tamaraw08 wrote: I also feel Boston would exceed expectations because of Brown, White and Pritchard and their coach is pretty underrated. Indiana losing Turner would be felt more than Halli's injury IMO because they still have Nembhart and TJ but again, they are so disciplined and organized. Detroit benefitted greatly from Beasley's hot shooting including his 16 pts/game and now they must rely on Ivey to duplicate that. Both Harris and THJ would be a year older and I'm not sure they will be as efficient.
THJ is now a member of the Denver Nuggets, fwiw
And Im not going to lie and say Im a huge fan of JB Bickerstaff. No he is not dumb but he benefited greatly from his players shooting great last season.
The job that Bickerstaff did last year can not be overstated. Not just in the win/loss column, either. He came in and transformed the way the team approaches the game & plays. On both ends of the floor. Yes, Beasley (no one else) had a career year shooting. That doesn't account for the 30-win turnaround. If Casey or Williams had still been coaching the team last year, they'd have been nowhere near the playoffs.
bisme37 wrote: Yeah I think the Celtics don't suck as much as might be expected and will win a good amount of games, especially early in the season until opposing teams figure they still need to bring their A game to beat them.
Then maybe JT comes back late in the year, the C's find an upgrade at center, and voila, it's a tough playoff team again.
JT isn't coming back this season
I saw the reports etc. and everyone wishes him a speedy recovery but the reality is that many (most) players could technically be fit enough to play after several months. the reason for the long hiatus in achilles injuries is because the data is very conclusive regarding further risk of injury as a function of how long (or how little) a player waits before returning from the injury. that's the reason teams hold out players for that long, it has little to do with the time it takes a player to technically be cleared to play or be a 100% physically fit to play NBA basketball following their original injury
JT is a 300+ M investment and is in his prime, there is no way the C's bring him back, especially as they unloaded Jrue,Kp,Horford etc. to shed the huge task bill and don't have a realistic path to contention even with JT this season
I dunno man. I've got a bunch of posters telling me there's no way he's coming back this year, but I've got actual doctors telling me the opposite. For example this one:
(TLDW) - Not unprecedented rehab timeline, slightly early, but it's nothing miraculous/groundbreaking - Got the surgery where instead of just suturing the tendons together, they also add bone anchors in the heel bone to anchor sutures to provide additional support/reinforcement to the tendon which does allow quicker rehab timeline than just regular repair - Could feasibly return within 8-10 months with 8 months out being January
it's true that he did the surgery literally the day after and had a unique procedure at that - that's amazing and very rare. the conclusive data probably doesn't contain many instances where this has happened (if any) so scientifically speaking it's pretty much uncharted territory but..seeing as they won't be playing for much (a first or 2nd rd exit might be nice for a team like the Kings but not for your C's) and the major finanical invsetment - I find it extremely hard to believe
i get that Jt himself is really pushing for it, maybe they do in fact do it, to accomodate him. i suppose it's not out of the realm of possibility but in all honesty, he really shouldn't. let someone else be experimental
there's just too much to lose and not enough to gain, to make such experiments imo and i'm pretty confident the organization is going to feel the same way about it but I guess if he really insists, in this era - who know? so i take it back, there's a non zero chance but I still think it's very low
and again, he could be on the court and be 100% fit to play long before the season ends, the issue is further risk of injury
Warriors at #2 is insane. They won't even be trying for anything close to that. Their season-long goal will be to avoid the playin and get to the playoffs as healthy as possible. Then go all out in the playoffs and see where it takes them. The idea that they'll be trying to win 56 games is nuts.
Duffman100 wrote:my gut says over on the Raptors but **** me, I don't know. We could win 30 games, we could win like 48.
Bet we're a lot closer to 48 than 30. Everyone is weirdly low on Raptors this year and I don't get it. Deep team. Big influx of talent. Young guys that should continue to get better. Diverse skill sets. Weak East...We should be way better than 38.5.
Edit: it feels like media is conflating their dislike of our player contracts and lack of true superstar for the potential of the on court product.
I saw the reports etc. and everyone wishes him a speedy recovery but the reality is that many (most) players could technically be fit enough to play after several months. the reason for the long hiatus in achilles injuries is because the data is very conclusive regarding further risk of injury as a function of how long (or how little) a player waits before returning from the injury. that's the reason teams hold out players for that long, it has little to do with the time it takes a player to technically be cleared to play or be a 100% physically fit to play NBA basketball following their original injury
JT is a 300+ M investment and is in his prime, there is no way the C's bring him back, especially as they unloaded Jrue,Kp,Horford etc. to shed the huge task bill and don't have a realistic path to contention even with JT this season
I dunno man. I've got a bunch of posters telling me there's no way he's coming back this year, but I've got actual doctors telling me the opposite. For example this one:
(TLDW) - Not unprecedented rehab timeline, slightly early, but it's nothing miraculous/groundbreaking - Got the surgery where instead of just suturing the tendons together, they also add bone anchors in the heel bone to anchor sutures to provide additional support/reinforcement to the tendon which does allow quicker rehab timeline than just regular repair - Could feasibly return within 8-10 months with 8 months out being January
it's true that he did the surgery literally the day after and had a unique procedure at that - that's amazing and very rare. the conclusive data probably doesn't contain many instances where this has happened (if any) so scientifically speaking it's pretty much uncharted territory but..seeing as they won't be playing for much (a first or 2nd rd exit might be nice for a team like the Kings but not for your C's) and the major finanical invsetment - I find it extremely hard to believe
i get that Jt himself is really pushing for it, maybe they do in fact do it, to accomodate him. i suppose it's not out of the realm of possibility but in all honesty, he really shouldn't. let someone else be experimental
there's just too much to lose and not enough to gain, to make such experiments imo and i'm pretty confident the organization is going to feel the same way about it but I guess if he really insists, in this era - who know? so i take it back, there's a non zero chance but I still think it's very low
and again, he could be on the court and be 100% fit to play long before the season ends, the issue is further risk of injury
I get the concern. He's my favorite player and I've consumed a lot of info on his specific surgery, treatments and outcomes since he went down. I don't want to "rush him back," but I also don't think that him getting cleared by the medical professionals and coming back this season would constitute "rushing back."
There are some very encouraging differences between Tatum's situation and past Achilles injuries with other players.
- He's 27, not 35, and has an incredible work ethic - He got surgery within just a few hours of getting injured, which is crucial - He got a new type of surgery from the leading Achilles surgeon, Dr Martin O'Malley. They added bone anchors in the heel bone to anchor sutures to provide additional support/reinforcement to the tendon which, allows quicker rehab timeline than just regular repair - He has access to new treatments such as stem cell and growth cell injections that speed the healing process - He was doing double heel-rises at 6 weeks and is already on the court dunking - There really isn't a past case to compare this to
Dr. Martin O’Malley performed the surgery and he was the only physician on a newly released cutting edge paper regarding Achilles rehabilitation.
If we look at the ‘Return to Sport’ in this paper, it lists 24+ weeks, assuming he hits all of his benchmarks of recovery (isokinetic/isometric strength >90% LSI)
That would put the date as October 28, 2025.
Assuming no setbacks I think November/December is possible, but January is probably more realistic.
The future of Achilles reconstructions and returns in (elite) athletes is here!!!
No NBA athlete wants to rupture their Achilles tendon. But Jayson Tatum is in a much better position than most to fully recover from this traumatic injury.
That’s because the 27-year-old Celtics superstar, who ruptured his Achilles in the fourth quarter of Monday’s Game 4 against the Knicks in New York City, underwent a successful surgery at the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) just hours after the injury occurred. According to multiple sources, the surgery was performed by one of the world’s leading Achilles tendon surgeons, Dr. Martin O’Malley, who also operated on Kevin Durant after he ruptured his Achilles. ...
You might expect all NBA players to have endless resources at their disposal, and therefore be able to get an Achilles rupture repaired on a 12-hour turnaround. But, that’s not typically the case.
For context, Damian Lillard ruptured his Achilles on April 27 and underwent surgery on May 2nd. DeMarcus Cousins tore his on a Saturday night and had the surgery on Wednesday. Wesley Mathews tore his Achilles on a Thursday, and had the surgery six days later. Rudy Gay also had to wait five days.
Even Kevin Durant, who often serves as the poster child for what a successful recovery can look like, tore his Achilles on a Monday night and had the surgery performed on Wednesday.
Though these were all high-profile NBA players, it always takes time to put everything together to make the surgery possible, Soslowsky explained.
“Fifty percent of their time, they’re not in their home city, and the choice of which surgeon you’re going to have perform that operation is a conversation between the athlete, the agent, maybe the team, ownership, maybe colleagues or friends of the athlete,” he said. “And once those conversations happen, those conversations take a little bit of time. They don’t happen within the first half hour, right? They begin then, and then, once you settle on the surgeon, depending on what city that surgeon is in, it’s often not in the city that you’re in. So, there’s some time involved there. And then that surgeon may have a clinic day that day, and they may not have an operating day until the next day or two days later.”
Almost miraculously, Tatum just so happened to already be in New York City, where the Celtics faced the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. And, Dr. O’Malley was available.
That reality, coupled with the fact that Tatum is so young — most NBA players who have suffered this injury have been at least 30 years old — puts him in uncharted territory. It also means that the somewhat discouraging data that currently exists regarding players’ decline upon return from an Achilles rupture might not necessarily be applicable in Tatum’s case.
“There’s not a lot of data on recovery from Achilles tear for a 27-year-old at 12 hours post-tear, right?” said Dr. Soslowsky. “There’s no data, really, out there.”
Surgeons universally recommend operative Achilles tendon repair as soon as possible to restore functionality and reduce the risk of re-rupture. But, regular people have to wait days, if not weeks, to go through all the hoops and hurdles of getting a surgery on the books.
“You’re going to get infiltration of biologic agents and cells that will create the beginnings of scar formation,” Soslowsky said. “Because this repair was within a day, those processes had only just begun, and with a surgical pair, the torn ends were put right back together before a lot of these adverse biologic effects occurred. And so the opportunity for a faster recovery really is present.”
I get the concern. He's my favorite player and I've consumed a lot of info on his specific surgery, treatments and outcomes since he went down. I don't want to "rush him back," but I also don't think that him getting cleared by the medical professionals and coming back this season would constitute "rushing back."
There are some very encouraging differences between Tatum's situation and past Achilles injuries with other players.
- He's 27, not 35, and has an incredible work ethic - He got surgery within just a few hours of getting injured, which is crucial - He got a new type of surgery from the leading Achilles surgeon, Dr Martin O'Malley. They added bone anchors in the heel bone to anchor sutures to provide additional support/reinforcement to the tendon which, allows quicker rehab timeline than just regular repair - He has access to new treatments such as stem cell and growth cell injections that speed the healing process - He was doing double heel-rises at 6 weeks and is already on the court dunking - There really isn't a past case to compare this to
Dr. Martin O’Malley performed the surgery and he was the only physician on a newly released cutting edge paper regarding Achilles rehabilitation.
If we look at the ‘Return to Sport’ in this paper, it lists 24+ weeks, assuming he hits all of his benchmarks of recovery (isokinetic/isometric strength >90% LSI)
That would put the date as October 28, 2025.
Assuming no setbacks I think November/December is possible, but January is probably more realistic.
The future of Achilles reconstructions and returns in (elite) athletes is here!!!
No NBA athlete wants to rupture their Achilles tendon. But Jayson Tatum is in a much better position than most to fully recover from this traumatic injury.
That’s because the 27-year-old Celtics superstar, who ruptured his Achilles in the fourth quarter of Monday’s Game 4 against the Knicks in New York City, underwent a successful surgery at the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) just hours after the injury occurred. According to multiple sources, the surgery was performed by one of the world’s leading Achilles tendon surgeons, Dr. Martin O’Malley, who also operated on Kevin Durant after he ruptured his Achilles. ...
You might expect all NBA players to have endless resources at their disposal, and therefore be able to get an Achilles rupture repaired on a 12-hour turnaround. But, that’s not typically the case.
For context, Damian Lillard ruptured his Achilles on April 27 and underwent surgery on May 2nd. DeMarcus Cousins tore his on a Saturday night and had the surgery on Wednesday. Wesley Mathews tore his Achilles on a Thursday, and had the surgery six days later. Rudy Gay also had to wait five days.
Even Kevin Durant, who often serves as the poster child for what a successful recovery can look like, tore his Achilles on a Monday night and had the surgery performed on Wednesday.
Though these were all high-profile NBA players, it always takes time to put everything together to make the surgery possible, Soslowsky explained.
“Fifty percent of their time, they’re not in their home city, and the choice of which surgeon you’re going to have perform that operation is a conversation between the athlete, the agent, maybe the team, ownership, maybe colleagues or friends of the athlete,” he said. “And once those conversations happen, those conversations take a little bit of time. They don’t happen within the first half hour, right? They begin then, and then, once you settle on the surgeon, depending on what city that surgeon is in, it’s often not in the city that you’re in. So, there’s some time involved there. And then that surgeon may have a clinic day that day, and they may not have an operating day until the next day or two days later.”
Almost miraculously, Tatum just so happened to already be in New York City, where the Celtics faced the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. And, Dr. O’Malley was available.
That reality, coupled with the fact that Tatum is so young — most NBA players who have suffered this injury have been at least 30 years old — puts him in uncharted territory. It also means that the somewhat discouraging data that currently exists regarding players’ decline upon return from an Achilles rupture might not necessarily be applicable in Tatum’s case.
“There’s not a lot of data on recovery from Achilles tear for a 27-year-old at 12 hours post-tear, right?” said Dr. Soslowsky. “There’s no data, really, out there.”
Surgeons universally recommend operative Achilles tendon repair as soon as possible to restore functionality and reduce the risk of re-rupture. But, regular people have to wait days, if not weeks, to go through all the hoops and hurdles of getting a surgery on the books.
“You’re going to get infiltration of biologic agents and cells that will create the beginnings of scar formation,” Soslowsky said. “Because this repair was within a day, those processes had only just begun, and with a surgical pair, the torn ends were put right back together before a lot of these adverse biologic effects occurred. And so the opportunity for a faster recovery really is present.”
ur right, there isn't a case like this for all the reasons u outlined. that's why the word "experimental" is very fitting
we've never had guys his age and all the other paramaters u outlined but still it just still be a guess. meaning, it would be to experiment and assume, that all these factors should in theory lead to him being able to return sooner without increasing the risk of further injuries and i kinda doubt the org would want to experiment with something like that when there isn't anything to really gain from it
i mean, science would gain and other future players would gain but for JT and the C's there just isn't much to gain. with that said,if he's adamant he wants to come back sooner, with his status and standing it'd be very hard in this day and age for the C's to deny him so perhaps we will see him this season after all
xdrta+ wrote:Warriors at #2 is insane. They won't even be trying for anything close to that. Their season-long goal will be to avoid the playin and get to the playoffs as healthy as possible. Then go all out in the playoffs and see where it takes them. The idea that they'll be trying to win 56 games is nuts.
It's understandable why his model won't pick this up though. His only semi-subjective input is assumed time missed based on injuries last 3 years. Also I don't think his injury projections account for players missing games at the same time which is another hit on the Warriors.
If you ignore how old the Warriors are, it's not insane to have them that high, especially if you take into account the injury limitation above.
Pelton's slightly different and some hot takes like GSW getting 2nd Spot in the West winning 56 games. TWolves finishing 8th spot at just 43.7 wins With the Grizz losing Bane slightly better at 44.6 Also Clips at 4th place at 49.7, better than the Lakers projected at 45.8 at 6th place. I sense that he is not bothered by the older ages of core players from GSW and Clippers. At the same time he's down with young teams like the Spurs projected only at 40.1 wins
My hot take is that the Sixers will exceed both expectations of Pelton's 38.4 and ESPN's 42.5. What's yours?
See the Kings are prepping for their annual appearance in the Vivek Invitational.
GS at #2 is stupid. They won't stay healthy enough and Draymond looks pretty cooked. Horford will make some of that up and Curry might have his best scoring year ever with the awful new high-five rule... but still, I think they're a mid-40s win team. Too old and outside of Curry, almost every guy they have is injury prone.
Kings are also stupid high. I think they're probably the #12 team with Portland (11) and Spurs (10) both moving up spots.
Exp0sed wrote: THJ is now a member of the Denver Nuggets, fwiw
And Im not going to lie and say Im a huge fan of JB Bickerstaff. No he is not dumb but he benefited greatly from his players shooting great last season.
The job that Bickerstaff did last year can not be overstated. Not just in the win/loss column, either. He came in and transformed the way the team approaches the game & plays. On both ends of the floor. Yes, Beasley (no one else) had a career year shooting. That doesn't account for the 30-win turnaround. If Casey or Williams had still been coaching the team last year, they'd have been nowhere near the playoffs.
no one else? Cunningham had career highs in pts (26) assists(9.1)m 3pt%, FG%, rebs etc etc. Ivey also had career highs in pts, 3pt, FG% until he got hurt after 30 games.
Regarding approach to the game, It's a lot easier to change it when you have 3 incoming veterans (combined for 51pts/game) who played major minutes determined to prove their worth and at the same time get better offers in the future. Again, I am not saying JB is a dumb tactician, Of course he made valuable contributions for this team esp with the growth of Cade but the impact of 3 veterans playing hard and with very productive contributions are very hard for me to ignore. Let's agree to disagree on this, probably I still have PTSD from watching him coach Houston and Cleveland before.
JujitsuFlip wrote:What is this, 1972? The East will have more than one team win 50 games...
with key injuries of Boston, Bucks, Indiana PLUS Nets and Washington probably tanking again and ineptitude of Charlotte, Miami losing their Allstar had a lot to do with it.
Clippers are an EASY over. 54-56 wins unless catastrophic injuries up and down the roster. They are one of the most stacked teams of all time. I don’t think people know how big of an upgrade Collins, Lopez, CP3, Beal are over KPJ, Powell, Simmons, Bamba, Eubanks is.
They won 50 last year with Kawhi being out all but 37 games and not playing until January. There is zero chance they win under 52 unless you have Kawhi, Harden, Zubac all blow their Achilles.
“This kid reminds me of a 6-6 Chris Paul. He wants to win everything.”
Golden St. above Denver, Houston, and Minnesota is nuts to me. I also dont see Orlando having a better record than New York. I think Cleveland and New York are clearly the class of the East while OKC and Denver are the class of the West. I think all four of those teams win 55+ games.
MavsDirk41 wrote:Golden St. above Denver, Houston, and Minnesota is nuts to me. I also dont see Orlando having a better record than New York. I think Cleveland and New York are clearly the class of the East while OKC and Denver are the class of the West. I think all four of those teams win 55+ games.
For sure. I wish I could bet on the ESPN numbers instead of the Vegas numbers.
tamaraw08 wrote:And Im not going to lie and say Im a huge fan of JB Bickerstaff. No he is not dumb but he benefited greatly from his players shooting great last season.
The job that Bickerstaff did last year can not be overstated. Not just in the win/loss column, either. He came in and transformed the way the team approaches the game & plays. On both ends of the floor. Yes, Beasley (no one else) had a career year shooting. That doesn't account for the 30-win turnaround. If Casey or Williams had still been coaching the team last year, they'd have been nowhere near the playoffs.
no one else? Cunningham had career highs in pts (26) assists(9.1)m 3pt%, FG%, rebs etc etc. Ivey also had career highs in pts, 3pt, FG% until he got hurt after 30 games.
Regarding approach to the game, It's a lot easier to change it when you have 3 incoming veterans (combined for 51pts/game) who played major minutes determined to prove their worth and at the same time get better offers in the future. Again, I am not saying JB is a dumb tactician, Of course he made valuable contributions for this team esp with the growth of Cade but the impact of 3 veterans playing hard and with very productive contributions are very hard for me to ignore. Let's agree to disagree on this, probably I still have PTSD from watching him coach Houston and Cleveland before.
yeah, I don't think JB was responsible for much of that. it just seems that way, he isn't a good coach
Pelton's slightly different and some hot takes like TWolves finishing 8th spot at just 43.7 wins
Minnesota will be closer to 60 wins than they are to having a .500 record, I believe.
Pelton says "health" is a reason for being so wrong on the Timberwolves last year, but really I think it's noteworthy that this team has built up a culture of playing through nicks and bruises when other teams force many of their players to take rest days when they otherwise are healthy enough to play.
Anthony Edwards has played 381 of 400 career games (95%). Naz Reid has played 390 of 414 games since inserted in the rotation at 2020 trade deadline (94%). Jaden McDaniels has played 341 of 369 games since the coaching change (92%).
That's 75 to 78 games played each year for three of our core players, so yeah I don't think missing on "health" is a valid excuse.
In the first 20 games of the season, Minnesota plays.... 8 games against 2024-25 teams with winning records 5 games against sub-30 win teams from 2024-25 2 games against the Lakers (no LeBron)
They really have an opportunity to get out in front, using their roster continuity to their advantage.
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
