2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (III)

Johnny Firpo · Post #361 » by **Johnny Firpo** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 11:43 am

I think it's mental if anything, I mean the freethrows. Or maybe a combination, but yeah, not worried, he's gonna be an 80%+ guy for his career.

gh123 · Post #362 » by **gh123** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 12:04 pm

He always misses the first free throw, always, 100% of the time. And it's not like he rushes it, I really don't know wtf is wrong with him. It's incredibly frustrating to watch your main player brick free throws non-stop, especially after watching Dirk hit like 89% of those and 99% in the playoffs.

Pachinko_ · Post #363 » by **Pachinko_** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 12:14 pm

This Mavs FO was one of the most impressive things I've seen in the NBA in a very long time. "We found our franchise player and we're gonna build around him", if I had a dollar every time some GM said those words I'd be rich sort of thing. They all say it. The Mavs didn't just say it but they actually meant it and then acted on it in the blink of an eye. This is our guy, chuck all the previous plans in the bin, sell the farm, mortgage everything, bet it all. No BS.

I hope Luka has good mentors at this stage in his life. It's obvious that all that is because of him and now everything depends on him. It can be overwhelming for men at the peak of the careers, never mind a friggin teenager. He is incredibly lucky but at the same time it can also be too much.

Archx · Post #364 » by **Archx** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 1:23 pm

Johnny Firpo wrote:I think it's mental if anything, I mean the freethrows. Or maybe a combination, but yeah, not worried, he's gonna be an 80%+ guy for his career.

Also watch his hand when he releases the ball. Sometimes it is in a high arc and other times it looks very flat. You can see how he rotates his hand and it's not a normal follow through like when you shoot a normal shot. He kinda just chucks it up. He'll need to learn with practice to just stick with one motion and do the same release every time.

SlovenianDragon · Post #365 » by **SlovenianDragon** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 1:29 pm

Watch on YouTube

juanc · Post #366 » by **juanc** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 4:43 pm

SlovenianDragon wrote:

Watch on YouTube

Bender the best PG in Phoenix

Buzzard · Post #367 » by **Buzzard** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 4:50 pm

leolozon wrote:Doncic's FTs are becoming a real problem. I thought it was just temporary, but it's been over a month of bad FT shooting now. He was shooting .801 last year and .819 the year before. You can't regress that much.

2 assists in a game, I didn't think I would still see that.

Doncic's ( and Trae's ) shooting was the biggest thing I questioned. .309 from 3 in Europe last season with the big league; which is closer than in the NBA. I did not question his handles or passing; and he has great size for 3 positions PG, SG, SF.

His ultimate ceiling will be based on his shooting; same as Trae.

enigmatics · Post #368 » by **enigmatics** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 5:23 pm

Buzzard wrote:
leolozon wrote:Doncic's FTs are becoming a real problem. I thought it was just temporary, but it's been over a month of bad FT shooting now. He was shooting .801 last year and .819 the year before. You can't regress that much.

2 assists in a game, I didn't think I would still see that.

Doncic's ( and Trae's ) shooting was the biggest thing I questioned. .309 from 3 in Europe last season with the big league; which is closer than in the NBA. I did not question his handles or passing; and he has great size for 3 positions PG, SG, SF.

His ultimate ceiling will be based on his shooting; same as Trae.

Won't be long before Luka's 3pt shot percentage drips down to the 29-31 range. His shot doesn't warrant his usage, I'm sorry it just doesn't.

Johnny Firpo · Post #369 » by **Johnny Firpo** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 5:34 pm

enigmatics wrote:Won't be long before Luka's 3pt shot percentage drips down to the 29-31 range. His shot doesn't warrant his usage, I'm sorry it just doesn't.

You'd like that, wouldn't you? Pretty sure if you take out all the heaves, he is around 37% for the season, and btw, that was the case last year as well, to a lesser degree. He basically takes two three point heaves in most games, that's a crapton of low percentage shots that brings down his overall %. He is not an elite shooter, but a very good one. It's clear btw that you don't watch the kid shooting the ball a lot, because even questioning that shot and especially its future legitimacy is just pure silliness. A large percentage of his makes is nothing but net, perfect form, quick release and a high arc, spotting up, step backs, he can make all and any kind of threes. All the details are there for you to know that he will be a career 37%+ three point shooter at the very least, and possibly higher than that.

LukaMagic · Post #370 » by **LukaMagic** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 5:38 pm

How about watching games and not just staring at the stat sheet? Luka doesn't care about shooting %, he is hoisting last second shots multiple times a game.. Yes, his shooting lately hasn't been as stellar as it was at the beginning of the season, but it is not that bad either. His FT's worry me a bit, though.

enigmatics · Post #371 » by **enigmatics** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 5:52 pm

Johnny Firpo wrote:You'd like that, wouldn't you? Pretty sure if you take out all the heaves, he is around 37% for the season, and btw, that was the case last year as well, to a lesser degree. He basically takes two three point heaves in most games, that's a crapton of low percentage shots that brings down his overall %. He is not an elite shooter, but a very good one. It's clear btw that you don't watch the kid shooting the ball a lot, because even questioning that shot and especially its future legitimacy is just pure silliness. A large percentage of his makes is nothing but net, perfect form, quick release and a high arc, spotting up, step backs, he can make all and any kind of threes. All the details are there for you to know that he will be a career 37%+ three point shooter at the very least, and possibly higher than that.

When your 3pt shot starts the first month of the season above 40% and unravels down to 34% the reality starts to settle in. Not to mention he's averaging damn near 7 attempts game with that number steadily increasing. It's not efficient, it's not his game, and has never been his game. Then you add in the free throw problems on top of it.

Luckily for him his usage rates is off the mother loving charts and his developing "clutch" gene certainly masks the deficiencies.

enigmatics · Post #372 » by **enigmatics** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 5:55 pm

LukaMagic wrote:How about watching games and not just staring at the stat sheet? Luka doesn't care about shooting %, he is hoisting last second shots multiple times a game.. Yes, his shooting lately hasn't been as stellar as it was at the beginning of the season, but it is not that bad either. His FT's worry me a bit, though.

I watch the games man, not all of them, but I do watch.

For a kid who lives off of a reputation for getting to the hoop, it's quite interesting that he's shooting jumpers at almost a 5:1 clip compared to layups.

islanders11040 · Post #373 » by **islanders11040** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 6:34 pm

Read on Twitter

Bob8 · Post #374 » by **Bob8** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 7:12 pm

For everyone, who is worried how Luka is playing. 15th in ORPM. Might I add that his ORPM and WINS is higher and higher every week.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM

and he’s for the first time in top40 of RPM too.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm

@enigmatics To save you some time, Ayton is in 244th position with - 1.11.

LukaV · Post #375 » by **LukaV** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 7:31 pm

Finally a decent shooting game from Luka. Hope it starts an upward trend. Other than that, he's been playing really well. Can't wait to see his play next season after he has a full offseason to rest, work on his body and train with the team!

leolozon · Post #376 » by **leolozon** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 7:54 pm

enigmatics wrote:
LukaMagic wrote:How about watching games and not just staring at the stat sheet? Luka doesn't care about shooting %, he is hoisting last second shots multiple times a game.. Yes, his shooting lately hasn't been as stellar as it was at the beginning of the season, but it is not that bad either. His FT's worry me a bit, though.

I watch the games man, not all of them, but I do watch.

For a kid who lives off of a reputation for getting to the hoop, it's quite interesting that he's shooting jumpers at almost a 5:1 clip compared to layups.

1- What reputation are you talking about?

2- Which perimeter player who shoots 3s has much more than 20% of his shots at the rim?

Irving is at .236 and one of the reason is that he avoids contact : 3.6 FTA vs 6.3 FTA for Luka.

You are being irrational.

And like it has been said, I don't have the numbers, but if you took out Luka's last second "shots", he would go from a 35% to a 37% 3pt shooter (if he had 18 such shots this year, which I think must be close). Not bad for a rookie who creates most of his shots.

enigmatics · Post #377 » by **enigmatics** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 8:24 pm

Bob8 wrote:For everyone, who is worried how Luka is playing. 15th in ORPM. Might I add that his ORPM and WINS is higher and higher every week.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM

and he’s for the first time in top40 of RPM too.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm

@enigmatics To save you some time, Ayton is in 244th position with - 1.11.

I'm not clamoring for an Ayton ROTY award. He's still got work to do, not to mention plays on a horribly constructed team.

Johnny Firpo · Post #378 » by **Johnny Firpo** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 8:29 pm

enigmatics wrote:
Johnny Firpo wrote:You'd like that, wouldn't you? Pretty sure if you take out all the heaves, he is around 37% for the season, and btw, that was the case last year as well, to a lesser degree. He basically takes two three point heaves in most games, that's a crapton of low percentage shots that brings down his overall %. He is not an elite shooter, but a very good one. It's clear btw that you don't watch the kid shooting the ball a lot, because even questioning that shot and especially its future legitimacy is just pure silliness. A large percentage of his makes is nothing but net, perfect form, quick release and a high arc, spotting up, step backs, he can make all and any kind of threes. All the details are there for you to know that he will be a career 37%+ three point shooter at the very least, and possibly higher than that.

When your 3pt shot starts the first month of the season above 40% and unravels down to 34% the reality starts to settle in. Not to mention he's averaging damn near 7 attempts game with that number steadily increasing. It's not efficient, it's not his game, and has never been his game. Then you add in the free throw problems on top of it.

Luckily for him his usage rates is off the mother loving charts and his developing "clutch" gene certainly masks the deficiencies.

He was at 37% in November, and 36.5 in December. He'll be fine, he is a very good shooter, or at least going to be.

enigmatics · Post #379 » by **enigmatics** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 8:37 pm

leolozon wrote:1- What reputation are you talking about?

2- Which perimeter player who shoots 3s has much more than 20% of his shots at the rim?

Irving is at .236 and one of the reason is that he avoids contact : 3.6 FTA vs 6.3 FTA for Luka.

You are being irrational.

And like it has been said, I don't have the numbers, but if you took out Luka's last second "shots", he would go from a 35% to a 37% 3pt shooter (if he had 18 such shots this year, which I think must be close). Not bad for a rookie who creates most of his shots.

The bolded is all I really care about and illustrates the fundamental problem here. I don't view him as a perimeter player - more like a high volume guy bordering "chucker" if his attempts continue to increase and 3pt shot continues to fall off the way it has since the season began.

Based on what I've he operates far more efficiently within 16ft. I mean c'mon he's averaging 38% with his jumpers and 34% from 3pt range. That's not a natural perimeter player we're talking about. Steph Curry IS a perimeter player averaging 45% jumpers and 49% 3's. In fact Doncic's jumper #'s closely mirror LeBrons - would you call him a perimeter player?

I'm not going to sit here and say Doncic is an abysmal shooter. In some ways, based on his usage I see him as a more refined version of Westbrook.

Bob8 · Post #380 » by **Bob8** » Sat Feb 9, 2019 8:42 pm

enigmatics wrote:
Bob8 wrote:For everyone, who is worried how Luka is playing. 15th in ORPM. Might I add that his ORPM and WINS is higher and higher every week.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM

and he’s for the first time in top40 of RPM too.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm

@enigmatics To save you some time, Ayton is in 244th position with - 1.11.

I'm not clamoring for an Ayton ROTY award. He's still got work to do, not to mention plays on a horribly constructed team.

You don’t need to be top 15 offensive player to win ROTY. Do you even understand, what would meant, if he was, with everything else he’s doing, shooting for 3 over 40% in a big volume with 19 years? Shooting numbers going up with years by almost everyone. And he’s taking a lot of unassisted, pull-ups/stepbacks in last moments. I believe it’s reasonable to believe he will improve his game in next years, don’t you?