Question for people who watched Jordan play

[scrabbarista]

I watched him play from '91 forward myself, but I'm looking for the opinions of others, especially if you watched him play a ton.

I've always been a little puzzled by MJ's relatively low career 3P% - .327 for his career. He was obviously a great shooter. He shot 84% from the line for his career and is commonly called the GoAT in the midrange. It's weird to me that LeBron James has a better career 3P% (currently .344). LeBron shoots 10 percentage points lower at the free throw line and, over the course of his career, clearly has inferior form/balance/touch relative to MJ. MJ and LBJ actually have the exact same 3P% in the post season = .332. LeBron's attempts went down a little in the post season and Jordan's went up a lot.

So, today I was watching the YouTube video MICHAEL JORDAN: THE LEGEND OF THE GREATEST for the first time, and it struck me how often Jordan made three-point buzzer beaters to end quarters, halves, and games. It got me thinking: what percentage of his shots would have been of this variety? He played in an era when players didn't think about preserving their 3P% like they do these days. And Michael would have been the one to take the last shot more often than not when he was on the floor, which would have been more often than not, as he averaged over 38 minutes per game for his career.

Then I started thinking about total attempts. Jordan only took 1,778 attempts in the regular season for his entire career. He averaged 1.7 attempts per game. James Harden is shooting over 1,000 attempts per season last year and this year. When you space MJ's 1,778 attempts out over 1,072 career regular season games, you really start to think that a bunch of those attempts may have been buzzer-beaters and full-court/half-court shots.

It's obvious to anyone who watched him that MJ would likely have been a very high level three-point shooter if he'd played in an era when it was considered an essential fundamental rather than a niche skill mostly reserved for unathletic guards. But my question isn't about that. It's about how good he actually was even in his own time: what percentage do you think MJ shot from three if you take out his buzzer beaters and half/full court shots? What do you think his percentage was minus these shots? If anyone knows of any studies done on this, please let me know. I did some calculations based purely on conjecture, and I think the effects on his percentage may have been pretty extreme.

EDIT: My original totally blind and baseless estimate was that MJ shot one "low quality attempt" every three games. That's once every 12 quarters, plus the end of shot clocks in between. It seemed reasonable. That would be about 26 per season. Then I assumed that MJ shot 20% on those shots, an extremely high percentage for heaves and desperation shots. (A higher theoretical % on those shots is actually worse for MJ in this case, because it takes away more of the 3's he made.) Then I took out one 3PA every 3 games and also did the calculation to remove the appropriate number of makes. What I found was that, based on those calculations, MJ's career 3P% would jump from .327 to .377. It's possible - probable, really - that I overshot, as I was just poking in the dark. But even if the actual numbers were once every six games instead of once every three, my result shows the extreme effect these shots could have on the percentage of a player taking as few threes as Jordan took. It kind of goes to show the reason why no one shoots those shots anymore - as much as I hate it.

EDIT2: Someone pointed out that in the season that Jordan took his most attempts (not counting the shortened line seasons), he shot .376 from three. Uncanny how close that is to the .377 I came up with.

EDIT3: I think I figured out some of why my memory of Jordan as a shooter from distance is so much better than his career mark of .327: in the '91-'93 playoffs, before the line was shortened, Jordan shot .387 on about 139 attempts in 58 games - and over 42% on 57 attempts in those three Finals. That's probably what I'm most remembering when I remember his prowess from deep range. Also, though I didn't want to bring the shortened line into this, in the '95 and '96 playoffs and regular season combined, he shot .435 on about 379 attempts. That era from '91 to '96 is probably what I'm remembering, and Jordan was cash from the outside for those five seasons - especially in the playoffs.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Separate musing for those who weren't around to watch Jordan play:

James Harden is 30 years old and at his absolute peak. Imagine if he retired at the end of this season to play professional baseball and didn't come back until March 18th, 2022.... Only, instead of winning the last three scoring titles and having won one MVP and no rings, he'd won the last seven scoring titles, three MVP Awards, a DPoY, and the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Finals MVP's.
I think it's still underappreciated how absolutely bonkers it is that Jordan just up and left when he was at the peak of his basketball ability - twice. Jordan had just turned 30 when he retired the first time. He spent two years of his peak playing baseball.
LeBron this season is basically the same age that Jordan was when he retired the second time (1998). How insanely weird would it be if LeBron had retired in 2015, sat out all of 2016 and almost all of 2017 to play a different sport, then came back for 2018, 2019, and 2020, then won the MVP and the Finals MVP this season, then retired at the end of this season, and then came back three years later to play the 2024 and 2025 seasons? Utterly bizarre, right?
I have no dog in the three paragraphs above. You can do with them what you will. My point was simply to point out how totally strange Jordan's career was and how completely strange it would be if anyone else followed a similar path today.

[old skool]

Difficult to compare eras.

Jordan played when 3-point shooting was a smaller part of the game. That impacted his scoring and shot selection, but also impacted the restricted space he had in which to attack the basket.

Big men played a dominant role defending the paint. Combined with officiating that allowed more physical contact, the lack of spacing required a different skill set than is needed today.

Players in Jordan's era needed finesse, but also the ability to withstand hammering and the burst needed to generate speed and momentum in tight quarters.

Finally, in Jordan's era, the NBA was a man's league. Today's NBA is a combo league of men and boys. Every team has teenagers and youth who are still maturing. Every team has players who would have been learning the game at college instead of being fodder for NBA superstars.

Sent from my SM-N960U using RealGM mobile app

[pipfan]

I remember Rose's MVP year he was 1/17 on heaves (he didn't care either, and would let it fly). I'm sure MJ was similar

[SWYM]

Your stats are a testament that if MJ did indeed shoot more 3s, he'd average 40ppg easily.

It was a different era with different rules that pushed specific types of gameplay.

Better ? is who would you prefer to take the last shot in a game? MJ or LBJ?

[Capn'O]

Hard to say but I would bet that if he played today he would pick a season to try to lead the league in 3pt% and likely do it. Just for kicks.

Generally, most of the 3s he took prior to 1991 were likely throw away shots. He took and made so few.

[The_Hater]

Your stats are a testament that if MJ did indeed shoot more 3s, he'd average 40ppg easily.

It was a different era with different rules that pushed specific types of gameplay.

Better ? is who would you prefer to take the last shot in a game? MJ or LBJ?

That’s a pretty simplistic method of choosing which player is better.

But since you went down this road, the best clutch shooter over the past 20 years, based on FG%, has been Carmelo Anthony. So do we take him over Bron, Kobe and Duncan too?

Also, guess which player has hit more playoff buzzer beaters than any other in league history? That would be Lebron james. James also has a better FG% then MJ in the final 10 seconds of regular season games.

People questioning Bron’s clutchness need to do better research.

[scrabbarista]

I remember Rose's MVP year he was 1/17 on heaves (he didn't care either, and would let it fly). I'm sure MJ was similar

This is the kind of thing I was looking for. My original, totally blind and baseless estimate, mentioned in the OP, was that MJ shot one every three games. That would be about 26 per season. Then I assumed that MJ shot 20% on those shots - obviously way higher than the mark Rose shot on heaves. (A higher theoretical % on those shots is actually worse for MJ in this case, because it takes away more of the 3's he made.) Then I took out one 3PA every 3 games and also did the calculation to remove the appropriate number of makes. What I found was that, based on those calculations, MJ's career 3P% would jump from .327 to .377. It's possible I overshot, of course, as I was just poking in the dark. But even if the actual numbers were one attempt every six games instead of one every three, these numbers show the extreme effect they could have on the percentage of a player taking as few three's as Jordan took. It kind of goes to show the reason why no one shoots those shots anymore - as much as I hate it.

[Capn'O]

To follow up, I think looking for a way to remove the heaves is a little misleading. You'd have to remove everyone else's heaves as well but also it misses that many seasons he really wasn't looking for those shots. It deals with too many hypotheticals.

Generally, I think a better tack is to look at seasons where he was shooting more threes. I.e. where the 3 ball was an intentional part of his attack. 89-90 and 92-93 are probably the most representative of a baseline that he could have built on. 37.6% and 35.2% respectively. In both seasons he averaged around 3 takes per game. Also, looking at it this way, you can exclude the seasons where the line was moved in and everyone was taking/making more 3s.

Jordan shot around 36% when he committed to it in those days and likely higher if he adjusted his training to current trends.

[zimpy27]

Make sure to remove the 94-95, 95-96, 96-97 seasons from his data. The 3 point line was 2 feet closer for those seasons.

I'd argue that if you haven't done that then your argument is boned. They were MJs best 3 shooting seasons (besides his random 89-90 year)

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

The 3pt was more of a specialist thing back then. It was frowned on for most of the 80's, it was seen as a bit of a b-move...for a role player. Not really what skilled star players did.

[Wilber85]

I watched him play from '91 forward myself, but I'm looking for the opinions of others, especially if you watched him play a ton.

I've always been a little puzzled by MJ's relatively low career 3P% - .327 for his career. He was obviously a great shooter. He shot 84% from the line for his career and is commonly called the GoAT in the midrange. It's weird to me that LeBron James has a better career 3P% (currently .344). LeBron shoots 10 percentage points lower at the free throw line and, on balance for his career, clearly has inferior form/balance/touch relative to MJ. MJ and LBJ actually have the exact same 3P% in the post season = .332. LeBron's attempts went down a little in the post season and Jordan's went up a lot.

So, today I was watching the YouTube video MICHAEL JORDAN: THE LEGEND OF THE GREATEST for the first time, and it struck me how often Jordan made three-point buzzer beaters to end quarters, halves, and games. It got me thinking: what percentage of his shots would have been of this variety? He played in an era when players didn't think about preserving their 3P% like they do these days. And Michael would have been the one to take the last shot more often than not when he was on the floor, which would have been more often than not, as he averaged over 38 minutes per game for his career.

Then I started thinking about total attempts. Jordan only took 1,778 attempts in the regular season for his entire career. He averaged 1.7 attempts per game. James Harden is shooting over 1,000 attempts per season last year and this year. When you space MJ's 1,778 attempts out over 1,072 career regular season games, you really start to think that a bunch of those attempts may have been buzzer-beaters and full-court/half-court shots.

It's obvious to anyone who watched him that MJ would likely have been a very high level three-point shooter if he'd played in an era when it was considered an essential fundamental rather than a niche skill that was mostly reserved for unathletic guards. But my question isn't about that. It's about how good he actually was even in his own time: what percentage do you think MJ shot from three if you take out his buzzer beaters and half/full court shots? What do you think his percentage was minus these shots? If anyone knows of any studies done on this, please let me know. I did some calculations based purely on conjecture, and I think the effects on his percentage may have been pretty extreme.

EDIT: My original totally blind and baseless estimate was that MJ shot one every three games. That's once every 12 quarters, plus the end of shot clocks in between. It seemed reasonable. That would be about 26 per season. Then I assumed that MJ shot 20% on those shots, an extremely high percentage for heaves and desperation shots. (A higher theoretical % on those shots is actually worse for MJ in this case, because it takes away more of the 3's he made.) Then I took out one 3PA every 3 games and also did the calculation to remove the appropriate number of makes. What I found was that, based on those calculations, MJ's career 3P% would jump from .327 to .377. It's possible - probable, really - that I overshot, as I was just poking in the dark. But even if the actual numbers were once every six games instead of once every three, my result shows the extreme effect these shots could have on the percentage of a player taking as few three's as Jordan took. It kind of goes to show the reason why no one shoots those shots anymore - as much as I hate it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Separate musing for those who weren't around to watch Jordan play:

James Harden is 30 years old and at his absolute peak. Imagine if he retired at the end of this season to play professional baseball and didn't come back until March 18th, 2022.... Only, instead of winning the last three scoring titles and having won one MVP and no rings, he'd won the last seven scoring titles, three MVP Awards, a DPoY, and the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Finals MVP's.
I think it's still underappreciated how absolutely bonkers it is that Jordan just up and left when he was at the peak of his basketball ability - twice. Jordan had just turned 30 when he retired the first time. He spent two years of his peak playing baseball.
LeBron this season is basically the same age that Jordan was when he retired the second time (1998). How insanely weird would it be if LeBron had retired in 2015, sat out all of 2016 and almost all of 2017 to play a different sport, then came back for 2018, 2019, and 2020, then won the MVP and the Finals MVP this season, then retired at the end of this season, and then came back three years later to play the 2024 and 2025 seasons? Utterly bizarre, right?
I have no dog in the three paragraphs above. You can do with them what you will. My point was simply to point out how totally strange Jordan's career was and how completely strange it would be if anyone else followed a similar path today.

In this era of the NBA. We are seeing teams jacking up 3 point shots.

Chicago Bulls 91-92 team total 3 point attempts for 82 games was 454

James Harden through 39 games this year 523 attempts

That right there will tell you the game was more focused on Defense, and Half Court play when Jordan played

[beeshma]

I think the OP makes a great point. It would be interesting if an accurate analysis of 3P% were possible that excluded "last second" heaves and your thought experiment to infer a .377 3P% seems helpful. But the unknown will always be what would happen if Jordan had focused on the three point shot in his practice and mind set. The idea of multiple 40ppg seasons does seem realistic. Amazing!

[fianchetto]

Your stats are a testament that if MJ did indeed shoot more 3s, he'd average 40ppg easily.

It was a different era with different rules that pushed specific types of gameplay.

Better ? is who would you prefer to take the last shot in a game? MJ or LBJ?

That’s a pretty simplistic method of choosing which player is better.

But since you went down this road, the best clutch shooter over the past 20 years, based on FG%, has been Carmelo Anthony. So do we take him over Bron, Kobe and Duncan too?

Also, guess which player has hit more playoff buzzer beaters than any other in league history? That would be Lebron james. James also has a better FG% then MJ in the final 10 seconds of regular season games.

People questioning Bron’s clutchness need to do better research.

yeah that's about as dumbed down an analysis I've heard yet about who's better. Pretty disrespectful to OP who clearly does his homework with topics like this

[mplsfonz23]

I remember Rose's MVP year he was 1/17 on heaves (he didn't care either, and would let it fly). I'm sure MJ was similar

This is simply not true.

MJ never was a chucker like Rose. MJ had a cast around him unlike Rose. Everything MJ did was deliberate, and TBH they were blowing away most of the other teams by the end of the game. MJ was the definition of "clutch."

[Black Jack]

Jordan wasn't a natural savante at shooting like Curry or Harden but he'd have gotten his 3 point & up to 37 ish in this era I think. I don't think he would have gotten to Harden's level in terms of the crazy off the dribble three pointers.

Guys like Jordan who are superathletic don't come into the league with good shots because they didn't need that, ever, until facing NBA defenses.

Regarding his mini retirement,aside from all the gambling stuff, he was absolutely exhausted. I think he needed a little time to rest up after the first threepeat.

[Hoop Hunter]

I've seen a ton of MJ's games from college till retirement. Saw him in person at least 3-4 times a season his entire career. He's the BEST I've ever seen play. Bird and Magic where close. Took awhile for me to admit it, Jordan was the enemy in my eyes back then.

Stats were not talked about that much years ago. The great players just won. The defense, pace, everything was different. Today's stats are obviously inflated.

In the modern game, prime Jordan would destroy. He'd hit as many 3's as Harden, if that's what it took. Jordan was already a great mid range shooter. He would be great 3 pt shooter now, he would make himself become one, guaranteed. He'd shoot more free throws now. You can't touch players these days.

[ATRAIN53]

You realize when MJ was a rookie in 1984

The 3 point line had only been in the NBA for 4 years in 1984.
It really was like a gimmick shot then. Guy didn't practice 100's of them a day like they do now.
Coaches didn't tell guys to chuck 3's. They wanted you attacking the basket and playing physical where Bill LameBeer could hammer you and make you pay while they swatted away your shot.

To MJ the 3 Point play was driving to the rack and getting the foul.
He was also an excellent mid range shooter and

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH THE MID RANGE SHOT

The game has changed since MJ.

But the 1,000,000 dollar question is -

Would MJ still have been MJ in todays game with the 3 point shot?

The answer is YES. The answer to every MJ question is that this guy REFUSED TO LOSE.
He used every advantage he could find to beat you.

If the way to do that was chucking 20 3's a game - he would have.
He probably would have developed into one of the best 3 point shooters in the NBA if that was the way to beat you.
Those later years jump shot MJ when he drove less, he turned into a lethal mid range shooter.

I'm glad the 3 wasn't as popular because his dunks and physical play down low were the best NBA you'll ever see.
He imposed his will on you, he didn't need the 3 point shot.

[Ree4erMadness]

You realize when MJ was a rookie in 1984

The 3 point line had only been in the NBA for 4 years in 1984.
It really was like a gimmick shot then. Guy didn't practice 100's of them a day like they do now.
Coaches didn't tell guys to chuck 3's. They wanted you attacking the basket and playing physical where Bill LameBeer could hammer you and make you pay while they swatted away your shot.

To MJ the 3 Point play was driving to the rack and getting the foul.
He was also an excellent mid range shooter and

THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH THE MID RANGE SHOT

The game has changed since MJ.

But the 1,000,000 dollar question is -

Would MJ still have been MJ in todays game with the 3 point shot?

The answer is YES. The answer to every MJ question is that this guy REFUSED TO LOSE.
He used every advantage he could find to beat you.

If the way to do that was chucking 20 3's a game - he would have.
He probably would have developed into one of the best 3 point shooters in the NBA if that was the way to beat you.
Those later years jump shot MJ when he drove less, he turned into a lethal mid range shooter.

I'm glad the 3 wasn't as popular because his dunks and physical play down low were the best NBA you'll ever see.
He imposed his will on you, he didn't need the 3 point shot.

This is a good point.

[Sultanofatl]

Jordan shot the old school three 2 + the harm. He was a rhythm shooter. When he got going he shot the 3 effortlessly. But, he wasn't a shooter. He sought contact.

[tribulations]

Jordan shot the old school three 2 + the harm. He was a rhythm shooter. When he got going he shot the 3 effortlessly. But, he wasn't a shooter. He sought contact.

MJ's shot was cash. Curious what your definition of shooter is (assuming 3pt specialist type)?

Sent from my SM-G977B using RealGM mobile app