Simmons:Celtics will break 3pt attempts/game record.

[dans1230]

I’ve never understood the hate with more outside shooting. It’s a game of points. More points wins. The skill set evolving to take advantage of the extra points seems logical. I know watching everyone chuck bad shots isn’t the idea, and a diverse NBA offence would be a good thing, but I think it inherently isn’t a bad trend.

I do not have to watch Boston, so I do not care, but I think they lost Knicks series because of their love for 3. They barely ran anything, how many times they just dribbled the ball pass the court and to just shot contested 3, it was happening all the time in that series and thas just not good offense, anyone can do that. There is a reason offensive systems exist.

It was a frustrating series to watch, its beautiful when the shots are going in, but the inability to adjust when the shots are not going in can drive you crazy. You have to be able to drive and draw fouls to collapse the defense from time to time when the shooting gets cold.
I really have no idea about record breaking 3 pt shooting this season, seems like Simons likes to drive the ball, and the center rotaion certainly wont shoot the volume of 3 pt shots that Porzingis and Horford shot. Boucher will most likely play alot of Tatums missed minutes where i dont see him shooting Tatums 10 attempts per game, probably more around 4 or 5. Personnel dictates style of play in the NBA, Boston is still built as a 3 pt shooting team, but no more than they were last year, if anything maybe a bit less.

[Roger Murdock]

People talking about how losing Horford / Zingus means the lack of bigs will hold them back

I’m thinking the other way. They have the worst bigs in the NBA. They are going to play more minutes to guards and wings than any other team in the NBA.

Their best players are all perimeter guys.

Brown, White, Pritchard, Simons, Houser, Boucher + a few boarderline guards

That’s the core of the rotation. I’d expect their top 5 guys in minutes played to bomb 3s

You make it sound so simple..load on guards and "bomb 3's"

They seriously lack self creation and aren't an inside threat. That makes the 3's much easier to defend. they have just Brown that can atrract defensive attention, collapse the defense etc.

Also, that lineup you outlined will get murdered on the glass on both ends and defending vs. that lineup will be fairly easy and very non-taxing physically, which means their opponents will have extra energy to use on the offensive side of the ball



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They don’t have much of an alternative though

Nobody on their roster is big of physical. 5 of their best players are guards or wings.

They are going to get killed on the glass regardless of who they play

They are going to get killed inside regardless of who they play

Maybe I’m wrong and they will give a decent amount of burn to Garza, Queta, Tillman etc but I doubt it

It’s going to make more sense to play guys like Simmons 30+ minutes a game than it’s going to make sense to play guys like Garza 15 minutes

I bet they way over index on small ball and guard play because they don’t have any other good options.

Their only rotation quality bigs are Hauser and Boucher and they are like 7th men quality guys best utilized around 15-22 mpg. I don’t see 60 minutes/night of big men on their roster to split time at PF/C

Realistically they are going to play like 40 minutes/night of bigs, like 80 mpg for wings, and like a 120 minutes/night of guards

[jscott]

You had me, but then you lost me at “Simmons:”

[tamaraw08]

How's this even possible given they lost two of their spacing bigs?

They can use their current bigs as screeners for their shooters?

Come on. Their 3pt volume was predicated on them being a 5 out team at all times and putting up shots quickly in transition. They're not gonna get that volume playing 4 out lineups. Boucher is their only viable facsimile of a 5 who can shoot.

Sure theoretically any team can spam 3s shamelessly and break this record. I'm saying it's an unlikely outcome for this iteration of the Celtics.

Warriors with non shooting bigs were always top 3 in 3PA's with Draymond Green and Looney/Jackson-Davis as centers.

[UcanUwill]

I’ve never understood the hate with more outside shooting. It’s a game of points. More points wins. The skill set evolving to take advantage of the extra points seems logical. I know watching everyone chuck bad shots isn’t the idea, and a diverse NBA offence would be a good thing, but I think it inherently isn’t a bad trend.

I do not have to watch Boston, so I do not care, but I think they lost Knicks series because of their love for 3. They barely ran anything, how many times they just dribbled the ball pass the court and to just shot contested 3, it was happening all the time in that series and thas just not good offense, anyone can do that. There is a reason offensive systems exist.

It was a frustrating series to watch, its beautiful when the shots are going in, but the inability to adjust when the shots are not going in can drive you crazy. You have to be able to drive and draw fouls to collapse the defense from time to time when the shooting gets cold.
I really have no idea about record breaking 3 pt shooting this season, seems like Simons likes to drive the ball, and the center rotaion certainly wont shoot the volume of 3 pt shots that Porzingis and Horford shot. Boucher will most likely play alot of Tatums missed minutes where i dont see him shooting Tatums 10 attempts per game, probably more around 4 or 5. Personnel dictates style of play in the NBA, Boston is still built as a 3 pt shooting team, but no more than they were last year, if anything maybe a bit less.

There is one thing when you creating shots and it just ain't falling. Obviously all NBA teams run smth, but it legit looked they do not run anything, because Derrick white would jsut dribble, maybe first option pass was not there and he just jacks contested 3 point shot with 14 seconds still on the clock, they did that all through out the series, to a point it looked like the really do not run anything.

Celtics say how hard their training camp is and how many systems they try to run, but we will see how it will go, because dribbling the ball and just jacking a 23 footer with a guy in your face aint offensive system.

I know that in the NBA we had those possessions, where guys just comes and heat checks, but there was way too many of those brainless possessions, you should see it maybe few times per game max, not every other possession.

[homecourtloss]

https://hoopshabit.com/bill-simmons-says-quiet-part-out-loud-about-celtics-secret-weapon

According to Simmons, he expects the Celtics to shoot at least 50 threes per game and even break the single-game 3-point record by attempting at least 70 threes at least once. That might seem far-fetched, but with them having far less talent than last season, they need an equalizer.

Assuming they shoot at least 37% from three on that kind of volume, the math would work out in the Celtics' favor. After all, taking that many threes means they would have to play faster. Moreover, many teams don't even take 40 threes, let alone can afford to get into a shootout with a team that takes far more.

Looking as far back as 22-23 season, Celtics has been leading in attempts and have been at least top 2 in ORTG since then.
The formula seems effective and I wonder why other teams don't try to copy it, yes I am aware it's predicated on the team hitting at least 37%.
It's amazing too that the Suns with KD, Booker, Grayson Allen, Beal were only 25th in attempts from 3 last season.

I’ve never understood the hate with more outside shooting. It’s a game of points. More points wins. The skill set evolving to take advantage of the extra points seems logical. I know watching everyone chuck bad shots isn’t the idea, and a diverse NBA offence would be a good thing, but I think it inherently isn’t a bad trend.

It is an effective way to go about your offense as has been the case over the past 15 years. I don’t see any other way this Boston team with the injuries/departures competes. For the numbers below, OKC last year would be at 106.3. On that note, last year saw some of the lowest correlation between how many threes your take (i.e., 3 point rate) and ORtg.

A quick way to look at things without getting into more granular shot quality, who’s shooting, etc., is to calculate a quick 3P+ which is simply 100*(three-pointers made per 100 possessions/league average three-pointers made per 100 possessions) where a 3P+ of 100 is league average. Only three teams title teams since 2010 have been below 100 and only six below 108.

After the 2015-2017 period, we have seen NBA champions not separate themselves in 3P+ until the Celtics in 2024 posted a near 130 3P+ in a league in which most teams are hunting threes every chance they got.

Spoiler:

Every single champion since 2010 has been top 6 in either three point attempt rate or percentage except for the 2012 Heat and 2020 Lakers, two teams that are close to being technical outliers.

Spoiler:

Three-point % league rank of NBA champions since 2011

2018 Warriors, 1st
2015 Warriors, 1st
2014 Spurs, 1st
2013 Heat, 2nd
2017 Warriors, 3rd
2023 Nuggets, 4th
2021 Bucks, 5th
2019 Raptors 6th
2016 Cavs, 7th
2012 Heat, 9th
2011 Mavs, 11th
2020 Lakers, 21st

Three-point attempt rate league rank of NBA champions since 2011

2024 Celtics, 1st in attempt rate
2022 Warriors, 2nd
2016 Cavs, 3rd
2011 Mavs, 3rd
2013 Heat, 5th
2017 Warriors, 6th
2015 Warriors, 7th
2019 Raptors, 10th
2021 Bucks, 12th
2018 Warriors, 18th
2014 Spurs, 16th
2023 Nuggets, 21st
2012 Heat, 21st
2020 Lakers, 22nd

Three-point attempt rate league rank and three-point % league rank of NBA champions since 2011

2024 Celtics, 1st and 2nd
2023 Nuggets, 21st and 4th
2022 Warriors, 2nd and 9th
2021 Bucks, 12th and 5th
2020 Lakers, 22nd and 21st
2019 Raptors, 10th and 6th
2018 Warrior, 15th and 1st
2017 Warriors, 6th and 3rd
2016 Cavs, 3rd and 6th
2015 Warriors, 7th and 1st
2014 Spurs, 16th and 1st
2013 Heat, 5th and 2nd
2012 Heat, 21st and 9th
2011 Mavs, 3rd and 11th

Every Champion and Finalist from 2011 to 2024

Spoiler:

[Tim_Hardawayy]

I’ve never understood the hate with more outside shooting. It’s a game of points. More points wins. The skill set evolving to take advantage of the extra points seems logical. I know watching everyone chuck bad shots isn’t the idea, and a diverse NBA offence would be a good thing, but I think it inherently isn’t a bad trend.

I'd argue its an aesthetic argument. At the end of the day, whether or not there's millions of dollars on the line (and there is), sports primary reason for existing in the form it does, the reason it generates those millions, is entertainment. And if the overall fanbase finds 3-point chuckfests less entertaining, something will be done at some point, moneyball arguments be damned.

And the thing is, you can argue that you yourself find enjoyment in how the sport is played now (I'd disagree but it is definitely an opinion one can have). But it doesn't matter if the majority find it less enjoyable. I guess the question is how do you really determine that conclusively, but I'd imagine if the NBA is smart they have internal polling that suggests whether fans are enjoying this. And Silver has made tame comments about it, which suggests they're at least aware its a point of discussion and contention amongst some fans.

[HotelVitale]

I’ve never understood the hate with more outside shooting. It’s a game of points. More points wins. The skill set evolving to take advantage of the extra points seems logical. I know watching everyone chuck bad shots isn’t the idea, and a diverse NBA offence would be a good thing, but I think it inherently isn’t a bad trend.

Shooting more threes will improve your offense. The sky-rocketing league offensive rating is conclusive proof this strategy works.

Critics of the strategy aren't disputing that it works. They are arguing that it isn't fun to watch.

There are unfortunately still many people who think it doesn't work, and/or that the NBA is somehow forcing teams to do by changing rules or something. Also many others who don't get that teams aren't just blindly copycatting each other but are making careful strategic decisions and training their teams intensively in it (how to generate these 3s, angles to take off pn'r sets to get the defense to leave shooters open, how to see the court to always spot the open shooter, etc).

I actually don't know that there are that many people who have the nuanced take you're talking about. I also understand that POV and tend to be less alarmist about it, since PO basketball has still been very good and displayed many different strategies/types of ways of being effective. I definitely don't like seeing bad teams chucking back and forth (which happens a lot now), and I've definitely seen plenty of blowouts in games between pretty even teams when one side's randomly hitting shots that day, but I also think bad teams in a given year will generally be pretty unentertaining and I don't romanticize the repetitive strategies of the past.

[Broadcaster]

It seems like the only argument is, “I don’t like watching it,” though. I disagree that the point of a sport is entertainment. I think the point of a sport is the competition of the sport itself. Entertainment is a wonderful and bountiful side product. I think diluting the quality of the sport from being more refined in the name of how watchable it is goes against my fundamental view of sports.

[levon]

They can use their current bigs as screeners for their shooters?

Come on. Their 3pt volume was predicated on them being a 5 out team at all times and putting up shots quickly in transition. They're not gonna get that volume playing 4 out lineups. Boucher is their only viable facsimile of a 5 who can shoot.

Sure theoretically any team can spam 3s shamelessly and break this record. I'm saying it's an unlikely outcome for this iteration of the Celtics.

Warriors with non shooting bigs were always top 3 in 3PA's with Draymond Green and Looney/Jackson-Davis as centers.

So? This is about breaking an all time record. The Bulls were second last year and I don't expect them to break the record.

[redslastlaugh]

I do not have to watch Boston, so I do not care, but I think they lost Knicks series because of their love for 3. They barely ran anything, how many times they just dribbled the ball pass the court and to just shot contested 3, it was happening all the time in that series and thas just not good offense, anyone can do that. There is a reason offensive systems exist.

It was a frustrating series to watch, its beautiful when the shots are going in, but the inability to adjust when the shots are not going in can drive you crazy. You have to be able to drive and draw fouls to collapse the defense from time to time when the shooting gets cold.
I really have no idea about record breaking 3 pt shooting this season, seems like Simons likes to drive the ball, and the center rotaion certainly wont shoot the volume of 3 pt shots that Porzingis and Horford shot. Boucher will most likely play alot of Tatums missed minutes where i dont see him shooting Tatums 10 attempts per game, probably more around 4 or 5. Personnel dictates style of play in the NBA, Boston is still built as a 3 pt shooting team, but no more than they were last year, if anything maybe a bit less.

There is one thing when you creating shots and it just ain't falling. Obviously all NBA teams run smth, but it legit looked they do not run anything, because Derrick white would jsut dribble, maybe first option pass was not there and he just jacks contested 3 point shot with 14 seconds still on the clock, they did that all through out the series, to a point it looked like the really do not run anything.

Celtics say how hard their training camp is and how many systems they try to run, but we will see how it will go, because dribbling the ball and just jacking a 23 footer with a guy in your face aint offensive system.

I know that in the NBA we had those possessions, where guys just comes and heat checks, but there was way too many of those brainless possessions, you should see it maybe few times per game max, not every other possession.

yes, I'm a Celtics fan and it was very frustrating. Over the 2025 playoffs the Celtics were about 15pts better per 100 with Derrick White off the floor. Derrick shot 24.2% on pullup 3's over the playoffs. So those jump-stop, heave a 24-footer no-pass possessions are a likely factor for why the team was better when he wasnt playing

It's such a shame because there is no reason to prioritize those types of shot attempts, and obviously as a fan that wants to see good, winning baskteball it's frustrating