I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore.

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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#61 » by Lockdown504090 » Tue Jul 1, 2025 2:26 pm

The Master wrote:Btw all the players mentioned in this thread in the last season in terms of BPM and on/off metrics:

Image

Interestingly, only Reaves and Herro are visibly positive in both of these stats. I guess these players not getting any love from GMs is also a major consequence of analytics-first approach to players evaluation. You don't have to dig that much deep to actually find out almost none of them is really a positive player, especially considering most of them played on very mid teams.

So all the fit and playoffs talk aside - they're just not even too productive in boxscore consideration, if you include any other factor than raw points per game. The average BPM in the RS for this group is 0.1, so league average basically, lol, if you exclude Reaves/Herro - that's -0.3.

I really dont think this is a good way of measuring the value some of these guys bring. you can put cam thomas in the game with a lineup that cant score and he can give you league average scoring against above average defenses. for 5 minutes while your main guys are resting, and he can also play with that guy. Thats what these players are ideally doing for you. if denver had any of these guys, the non joker minutes problem would be helped a lot. Thats why these two numbers in particular are kinda misleading. I dont think any of these guys are occupying that role currently.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#62 » by tsherkin » Tue Jul 1, 2025 2:37 pm

Lockdown504090 wrote:you can put cam thomas in the game with a lineup that cant score and he can give you league average scoring against above average defenses.


We don't know that. Prior to his abbreviated 25-game season in 24-25, he was averaging 54.3% TS, and 95 TS+. 2025 was his first season of 100 TS+ (he was -0.1% rTS), and it was over a quarter season.

So yes, if you get THAT Cam Thomas, then his offense has some kind of value in that context. If you get his usual self, though, over that much larger sample, then he's very much not worth volume focus.

And then of course BPM and ON/OFF also have any consideration for defensive value, which doesn't help a player like Thomas.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#63 » by WargamesX » Tue Jul 1, 2025 2:52 pm

These things happen in waves whenever there is a lot of talent at a position. Centers were undervalued a few years ago and now they are considered necessary again. There might be a lot of SG’s now but a few years ago it felt like only a handful of highly talented ones were around the league. At almost every position we see this at different times.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#64 » by Emhoward » Tue Jul 1, 2025 3:00 pm

Interestingly enough this very same conversation came up on the Mind the Game pod with KD as special guest. I believe it was KD that brought it up. I think they used Garland as an example. They didn't go as in depth as this thread but it was a good convo.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#65 » by The Master » Tue Jul 1, 2025 3:02 pm

Lockdown504090 wrote:
The Master wrote:Btw all the players mentioned in this thread in the last season in terms of BPM and on/off metrics:

Image

Interestingly, only Reaves and Herro are visibly positive in both of these stats. I guess these players not getting any love from GMs is also a major consequence of analytics-first approach to players evaluation. You don't have to dig that much deep to actually find out almost none of them is really a positive player, especially considering most of them played on very mid teams.

So all the fit and playoffs talk aside - they're just not even too productive in boxscore consideration, if you include any other factor than raw points per game. The average BPM in the RS for this group is 0.1, so league average basically, lol, if you exclude Reaves/Herro - that's -0.3.

I really dont think this is a good way of measuring the value some of these guys bring. you can put cam thomas in the game with a lineup that cant score and he can give you league average scoring against above average defenses. for 5 minutes while your main guys are resting, and he can also play with that guy. Thats what these players are ideally doing for you. if denver had any of these guys, the non joker minutes problem would be helped a lot. Thats why these two numbers in particular are kinda misleading. I dont think any of these guys are occupying that role currently.

Again, I'm not saying these players aren't useful under specific circumstances (your example is perhaps valid) - my point is that even according to the semi-advanced metrics (BPM, on/off) they're mostly just mediocre players. Even mid-player can have useful skills, but it is very rare, I guess.

So it's more about them being mid than just 'scoring guards not being all-star calibre of players'.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#66 » by tsherkin » Tue Jul 1, 2025 3:05 pm

WargamesX wrote:These things happen in waves whenever there is a lot of talent at a position. Centers were undervalued a few years ago and now they are considered necessary again.


To be fair, that had more to do with people being ignorant than anything else. There's been a fairly high amount of talent at the 5 for quite a while now, but people have still been dealing with the hangover of the 3pt era and their love affair with Daryl Morey's ideal shot selection.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#67 » by cupcakesnake » Tue Jul 1, 2025 3:39 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:
hauntedcomputer wrote:The Sixth Man of the Year award bizarrely went from valuable, positive players like Bobby Jones, Kevin McHale, Bill Walton, and Detlef Schrempf to inefficient gunners like Lou Williams, Jordan Clarkson, and Jamal Crawford. There was a false value assigned.

Clarkson now is accurately valued as a vet minimum. Someone like Caruso is a far more deserving Sixth Man of the Year.

This was so annoying, they should have renamed the award to "Most PPG from the bench" award since none of these guys was the most valuable bench player in the league. Clarkson winning was particularly bizarre he wasn't even the best bench player on his own team that year.


Manu Ginobili having 1, and Andre Iguodala having 0, while Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford have 3 each is probably the single worst award-related story in the NBA.

By my count, Iggy deserves 3 (2015, 2015, 2017), and Manu deserves 4 (2007, 2008, 2010, 2014). I didn't mind Lou Will winning in 2018, as he really peaked as a playmaker. I don't see a year where Crawford should have won.

The other crazy 6moy was Jordan Clarkson beating his own teammates, Joe Ingles, in 2021. Clarkson averaged 6 more ppg, but as a negativity scorer. Ingles was a mega efficient scorer (49/45/84 splits) while averaging double the assists Clarkson averaged (4.7 to 2.5) without averaging more turnovers. The Jazz were +5.4 points better with Joe on the floor, and -3.5 worse with Crawford. Joe was also used as a closer way more often than Clarkson. It was abundantly clear to anyone watching the Jazz, that Joe was the more important player. Voters still just blilndly looked at ppg and voted for Clarkson.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#68 » by Yank3525 » Tue Jul 1, 2025 3:43 pm

It isn't really a surprise. Players like these were more valuable 10-12 years ago when we had about 10 20 point scorers. Now everyone and their mothers can get 20 points. So if you can't really do anything outside of score then you aren't really that valuable anymore.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#69 » by tsherkin » Tue Jul 1, 2025 3:49 pm

Yank3525 wrote:It isn't really a surprise. Players like these were more valuable 10-12 years ago when we had about 10 20 point scorers.


Even then, their value was quite variable depending on how good they were and what else they did.

Now everyone and their mothers can get 20 points. So if you can't really do anything outside of score then you aren't really that valuable anymore.


The volume isn't the point. 12 years ago, league average pace was 92 possessions per game and team 3PA/g averaged out at 20.0. In 2025, average pace was 98.8 and teams took 37.6 3PA/g.

The volume part isn't really the difference. The numbers are a little inflated because usage is different and there are more transition possessions every game. And of course overall spacing is different, and minutes are a little different. A 20 ppg scorer today is more like a 15 ppg scorer then, much as was the case in the 80s. It's just a function of how the game is working.

The value hasn't changed, just the superficial box score appearance.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#70 » by Lockdown504090 » Tue Jul 1, 2025 4:05 pm

tsherkin wrote:
Lockdown504090 wrote:you can put cam thomas in the game with a lineup that cant score and he can give you league average scoring against above average defenses.


We don't know that. Prior to his abbreviated 25-game season in 24-25, he was averaging 54.3% TS, and 95 TS+. 2025 was his first season of 100 TS+ (he was -0.1% rTS), and it was over a quarter season.

So yes, if you get THAT Cam Thomas, then his offense has some kind of value in that context. If you get his usual self, though, over that much larger sample, then he's very much not worth volume focus.

And then of course BPM and ON/OFF also have any consideration for defensive value, which doesn't help a player like Thomas.

im not saying theyre like above mediocre, but, i think we've overcorrected from box score watching to not valuing these guys. A guy like moses moody only looks good when the star is off the floor if a guy like thomas is taking pressure off him from having to do anything with the ball or make tricky decisions. like for example, everyone ragging on kuminga for good reason, but when jimmy not aggressive and steph was out, his league average scoring looks way better. when you are looking at the "Volume eaters" you have to look at them in only a couple ways. 1. can they get to PLAYOFF league average, which is lower than regular season if its two good defenses. 2. can they do this against a playoff defense which means less spacing because guys are nervous,theres more help, and guys know your moves/plays better. 3. how damaging are the other parts of their game. 4. are they the most attactive person to run plays on in the playoffs? these high volume creators often look better on a playoff run. A lot of these guys have things about their games that are very difficult to contain, its the either tough shot making, getting to the foul like, or forcing teams to decide whether to contain their drive, or contest the 3 ball offf the bounce.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#71 » by WargamesX » Tue Jul 1, 2025 4:11 pm

tsherkin wrote:
WargamesX wrote:These things happen in waves whenever there is a lot of talent at a position. Centers were undervalued a few years ago and now they are considered necessary again.


To be fair, that had more to do with people being ignorant than anything else. There's been a fairly high amount of talent at the 5 for quite a while now, but people have still been dealing with the hangover of the 3pt era and their love affair with Daryl Morey's ideal shot selection.

True but it still counts, there are just times when certain positions are undervalued either due to a phase in play style being popular or because there being way too many good players available at that position.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#72 » by tsherkin » Tue Jul 1, 2025 4:14 pm

Lockdown504090 wrote:im not saying theyre like above mediocre, but, i think we've overcorrected from box score watching to not valuing these guys. A guy like moses moody only looks good when the star is off the floor if a guy like thomas is taking pressure off him from having to do anything with the ball or make tricky decisions. like for example, everyone ragging on kuminga for good reason, but when jimmy not aggressive and steph was out, his league average scoring looks way better. when you are looking at the "Volume eaters" you have to look at them in only a couple ways. 1. can they get to PLAYOFF league average, which is lower than regular season if its two good defenses. 2. can they do this against a playoff defense which means less spacing because guys are nervous,theres more help, and guys know your moves/plays better. 3. how damaging are the other parts of their game. 4. are they the most attactive person to run plays on in the playoffs? these high volume creators often look better on a playoff run. A lot of these guys have things about their games that are very difficult to contain, its the either tough shot making, getting to the foul like, or forcing teams to decide whether to contain their drive, or contest the 3 ball offf the bounce.


Yeah, having any kind of scoring is good. The point I was making is that Thomas has only a brief partial season of looking like "not crap" as a scorer, and he isn't a good defender. So if he reverts to his average level, then no, he isn't a valuable player to any meaningful degree. If he's scoring as he did in the quarter season he played this year, it's a little different... but he's definitely not a guy you want to play for 30+ mpg, and certainly not as a starter.

Meantime, speaking to the points:

1) Yes, but almost everyone scores at worse efficiency in the playoffs, so someone like Cam Thomas will certainly do the same.
2) Yep, but this is basically the same thing as 1, because we're evaluating efficacy against what tend to be better defenses, with scouting improving game to game
3) Yep, 100%
4) Less important, I'd say, depending on roster particulars. In the playoffs, stars play higher MPG, so there's less time spent with no higher-order creators on the floor

Someone like Cam Thomas is pretty low-value, always has been. There's been times when teams have inappropriately prioritized them more because they didn't have as advanced an understanding of the game, sure, but that's not where we're at.

In the broader sense, having someone who isn't a hyper-elite efficiency guy who can initiate an offensive possession remains valuable. That's why someone like Brandon Ingram (when healthy), even over the past few seasons, is an attractive player. He's a league-average efficiency guy in most seasons, but he can pass and he can run PnR and he can isolate, is a threat at range for spacing, etc. Obviously he's a much higher tier of player than someone like Thomas, but he's a good, exaggerated example of the concept.

A decade ago, Jamal Crawford was another one, although he also highlighted limitations. He wasn't a particularly smart player, and he fell apart in the playoffs a lot, which limited his value. Kind of like Lou Williams. Both were earlier examples of what happens when you shoot too much from 3 and don't have a hot inside game. And even in the RS, Crawford was quite inconsistent.

Generally, you're willing to tolerate somewhat lower efficiency out of your supporting cast if they aren't just spot-up or lob-threat types of players, for sure. But only so far. There is a point where you're just shooting yourself in the foot with crappy possessions, and so you need to find that trade-off. Is there defensive value, is their playmaking, etc.
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Re: I think we have reached a point where scoring guards who are not all star level don't have a lot of value anymore. 

Post#73 » by tsherkin » Tue Jul 1, 2025 4:15 pm

WargamesX wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
WargamesX wrote:These things happen in waves whenever there is a lot of talent at a position. Centers were undervalued a few years ago and now they are considered necessary again.


To be fair, that had more to do with people being ignorant than anything else. There's been a fairly high amount of talent at the 5 for quite a while now, but people have still been dealing with the hangover of the 3pt era and their love affair with Daryl Morey's ideal shot selection.

True but it still counts, there are just times when certain positions are undervalued either due to a phase in play style being popular or because there being way too many good players available at that position.


But my point was that it sort of missed the point when you spoke of talent. The talent has BEEN present, people have just been choosing to bitch without substance for quite some time. (specifically about centers, I mean)

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