Official West Conference Prediction Thread - updated 10/25/16

[watpho71]

[watpho71]

West

1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. Clippers
4. Utah
5. Portland
6. Houston
7. Phoenix
8. Memphis

9. Dallas
10. Oklahoma City
11. Minnesota
12. New Orleans
13. Sacramento
14. Denver
15. Lakers

Wow, Phoenix in the playoffs? What makes you think that?

Maybe reaching here, wild card pick.
Sophomore breakout & 6th Man of the Year = Devin Booker

[bleu]

1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. Houston
4. Utah
5. Oklahoma City
6. LA Clippers
7. Memphis
8. Portland

9. Denver
10. Minnesota
11. New Orleans
12. Dallas
13. LA Lakers
14. Phoenix
15. Sacramento

I don't post here often, I'm just a spectator... but this is just so wrong on so many levels that I just had to step in and say something.

You have the Warriors at 1 and Spurs at 2... ok, fair enough. But after that it just get's ugly.

Houston at 3... I'm assuming you're thinking they'll revert back to their 2014-15 form. Can't see that happening. They're awful defensively and just got worse by losing Dwight Howard and adding Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. Harden's ego is so inflated at this point there's gonna be close to zero ball movement and they'll implode like they did this past season.

Jazz at 4... lmao I'm sorry but George Hill, 35 year old Joe Johnson and Borris Diaw aren't the differences between missing the playoffs and becoming a top 4 team. To be a great team, you have to have at least 1 great player. Gordon Hayward is not a great player. Good, not great. They'll be fighting for those 7-8th seeds if they stay healthy.

OKC at 5... Westbrook is great, but he's not gonna be able to lead that team by himself to the 5th seed. When KD played just 27 games in 2014-15 and Westbrook was carrying the load, they didn't even make the playoffs. I suspect they'll still be fighting for a playoff spot but definitely not getting that 5th seed.

Clips at 6... They obviously aren't doing anything in the playoffs but they'll definitely win a lot of regular season games again. 6 is too low.

Grizz at 7... They have one of the better starting lineups in the league now after adding Parsons. If they stay healthy, they should be a top 4 seed. 7 is too low.

Blazers at 8... They've essentially brought back their whole team from last year plus added Evan Turner and Festus Ezeli. And there's no reason to think McCollum won't expand his game even more this season. They may not be better than the 5th seed that they were last year, but they definitely won't fall back 3 spots.

Then you got Denver over Minnesota and Dallas at 9?? First of all, Dallas has one of the more complete starting lineups in the league and should definitely be a playoff team. D-Will/Matthews/Barnes/Dirk/Bogut is a serious lineup if they stay healthy. Not only are they a playoff team but should be fighting for those 4th-6th seeds. Then Minnesota... they're much better than Denver and it's not close. Rubio, Dunn, Wiggins, LaVine, Shabazz, Dieng, Towns... so much great young talent on that squad. Denver really only has Mudiay, Murray, Faried, and Gallinari. Much more talent and star power on the T-Wolves.

Not trying to be disrespectful but man I just completely disagree with your rankings.

Before the last season, many "experts" were putting Golden State as a 3-4 seed, the Bulls as a no brainer playoff team, the Blazers as a 30 win team, and the Thunder barely getting in. A few of my picks are leaps, but if everyone could predict the NBA season there would be no reason to play.

[Riko]

1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. Houston
4. LA Clippers
5. Memphis
6. Portland
7. Utah
8. Oklahoma City

9. Dallas
10. Denver
11. Minnesota
12. New Orleans
13. LA Lakers
14. Sacramento
15. Phoenix

[bondom34]

OKC at 5... Westbrook is great, but he's not gonna be able to lead that team by himself to the 5th seed. When KD played just 27 games in 2014-15 and Westbrook was carrying the load, they didn't even make the playoffs. I suspect they'll still be fighting for a playoff spot but definitely not getting that 5th seed.
.

They also were missing Westbrook 15 games, Ibaka about 20, Adams about 15, and more. Assuming health they should win 45ish or more.

[BallerTalk]

Houston at 3... I'm assuming you're thinking they'll revert back to their 2014-15 form. Can't see that happening. They're awful defensively and just got worse by losing Dwight Howard and adding Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. Harden's ego is so inflated at this point there's gonna be close to zero ball movement and they'll implode like they did this past season.

I find it interesting that you (and apparently some others) take last season's debacle in Houston as a more accurate indicator of their team than the three previous years of upward trajectory. You mention the 2014-15 season as if it were the outlier despite the fact they had been climbing in that direction every year since Harden's arrival.

Even more telling is that you cite the loss of Howard as a supporting point, apparently unaware that most evidence suggests the opposite. In 2014-15 Howard missed half the season and the Rockets still managed nearly 60 wins. Furthermore, the team had a slightly better record during the games he missed as opposed to those he played.
Perhaps most notable is that despite Howard being out for extended stretches, they still managed to have a top 5 defense for almost the entire season.
So with Dwight having missed 50+ games over the last two seasons I don't think letting him go in free agency will be a major adjustment for them.

I was not a fan of the D'Antoni hire but you have to admit that, when given talent, he has a recipe for regular season success. This team has talent.
This summer they went out and acquired players who should thrive in D'Antoni's system and seem to fit Harden very well.
As with all teams, health is a concern but the Rockets have dealt with injury issues for the last three years and have still found a way to be successful.
Plus I don't think you can discount the fact that they will start this year without some of the major distractions that contributed to the derailment of last season.

I understand that prediction threads like this are mostly opinion based and as such aren't particularly insightful. Most people just list teams based on personal affinity rather than any objective measure.
I just found your comment, and the justification you gave for it, particularly odd.

[bwgood77]

West

1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. Clippers
4. Utah
5. Portland
6. Houston
7. Phoenix
8. Memphis

9. Dallas
10. Oklahoma City
11. Minnesota
12. New Orleans
13. Sacramento
14. Denver
15. Lakers

Wow, Phoenix in the playoffs? What makes you think that?

Maybe reaching here, wild card pick.
Sophomore breakout & 6th Man of the Year = Devin Booker

Yeah, personally if every team is completely healthy, I expect them to be at the bottom with the Lakers. I think so many teams are going to be lumped together in that 35-45 win range, and people may be sleeping on Denver. I would say Sacramento too but they always find a way to screw things up, and they still need a PG. But Skal already looking good, and they are loaded at the bigs.

Denver has stud bigs (Jokic was #1 in RPM for centers last year). Towns was 41st, Adams and Gobert at 18th and 19th, Cousins at 3rd, Jordan at 4th and Drummond at 9th. Okafor far in last at 75th. I'm not sure people realize how good he is. Then Nurkic too is a good backup at 47th.

Then with Jamal Murray, Devin Harris and Will Barton and vets Gallinari and Wilson Chandler that's a nice mix. All comes down to Mudiay. I could see them seriously fighting for a playoff spot.

Minnesota with Thibs, and two great defensive PGs is good. They outscored teams with Rubio on the court last year, so even when he rests, that shouldn't dip as much when he sits or is injured. They were so bad when he didn't play that they ended 5th worst. So theoretically they should be around 500, and that's not really accounting for Thibs.

I would probably say..

GS
SA

These next two will be close depending on health.

Memphis
Clips

Next three close again. Portland over achieved a tad due to a weaker west which will be much tougher this year despite OKC falling back. OKC is a little tough without a PF, but with a great center pairing, Russ and Dipo, Illyasova spreading floor with Sabonis being likely to contribute quickly, they now just need to address SF. Should probably maybe sign Harkless but I can see wanting to preserve space for hometown kid Griffin or a possible Durant return when he realizes he misses his OKC home and his touches decrease throughout the year after they feed him early (the latter is kind of a stretch, but it wouldn't shock me..I think he may end feelings some regret as time wears on....if they win it all he will be happy for the ring but wouldn't be surprised if he left). Culture probably too good to leave though.

Utah
OKC
Portland

Then a dog fight for last

Minnesota most likely, and they could be in next group up

But I think these teams will be fighting throughout the year:

Dallas
Houston
Denver
Sac until they implode
New Orleans (health a huge factor here)

Then...mostly because they are too young, the former, or overpaid non difference makers. Mozgov way overpaid, but you could have said the same for Chandler last year (as a matter of fact, most did).

Phx (I think they could start pretty well as the team environment is FAR better than the last two years)
LAL

[ken6199]

What some people don't understand is 1) good defense also comes from good offense. When you make your shots, you eliminate the opportunities of your opponents making fast breaks, and your defense is much better set esp. against teams like GS in this motion driven small ball era. 2) When players are playing in a structured offense, they are happy in their roles, and they give more effort on the other end. Houston went from top 10 defense in 14-15 with a half injured team to bottom 10 defense in 15-16 with a healthy squad, 3pt defense went from league top 1 to a whopping bottom 3, that says a lot about 1) and 2). With the unclicking duo of Harden+Dwight plus the clueless JBB who knows nothing about organizing offense or proper rotations, there was absolutely no chance you ask those guys to come back and lock down on D, either tactically or mentally. There is just no chemistry there.

I know it sounds like a pipe dream that Anderson Gordon stay all healthy and play solid roles in a well-oiled offense behind MDA's system feeding off Harden, but at least you have something to look forward to than enduring JBB and his basketball philosophy.

[Qwigglez]

1. Warriors
2. Spurs
3. Grizzlies
4. Clippers
5. Jazz
6. Wolves
7. Suns
8. Blazers

[ken6199]

..., but with a great center pairing, Russ and Dipo, Gallinari spreading floor with Sabonis being likely to contribute quickly, ...

You mean Ersan?

[bwgood77]

..., but with a great center pairing, Russ and Dipo, Gallinari spreading floor with Sabonis being likely to contribute quickly, ...

You mean Ersan?

Yeah, I didn't even see this and was re-reading my post this morning and just edited so yes, that's who I meant.

[goober]

Jazz at 4... lmao I'm sorry but George Hill, 35 year old Joe Johnson and Borris Diaw aren't the differences between missing the playoffs and becoming a top 4 team. To be a great team, you have to have at least 1 great player. Gordon Hayward is not a great player. Good, not great. They'll be fighting for those 7-8th seeds if they stay healthy.

The Jazz were fighting for the 7-8th seed with Exum, Burks, Favors, and Gobert all missing extended time. Hill, Johnson, and Diaw aren't our only additions, we're essentially adding Exum and Burks to our team last season.

You'll be surprised how well the Jazz do with the improvement of Hood, Lyles and the additions they made. I would not r shocked to see the Jazz win 50+ games.

[djhunkyherbs]

1. Warriors
2. Spurs
3. Grizzlies
4. Clippers
5. Jazz
6. Rockets
7. Blazers
8. Mavericks

9. Thunder
10. Nuggets
11. Timberwolves
12. Pelicans
13. Kings
14. Suns
15. Lakers


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[nomansland]

Then with Jamal Murray, Devin Harris and Will Barton and vets Gallinari and Wilson Chandler that's a nice mix. All comes down to Mudiay. I could see them seriously fighting for a playoff spot.

Dunno if this changes your prediction but it's Gary Harris, not Devin Harris.

[nomansland]

1. GSW
2. SAS
3. MEM
4. UTA
5. LAC
6. DAL
7. POR
8. HOU

9. OKC
10. MIN
11. DEN
12. NOP
13. PHO
14. SAC
15. LAL

[ken6199]

1. GSW
2. SAS
3. MEM
4. UTA
5. LAC
6. DAL
7. POR
8. OKC

9. MIN
10. DEN
11. NOP
12. PHO
13. SAC
14. LAL

Too much hype for Houston man

[nomansland]

1. GSW
2. SAS
3. MEM
4. UTA
5. LAC
6. DAL
7. POR
8. OKC

9. MIN
10. DEN
11. NOP
12. PHO
13. SAC
14. LAL

Too much hype for Houston man

lol whoops I'll edit it

[ken6199]

lol whoops I'll edit it

whoops I hope bondom34 doesn't see this...

[franktony]

1 - Warriors
2 - Spurs
3 - Clippers
4 - Grizzlies
5 - Jazz
6 - Mavericks
7 - Rockets
8 - Thunder

[nomansland]

lol whoops I'll edit it

whoops I hope bondom34 doesn't see this...

He should be happy- I think they'll prefer to be in the lottery than barely make the playoffs.