RealGM

Lissen here folks, this is my theory. Poo-poo it or rah-rah it all you want.

Shot blocking.

Normally, I'm not that big a fan. Kinda overrated. Looks good, is exciting (like a dunk), but eh. Usually blocked into the seats and the other team gets the ball anyway.

A great shot blocker in the middle, however, does more than that: he intimidates and "changes shots." Yeah, a cliche. But somewhat true.

So let's say you have 2 great shot blockers in the paint. I would argue that they are more than 2x as effective as 1, since anyone driving can't possibly think they are gonna avoid both; they have to go through one if not both. That's gonna deter a lot of players.

Now up that count to 3. Or 4. These additional shot-blockers are wing players... you see where this is going.

Is it possible that the net value of a bunch of shot-blocking fools is far more than strict sum of their worth, i.e. it's more like a geometric effect?

No, teams would just know the defense cheats off their assignment alot and you increase foul trouble.

Just because Bobcats look good defensively now doesn't mean they can just replace those pieces with any other shot blockers.

In the end, the value is the same as any defensive built rotation. If you get a bunch of guys with great chemistry to play defense and compliment each other defensively, it doesn't matter if you have shot blockers or players with great defensive fundamentals, the overall value rising because of the defense and not because of any particular skill in how each of those players play defense.

(ex. Tayshaun was good blocker but no one really expected him to block Reggie's lay-up. Just because he blocked it doesn't mean you can afford a non-hustling wing defender to do the same. Lebron might not have chased after it, Kirilenko might not have chased after it, Tyrus Thomas might not have chased after it.

Different scenario, just because Out of Prime Alonzo might have blocked someone's shot doesn't mean Prime Shaq would not have screwed up the block by throwing it into the stands or anywhere else.

There's literally too many elements to factor in: I think Pau and Duncan are great fundamental shot blockers who make their blocks seem easy but I think together their defense doesn't complement each other and it can result in a guy like Marc Gasol having a good night dominating them despite constant double teams. Doesn't mean it's true but then it might be true.

The reality is when you start looking at shot blockers, they're more complicated than the commonly stereotyped slashers, shooters, power dunker, defensive player stereotype. The stereotype of the shot blocker is one big range of players who happen to block shots.

...except blocked shots aren't always coming from the same place and if you really look at it from the player's point of view, blocked shots don't come off as an actual but more of a luck where in their attempt to stop a player in any way resulted in them causing a block. Said block though doesn't mean that if the same drive was done but with a different move, this great shot blocker would perform like his videogame counterpart self and magically block the shot unlike a crossover/dribbling/first step/jump accuracy/taking a charge/defensive position skills... this is the one skill where videogames cheat off of even when trying to become the best simulated bball game ever because there's no way to make shot blocking an actual rating other than "scripting" the block based on probability except by changing the appearance of how a block took place because it's too dynamic and it doesn't have a constant value. (Do you want said player's assignment to sag off and attempt more block or do you want a player who can clog and anchor the defense or do you want an intimidating shot blocker like prime Mutombo and then how would the rest of the rotation's blocking assignment work especially if you have one guy who's tired or doesn't hustle or fails to read the defense?)

Shot blocking doesn't totally combine geometrically, because there are many ways to get blocks. Straight-up blocks like John Wall got on that idiot on Vandy tonight. From-behind LeBron blocks. Across-the-lane Camby blocks. Each involves a different defensive strategy and type of vulnerability against expert offensive play.

There's no doubt that players who are incapable of blocking shots, like Diaw, Boozer, etc., can be a really severe handicap. But pairing or tripling shot blockers suffers from diminishing returns, not a geometric return.

In short, Ty Thomas is a major pickup because Diaw can't block at all... but putting him, Wallace, and a third blocker on the floor isn't going to receive the same improvement as only two of them plus a third who has some different skill.

While we are on the subject of blocks I thought I'd post a link to some of the more amazing blocks in NBA history including the amazing sequence by Manute Bol at the end.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1WG3zkNy3U

I like the fact that we got two good shot blockers in our trades. We finally get back what we were missing when Okafor left, regardless of if we're paying triple the cost or not. lol

Mezotarkus wrote:While we are on the subject of blocks I thought I'd post a link to some of the more amazing blocks in NBA history including the amazing sequence by Manute Bol at the end.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1WG3zkNy3U

I love that Laphonso Ellis block where he manages to keep hold of the ball.

DIsappointed there were no Shawn Bradley blocks, he had some classics, including back to back performances of 10 blocks in a game.