Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...)

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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#101 » by Rapcity_11 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:30 pm

coldgrip1 wrote:Funny everyone praises James the 2nd coming of god Harden as an ultra efficient scorer playing reduced 6th man minutes and having a career year, shooting at a blistering 47%.

Meanwhile, Ellis shoots a much higher volume and gets double and triple teamed nightly, does 47% for HIS CAREER, and people say he's an inefficient chucker.


Stop embarassing yourself.

TS%:
Harden 64.6%
Ellis 51.4%

Ortg:
Harden 127
Ellis 100

Harden is ultra-efficient and Ellis is extremely innefficient. The gap is HUGE.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#102 » by dice » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:31 pm

ChicagoStrong wrote:
betta1 wrote:
dice wrote:and while we're at it...

josh smith poor offensively, average rebounder, strong defensive presence...add it all up, you've got yourself a mediocre all-around player. no all-star for you!


Uh, what?

Deng averages 0.4 more ppg than Smith on less than 44% FG% to Smith's 47%.

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/josh_smith/

http://www.nba.com/playerfile/luol_deng/

Deng making it to the ASG is the equivalent of Mo Williams making it when Lebron was in CLE. Just riding the alpha's coattails.


Deng is more efficient than Smith

Luol: .509 TS%
Smith: .497 TS%

lu's efficiency was better last year as well, particularly given that PFs typically have higher %s than SFs

lu's an excellent teammate as well, if that counts for anything. i'm pretty sure the same cannot be said of josh smith
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#103 » by Rapcity_11 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:34 pm

betta1 wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
betta1 wrote:All you need to do is think about it this way: switch out Deng for Smith on the Hawks and they probably are lottery bound. Switch out Smith for Deng on the Bulls and Miami is sleeping a lot less at night.


No, both teams get worse. Removing Deng would leave a massive hole at the 3 for the Bulls.


Actually, Smith plays the 3 often. Hawks beat the Magic last year in the playoffs with Smith starting at SF.


According to 82 games he played 11% of the Hawks minutes at SF last year. 0% this year.

He plays primarily PF and is best there. There's no reason to try and spin that.

Deng and Smith are both better off where they are.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#104 » by SDtotheBay » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:41 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
coldgrip1 wrote:Funny everyone praises James the 2nd coming of god Harden as an ultra efficient scorer playing reduced 6th man minutes and having a career year, shooting at a blistering 47%.

Meanwhile, Ellis shoots a much higher volume and gets double and triple teamed nightly, does 47% for HIS CAREER, and people say he's an inefficient chucker.


Stop embarassing yourself.

TS%:
Harden 64.6%
Ellis 51.4%

Ortg:
Harden 127
Ellis 100

Harden is ultra-efficient and Ellis is extremely innefficient. The gap is HUGE.


Monta's TS% is pretty much at league average. He's not extremely inefficient

and stop bringing up ORTG..Harden plays most his minutes with a top 3 player in nba and a top 5 Pg in nba.

Thunder is also worse with him getting major minutes over Sefolosha. The last 7 games when Sefolosha came down with the injury, Thunder haven't been impressive really.

Loss to Clippers
Loss to Spurs
bs win against Portland
shootout against Warriors, allowing 120 points
Loss to Sac

every game, the guards are going off against Thunder. Monta 48, Parker 42, Tyreke 22/5/5/4, Paul 26/14

none of that happened when Sefolosha was playing
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#105 » by Sothron » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:41 pm

DuckIII wrote:
Sothron wrote:There is simply no reason Smith should not make it in over these guys.


There are reasons, you just don't like them. Deng and Iggy are both in a similar situation. They have both had excellent careers, never been allstars, and are playing for two of the winningest teams in the NBA (Chicago being the actual winningest of all). They are being rewarded for their good careers and their teams are being rewarded. You may not like that it works this way, but it does work this way, so these are legitimate reasons.

Smith also deserves consideration. The complaint, though, should be that Joe Johnson made it. Not that these other two guys made it.


Those are not reasons based on actual performance on the court. Josh Smith has been passed over multiple seasons in a row where he clearly on his on court performance deserved to be an All Star. I have not resorted to that as a "reason" for his being an All Star this season. I broke down his numbers in other posts and he is clearly a superior player in actual performance to Deng and Iggy. That is why he should be an All Star. It is at least somewhat comforting to see the national NBA market in the media and fans are also outraged that he was snubbed again.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#106 » by og15 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:42 pm

Yea, take it easy on the FG% usage, TS% is much better. At the least use eFG% if you want to excuse a guy that doesn't shoot FTs well, or is poor at getting to the line (which I'm not suggesting should be totally ignored, but it can be examined).

Shooting 47% FG can be great, or it can be mediocre, depends on where your shots are coming from. Shooting 47% while taking no three's is not that great, shooting 47% while also shooting 35%+ from 3 on about 2+ attempts is quite nice.

Monta hasn't gotten over 45.1%FG since he started playing more, and since he started taking more three's. His career FG% is 46.7%, but he's only been over that number in 2 of his 6 productive seasons (remove rookie year), and he was playing a different role then. He hasn't do that for 4 years and he hasn't done it as a volume scorer.

Sadly, in addition, he had a great midrange shooting year a few years back, but hasn't been able to replicate that. He's also not even that great a volume scorer. Raw numbers wise he's okay, but not great. Per 36, his highest scoring rate has been 22.2 points / 36, he's not in the right role for his talents.

Earlier, someone mentioned him being a perennial 25-5-5 guy, but he hasn't even done that once. He had a 26-4-5 season, and the next two seasons has been lower than 24.1 PPG, and at 3.5 rebounds or lower. The only accurate thing was the assists. And I'm not criticizing him for not scoring 25 or more, or not grabbing 5 rebounds, I'm criticizing the poster for inflating and basically making up numbers in order to make Ellis look better. We can all check the numbers, so there's no need to make stuff up.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#107 » by coldgrip1 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:44 pm

Got the stat from an article. Wrong stat. Should have checked.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#108 » by og15 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:47 pm

Monta Ellis TS% as a 6th man was .545%, as a starter in 07-08, it was .580%, his career high. Since then, his highest was .536% last season, which is not that bad, but the other three years, he's been in the .510% range, which is fairly poor.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#109 » by Fast Dont Fib » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:49 pm

Ellis posted a 78TS% as a sixth man? How was I not aware of his historical season
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#110 » by Rapcity_11 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:51 pm

SDtotheBay wrote:Monta's TS% is pretty much at league average. He's not extremely inefficient


League average the past few years has been ~54%. Monta is well below that.

and stop bringing up ORTG..Harden plays most his minutes with a top 3 player in nba and a top 5 Pg in nba.


Harden plays about half of his minutes with them and half with bench players. His production is better without KD and RW to use all the possessions.

Why wouldn't you want to use Ortg? It's basically just adds TO's to TS%.

Oh right, it doesn't suit your agenda of propping up Ellis.

Thunder is also worse with him getting major minutes over Sefolosha. The last 7 games when Sefolosha came down with the injury, Thunder haven't been impressive really.

Loss to Clippers
Loss to Spurs
bs win against Portland
shootout against Warriors, allowing 120 points
Loss to Sac

every game, the guards are going off against Thunder. Monta 48, Parker 42, Tyreke 22/5/5/4, Paul 26/14

none of that happened when Sefolosha was playing


The Thunder lose one of the best wing defenders in the league and get worse defensively? Shocking.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#111 » by dballislife » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:51 pm

smith over deng and monta over dirk or parker
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#112 » by panthermark » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:54 pm

Sothron wrote:
Those are not reasons based on actual performance on the court. Josh Smith has been passed over multiple seasons in a row where he clearly on his on court performance deserved to be an All Star. I have not resorted to that as a "reason" for his being an All Star this season. I broke down his numbers in other posts and he is clearly a superior player in actual performance to Deng and Iggy. That is why he should be an All Star. It is at least somewhat comforting to see the national NBA market in the media and fans are also outraged that he was snubbed again.


Blame Johnson and Horford for that.....unless you feel the Hawks have been deserving of 3 All-Star spots the last few years.

If you say it is based on the "on court performance"....why is it that with all of these All-Stars and (formally) a 6th man of the year winner, the Hawks have not been a better team?

Josh Smith should have made it this year....but it should have been over Joe Johnson. Atlanta is 5th in East right now, right in the middle of Philly, Indy, Orlando, and Boston....all of whom only have 1 All-Star themselves.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#113 » by og15 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 7:57 pm

Also, I think we need to understand that EVERY season, there are more All-Star caliber players than there are All-Stars, and if everything remains the same except that you add new rookies every year, some bubble guys might keep getting the short end of the stick.

That is, unless their production vastly increases, or their team vastly improves, along with their impact. It is just how it is.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#114 » by Sothron » Fri Feb 10, 2012 8:02 pm

panthermark wrote:
Sothron wrote:
Those are not reasons based on actual performance on the court. Josh Smith has been passed over multiple seasons in a row where he clearly on his on court performance deserved to be an All Star. I have not resorted to that as a "reason" for his being an All Star this season. I broke down his numbers in other posts and he is clearly a superior player in actual performance to Deng and Iggy. That is why he should be an All Star. It is at least somewhat comforting to see the national NBA market in the media and fans are also outraged that he was snubbed again.


Blame Johnson and Horford for that.....unless you feel the Hawks have been deserving of 3 All-Star spots the last few years.

If you say it is based on the "on court performance"....why is it that with all of these All-Stars and (formally) a 6th man of the year winner, the Hawks have not been a better team?

Josh Smith should have made it this year....but it should have been over Joe Johnson. Atlanta is 5th in East right now, right in the middle of Philly, Indy, Orlando, and Boston....all of whom only have 1 All-Star themselves.


As I said in another thread, I wish this silly notion of "this team "deserves" X All Stars" is done away with at some point. There is no actual argument there. The All Star selection by its very nature is about individual accomplishment. That is the only criteria to determine who should be All Stars or not. Josh Smith's numbers are clearly better than the other reserve forwards and as a result he should be an All Star. The same argument applies to Joe Johnson versus other two guards and Al Horford (when he's healthy) over other centers.

As for "why the Hawks have not been a better team" are you kidding me? The Hawks make the second round of the playoffs for several seasons in a row. That by itself puts them in the top eight teams in the entire NBA. How much "better" should they be? As I said that argument has no water to it.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#115 » by dice » Fri Feb 10, 2012 8:02 pm

Sothron wrote:
DuckIII wrote:
Sothron wrote:There is simply no reason Smith should not make it in over these guys.


There are reasons, you just don't like them. Deng and Iggy are both in a similar situation. They have both had excellent careers, never been allstars, and are playing for two of the winningest teams in the NBA (Chicago being the actual winningest of all). They are being rewarded for their good careers and their teams are being rewarded. You may not like that it works this way, but it does work this way, so these are legitimate reasons.

Smith also deserves consideration. The complaint, though, should be that Joe Johnson made it. Not that these other two guys made it.


Those are not reasons based on actual performance on the court. Josh Smith has been passed over multiple seasons in a row where he clearly on his on court performance deserved to be an All Star. I have not resorted to that as a "reason" for his being an All Star this season. I broke down his numbers in other posts and he is clearly a superior player in actual performance to Deng and Iggy.

you broke down his #s and didn't notice that he's a so-so rebounder and has a poor TS%? his numbers certainly don't justify being an allstar
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#116 » by SDtotheBay » Fri Feb 10, 2012 8:04 pm

League average the past few years has been ~54%. Monta is well below that.


not this year.

his TS% in his last 4 healthy years has been +4% (in the right role), -2.3%, -0.6% and -0.8%. Not too horrible for somebody who is playing in the wrong role and is getting ask to do things he's not good enough to do (like in 09-10 playing defense on the best perimeter player while playing 40+ mpg and scoring 25 AND running point).


Harden plays about half of his minutes with them and half with bench players. His production is better without KD and RW to use all the possessions.

Why wouldn't you want to use Ortg? It's basically just adds TO's to TS%.

Oh right, it doesn't suit your agenda of propping up Ellis.


as recent as 1/29:

294 mins with West/Durant
105 mins without

uh huh.

Also using ORTG to compare one of the worst teams in NBA vs one of the best teams in NBA is stupid.

Just like using ORTG to compare a first option in a bad team vs third option on a good team


The Thunder lose one of the best wing defenders in the league and get worse defensively? Shocking.


no, they get WORSE. Not just defensively. That's the point. Harden is so poor defensively that they are letting players get career and season highs every game since Sefolosha went out without making up for it with a much better offense
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#117 » by Sothron » Fri Feb 10, 2012 8:04 pm

I broke down his numbers in two others posts in this thread, go back and read them if you want to see for yourself how much better his numbers are than Deng and Iggy.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#118 » by johnny878 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 8:08 pm

dice wrote:you broke down his #s and didn't notice that he's a so-so rebounder and has a poor TS%? his numbers certainly don't justify being an allstar


top 20 among all eligible players including Centers in rebounding while playing for one of the slowest paced teams in the league. I think its fair to say he is ATLEAST an above average rebounder for his position.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#119 » by coldgrip1 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 8:09 pm

You can't translate a 6th man's stats to starter-minute stats. They just don't translate.

If you need proof, check out Harden' stats since Sefolosha went down. Since Harden started receiving more minutes, he has had some disastrous games.

Shot 2 of 10 in 42 minutes as a starter, which prompted OKC to push him back to his 6th man role but still maintained his starter-like minutes.

Shot 3 of 11 the next game.

The other games were pretty respectable: 5 of 10, 6 of 12, 6 of 13, 5 of 11 averaging about 16ppg in that stretch during which he started or received starter minutes. Nothing spectacular.
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Re: Josh Smith and Monta Ellis got screwed! (again...) 

Post#120 » by coldgrip1 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 8:19 pm

Something nobody mentioned:

Ellis dropped 48 pts on Westbrook and Harden 3 nights ago. Westbrook couldn't guard him, so OKC switched Harden on to Ellis. That was actually worse. Ellis made Harden look like his child repeatedly. Can't be more efficient than 18 of 28 for 48 pts. Harden himself had a respectable game shooting 6 of 13 but the discrepancy in talent is obvious.

And Ellis was playing on one bad knee, as most of this season. So whatever.. :shrugs:

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