Sedale Threatt wrote:"If you notice in the article, the attendance figure used is what was averaged here in NOLA before Katrina. Shinn is just asking that we support him like we did before Katrina hit."
This is the whole rub.
How, with the city's general population down substantially, and the economic climate being severely depressed, is this going to happen?
Almost by rule, it's virtually impossible to do more, or even the same, with less, especially when you're dealing with expendable income in a region only just starting to recover from one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history.
Personally, I would hate to see New Orleans lose the Hornets, just as I hated to see Charlotte lose the Hornets. I want to see them do well, and I want to see the city of New Orleans flourish. I commend Shinn for apparently doing what he can to make it happen by agreeing to the extended lease and lowering ticket prices.
It's just hard to imagine, when you look at those attendance figures, and recognize the plight the city is in, how they're going to be able to support the Hornets for very much longer. Although I appreciate the thought and insight their die-hard fans have provided on this thread, I haven't read anything that makes me believe otherwise.
I definitely don't think the buyout will be an impediment. According to one of the articles posted, $60 million of that would go towards buying out a minority partner.
Shinn would be able to recoup all that money, if not make a hefty profit, if the team were to move to a new area and he wished to resell the portion to a new partner. Or he could simply keep it and reap a larger share of the revenue. Either way, his purchase retains value.
Which really means that Shinn would only be forced to pay out $30 or $40 million -- a relatively small price to pay in the grand scheme of a major business if it means avoiding long-term losses.
So it basically comes down to what it always did -- if the Hornets can put enough butts in the seat, they'll stay. If they can't, they won't.
I am hoping like crazy they succeed. But again, even after reading everything in this thread, including the links, it seems pretty grim from this vantage point. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed that I'm wrong.
You got the gist of it, I'll just add a couple things:
-Shinn would have to pay back $30M to New Orleans, he would then have to deal with the roughly $30-35M that is the NBA's relocation fee (subject to change). I know many of you think OKC or whomever else would throw that money around like life is one big game of Monopoly, but it isn't as simple as that. OKC is already getting a little antsy about the potential Sonics move now that all the costs involved are taking on more concrete figures.
-The Chouest buyout ($62M) could be problematic depending on when payment was to be made. If the terms require a buyout prior to moving, it might not be so easy. Not to mention, if Shinn does this and moves on, with his history, he isn't exactly going to have people lining up to partner up with him after [what would be] 2 failed minority partnerships. Not only that, but he has made it abundantly clear that he has no intention of releasing control of the majority. At that point, would he be someone you'd want to deal with? Probably not.
-I've read/heard that the general estimation is that for every 1 person that leaves the New Orleans area, 5,000+ are returning. So the populace is definitely returing.
-As I've stated a couple of times, over 250,000 people in the [middle-class] areas surrounding have little-to-no means of catching Hornets game. Can't get them on TV, and whether or not you can actually get the radio broadcast signal is a toss-up. I know of people who live 5 minutes away from the arena and they still can't get the signal in their house. Once this deal gets hashed out, I personally think that it'll go a long way to attracting the "casual fan" back.
Some see this as an extension, others an ultimatum. Others see it for what it is: support the team and nothing else matters. Optimists and pessimists alike.