Manu Ginobili vs. Ray Allen vs. Reggie Miller

[NZB2323]

Allen absolutely could not handle the ball and pass like Manu. Sure, he handled the ball more than Reggie, but he wasn't adding a ton of value there. His primary value was as a movement shooter and he was just worse at it than Reggie. Reggie was more efficient from the field, got to line more, and was a playoff riser in a way Ray was not.

And no, there's really no scenario where Ray makes your team better than Manu. Manu is one of the best two-way guards of all time and was a +/- monster throughout his career. If the Celtics had Manu instead of Ray they are winning more than one title.

Ray Allen had an assist% of 27.1% with the 01 Bucks. The only playoff run Manu had a higher assist% where he played as many games was 2013. Let’s compare the teammates they had.

Ray Allen:
Sam Cassell
Glenn Robinson
Tim Thomas
Ervin Johnson

Manu Ginobili:
Tony Parker
Kawhi
Duncan
Danny Green

Which roster is it easier to get assists with? Ray Allen would have thrived with that team.

And if you’re going by +/-, Ray Allen has a higher playoff career +/- than Reggie Miller or Manu Ginobili.

And if we’re just going by prime, then we shouldn’t talk about Ray Allen with the Celtics. He was past his prime by then, and he really should have made the finals in 01 if the series was called fairly, and his supporting cast wasn’t as good as the 2000 Pacers or any Spurs team Manu played on.

Assist percentage is pretty role and system driven. Should note Ray's next best was 22.7 (3 games), 19.5 (11) and then fell to 12.7 for his next highest.

Manu has 12 playoff runs over 20% and his role and the spur's offensive system changes numerous times over that decade plus.

I agree assist % is role and system driven. Ginobili played within the beautiful system and had the role of the distributor for most of his career. Ray Allen had the role of spot up shooter for most of his career.

It makes sense that Ray Allen would have a low assist % on the 08 Celtics with Rondo, Pierce, KG, and Perk, where the coach’s plan was to only practice defense because “offense would come.” Rondo was the facilitator and Ray’s job was to be the spot up shooter. His assist % in the regular season fell from 19% to 14.6%.

The offensive changes benefitted Manu’s assist %. From 03-08 he’s at 16.3-23.8% in the playoffs. Then from 2010-2015 he’s at 23-36.4%.

Ginobili also got to play within Duncan and never missed the playoffs, so he had more playoff runs.

At best 1/10th is an exaggeration.

[dballislife]

a really easy one and people are messing up

1. no debate here its ray
2. reggie one of few players that put up better playoff stats then regular season

3. and manu was really good too

[G R E Y]

Don't recall if I'd posted here, but 1. Manu. The other two can fight about second.

[balrog27]

anyone seen young reggie play live? I'm surprised he took that many free throws earlier in his career!

[dhsilv2]

Ray Allen had an assist% of 27.1% with the 01 Bucks. The only playoff run Manu had a higher assist% where he played as many games was 2013. Let’s compare the teammates they had.

Ray Allen:
Sam Cassell
Glenn Robinson
Tim Thomas
Ervin Johnson

Manu Ginobili:
Tony Parker
Kawhi
Duncan
Danny Green

Which roster is it easier to get assists with? Ray Allen would have thrived with that team.

And if you’re going by +/-, Ray Allen has a higher playoff career +/- than Reggie Miller or Manu Ginobili.

And if we’re just going by prime, then we shouldn’t talk about Ray Allen with the Celtics. He was past his prime by then, and he really should have made the finals in 01 if the series was called fairly, and his supporting cast wasn’t as good as the 2000 Pacers or any Spurs team Manu played on.

Assist percentage is pretty role and system driven. Should note Ray's next best was 22.7 (3 games), 19.5 (11) and then fell to 12.7 for his next highest.

Manu has 12 playoff runs over 20% and his role and the spur's offensive system changes numerous times over that decade plus.

I agree assist % is role and system driven. Ginobili played within the beautiful system and had the role of the distributor for most of his career. Ray Allen had the role of spot up shooter for most of his career.

It makes sense that Ray Allen would have a low assist % on the 08 Celtics with Rondo, Pierce, KG, and Perk, where the coach’s plan was to only practice defense because “offense would come.” Rondo was the facilitator and Ray’s job was to be the spot up shooter. His assist % in the regular season fell from 19% to 14.6%.

The offensive changes benefitted Manu’s assist %. From 03-08 he’s at 16.3-23.8% in the playoffs. Then from 2010-2015 he’s at 23-36.4%.

Ginobili also got to play within Duncan and never missed the playoffs, so he had more playoff runs.

At best 1/10th is an exaggeration.

I mean the roles that coaches place players in are based on what they're best at. The Spurs had Parker who while not a great play maker, he couldn't shoot so they needed Manu's shooting off ball.

At the end of the day if you're discussing the greatest passers in NBA history, Manu's in that conversation. Ray Allen isn't even a foot note.

[ellobo]

anyone seen young reggie play live? I'm surprised he took that many free throws earlier in his career!

Sure. I saw his whole career including college, although as a Knicks fan in the NYC market, I only saw games against the Knicks and nationally televised games (which included a lot of playoff games). Drawing fouls was always a strength of Reggie's game. He has a career FTr+ of 126, and 129 in the playoffs. Manu was also way above league average at 133, but Ray Allen had a career FTr+ of 84. It's one of the reasons Reggie was such an efficient scorer (116 career TS+).

And it wasn't just early in his career. Out of his last 4 seasons, from age 36-39, he had FTr+ seasons of 121, 119, and 115 (along with a subpar 92, his lowest since his rookie year).

[lessthanjake]

I think this is pretty easily Manu, and I am pretty high on both of the other two guys.

On a per-possession basis, Manu genuinely had the impact of a top-tier all-time great. He is ranked 9th all-time in lifetime RAPM (https://xrapm.com/table_pages/RAPM_29y.html). Using NBArapm’s RAPM measure, he is one of only 6 players that have two non-overlapping top 3 finishes in five-year RAPM. The others on that list are LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Stephen Curry, and Chris Paul. He’s also one of only 6 players that have three non-overlapping top 10 finishes in five-year RAPM. This time, the others on that list are LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, and Chris Paul. In their years together, the Spurs did better with Ginobili on the court and Duncan off the court than they did with Duncan on the court and Ginobili off the court. And lest you think that Ginobili was just facing bench units, in those minutes with Ginobili and without Duncan, the Spurs did even better at times when the opposing team had 4 or 5 starters on the court. Meanwhile, together with Duncan, Ginobili peaked out at the highest net rating together that two stars have ever had in a season (+20.38 net rating together in 2005). This is higher than the 2017 Warriors had with Steph, Durant, and Draymond all on the court. His impact stays incredible in the playoffs. It’s hard to measure playoff impact due to sample sizes so no measure is all that reliable, but FWIW Ginobili is #3 in career playoff RAPM (behind only LeBron and Draymond). If we zero in even more specifically than just the playoffs, we find that Ginobili had the best plus-minus on the Spurs in all four Finals that they won with him (2003, 2005, 2007, and 2014). Ginobili’s impact is just completely unassailable. He was one of the most impactful players in the NBA for an incredibly long time. By per-possession impact, he’s swimming in a pool that Ray Allen and Reggie Miller would just never get anywhere near.

And then we also get to the fact that Ginobili was the Spurs’ best player in one of their title-winning years (2005). He was probably better that year than Duncan in the regular season (various impact and box measures have them really close, with each of them being a bit ahead of the other in some measures). And Ginobili was definitely the Spurs’s best player in the 2005 playoffs. So yeah, overall, Ginobili was actually the best player on a title-winning team. Again, this is something that Ray Allen and Reggie Miller have simply not achieved.

Of course, this also just leads to pure achievement. Ginobili has simply won more than the other two. He has 4 NBA titles, and an Olympic Gold Medal with a non-USA team. There’s a big achievement gap.

The only caveat is the fact that he played fewer minutes than other great players. But Reggie and Ray were on the lower end of minutes for star players, so the gap here isn’t as big as it might be for other Manu comparisons. And when faced with the fact that Manu looks like a top 10-20 player in history by impact, was the best player on a championship team, and has won 4 titles and an Olympic gold medal, I think it’s pretty easy to conclude that Ginobili is ahead of the other two.

As for the other two, I think I’d probably take Reggie Miller over Ray Allen, because of how much Reggie upped his game in the playoffs. But it’s actually a close comparison.

[Johnny Bball]

Reggie all day long. First option and clutch. Didn't have two all world players with him on the floor making space, didn't get a gather step or a restricted area for half his career.