Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV (Must read Post 1)

[BballIsLife11]

For the people that are against what was done about testing early on - given what Dr. Fauci has been saying about restrictions they had/still somewhat have to deal with, along with not wanting to flood hospitals at the very beginning without them being prepared for it... what would you have done differently?
Additionally if 2 months from now we get through the darkest times of all this with hospital/medical capacity and capability holding up for the most part everywhere, would you still harp on testing or would the end result be enough for you?

[GordanFreeman]

Something small, called taxes not due until 7/15.

Oh, and they also are allowing for those of you getting a rebate, file now and get your money.

Listen I'm glad they did that but it's far short of what they need to do. Far short.

google a list of everything they have done. A lot more than you/many give credit.

Can they do more? Always. This is a crisis after all. Will the public always want more? Yes. As they should.

We should all be thankful for what they have done -- by being respectful and understanding of what they have done -- and politely asking for more.

Hmmm are you bring sarcastic?

[Dirk]

Apologies for my part. My elderly parents are legit terrified right now and i let it get the better of me.

That's an important reminder. We need to act individually with the info we know and to our best judgement. We look at countries in Europe... and we can just pretend we're at their point in time. And the eldery are very vulnerable and shouldn't be at risk.

I think we all need to call our parents daily. Explain them what we know. Help them get the groceries if we can. Basically, everyone vulnerable should really not leave the house right now. This has been going on for a week now.

Note:

- reports that in Italy they had to be making tough choices with regards of who to treat (preference going to the younger and more likely to survive)

Read about their triage
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain/spain-to-treat-thousands-of-coronavirus-patients-in-conference-hall-as-toll-tops-1000-idUSKBN2172KO

Today

- Spain is reported to be having to make the same decisions
https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20200320/criterios-decidir-prioridad-falten-camas-uci/475954325_0.html

New York is looking at the same thing it seems. So not only are those of risk more likely to die, they may not even get the proper treatment if hospitals get overwhelmed and doctors have to make tough decisions.

I'd probably tell your parents, "Monitor how you feel. Stay home for the next 7-10 days. And relax."

[Nuntius]

Good write up on why free and widespread testing is the first real step to getting things under control:
https://medium.com/@yishan/free-widespread-testing-is-the-only-way-america-goes-back-to-normal-952ee9201dd

I've been thinking about this all last night, I think the greatest misstep BY far in this country was not ramping up for widespread and mass testing 1 or 2 months ago (assigning blame is not my concern right now.) Obviously this would have helped individuals with symptoms, saved lives, and also start isolating carriers early.

But what we needed more than anything is DATA. Not just about sick people, but about the greater population. What percentage of an urban area has COVID? What about rural areas? What's really happening day to day, week to week? Are we doing too much, or not enough? Right now we are largely flying blind, testing has only just started to ramp up so you have some arguing this is a hoax, some saying we're still not doing enough. More data, earlier, would have really helped establish a consensus sooner in this country.

Instead of speculating and ARGUING about the severity of COVID-19 in the USA, LET'S FIND OUT INSTEAD should have been the focus.

To make a basketball analogy, it would be like the Clippers about to play to Bucks in the Finals, but having done absolutely no scouting or even watching the Bucks or any EC teams, and not even having complete stats on the Bucks team and players. How good are they? How are the match ups? Are we gonna sweep or get swept? What kind of game plan should we have? Some say, easy we will win in 4. Others say the Bucks are too strong and will sweep the Clips. Some say the whole thing is a hoax and the Bucks don't actually exist. How can there be any coherent plan or agreement in this environment?

And then the night before the game, Doc Rivers and the coaching staff decides to buy NBA League Pass and start scouting the Bucks...

100% agreed. Aggressive testing is pivotal early on and most Western countries completely dropped the ball on this aspect.

Some say the whole thing is a hoax and the Bucks don't actually exist.

[zimpy27]

For the people that are against what was done about testing early on - given what Dr. Fauci has been saying about restrictions they had/still somewhat have to deal with, along with not wanting to flood hospitals at the very beginning without them being prepared for it... what would you have done differently?
Additionally if 2 months from now we get through the darkest times of all this with hospital/medical capacity and capability holding up for the most part everywhere, would you still harp on testing or would the end result be enough for you?

CDC should have worked collaboratively with groups in Europe and Asia to get the same test they already had success with. That's all that needed to be different. it was a mistake that a few people probably feel terrible about but it's done. It's been corrected and testing is now ramping up.

Testing is the key for stabilising the patient numbers in hospitals and keeping the economy going.

US made decisions based on hospital and death numbers, problem is that happens at about 10-15 days past point of infection, whereas testing happens at symptom onset (5 days). A ubiquitous test will halve the R0 at the minimum.

[Swish1906]

The USA acted way too slow and late. Same with Italy. And now you can compare the curves of Italy and the USA

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting

[Pharmcat]

For the people that are against what was done about testing early on - given what Dr. Fauci has been saying about restrictions they had/still somewhat have to deal with, along with not wanting to flood hospitals at the very beginning without them being prepared for it... what would you have done differently?
Additionally if 2 months from now we get through the darkest times of all this with hospital/medical capacity and capability holding up for the most part everywhere, would you still harp on testing or would the end result be enough for you?

CDC should have worked collaboratively with groups in Europe and Asia to get the same test they already had success with. That's all that needed to be different. it was a mistake that a few people probably feel terrible about but it's done. It's been corrected and testing is now ramping up.

Testing is the key for stabilising the patient numbers in hospitals and keeping the economy going.

US made decisions based on hospital and death numbers, problem is that happens at about 10-15 days past point of infection, whereas testing happens at symptom onset (5 days). A ubiquitous test will halve the R0 at the minimum.

Boom : This guy / gal knows what they are talking about

[Hornet Mania]

Italy is the canary in the coal mine, no excuse not to take strong and decisive action. Nobody wants a similar outbreak happening in their community.

The delay in action for a lot of EU countries and the US has hurt our chances of avoiding similar situations, but I hope it's not too late to blunt the full force of the spread.

[madmaxmedia]

Trump said him and Schumer aren't far apart on agreement regarding companies using bailout money to buy stocks. He said he doesn't agree with stock buyback at all. I'm glad the white house and Dem leaders agree that that is a terrible thing. They should basically put a clause in to pull funds back or close them down permanently if they do that ****.

Whatever our political persuasions, what we all need more than anything is for the government and for all of us to pull and rally together right now. Fox, MSNBC, flat earther, birther, Bernie bro...doesn't matter. We all need to be responsible, kind, and smart more than we've all ever been before.

Yep. It's just weird to see Trump getting along with Dems almost better than his own party right now. I guess that's a sign that both parties just want to pull together to navigate this crises. Trump messed up BAD at handling this originally. No denying he set us back some. That being said, at least now he's making tough choices and working together

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Yeah, I mean I have pretty strong thoughts on that just as you. But right now the last thing I want to see right now is division, finger-pointing, and strife. We'll get plenty of that in the next election.

[YourBuddy]

For the people that are against what was done about testing early on - given what Dr. Fauci has been saying about restrictions they had/still somewhat have to deal with, along with not wanting to flood hospitals at the very beginning without them being prepared for it... what would you have done differently?
Additionally if 2 months from now we get through the darkest times of all this with hospital/medical capacity and capability holding up for the most part everywhere, would you still harp on testing or would the end result be enough for you?

Testing early keeps hospital capacity better under control. Information is important to keep people who test positive quarantined and stop the spread. Instead we were flying mostly blind for weeks.

and No, we have already seen too much spread to shrug off the failure of getting the most important part of the puzzle to containing a pandemic, just because you hope things work out.

[bwgood77]

Good write up on why free and widespread testing is the first real step to getting things under control:
https://medium.com/@yishan/free-widespread-testing-is-the-only-way-america-goes-back-to-normal-952ee9201dd

I've been thinking about this all last night, I think the greatest misstep BY far in this country was not ramping up for widespread and mass testing 1 or 2 months ago (assigning blame is not my concern right now.) Obviously this would have helped individuals with symptoms, saved lives, and also start isolating carriers early.

But what we needed more than anything is DATA. Not just about sick people, but about the greater population. What percentage of an urban area has COVID? What about rural areas? What's really happening day to day, week to week? Are we doing too much, or not enough? Right now we are largely flying blind, testing has only just started to ramp up so you have some arguing this is a hoax, some saying we're still not doing enough. More data, earlier, would have really helped establish a consensus sooner in this country.

Instead of speculating and ARGUING about the severity of COVID-19 in the USA, LET'S FIND OUT INSTEAD should have been the focus.

To make a basketball analogy, it would be like the Clippers about to play to Bucks in the Finals, but having done absolutely no scouting or even watching the Bucks or any EC teams, and not even having complete stats on the Bucks team and players. How good are they? How are the match ups? Are we gonna sweep or get swept? What kind of game plan should we have? Some say, easy we will win in 4. Others say the Bucks are too strong and will sweep the Clips. Some say the whole thing is a hoax and the Bucks don't actually exist. How can there be any coherent plan or agreement in this environment?

And then the night before the game, Doc Rivers and the coaching staff decides to buy NBA League Pass and start scouting the Bucks...

Great analogy.

[NirvanaFC]

Read on Twitter

A democracy gets the leaders they deserve. USA is hopeless.

People tend to rally around their leaders in times of crisis. That's been true for a long time.

Even a leader who has badly mismanaged the crisis?

[madmaxmedia]

The USA acted way too slow and late. Same with Italy. And now you can compare the curves of Italy and the USA

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting

The horrible thing is that we don't even know yet, how far behind we were. Those curves are misleading, because of insufficient testing and the unknown gap between actual and confirmed cases. We needed mass testing in January or at least February.

[NoDopeOnSundays]

USA

225 deaths
115 recoveries



This is not a good sign.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

[azcatz11]

OT: Going to hop on the sticks soon for GTA online...PS4. PM me if you wanna play in a little bit and I'll send you my gamer tag.

[Bandit King]

Hard to get accurate data when sick people dont have testing kits and some people have the virus and don’t know about it until it is too late.

[Dirk]

This seems to be the only place that is keeping track of the number of tests
https://covidtracking.com/data/

Recent update

[Ainosterhaspie]

USA

225 deaths
115 recoveries



This is not a good sign.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

Death happens earlier than recovery so it's expected early in the process that the numbers will skew towards more dead.

[madmaxmedia]

Hard to get accurate data when sick people dont have testing kits and some people have the virus and don’t know about it until it is too late.

For the people that are against what was done about testing early on - given what Dr. Fauci has been saying about restrictions they had/still somewhat have to deal with, along with not wanting to flood hospitals at the very beginning without them being prepared for it... what would you have done differently?
Additionally if 2 months from now we get through the darkest times of all this with hospital/medical capacity and capability holding up for the most part everywhere, would you still harp on testing or would the end result be enough for you?

CDC should have worked collaboratively with groups in Europe and Asia to get the same test they already had success with. That's all that needed to be different. it was a mistake that a few people probably feel terrible about but it's done. It's been corrected and testing is now ramping up.

Testing is the key for stabilising the patient numbers in hospitals and keeping the economy going.

US made decisions based on hospital and death numbers, problem is that happens at about 10-15 days past point of infection, whereas testing happens at symptom onset (5 days). A ubiquitous test will halve the R0 at the minimum.

This has to be one of the biggest lessons the world collectively learns from this, and is INGRAINED in us going forward.

To further the basketball analogy I made, we're effectively game planning for tonight's game based on the stats for the opponent from 2 seasons ago. It's impossible to be forward thinking (with any certainty) when it's literally impossible for us to even catch up to assess the current situation.

It seems we are finally ramping up, we need to start planning now for a 1000x scale ramp up in testing if we're ever going to get ahead of this.

[Hornet Mania]

USA

225 deaths
115 recoveries



This is not a good sign.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using RealGM mobile app

The recovered/death splits in Italy and France are freaky too. I'm just hoping the number of asymptomatic cases are higher than we realize, which would drag the fatality rate way down. That hypothetical present problems of its own though with potentially many people traveling around thinking they're fine. Blanket testing is the safest route, imo, Korea had it right.