuckey 53.6
D.J. Augustin 55.5
Deron Williams 53.4
T.J. Ford 52.8
Derrick Rose 52.7
Andre Miller 51.9
Luke Ridnour 51.3
Mike Conley 51.0
Randy Foye 49.6
Beno Udrih 49.2
Russell Westbrook 49.0
Jason Kidd 48.9
Rafer Alston 48.3
Mike James 47.4
Raymond Felton 46.1
Baron Davis 45.5

It's good to know however who are the usage of each of these players to figure out who helps his team with his shooting and who is killing his team with his inefficiency:

Usage Rate:

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Player USG%
Tony Parker 32.3
Devin Harris 28.4
Baron Davis 26.1
Russell Westbrook 25.7
Chris Paul 24.7
Rodney Stuckey 23.3
Deron Williams 23.3
Mo Williams 22.8
Derrick Rose 22.7
Jameer Nelson 22.6
Steve Nash 21.9
Randy Foye 21.8
D.J. Augustin 21.7
Mike James 21.7
T.J. Ford 21.6
Raymond Felton 21.6
Chauncey Billups 21.5
Mike Bibby 20.8
Andre Miller 20.8
Beno Udrih 19.9
Rafer Alston 18.9
Jason Kidd 18.1
Luke Ridnour 18.1
Rajon Rondo 17.9
Steve Blake 17.7
Jose Calderon 16.7
Mike Conley 16.4
C.J. Watson 16.3
Derek Fisher 16.2
Mario Chalmers 16.0
Chris Duhon 14.3


Baron Davis is obviously using too many possessions and when you combine with his putrid TS%, then he's sinking his team. Calderon on the other hand is not helping his team when he should. He leads all PGs with his TS%, but uses only 16.7% of his team's possessions. That's too passive. He should be among the team's leaders in shot attempts, probably ahead of Bosh, due to his incredible efficiency.

Well, if you're not shooting, you should be doing something else on the court, like assists and defensive rebounding:

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Player AST%
Chris Paul 56.5
Deron Williams 44.8
Jose Calderon 41.0
Tony Parker 40.8
Steve Nash 39.0
Baron Davis 38.5
Rajon Rondo 38.4
Devin Harris 32.7
Chauncey Billups 31.7
Rodney Stuckey 31.5
Chris Duhon 30.9
Jameer Nelson 30.7
Andre Miller 30.1
Luke Ridnour 29.5
Raymond Felton 29.4
Derrick Rose 27.8
Mike Bibby 26.9
Beno Udrih 26.3
D.J. Augustin 26.2
Russell Westbrook 26.0
T.J. Ford 25.8
Steve Blake 23.9
Randy Foye 23.8
Rafer Alston 23.5
Mario Chalmers 22.3
Mo Williams 21.3
Mike Conley 20.9
Mike James 20.5
Derek Fisher 16.6
Jason Kidd 15.0
C.J. Watson 14.1

Calderon is top 3 in that regard, as 41% of his possessions end up with an assist. Chris Paul detroys everybody in this category.

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Player DRB%
Chris Paul 14.5
Jason Kidd 14.3
Rajon Rondo 13.3
Mike Conley 13.1
T.J. Ford 12.1
Luke Ridnour 11.7
Mike Bibby 10.4
Jose Calderon 10.2
Raymond Felton 10.0
Rodney Stuckey 9.8
C.J. Watson 9.8
Tony Parker 9.4
Steve Nash 9.3
Mario Chalmers 9.0
Devin Harris 8.8
Chris Duhon 8.7
Mike James 8.7
Deron Williams 8.6
Rafer Alston 8.5
Baron Davis 8.4
Derrick Rose 8.4
Beno Udrih 8.4
Steve Blake 8.4
Andre Miller 8.3
Derek Fisher 7.8
Russell Westbrook 7.7
Chauncey Billups 7.0
D.J. Augustin 6.8
Jameer Nelson 6.2
Mo Williams 6.1
Randy Foye 6.0

Again, Calderon is doing his part on the defensive glass with a good Defensive Rebounding rating. It's amazing though that Chris Paul, probably one of the shortest guys on th ecourt, leads all PGs in this category.

Who takes care of the ball the most? PPR (Pure Point Rating) is a stat that replaces Ast/TO and is a better indicator of the best PGs at taking care of the ball. Anything at 10 and above is considered exceptional:

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Player PPR
Chris Paul 12.5
Jose Calderon 10.6
Jason Kidd 8.7
Rajon Rondo 8.5
Chauncey Billups 8.1
Deron Williams 7.9
Baron Davis 7.6
Chris Duhon 6.7
Andre Miller 5.7
Tony Parker 5.6
Mike Bibby 5.6
Devin Harris 5.3
Steve Nash 5.3
Rafer Alston 5.0
Rodney Stuckey 4.9
Steve Blake 4.9
Derek Fisher 4.5
Jameer Nelson 4.4
Mike Conley 4.4
Raymond Felton 4.2
Luke Ridnour 4.2
T.J. Ford 4.0
Derrick Rose 3.4
D.J. Augustin 3.2
Randy Foye 3.0
Mario Chalmers 2.7
Beno Udrih 1.8
C.J. Watson 1.8
Mo Williams 1.7
Russell Westbrook -0.3
Mike James -0.9


What can I say, Chris Paul is amazing. Calderon is not too shabby either.

Now, for the final and best stat in my opinion: Net PER. This is basically what each PG produces from the PG position for 48 minutes, and what he allows to the opponent PG in 48 minutes. This is not an extrapolation. These 48 minutes are actual played minutes.

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Player PER48 OPP PER48 NET PER
Chris Paul 33.5 18.7 14.8
Tony Parker 26.2 16.5 9.7
Devin Harris 28.0 18.8 9.2
Chauncey Billups 22.7 14.5 8.2
Jameer Nelson 22.8 16.1 6.7
Rajon Rondo 21.9 17.4 4.5
Mike Bibby 21.1 16.9 4.2
Jose Calderon 20.8 16.6 4.2
Derrick Rose 18.0 13.8 4.2
Russell Westbrook 17.7 13.8 3.9
D.J. Augustin 15.6 13.3 2.4
Steve Nash 19.8 17.9 1.9
Steve Blake 17.8 16.0 1.8
T.J. Ford 17.7 15.9 1.8
Mario Chalmers 15.1 13.3 1.8
Deron Williams 18.5 17.4 1.1
Baron Davis 17.7 16.7 1.0
C.J. Watson 15.3 14.3 1.0
Andre Miller 18.7 18.6 0.1
Mo Williams 21.1 21.7 -0.6
Derek Fisher 18.4 19.8 -1.4
Rodney Stuckey 19.7 21.2 -1.5
Beno Udrih 14.8 16.3 -1.5
Mike James 14.7 16.3 -1.6
Jason Kidd 19.7 21.4 -1.7
Rafer Alston 14.6 16.7 -2.1
Mike Conley 13.7 16.3 -2.6
Luke Ridnour 15.1 18.4 -3.3
Chris Duhon 14.6 18.6 -4.0
Raymond Felton 13.0 18.0 -5.0
Randy Foye 11.3 19.5 -8.2


Obviously, positive production is good. Positive production over 10 is just out of this world.

I can safely say that Chris Paul is the best PG in the world. The rest is up for debate.

Debate is now open...

[Dexmor]

Chris Paul is the best pg and that won't change for a while. He is Isiah Thomas of this era. Hall of famer for sure and nobody better at the position. Bucks, Hawks, Jazz are idiots.

I have officially joined the Felton sucks club which I never thought I would because my alltime favorite college players are

1.Marcus Camby
2.Raymond Felton
3.Sean May
4.James Forrest
5.Jerry Stackhouse
6.Rasheed Wallace

The only players I actually like in the nba out of that group is Camby and Stack. I ended up hating Wallace to but more because he could have been a top 10 player instead of top 65 or whatever he is.

[bobcatters]

Augustin's numbers are obviously in the infancy and grand conclusions should not be drawn other than to say Bobcat fans should be excited about the potential.

These numbers support the idea of moving Felton for whatever is available and letting Augustin run the point.

[Dexmor]

Pg's sometimes stuggle as rookies. When your playing pretty damm well as a pg and you can obviously be doing better if started and can start and do a much better job then the starter is doing your potential is awesome. 13 points off the bench with whatever assists (any other team would be higher dimes) is great.
If the draft were to be redone DJ would be around

1.Rose
1.Mayo-could have gone either way
3.Beasley-hasn't earned it yet but still we know he will be there
4.DJ
4.Lopez-still not sure who will be better
4.Westbrook-I must look really indisisive by having a 3 way tie along with a tie a the top but even though Westbrook is playing better now he actually has guys to pass to and is starting but if DJ was starting and healthy he could be better, Westbrook's size makes it a tough call. Him being the most athletic pg doesn't hurt either.

So to sum up DJ should have been a top 6 pick which means we finally got one right.
Next year as a starter I project 18 and 8 or if we get a really good scorer 16 and 8. Also unlike Mek, Diaw and Wallace he is a second best player on a team and not an ideal 3rd.

[Felton for Pres]

Let's save the re-draft for the end of the year. There is a thing called the rookie wall to fight thru before we should start re-thinking the draft.

This was very well put together. Well laid out and each conclusion per stat (with perhaps the exception of the Net PER) explained impartially and effectively (sans the Chris Paul worship, but we all worship him for good reason).

Nice job Slam. Very interesting. Does the Hall of Fame only include comical posts? If not, this gets my vote.

[Rich4114]

Someone should calculate Felton's numbers while DJ is not on the floor with him (which means he's playing SG). He hasn't played a season of PG yet other than starting the 1st and 3rd quarters most of the time.

[bobcatters]

Someone should calculate Felton's numbers while DJ is not on the floor with him (which means he's playing SG). He hasn't played a season of PG yet other than starting the 1st and 3rd quarters most of the time.

Do you watch games? They are about 40/60 in handling the PG duties when both are on the court with Felton being the former. Does this response mean that you still believe that Felton is a victim of circumstance and is in fact in Paul's league?

Are 2.25 NBA coaches in cahoots to prevent him from being a star?

[Rich4114]

Someone should calculate Felton's numbers while DJ is not on the floor with him (which means he's playing SG). He hasn't played a season of PG yet other than starting the 1st and 3rd quarters most of the time.

Do you watch games? They are about 40/60 in handling the PG duties when both are on the court with Felton being the former. Does this response mean that you still believe that Felton is a victim of circumstance and is in fact in Paul's league?

Are 2.25 NBA coaches in cahoots to prevent him from being a star?

No, I was just wondering if there was a way to see more accurate stats... have you been reading any of my posts the past 3 months? Relax catters, you saw what happened to Hamilton.

[bobcatters]

Someone should calculate Felton's numbers while DJ is not on the floor with him (which means he's playing SG). He hasn't played a season of PG yet other than starting the 1st and 3rd quarters most of the time.

Do you watch games? They are about 40/60 in handling the PG duties when both are on the court with Felton being the former. Does this response mean that you still believe that Felton is a victim of circumstance and is in fact in Paul's league?

Are 2.25 NBA coaches in cahoots to prevent him from being a star?

No, I was just wondering if there was a way to see more accurate stats... have you been reading any of my posts the past 3 months? Relax catters, you saw what happened to Hamilton.

I saw nothing. I have taken some time out of work these past two weeks for the first time in a while and have taken the chance to catch up with my old friends here.

Do catch me up in how the Knight/Felton debate turns.

[Rich4114]

My stance is Felton sucks at shooting and finishing at the rim, but he's good at everything else. DJ looks very promising with tons of potential but I'm not getting my hopes up yet.

Knight still sucks.

[bobcatters]

My stance is Felton sucks at shooting and finishing at the rim, but he's good at everything else. DJ looks very promising with tons of potential but I'm not getting my hopes up yet.

Knight still sucks.

I agree with that. With the caveat that Felton's greatest liability is that he does not recognize his weaknesses and forces shots that he should not. His on the ball defense is pretty solid, his help defense is non-existent and that is probably reflected in his steal numbers. Overall, he has a place in the NBA, just not sure what role would best suit him. He is not a good enough shooter to keep playing minutes at the 2 and he does not run an NBA offense well enough for any coach that has had him to give him the keys to the car.

[Rich4114]

My stance is Felton sucks at shooting and finishing at the rim, but he's good at everything else. DJ looks very promising with tons of potential but I'm not getting my hopes up yet.

Knight still sucks.

I agree with that. With the caveat that Felton's greatest liability is that he does not recognize his weaknesses and forces shots that he should not. His on the ball defense is pretty solid, his help defense is non-existent and that is probably reflected in his steal numbers. Overall, he has a place in the NBA, just not sure what role would best suit him. He is not a good enough shooter to keep playing minutes at the 2 and he does not run an NBA offense well enough for any coach that has had him to give him the keys to the car.

I think on a team with some playmakers Felton could do well, I do think he can run an NBA team at PG also. At least with his problem being shooting that could maybe be improved - look at Wallace now compared to how he was in 04'.

I doubt Felton sticks on this team, it looks like they picked DJ up from the start with plans of replacing Felton and I'm sure he knows that.

If you're a bad shooter, and you're only 6'1", then you've got no business being a SG. If he could become a good shooter, then fine. There's certain shots where he's money and others that look horrible (like when he rushes them). He'll either be a rejuvenated PG on a team like the Warriors where he'll thrive in the fast paced high tempo style or he'll end up being a David Wesley type of SG.

One thing you can bet your ass on is that when you're as bad as we are, nobody is safe from being traded. That includes Wallace, Okafor, DJ, Felton, etc. Okafor would probably be the least likely because he's a big and of his BYC but maybe what this team needs is a COMPLETE shakeup. Like what Boston did to land those stars - they dealt every young promising guy and pick for the big time players whose time ran out where they were previously playing.

[SamBone]

Chris Paul is the best pg and that won't change for a while. He is Isiah Thomas of this era. Hall of famer for sure and nobody better at the position. Bucks, Hawks, Jazz are idiots.

I have officially joined the Felton sucks club which I never thought I would because my alltime favorite college players are

1.Marcus Camby
2.Raymond Felton
3.Sean May
4.James Forrest
5.Jerry Stackhouse
6.Rasheed Wallace

The only players I actually like in the nba out of that group is Camby and Stack. I ended up hating Wallace to but more because he could have been a top 10 player instead of top 65 or whatever he is.

How and why is Camby #1? Doesn't make sense considering the others on your list

[bobcatters]

One thing you can bet your ass on is that when you're as bad as we are, nobody is safe from being traded.

You nailed it.

[Paydro70]

Felton at PG:
PER - 13.0
OPP. PER - 18.0
NET - -5.0

ORTG - 87.5
DRTG - 93.0
NET - -5.5

PRODUCTION PER 48
PTS - 14.7
REB - 4.1
AST - 9.3
TO - 3.7
BLK - 0.6
eFG% - .423
FTA - 3.0

In conclusion, Ray is shooting slightly better at PG (though still terribly), and gets more assists, but turns the ball over more, gets to the line less, and plays worse defense. The team, and Ray, play much better with Ray at SG and DJ at PG.

[bobcatters]

Felton at PG:
In conclusion, Ray is shooting slightly better at PG (though still terribly), and gets more assists, but turns the ball over more, gets to the line less, and plays worse defense. The team, and Ray, play much better with Ray at SG and DJ at PG.

However, is this conclusion based on Felton playing well at SG or simply addition by subtraction in that he is no longer dominating the ball as the pg?

[Paydro70]

A very good question, but one that's kind of complicated to answer because of how 82games works. Lets look.

Here's the +/- with Felton at PG, meaning no DJ:
87.5 off, 93 def, net -5.5

And with Felton at SG, meaning with DJ:
91.4 off, 92.2 def, net -0.8

Finally, DJ as a whole:
92.3 off, 92.5 def, net -0.2

Now, earlier in the season, the numbers with Felton at SG were actually the best overall, suggesting that playing the two of them together was better than either one alone. With more recent data, however, it seems that the team plays its most efficient offense with DJ at PG and Felton on the bench. The team does play better defense with DJ+Felton than just DJ or just Felton, though this does not make up for the gain on offense.

Another interesting question from here is whether DJ or Felton play better with Carroll or Bell or any other SG. 82games has the answers for us, all in net pts/48:
Augustin+Felton = -0.8
Augustin+Bell = -11.5
Augustin+Carroll = +1.3
Augustin+Brown = -2.0
Augustin+Richardson = -5.0

Felton+Bell = +1.4
Felton+Carroll = -4.4
Felton+Brown = -24.1
Felton+Richardson = -5.7

Note, of course, that particularly in dealing with Brown and Bell, these are small samples. However, it suggests that we should be running more Felton+Bell (I guess for the "defensive stopper" lineup?) or Augustin+Carroll (shooters galore?) rather than Augustin+Felton and certainly Felton+Carroll or Augustin+Bell.