2025 NBA PLAYOFFS West First Round: #4 Denver Nuggets vs #5 LA Clippers (DEN leads 1-0)

[MarcusBrody]

Gordon on Kawhi is a good matchup for Denver. He's big and strong enough and fast enough to really bother him. I think that's a win scenario for Denver as far as defensive matchups. Kawhi isn't the switch-hunter that Harden is either so he'll probably accept the task, which is also a win for Denver.

Braun on Harden is initially an L for Denver, but I think Braun will get used to Harden over the course of the series and Harden's averages will start to dwindle -- as they typically do the later a series goes.

OTOH, LA is a nightmare matchup for Denver on the perimeter. Dunn, DJJ, and Kawhi are all good defenders for Murray. Zubac will probably not get help against Jokic, limiting the easier shots for the other guys. If Kawhi is on Gordon, he won't be doing much of anything either.

MPJ's performance this series will be critical to if Denver advances. And you know that's bad news, because I haven't seen him really show up in years.

Denver will need a throwback performance from Westbrook to win this. The good news is, I think that's possible.

1. He'll have a serious grudge against the Clippers
2. Westbrook is one of the best Harden defenders in the league

Of course, he'll kill you in crunchtime, but I don't think this new coach will put him out there in crunchtime. If Westbrook can come in and maximize his minutes, put some clamps on Harden, and then let Braun close the games, I like Denver's chances.

I can realistically see a scenario where Westbrook has one of the best series of his life against the Clippers, helping to eliminate them, and then catastrophically self-destructs and takes Denver with him against OKC.

You have a Lakers flair. MPJ showed up against your team last year. He went for 23 and 8 on .698 TS%. He hit multiple big shots to stop LA runs. I thought he was clearly Denver's second best player in the series after Jokic. He was bad in the next series against MN, but you only have to go back on series to see him showing up, not years. He does need to find his shot, though. He hasn't been shooting particularly well lately from 3.

I'm not as optimistic about the Harden/Braun matchup as you are for Denver. Braun's biggest defensive issue is his poor screen navigation. Zubac is a good screener and Harden is one of the best ever in terms of using them. That's going to leave Jokic facing Harden either in drop or on the perimeter and Harden's ability to draw fouls is going to force Jokic to be really conservative. Braun is often moving too fast to try to get back in position when he finally does get through a screen. I can imagine Harden taking advantage of that.

[picc]

You have a Lakers flair. MPJ showed up against your team last year. He went for 23 and 8 on .698 TS%. He hit multiple big shots to stop LA runs. I thought he was clearly Denver's second best player in the series after Jokic. He was bad in the next series against MN, but you only have to go back on series to see him showing up, not years. He does need to find his shot, though. He hasn't been shooting particularly well lately from 3.

I'm not as optimistic about the Harden/Braun matchup as you are for Denver. Braun's biggest defensive issue is his poor screen navigation. Zubac is a good screener and Harden is one of the best ever in terms of using them. That's going to leave Jokic facing Harden either in drop or on the perimeter and Harden's ability to draw fouls is going to force Jokic to be really conservative. Braun is often moving too fast to try to get back in position when he finally does get through a screen. I can imagine Harden taking advantage of that.

Very fair point on #1, but the whole Denver team seems to unlock against the Lakers. I don't remember him being that good against anyone else. And have been very underwhelmed by him all this year. I hope he shows up because it will make for a better series, but I just don't have confidence in him as a player at this point.

For Braun/Harden, I agree Harden is going to try to put Jokic in action as much as possible, which is advantage for him. But in iso situations I think Braun will slowly adjust and Harden will slowly falter. That's what I've seen from him his whole career and I don't see any reason to think different.

OTOH, it's also likely Harden will try to switch onto Murray as much as possible. Because why not. I think Jamal can have moments as a defender but that's a matchup win for LA.

[Chuck Everett]

Kris Dunn/Derrick Jones Jr as x-factors. This is a series Peyton Watson can play in though because the Clippers are like all wings. Someone is going to have to tag Norm Powell. He's a Nuggets killer.

Give me Denver in 7, but if Murray is going to be so-so, then I like The System to get the job done. If Murray is able to be all-star caliber, then I don't see the Nuggets losing in Round 1.

[Edrees]

You have a Lakers flair. MPJ showed up against your team last year. He went for 23 and 8 on .698 TS%. He hit multiple big shots to stop LA runs. I thought he was clearly Denver's second best player in the series after Jokic. He was bad in the next series against MN, but you only have to go back on series to see him showing up, not years. He does need to find his shot, though. He hasn't been shooting particularly well lately from 3.

I'm not as optimistic about the Harden/Braun matchup as you are for Denver. Braun's biggest defensive issue is his poor screen navigation. Zubac is a good screener and Harden is one of the best ever in terms of using them. That's going to leave Jokic facing Harden either in drop or on the perimeter and Harden's ability to draw fouls is going to force Jokic to be really conservative. Braun is often moving too fast to try to get back in position when he finally does get through a screen. I can imagine Harden taking advantage of that.

Very fair point on #1, but the whole Denver team seems to unlock against the Lakers. I don't remember him being that good against anyone else. And have been very underwhelmed by him all this year. I hope he shows up because it will make for a better series, but I just don't have confidence in him as a player at this point.

For Braun/Harden, I agree Harden is going to try to put Jokic in action as much as possible, which is advantage for him. But in iso situations I think Braun will slowly adjust and Harden will slowly falter. That's what I've seen from him his whole career and I don't see any reason to think different.

OTOH, it's also likely Harden will try to switch onto Murray as much as possible. Because why not. I think Jamal can have moments as a defender but that's a matchup win for LA.

The Denver team unlocked against Ham. Those players played their averages when Vogel was coach, and played averages again when Redick became coach. It was Darvin Ham that unlocked then, not the Lakers in general.

[picc]

Kris Dunn/Derrick Jones Jr as x-factors. This is a series Peyton Watson can play in though because the Clippers are like all wings. Someone is going to have to tag Norm Powell. He's a Nuggets killer.

Give me Denver in 7, but if Murray is going to be so-so, then I like The System to get the job done. If Murray is able to be all-star caliber, then I don't see the Nuggets losing in Round 1.

Don't forget the possibility that at literally any moment, Kawhi's season could end.

[picc]

The Denver team unlocked against Ham. Those players played their averages when Vogel was coach, and played averages again when Redick became coach. It was Darvin Ham that unlocked then, not the Lakers in general.

Maybe. Regardless, MPJ has been super underwhelming outside of that so I don't have much faith in him lifting Denver. But again, I hope I'm wrong.

[MarcusBrody]

You have a Lakers flair. MPJ showed up against your team last year. He went for 23 and 8 on .698 TS%. He hit multiple big shots to stop LA runs. I thought he was clearly Denver's second best player in the series after Jokic. He was bad in the next series against MN, but you only have to go back on series to see him showing up, not years. He does need to find his shot, though. He hasn't been shooting particularly well lately from 3.

I'm not as optimistic about the Harden/Braun matchup as you are for Denver. Braun's biggest defensive issue is his poor screen navigation. Zubac is a good screener and Harden is one of the best ever in terms of using them. That's going to leave Jokic facing Harden either in drop or on the perimeter and Harden's ability to draw fouls is going to force Jokic to be really conservative. Braun is often moving too fast to try to get back in position when he finally does get through a screen. I can imagine Harden taking advantage of that.

Very fair point on #1, but the whole Denver team seems to unlock against the Lakers. I don't remember him being that good against anyone else. And have been very underwhelmed by him all this year. I hope he shows up because it will make for a better series, but I just don't have confidence in him as a player at this point.

For Braun/Harden, I agree Harden is going to try to put Jokic in action as much as possible, which is advantage for him. But in iso situations I think Braun will slowly adjust and Harden will slowly falter. That's what I've seen from him his whole career and I don't see any reason to think different.

OTOH, it's also likely Harden will try to switch onto Murray as much as possible. Because why not. I think Jamal can have moments as a defender but that's a matchup win for LA.

The Denver team unlocked against Ham. Those players played their averages when Vogel was coach, and played averages again when Redick became coach. It was Darvin Ham that unlocked then, not the Lakers in general.

Murray didn't play well that series. He put up some volume scoring and did have the big moments, but if he'd played halfway decent they wouldn't have needed them. He shot .400 for the series on high volume. That's pretty awful. KCP was pretty bad. Braun was bad. Gordon was solid, basically his average with some up and down games.

Really only Porter Jr. unlocked in that series, but people remember it differently due to the big moments from Murray.

[Chuck Everett]

Kris Dunn/Derrick Jones Jr as x-factors. This is a series Peyton Watson can play in though because the Clippers are like all wings. Someone is going to have to tag Norm Powell. He's a Nuggets killer.

Give me Denver in 7, but if Murray is going to be so-so, then I like The System to get the job done. If Murray is able to be all-star caliber, then I don't see the Nuggets losing in Round 1.

Don't forget the possibility that at literally any moment, Kawhi's season could end.

Well, the one thing I can say that's different about Denver vs. Dallas last year (if this can help Kawhi), it's that Denver plays a way less athletic brand of basketball. Sure, there's backdoor cuts and off-ball action, but that Mavs team had a bunch of athletes that could really press up against you and make life difficult. Denver will try to get in transition with Braun, but other than that, Harden should easily be able to control the pace of the game and make it a halfcourt affair.

I'm basically expecting Kawhi to play from free throw line to free throw line in this series, except for those rare occasions when he's matched up with Aaron Gordon. Let's hope he doesn't need to hold onto any rims for a TV timeout this time. Even if the Clippers are able to win this series, I don't know how he will be able to hold up against the Thunder athletes.

[picc]

Kris Dunn/Derrick Jones Jr as x-factors. This is a series Peyton Watson can play in though because the Clippers are like all wings. Someone is going to have to tag Norm Powell. He's a Nuggets killer.

Give me Denver in 7, but if Murray is going to be so-so, then I like The System to get the job done. If Murray is able to be all-star caliber, then I don't see the Nuggets losing in Round 1.

Don't forget the possibility that at literally any moment, Kawhi's season could end.

Well, the one thing I can say that's different about Denver vs. Dallas last year (if this can help Kawhi), it's that Denver plays a way less athletic brand of basketball. Sure, there's backdoor cuts and off-ball action, but that Mavs team had a bunch of athletes that could really press up against you and make life difficult. Denver will try to get in transition with Braun, but other than that, Harden should easily be able to control the pace of the game and make it a halfcourt affair.

I'm basically expecting Kawhi to play from free throw line to free throw line in this series, except for those rare occasions when he's matched up with Aaron Gordon. Let's hope he doesn't need to hold onto any rims for a TV timeout this time. Even if the Clippers are able to win this series, I don't know how he will be able to hold up against the Thunder athletes.

Very true. But Kawhi's injuries are so precarious he could just step the wrong way during a dead ball, and its tweaked, and he's out. I'm sure a high octane series would be more strenuous on his knee but I don't have confidence in it no matter what.

[Tomhomes33]

Lets be honest here.it depends how well two best guys on each team play..
If Jokic averages tripple double in the series and Murray has at least 4 games with 30+pts..Denver will very likely win it
If Kawhy stays healthy (which converts into +25pts/game) and Harden keeps shooting well and does not turn turn the ball (less then 3TO/game) then very likely Clippers advance.
If all 4 all-stars play great then AG vs Zubac will be a factor..
Its really close call and about 50-50% chances right at this very moment

[iggymcfrack]

Clippers in 6. Jokic is the best player in the series, but Kawhi is not too far behind. Harden is far ahead of Jamal Murray. Clippers also got more reliable depth

Kawhi's "not too far behind" Joker, but Harden's "far ahead of" Jamal Murray? Come on now. That's absolutely absurd.

I'd say the chances Murray outplays Harden for the series are what, maybe 25-30%? The chances Kawhi outplays Joker have to be close to zero. Maybe 2.5-3% if we're being generous?

[infinite11285]

Nuggets in 6

[Twizlers]

I'm a Nuggets fan and I just don't see how they win this series. No idea how they are favored. Nuggets just not playing like a championship contending team. Yes they are the 4 seed but they were so close to dropping to the play in themselves, and Clippers are running hot. Jokic is amazing, but this year proves he can't do it all himself. The Nuggets have to make shots outside of Jokic and be able to defend, both of which has been a struggle this whole year.

One can hope Murray/MPJ go off (although Gordan has played better than both most of the year) but it's truly wishful thinking because of how inconsistent both have been. Maybe the past 3 games carry on into this series but I just feel it's a lot of hope in Nuggets nation that will be squashed after this series. I will go Clippers in 5, possibly 6 if Murray or MPJ just go off like they have the tendency to do periodically.

[IG2]

Hard to rely on 2 things in the playoffs: 1) Kawhi's health and 2) Harden maintaining his regular season play

Denver in 7

[Wolfgang630]

Nuggets are underdogs it looks like.

[OkcSinceSGA]

Read on Twitter

[Alatan]

The Clippers are healthier, deeper, actually have a defense, have the 2nd, the 3rd and the 4th best players as well as a competent coach. That being said...

[Alatan]

Read on Twitter

Batum is actually gonna be much better than Powell come playoff time. Same with Bogi. They have been on fire lately after putrid starts.

Does this take into account Murray's ceiling where he can be a top 5 player on any given night in the playoffs?

Only if it also takes into account Murray cellar dungeon where he occasionally buries the Nuggets.

[Alatan]

Jokic homers seem to be having an existential crisis.

A. They are listing how good Jamal Murray, Braun, Gordon are etc.. and how the Clippers have no clear matchup advantages really.

B. After arguing all season that Jokic was carrying scrubs and the corpse of Murray.

Obviously both things cannot be true. Either Jokic did a carry job, or the Nuggets are a very good team period. Because the Clips aren’t a one man show. IF the Jokic homers are right that it’s only Jokic, Denver will lose in 5. Reality? Denver has several very good role players and it goes to 6-7 for me.

The Nuggets are trash, but id love to see Kawhi get PTSD flashbacks from the bubble and lose the series again.

[darkse1d]

As a nuggets fan, I hate this matchup for them.

Clippers have the better players and better depth and have the guards to slow and tire down Murray. Last year we saw what Ant, NAW and McDaniels did to Murray. He was on complete lockdown compared to the series against Lakers when he was being guarded by reeves or DLo.

The question will really come down to how well Gordon and MPJ play. Gordon has to slow down Kawhi and score 20+ and I don't think he can do both so his scoring will be very important. Same with MPJ, he has to be aggressive and his shots need to fall. Can't go 1/9 and expect to win the series.

My gut says Clippers in 7 but I'm hoping that Jokic is enough to offset Kawhi and harden scoring.