Is TWolves Connelly overrated?

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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#41 » by The Rebel » Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:01 am

nomansland wrote:
Alatan wrote:
nomansland wrote:Every time I read that "he traded Gobert and Mitchell" I want to throw coffee at my computer. So annoying and it ignores the context of those moves.

GM's build organizations. So if he hired good scouts and was part of the drafting process, yes he gets credit for that. The Nuggets are also good at player development. If some of those picks had gone to lesser organizations they might be playing in Israel right now. He also gets credit for that. In those areas I'd say he's among the best in the NBA.

He's not very adept when it comes to trades and salary negotiations though. The Gobert trade is an example of that. And Minnesota probably overpaid him, but that's what small market teams have to do sometimes.

The crazy thing is that they hired one of the best GM's when it comes to drafting and then traded a bunch of their draft picks, essentially playing away from his greatest strengths. Whatever though, I always liked Connelly and wish him well.


He didnt trade Gobert of Mitchell in the usual sense but the argument is very valid. He had the opportunity to pick Gobert and Mitchell for himself and passed it in favor of terrible selections. That proves he his talent evaluation is terrible and his draft successes are mostly luck.

In the 2014 draft he selected Jokic with the 41st pick while having TWO 1st round picks available. He literally passed on Jokic TWICE before selecting him with a throwaway pick. Was he so confident that Jokic would be there all the way in the mid 2nd round if he thought that he had the potential to be what he is today? Or was it just dumb luck? I call the later.


No, it isn't very valid, unless you're going to throw the same shade at the 11 other teams that passed on Mitchell and the other 27 teams that passed on Gobert.

Also remember that in the Mitchell situation, Denver already had Murray. They didn't need another SG and were trying to parlay that pick into OG and Lyles. Where TC screwed up was not just taking OG with the 13th pick. He got a little too cute and it backfired.

Utah took chances on those guys and it paid off for them. They get the credit, but the fact that TC didn't take those guys is not really that grave of an error.


The thing about Gobert is that we were coming off a 57 win season and lost arguably their best player in Gallo to injury heading into the playoffs. There was no way to know that Lawson was going to lose control of his drinking, Gallo's 1st surgery would be botched, and that Wilson Chandler was going to have his hip injury. That team was built for defense and fast breaks, Gobert would have been a terrible fit, maybe they missed that he would be a DPOY defender, but most of the rest of the NBA did as well, I guarantee they were shopping the pick as Connelly had just taken over the front office.

For Mitchell, we not only had Murray, we had pre-injury Harris, Malik Beasley who still had a ton of potential, Mudiay who there was some slight hope for, and were drafting Morris in the 2nd round. Mitchell may never have gotten a chance to show much with all that young talent, if Igoudala had come back like the front office was sure was a done deal.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#42 » by The Rebel » Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:15 am

D1SGRUNTL3D wrote:
The Rebel wrote:As I have long said, Connelly has an argument for the best drafter in the league, he is below average on trades, and bad on free agency. The thing is with draft picks he has always managed to keep the talent level going, but I think he is heading for big trouble in Minny since they traded so many picks.

If any franchise know how unlikely it is to hit on lottery picks it’s the wolves. Once people realize they’re lottery tickets then they’ll come around. Less than 5% of wolves fan think it’s a bad deal because they know how unlikely the draft pick would have the same impact of Rudy gobert.



That's the thing though, Connelly is only really good at drafting and setting up development of young talent.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#43 » by brutalitops » Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:41 am

ITT. You actually draft the guys once you've technically traded the pick, It;s not the other team, I always thought it was obviously your picking for the team which is getting the pick

Why dont you agree to a trade, for say X player, for pick 14, then go ahead and take Royce White for a laugh and the other team has to accept it,
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#44 » by MemphisX » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:00 am

sanima233 wrote:he pushed all his chips in a a twin tower of towns and Gobert...... the risk was clearly not worth the squeez



You have determined that before even seeing it?
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#45 » by The Rebel » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:24 am

Klomp wrote:A lot of people aren't taking into consideration the affect ownership has on GM. Connelly built what he did while being handcuffed by the Kroenkes and their penny-pinching. That's why a number of those "bad moves" happened, because he was told to cut costs in order to avoid the luxury tax.


A lot of those bad moves were created by contracts that Connelly signed. Gobert's pick was because we didn't have roster space for another developmental guy and he was a terrible fit on a young team that had just won 57 games. Trading picks to dump talent, that is on Connelly. he signed Faried to his deal, and then spent the MLE and multiple moves to try to bury him on the bench, then when it was obvious he wasn't in our plans, then he was finally dumped. Faried was shopped for 2 years, they went from insisting on the 2nd overall pick that became Oladipo to having to pay to dump him.

Just last summer Connelly signed Jeff Green, JaMychal Green who opted out for a raise and 2nd year too, Will Barton who he gave a 2 year $30 million dollar deal, gave Michael Porter JR a max deal, and Austin Rivers to the minimum. 2 of those have already had to be salary dumped, a lot of people consider MPJ's deal as one of the worst in the league, and not a single one of them solved the obvious perimeter defensive problem we had the previous year. The worst was that Nnaji his draft pick from 2020 and Cancar another of his 2nd round finds outplayed JaMychal last year before each ended up injured.

IN the playoffs our issue was perimeter defense for the 2nd straight year, our 2nd best perimeter defender by the time the playoffs rolled around was Austin Rivers, that is on Connelly's allocation of funds. Literally the only good contract we moved this summer was Monte Morris, who was replaced by a Connelly draft pick, but Booth turned Morris, 2 bad contracts, and a pick 7 years from now into 4 perimeter defenders for the same money we were already projected to spend.

All teams work on a budget, even the Warriors let role players walk when they get big offers, and no team wants to pay the tax if you can't fix the team's issues. Connelly's 1st contract he ever signed for the Nuggets was a terrible deal for JJ Hickson, it is kind of fitting that his last free agent signing was JaMychal Green, especially with his biggest free agent signing being a declining Millsap. I swear Connelly thinks perimeter defense is meaningless, but he thinks having 7 PFs on the roster only 2 of which can even try to create for themselves on offense makes total sense.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#46 » by Alatan » Sun Jul 17, 2022 9:19 am

nomansland wrote:
Alatan wrote:
nomansland wrote:Every time I read that "he traded Gobert and Mitchell" I want to throw coffee at my computer. So annoying and it ignores the context of those moves.

GM's build organizations. So if he hired good scouts and was part of the drafting process, yes he gets credit for that. The Nuggets are also good at player development. If some of those picks had gone to lesser organizations they might be playing in Israel right now. He also gets credit for that. In those areas I'd say he's among the best in the NBA.

He's not very adept when it comes to trades and salary negotiations though. The Gobert trade is an example of that. And Minnesota probably overpaid him, but that's what small market teams have to do sometimes.

The crazy thing is that they hired one of the best GM's when it comes to drafting and then traded a bunch of their draft picks, essentially playing away from his greatest strengths. Whatever though, I always liked Connelly and wish him well.


He didnt trade Gobert of Mitchell in the usual sense but the argument is very valid. He had the opportunity to pick Gobert and Mitchell for himself and passed it in favor of terrible selections. That proves he his talent evaluation is terrible and his draft successes are mostly luck.

In the 2014 draft he selected Jokic with the 41st pick while having TWO 1st round picks available. He literally passed on Jokic TWICE before selecting him with a throwaway pick. Was he so confident that Jokic would be there all the way in the mid 2nd round if he thought that he had the potential to be what he is today? Or was it just dumb luck? I call the later.


No, it isn't very valid, unless you're going to throw the same shade at the 11 other teams that passed on Mitchell and the other 27 teams that passed on Gobert.

Also remember that in the Mitchell situation, Denver already had Murray. They didn't need another SG and were trying to parlay that pick into OG and Lyles. Where TC screwed up was not just taking OG with the 13th pick. He got a little too cute and it backfired.

Utah took chances on those guys and it paid off for them. They get the credit, but the fact that TC didn't take those guys is not really that grave of an error.


We are not praising the other 11 teams for their drafting ability. Yes, it is valid. TC had the opportunity to pick 2 allstar players with his pick instead he chose some busts. Thats not what elite talent evaluators do. What are his successes? Picking Murray when he was the obvious pick left? Picking Jokic with the 41st while passing him two times before it? Picking MPJ who everyone knew was talented but had a terrible injury history?

There is no evidence that TC is good at anything and there is plenty of evidence that he sucks at many aspects of being a GM.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#47 » by Pennebaker » Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:30 am

tamaraw08 wrote:The guy has massive success...at the Draft finding great players like Jokic, MPJ, Murray, even would you believe, the freaking Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert?
The question is, Does he get full credit for finding those Gems, or he just stumbled on hiring great Scouts?
What about his other questionable moves?
Hired Brian Shaw as coach, failed.
Pre Jokic Selected then Traded Ruby Gobert for Erick Green who lasted 2 years, averaged 3 pts, under 1 reb/1 assists.
Signed guys like Jamaal Franklin, Papanikalou (2.6pts) to multiyear contracts.
2015-Traded Lawson (14.2 pts) for Dorsey, Nick Johnson and Papapanikalou.
2016-Signed the 35yr old Mike Miller to multi year contract averaged 1.35pts/game.
2017-Selected then traded Donovan Mitchell for Lyles(9.3pts) and Lydon (.9pts/game)
2018- Traded Arthur and Faried for Isaiah Whitehead

https://www.basketball-reference.com/executives/conneti99x.html
I am not saying this guy is a fraud, surely he is a smart guy, but again, how much of his success is because of his great NBA Scouts?


Wizards, Hornets, Nuggets, Wolves.

Have any of those teams won?

There's your answer.

The job isn't finished after the draft. That's when the job begins. Creating a winner is the end goal, not drafting good players.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#48 » by AussieCeltic » Sun Jul 17, 2022 11:33 am

Alatan wrote:
nomansland wrote:
Alatan wrote:
He didnt trade Gobert of Mitchell in the usual sense but the argument is very valid. He had the opportunity to pick Gobert and Mitchell for himself and passed it in favor of terrible selections. That proves he his talent evaluation is terrible and his draft successes are mostly luck.

In the 2014 draft he selected Jokic with the 41st pick while having TWO 1st round picks available. He literally passed on Jokic TWICE before selecting him with a throwaway pick. Was he so confident that Jokic would be there all the way in the mid 2nd round if he thought that he had the potential to be what he is today? Or was it just dumb luck? I call the later.


No, it isn't very valid, unless you're going to throw the same shade at the 11 other teams that passed on Mitchell and the other 27 teams that passed on Gobert.

Also remember that in the Mitchell situation, Denver already had Murray. They didn't need another SG and were trying to parlay that pick into OG and Lyles. Where TC screwed up was not just taking OG with the 13th pick. He got a little too cute and it backfired.

Utah took chances on those guys and it paid off for them. They get the credit, but the fact that TC didn't take those guys is not really that grave of an error.


We are not praising the other 11 teams for their drafting ability. Yes, it is valid. TC had the opportunity to pick 2 allstar players with his pick instead he chose some busts. Thats not what elite talent evaluators do. What are his successes? Picking Murray when he was the obvious pick left? Picking Jokic with the 41st while passing him two times before it? Picking MPJ who everyone knew was talented but had a terrible injury history?

There is no evidence that TC is good at anything and there is plenty of evidence that he sucks at many aspects of being a GM.


You have a real strange way of thinking.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#49 » by Alatan » Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:02 pm

AussieCeltic wrote:
Alatan wrote:
nomansland wrote:
No, it isn't very valid, unless you're going to throw the same shade at the 11 other teams that passed on Mitchell and the other 27 teams that passed on Gobert.

Also remember that in the Mitchell situation, Denver already had Murray. They didn't need another SG and were trying to parlay that pick into OG and Lyles. Where TC screwed up was not just taking OG with the 13th pick. He got a little too cute and it backfired.

Utah took chances on those guys and it paid off for them. They get the credit, but the fact that TC didn't take those guys is not really that grave of an error.


We are not praising the other 11 teams for their drafting ability. Yes, it is valid. TC had the opportunity to pick 2 allstar players with his pick instead he chose some busts. Thats not what elite talent evaluators do. What are his successes? Picking Murray when he was the obvious pick left? Picking Jokic with the 41st while passing him two times before it? Picking MPJ who everyone knew was talented but had a terrible injury history?

There is no evidence that TC is good at anything and there is plenty of evidence that he sucks at many aspects of being a GM.


You have a real strange way of thinking.


Jokic - if he knew ha was this talented he would have picked him with one of the two 1st round picks he had in the same draft instead of gambling on him being there in the 2nd round. He also picked another Center in Nurkic 1st. Picking Jokic in the 2nd = luck

Murray - consensus top 6 pick in 2016 gets picked 7th by the Nuggets. Do we give credit for something most other GMs would do?

MPJ - a top 3 projected player that fell in the draft because of the injury history and medical check. Nuggets gambled on him witch is fine but everyone knew he had talent. Cant give talent evaluation credit for selecting a player everyone and their grandmother knew was talented but avoided because of injuries. What we can do is take away credit because of unnecessarily maxing out said player with terrible injury history.

Gobert - picked for Utah. Had the opportunity to pick him for Denver. Missed.

Mitchell - picked for Utah. Had the opportunity to pick him for Denver. Missed.

Besley and Vanderbilt - solid picks that were left to rot on the bench. Later traded on for nothing. Started producing after leaving Denver. Vanderbilt would have been a great fit next to Jokic if given the opportunity to show off his skills. Would an elite talent evaluator not insist on giving minutes to his picks and then not insist on getting value for those picks? Or did he just pick whoever his department thought was best, saw the coach was not playing them and dumped them? Looks supper sketchy.

Had e number of irrelevant picks with lower picks. Same as other GMs.

Picked Muddiay with a high draft pick and insisted on playing him when it was clear he was trash. Had Booker, Rozier and Powell available as guards. Cant blame him for missing the other players but cant say he was good for picking a bust in Muddiay.

The only picks i can give him credit for is picking Harris, Nurkic and Morris. But those are not world shattering picks.

Considering missed opportunities, talent mismanagement and awful roster building i can say that TC is at best average at evaluating talent but had a bit of luck that made him seem like he knew what he was doing.

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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#50 » by moss_is_1 » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:20 pm

Alatan wrote:
Jokic - if he knew ha was this talented he would have picked him with one of the two 1st round picks he had in the same draft instead of gambling on him being there in the 2nd round. He also picked another Center in Nurkic 1st. Picking Jokic in the 2nd = luck

Murray - consensus top 6 pick in 2016 gets picked 7th by the Nuggets. Do we give credit for something most other GMs would do?

MPJ - a top 3 projected player that fell in the draft because of the injury history and medical check. Nuggets gambled on him witch is fine but everyone knew he had talent. Cant give talent evaluation credit for selecting a player everyone and their grandmother knew was talented but avoided because of injuries. What we can do is take away credit because of unnecessarily maxing out said player with terrible injury history.

Gobert - picked for Utah. Had the opportunity to pick him for Denver. Missed.

Mitchell - picked for Utah. Had the opportunity to pick him for Denver. Missed.

Besley and Vanderbilt - solid picks that were left to rot on the bench. Later traded on for nothing. Started producing after leaving Denver. Vanderbilt would have been a great fit next to Jokic if given the opportunity to show off his skills. Would an elite talent evaluator not insist on giving minutes to his picks and then not insist on getting value for those picks? Or did he just pick whoever his department thought was best, saw the coach was not playing them and dumped them? Looks supper sketchy.

Had e number of irrelevant picks with lower picks. Same as other GMs.

Picked Muddiay with a high draft pick and insisted on playing him when it was clear he was trash. Had Booker, Rozier and Powell available as guards. Cant blame him for missing the other players but cant say he was good for picking a bust in Muddiay.

The only picks i can give him credit for is picking Harris, Nurkic and Morris. But those are not world shattering picks.

Considering missed opportunities, talent mismanagement and awful roster building i can say that TC is at best average at evaluating talent but had a bit of luck that made him seem like he knew what he was doing.

Its ok if you cant follow.

It's easy to discredit someone's hits in the draft and magnify mistakes. Draft isn't a perfect science, the best still miss and bad drafters still get lucky. He has a good track record, he took the chances on those guys that others wouldn't.
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Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#51 » by D1SGRUNTL3D » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:23 pm

The Rebel wrote:
D1SGRUNTL3D wrote:
The Rebel wrote:As I have long said, Connelly has an argument for the best drafter in the league, he is below average on trades, and bad on free agency. The thing is with draft picks he has always managed to keep the talent level going, but I think he is heading for big trouble in Minny since they traded so many picks.

If any franchise know how unlikely it is to hit on lottery picks it’s the wolves. Once people realize they’re lottery tickets then they’ll come around. Less than 5% of wolves fan think it’s a bad deal because they know how unlikely the draft pick would have the same impact of Rudy gobert.



That's the thing though, Connelly is only really good at drafting and setting up development of young talent.

Good thing he’ll be able to hit on the 24/26/28 picks while kat, jaden mcdaniels and especially ant all enter their primes post gobert era.

Besides, teams get back into the first roundall of the time. Just because today the wolves are short on draft equity for the next near decade doesn’t mean that can’t change the next offseason or 2.

Until then the wolves have across the board one of the most talented starting 5s in the league. I’ll take it.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#52 » by Klomp » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:48 pm

Connelly values draft picks. But he doesn't place so much value that he refuses to trade them. They are extra assets that he uses freely. He still will often end up in the first round.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#53 » by Klomp » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:52 pm

tamaraw08 wrote:2015-Traded Lawson (14.2 pts) for Dorsey, Nick Johnson and Papapanikalou.

Nice job leaving facts out to make your point look better:

Lawson and a 2nd for Dorsey, Johnson, Papanikolau and a 1st
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#54 » by nomansland » Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:06 pm

Klomp wrote:
tamaraw08 wrote:2015-Traded Lawson (14.2 pts) for Dorsey, Nick Johnson and Papapanikalou.

Nice job leaving facts out to make your point look better:

Lawson and a 2nd for Dorsey, Johnson, Papanikolau and a 1st


Not to mention they pretty much had to trade Lawson. At the time the Nuggets were pretty heavily criticized for doing so but after the trade all kinds of stuff came out about his behavior, notably and sadly about his alcoholism. In the end TC got a pick from Houston that was supposed to be mid-20's and ended up in the lottery. I'd say he got a bit lucky with that one but still can't blame him for trading Lawson.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#55 » by antonac » Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:05 am

Jury is still out.

He put Denver in a decent position but the hardest step of all is to go from good to great and Denver haven't really looked like a team that can win it all yet. If anything he's actually come up short on putting a team round jokic, though I still like the Gordon trade.

Jokic was kinda lucky though, I mean, even Connolly passed on him earlier in the draft.

Mpj was, and still is, a gamble. Denver were loaded with guards at that point, if you look at that draft you'll see the next 10 guys picked were guards, basically we needed a forward and rolled the dice on his injury history. Has it paid off? Well he's currently injured so not really.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#56 » by azcatz11 » Mon May 20, 2024 3:26 am

I said he was lucky as hell for awhile...what a job this dude did. Minnesota is the most complete team left and Connelly is poised to make $20M a year potentially as a POBO
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#57 » by thinktank » Mon May 20, 2024 3:51 am

Ainge is overrated.
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Re: Is TWolves Connelly overrated? 

Post#58 » by jkvonny » Mon May 20, 2024 7:40 am

His original team (Nuggets) won the NBA title last season.

His current team (TWolves) just beat the defending champs (his old team) and are now in the WCF.

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