Magic Number Thread

Tom Baker · Post #1 » by **Tom Baker** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:49 am

Okay. I started this last year on the Raptors board, but thought I'd throw it out here this year as well in case anyone finds it useful.

I'm a lot busier this year, so I'll try to update regularly, but may not be able to manage it everyday.

Here are some quick explanations first.

1) Clinching vs. Elimination Magic Numbers

For example, if Atlanta is in 8th and NJ in 9th, then the number shown for Atlanta (the higher team) is the Clinching Magic Number. When that hits 0 (or 1, possibly, see below), then Atlanta will have clinched the 8th seed.

Same example, the number shown for New Jersey is the Elimination Magic Number. When that hits 0 (or 1, possibly), then NJ is eliminated and cannot finish as high as the 8th seed.

For simple reading, I'll always post the Clinching Magic Numbers in bold.

2) Tie-breakers

Tie-breakers are NOT included in these Magic Numbers. I do this because I don't have time to start tracking every single tie-breaker between every pair of teams in each conference, plus 3-team, 4-team, etc. tie-breaker scenarios should more than 2 teams end up with identical records.

So, here's how you should read the Magic Numbers. (Legend shown for Elimination Magic Numbers. Clinching Magic Numbers would be along the same guidelines.)

Elimination Magic Number of :

2+ means the team is still alive and can still overtake the team in the lead;

1 means that the teams can still finish in a tie at the end of the year, so tie-breakers come into play; if you know the higher-ranked team holds the tie-breaker, then the lower team is eliminated... otherwise, the lower-ranked team is still alive;

0 (or lower) means the team is done... toast... eliminated... voted off the island.

Or, in summary:

2+ = still alive

1 = maybe still alive

0 = flatline

_______________________________

And that's it. So, without further ado, see the next post for the first batch of numbers.

Tom Baker · Post #2 » by **Tom Baker** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:49 am

Note: If a higher seed is not listed, it's because they've already clinched. If a lower seed is not listed, it's because they've already been eliminated.

MAGIC NUMBERS, including games played March 30th, 2008

EASTERN CONFERENCE

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not):

Washington 2
Toronto 3
Philly 3
Atlanta 7
New Jersey 7
Indy 7
Chicago 6
Charlotte 5
Milwaukee 2

At least 7th seed

Cleveland 2
Washington 5
Toronto 6
Philly 6
Atlanta 6
New Jersey 3
Indy 3
Chicago 2
Charlotte 1

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 5
Washington 8
Toronto 9
Philly 9
Atlanta 6
New Jersey 3
Indy 3
Chicago 2
Charlotte 1

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 6
Washington 9
Toronto 9
Philly 8
Atlanta 5
New Jersey 2
Indy 2
Chicago 1

At least 4th seed

Orlando 1
Cleveland 7
Washington 7
Toronto 6
Philly 5
Atlanta 2

At least 3rd seed

Orlando 3
Cleveland 3
Washington 1

At least 2nd seed

Detroit 4
Orlando 4

1st seed

Boston 4
Detroit 4

WESTERN CONFERENCE

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not):

New Orleans 5
San Antonio 4
Lakers 5
Utah 7
Phoenix 6
Houston 6
Dallas 10
Denver 10
Golden State 10
Portland 2

At least 7th seed:

New Orleans 5
San Antonio 4
Lakers 5
Utah 7
Phoenix 6
Houston 6
Dallas 10
Denver 10
Golden State 10
Portland 2

At least 6th seed:

New Orleans 5
San Antonio 4
Lakers 5
Utah 7
Phoenix 6
Houston 6
Dallas 6
Denver 6
Golden State 6

At least 5th seed:

New Orleans 9
San Antonio 8
Lakers 9
Utah 11
Phoenix 10
Houston 10
Dallas 6
Denver 6
Golden State 6

At least 4th seed:

New Orleans 9
San Antonio 8
Lakers 9
Utah 11
Phoenix 11
Houston 11
Dallas 7
Denver 7
Golden State 7

At least 3rd seed:

New Orleans 7
San Antonio 6
Lakers 7
Utah 7
Phoenix 9
Houston 9
Dallas 5
Denver 5
Golden State 5

At least 2nd seed:

New Orleans 9
San Antonio 8
Lakers 8
Utah 6
Phoenix 8
Houston 8
Dallas 4
Denver 4
Golden State 4

1st seed:

New Orleans 10
San Antonio 10
Lakers 9
Utah 7
Phoenix 9
Houston 9
Dallas 5
Denver 5
Golden State 5

MalReyn · Post #3 » by **MalReyn** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 12:33 pm

What stuns me is 9 teams are still technically alive for the West #1 seed.... that's crazy.

Post #4 » by **Optimism Prime** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 3:50 pm

MalReyn wrote:What stuns me is 9 teams are still technically alive for the West #1 seed.... that's crazy.

Yeah. No one's even clinched a spot yet.

Post #5 » by **Schad** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 4:58 pm

For those few who actually care about the race for the 5th-7th seeds in the Eastern Conference (ie., people born in Philadelphia or D.C.), with the tiebreakers figured in:

-Washington needs a combination of eight wins/Toronto losses and seven wins/Philly losses (with one of those losses coming in the head-to-head game) to take at least 5th.

-Toronto needs a combination of eight wins/Philly losses to clinch 6th.

carrottop12 · Post #6 » by **carrottop12** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 5:26 pm

The Jazz need a combination of 6 wins/Golden State Losses to lock up a playoff spot. This is currently their best odds of making the playoffs. After tonight however with a Jazz win and Denver loss the Jazz could have a magic number of 5.

Tom Baker · Post #7 » by **Tom Baker** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:36 pm

Batronuj wrote:The Jazz need a combination of 6 wins/Golden State Losses to lock up a playoff spot. This is currently their best odds of making the playoffs. After tonight however with a Jazz win and Denver loss the Jazz could have a magic number of 5.

Just to be clear, did you mean Denver?

Tom Baker · Post #8 » by **Tom Baker** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:37 pm

Optimism Prime wrote:
MalReyn wrote:What stuns me is 9 teams are still technically alive for the West #1 seed.... that's crazy.

Yeah. No one's even clinched a spot yet.

That's what hit me first too. The numbers are kinda freaky. Weird stuff in the West this year.

carrottop12 · Post #9 » by **carrottop12** » Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:39 pm

Tom Baker wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Just to be clear, did you mean Denver?

Nope. Jazz's Magic number is 7 against Denver.

If the Jazz magic number reaches 0 with either Dallas, Denver or the Warriors they will make the playoffs because that would mean neither of those teams could overtake the Jazz by the end of the season ensuring them an 8th spot.

Tom Baker · Post #10 » by **Tom Baker** » Tue Apr 1, 2008 2:16 am

Batronuj wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Nope. Jazz's Magic number is 7 against Denver.

If the Jazz magic number reaches 0 with either Dallas, Denver or the Warriors they will make the playoffs because that would mean neither of those teams could overtake the Jazz by the end of the season ensuring them an 8th spot.

Okay. Now I see where you're going. Obviously, clinching over Denver is the best, though, because it locks Utah into at least 4th seed.

But you're talking about 8th seed.

Post #11 » by **Schad** » Tue Apr 1, 2008 2:19 am

Tom Baker wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

That's what hit me first too. The numbers are kinda freaky. Weird stuff in the West this year.

Not only that...no one is even that close to clinching. Three or four games minimum, with ten or less to go. That's unheard of.

carrottop12 · Post #12 » by **carrottop12** » Tue Apr 1, 2008 5:07 am

Jazz magic number is down to 5 with the Jazz win and the Denver loss tonight.

Is it possible for the Jazz to clinch the first playoff spot in the West, and still only have the 4th or 5th best record?

Tom Baker · Post #13 » by **Tom Baker** » Tue Apr 1, 2008 11:13 am

Batronuj wrote:Jazz magic number is down to 5 with the Jazz win and the Denver loss tonight.

Is it possible for the Jazz to clinch the first playoff spot in the West, and still only have the 4th or 5th best record?

Sure it is, Elimination Magic Number is still 9. Problem is, the top-9 teams are winning so much, that 9 is still dangerous considering the top teams have between 7 and 10 games left.

But yeah, it's still possible. Heck, it's still possible for Denver/GS/Dallas on paper.

Tom Baker · Post #14 » by **Tom Baker** » Tue Apr 1, 2008 12:15 pm

Note: If a higher seed is not listed, it's because they've already clinched. If a lower seed is not listed, it's because they've already been eliminated.

MAGIC NUMBERS, including games played March 31st, 2008

EASTERN CONFERENCE

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not):

Washington 2
Toronto 2
Philly 3
Atlanta 6
New Jersey 6
Indy 6
Chicago 5
Charlotte 3
Milwaukee 1

At least 7th seed

Cleveland 2
Washington 5
Toronto 5
Philly 6
Atlanta 6
New Jersey 3
Indy 3
Chicago 2
Charlotte 0 (eliminated)

At least 6th seed

Cleveland 5
Washington 8
Toronto 8
Philly 8
Atlanta 5
New Jersey 2
Indy 2
Chicago 1
Charlotte 0 (eliminated)

At least 5th seed

Cleveland 6
Washington 9
Toronto 9
Philly 8
Atlanta 5
New Jersey 2
Indy 2
Chicago 1

At least 4th seed

Orlando 0 (clinched)
Cleveland 6
Washington 6
Toronto 6
Philly 5
Atlanta 2

At least 3rd seed

Orlando 3
Cleveland 3
Washington 0 (eliminated)

At least 2nd seed

Detroit 4
Orlando 4

1st seed

Boston 4
Detroit 4

WESTERN CONFERENCE

At least 8th seed (in other words, will they make the playoffs or not):

New Orleans 4
San Antonio 3
Lakers 4
Utah 5
Phoenix 4
Houston 5
Dallas 8
Golden State 9
Denver 9
Portland 2

At least 7th seed:

New Orleans 5
San Antonio 4
Lakers 5
Utah 6
Phoenix 5
Houston 6
Dallas 9
Golden State 9
Denver 8
Portland 1

At least 6th seed:

New Orleans 5
San Antonio 4
Lakers 5
Utah 6
Phoenix 5
Houston 6
Dallas 6
Golden State 6
Denver 5

At least 5th seed:

New Orleans 9
San Antonio 8
Lakers 9
Utah 10
Phoenix 9
Houston 9
Dallas 5
Golden State 5
Denver 4

At least 4th seed:

New Orleans 9
San Antonio 8
Lakers 9
Utah 10
Phoenix 10
Houston 10
Dallas 6
Golden State 6
Denver 5

At least 3rd seed:

New Orleans 7
San Antonio 6
Lakers 7
Utah 7
Phoenix 9
Houston 9
Dallas 5
Golden State 5
Denver 4

At least 2nd seed:

New Orleans 9
San Antonio 8
Lakers 8
Utah 6
Phoenix 8
Houston 8
Dallas 4
Golden State 4
Denver 3

1st seed:

New Orleans 10
San Antonio 10
Lakers 9
Utah 7
Phoenix 9
Houston 9
Dallas 5
Golden State 5
Denver 4

Tom Baker · Post #15 » by **Tom Baker** » Wed Apr 2, 2008 11:52 am

Notice: This thread hasn't been very popular here, so I'm shutting this copy down.

If anyone still wants to follow these numbers, the main thread is still running in the sticky section of the Raptors board at the following link: http://www4.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=776618

Cheers.