The Amazing Felton FG/3ptFG/eFG % Tracking Thread!

fluffernutter · Post #1 » by **fluffernutter** » Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:43 pm

As of Dec. 13, these values are, so far as I can tell:

FG% = 43.9%
3pt%=40.5%
eFG%=46.5%

Felton's historical numbers are, of course, abysmal. He's a 40% FG shooter and 32% 3pt shooter with a eFG of 43.5%.

Either he's really improved his shooting (which I DO NOT believe despite 1/4 of the season being over), or he's taking smarter/fewer shots (could be), or this is a statistical hiccup (my bet).

I'm gonna keep track. If he keeps it up to the half-season mark. Well, then, maybe I have to reconsider his long-term viability. Good defense + good distributer + 3pt threat + ironman = solid point guard.

But until then, I'll let the numbers tell the story.

e4Nf6 · Post #2 » by **e4Nf6** » Mon Dec 14, 2009 12:58 am

My first thought is that he is shooting less, but his FGA per 36 have only dropped .7 and his total usage is only down about 2%. I think the real reason is Stephen Jackson, Felton isn't expected to create anymore, he can live off the scraps from Jax and Crash. The 3pt% is what really jumps out at you, I never though in a million years that Felts could shoot 40% from three. anyway here are some back-of-the-envelope figures for you.

Felts 3pt% before Jax: .315 (6/19)
Felts 3pt% after Jax: .478 (11/23)

I don't know if it will last though, 3pt shooting can be a volatile thing. Diaw was great last year and now he's terrible.

BeesWax · Post #3 » by **BeesWax** » Mon Dec 14, 2009 5:32 pm

I think it can last. I believe part of his downfall was that he had to shoot with the clock winding down the last few years. He was the only one who could create enough space. Problem was he is not a great shooter on the move. Now if he can let others take those shots then provide a spot up outlet for Crash and Jax his shot will go up. He shot better at Carolina of May kickouts than creating his own three. If he gets his feet set he is a solid shooter.

Post #4 » by **Paydro70** » Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:21 pm

He has never taken that many buzzer-beaters so as to throw off his averages. He's just never been a good shooter.

I doubt very much that Felton shoots better than 35% from 3 and 42% from the field by the end of the season. Those numbers would be pretty nice though.

fluffernutter · Post #5 » by **fluffernutter** » Tue Dec 15, 2009 12:46 pm

Maybe it's just a set shot thing. He sure sucks shooting off the dribble/on the move.

If so, put in the right place (with a decent 2nd creator), he's actually an offensive threat. Imagine that.

But, as always, time will tell.

KeithMoonsLiver · Post #6 » by **KeithMoonsLiver** » Tue Dec 15, 2009 5:11 pm

He's always been a solid player asked to do WAY too much on abysmal teams. Stick him on a good team where he could be the 3rd or 4th option and everyone would be singing his praises.

fluffernutter · Post #7 » by **fluffernutter** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 5:25 pm

December 21.

45% FG. 42.3 3 point %.

BETTER than Dec. 13.

I'm not a believer. But, that's pretty solid so far dude.

thruthefire · Post #8 » by **thruthefire** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 6:24 pm

What if Felton becomes a 50/40/90 guy?

Post #9 » by **Walt Cronkite** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 6:33 pm

I would question everything that I regard as factual.

Post #10 » by **BigSlam** » Mon Dec 21, 2009 6:34 pm

thruthefire wrote:What if Felton becomes a 50/40/90 guy?

points/rebounds/assists per game?

Oh you Felton homers you!!

Rich4114 · Post #11 » by **Rich4114** » Tue Dec 22, 2009 5:16 am

BigSlam wrote:
thruthefire wrote:What if Felton becomes a 50/40/90 guy?

points/rebounds/assists per game?

Oh you Felton homers you!!

I believe I already predicted this in the predictions thread. Go ahead, look it up. His rebounds might be a little down from that though.

Unsung · Post #12 » by **Unsung** » Thu Dec 24, 2009 8:44 am

KeithMoonsLiver wrote:He's always been a solid player asked to do WAY too much on abysmal teams. Stick him on a good team where he could be the 3rd or 4th option and everyone would be singing his praises.

The Lakers are looking to trade for felton.

Fred Williamson · Post #13 » by **Fred Williamson** » Thu Dec 24, 2009 8:51 pm

source?

Post #14 » by **Diop** » Thu Dec 24, 2009 11:16 pm

What could the Lakers trade us?
The only trades I could consider would have to include either Bynam, Odom or Gasol (obviously Kobe) and thats not going to happen. Apart from Artest the rest of the team is pretty much Adam Morrison,err I mean garbage.

fluffernutter · Post #15 » by **fluffernutter** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:34 pm

I think I've figured out the answer.

The Bucks game is a good indicator.

Felton goes 4 of 6, 2/3 for 3 point %.

Taking all the shots are JAX, Mr. Mini Black Hole Flip, and GWall (perfectly acceptable for him, take more in fact).

Felton is only taking really good shots, particularly behind the line.

His assists seem to be relatively lower because of the poor shooting of the chuckers, and probably the system, which does not require the PG to drive/dish or pick-n-roll a lot.

I've always thought Felton should be taking less than 10 shots per game. It looks like he/the system is forcing this. That is probably a big part of the increase in shooting percentages.

He's at 45% FG, and 41% 3pt. on Dec. 29.

Very acceptable.

Keep it up dude. It's about quality shots, not quantity.

(also steals are higher and turnovers lower. Good).

Also worthwhile to note his "clutch" (82games definition) FG% is over 50%! 4th quarter, less than 5 min. etc. That's solid.

Post #16 » by **BigSlam** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 5:54 pm

fluffernutter wrote:Also worthwhile to note his "clutch" (82games definition) FG% is over 50%! 4th quarter, less than 5 min. etc. That's solid.

It sure is solid. Very solid.

The big question will be: How much would you pay for solid?

I know what I would pay.

fluffernutter · Post #17 » by **fluffernutter** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:24 pm

BigSlam wrote:
fluffernutter wrote:Also worthwhile to note his "clutch" (82games definition) FG% is over 50%! 4th quarter, less than 5 min. etc. That's solid.

It sure is solid. Very solid.

The big question will be: How much would you pay for solid?

I know what I would pay.

It's probably worth asking at this point.

Projecting for the year, if Felton comes in at 44% FG and 40% 3pt%, with 8-9 FG attempts per game and relatively good defense/assist/TO numbers...

Damn, that's a tough one.

I really don't know. 6 million per year? 5?

Post #18 » by **BigSlam** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:35 pm

fluffernutter wrote:Damn, that's a tough one.

I really don't know. 6 million per year? 5?

That is about where I put him at.

Look at what a guy like Jack is doing now he is starting in TO. I put him on the same tier as Felts with the same sort of impact on a game/ability/age etc and using him as a yard stick - Jack is on about 5mill per (pretty much flat according to Sham Sports and DX).

I'd be ok with 6mil per year flat every year for 4 years for Felts. Anything over that would make me nervous.

thruthefire · Post #19 » by **thruthefire** » Tue Dec 29, 2009 9:14 pm

And he's averaging 32.6 points per 40 minutes of "clutch" time. That's big time!

On jumpshots, Felton is actually hitting at about the same percentage as he did last season (eFG% of 42 last season; 42.3 this). The big difference in Felton's shooting % rising is his new found ability to finish around the rim (eFG% of 60.6 this season; 47.1 last). The chuckers have definitely lifted some pressure off of him to score, but unfortunately they're not scoring efficiently themselves, especially Flip.

Rich4114 · Post #20 » by **Rich4114** » Wed Dec 30, 2009 5:10 am

haha @ the chuckers.

I think Felton's most valuable asset to this team is how the offense actually looks under control when he has the ball and then on defense. He's might even be our best defender if you ask me, ahead of Wallace or at least just behind him. And I'm talking about overall D not just one on one.

To me, now that DJ sucks.... Felton is actually worth more than he was last summer. He was looking pretty bad early this year too so it's awesome how he's adjusted and become so much more efficient with Jackson here. Now we just need to make sure Jackson and Wallace know to hand the ball over to Felton when it's time to run the offense. I cringe when those two try to initiate things because it tends to result in a turnover or charge.