Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[bulliedog8]

A hell of a lot more of us are working than just government (actually a lot of them aren't) and media. That said from an economics point of view, the fear of a SECOND shutdown is FAR worse than this lasting too long. That's now where economists are focused, much more so than when to reopen even. We'll long term be far better off if this lasts a month or even two, too long vs doing it too soon.

I know a lot of others are working. And i think it is very selfish for those who are still working/able to work, to tell those who cant, that they need to stay home and not make money to provide for their family.

But again, I think every job is essential, which means everyone should be working

[nikster]

It will be fun to see (it wont be fun actually) the suicide rates skyrocket and the crime rates to go up if they keep extending these "orders".

Everyone I know is itching to get back to work. Even my friends who were all for shelter in place and attacked me at the start. They are thinking this is getting ridiculous.

The biggest advocates for extending the shelter in place and "non" essentials not working are the ones who are still getting paid and working (government and media).

If I had a business, I would have never shut down. Of course I wouldnt force my employees to work if they didnt feel safe, but I would keep the business open and dare mayors and governors to shut me down. Would be a very easy case to win as I would take it up to the supreme court with these politicians doing unconstitutional orders.

the suicide rates wont come close to the deaths prevented from reduction in heart attack, stroke, motor vehicle or industrial accidents etc... Plus im not even expecting a large spike in suicides, other causes of stress for people (social anxiety, bullying, work) are removed as well

While I expect a fast recovery, it won't be that for everyone. We absolutely will see suicide due to the recession and that will be something that'll take time to really analyze and figure out the ultimately cause. So perhaps you're saying reductions elsewhere will reduce the net number...?

yeah so I think suicides will rise overall due to isolation and poverty, however with less suicide due to job stress, social anxiety etc... the increase in suicides will not be as pronounced as it otherwise would. Also The net increase in suicides will be less then the decrease in other deaths i mentioned (accidents, heart disease)

[bwgood77]

Time to open the economy back up. Lets get things started again.

The whole reason for "shelter in place" and all these other draconian and authoritarian orders by mayors and governors was to "flatten the curve" (a made up curve that no one actually knew what it was), was to not overwhelm the hospitals. Well it looks like it worked. So what is the reasoning for continuing to push it further and further out? We literally accomplished what their goals were. We cant keep pushing this out forever. They extend the orders based on the models, time to shorter the orders based on the changes in the models.

Hopefully not too many people have been listening to the orders. Im happy to see a lot of people out. I was working out at a "closed" park. Need more people to just do what they want. Soon everyone should just say f it, and go to work. Lets get everyones lives going again.

It's flattened because of measures taken, but just going back to normal likely wastes that effort and you just are back at square one. This pandemic started when there were a limited number of people infected coming into the states.

There are currently over 500K active cases in the states. If we go back to normal any time soon, considering the spread from just a few infected a month ago to what we have had the last month, what do you think happens if we open it up with 500,000 active cases? And those are just the ones we know about.

The economy will recover far more quickly if you do it right and put the fire out as much as possible and don't dick around with trying to reopen it too soon.

I want the economy to come back too, but forcing that too early just likely prolongs a long depression because the economy will never get back into full force with a bunch of infected still out there all the time infecting others. More than half the country won't want to go out to things.

[nikster]

Hitlers rise to power and his subsequent authoritarian overreach is culmination of decades of erosion of the checks and balances as well as the attidudes of the government and the subset of the population supporting them. How many cases of temporary emergency powers such as war time or other pandemics have lead to authoritarian rule? Also, is it very "radical" of the dems to be pushing self-isolation when that is literally what the entire world is doing?

As for returning to work, a second wave is a very real concern. in the spanish flu it was the 2nd wave that was by far the most deadly and killed a high percentage of young. And studies looking at the response back then found that cities/states that held precautions the longest came out strongest afterwards.

Not to mention we arent even passed the first wave. New York may be peaking or has, but other states are behind in the infection curve. PPE is still in short supply for most health workers and certianly not available for the general populaiton

I dont think a second wave would come during the summer months. Most illnesses go away with warmer weather. And if the concern is next fall into winter, by then a good majority will have antibodies or we will have herd immunity that it wont be a big concern IMO. Or at least any worse than the season flu, which this is no worse.

Plus we have treatments (hydroxycholorquine and zpack) plus have antibody tests going. We can start getting back to work and those who are more vulnerable (elderly, etc) can still take precautions.

Second wave of Flu started in August in the USA. Your holding out hope that the warmer weather will slow it down but there is not evidence for it. Studies so far have been conflicting, and at best slows to slight dampening in spread that might not have a substantial impact. Your herd immunity is just another hopeful assumption. We have yet to confirm how resistant people who recovered are, and this is a virus that will be incredibly wide spread, which means lots of chances for it to mutate to overcome resistance or be deadlier. Natural Antibodies didnt do much to prevent the 2nd wave of the Spanish flu.

The treatments are yet to have substantial evidence that they work (which is another benefit to delaying, evidence for what works will be stronger over time). Right now treatment is just supportive, stick a tube down there throat to force oxygen down their lungs long enough for the body to hopefully recover. What else has changed since 1918 is that populations are larger, denser and more interconnected via travel

[steger_3434]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


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[MotownMadness]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


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We do need to open up somethings. Right now im not sure just having people crowding into the same couple stores for essentials is any worse then alot of smaller companies who could practice the same guidlines at a more effective level.

[nikster]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


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US was getting about 2000 deaths daily the past 5 days, yesterday was a slight drop but still above 1500. Its a bit premature to think the peak is passed overall (and some US states that got cases later are yet to peak)

[lakerz12]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


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US was getting about 2000 deaths daily the past 5 days, yesterday was a slight drop but still above 1500. Its a bit premature to think the peak is passed overall (and some US states that got cases later are yet to peak)

If you trust this model then deaths did indeed peak 3 days ago, as far as USA total: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

But if that model turns out to be correct we don't know. But it is appearing that deaths are on the decline now.

This website also shows daily new cases and new deaths leveling and dropping: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Of course yes some individual states may peak slightly later.

[dhsilv2]

Time to open the economy back up. Lets get things started again.

The whole reason for "shelter in place" and all these other draconian and authoritarian orders by mayors and governors was to "flatten the curve" (a made up curve that no one actually knew what it was), was to not overwhelm the hospitals. Well it looks like it worked. So what is the reasoning for continuing to push it further and further out? We literally accomplished what their goals were. We cant keep pushing this out forever. They extend the orders based on the models, time to shorter the orders based on the changes in the models.

Hopefully not too many people have been listening to the orders. Im happy to see a lot of people out. I was working out at a "closed" park. Need more people to just do what they want. Soon everyone should just say f it, and go to work. Lets get everyones lives going again.

We need the curve to STAY low and while it has worked in some areas, keep in mind each city is on a different time line. Some cities likely are nearing a point where they possibly can go back to work. Others are not there yet. I believe in most places you're free to go out and endanger others and yourself if you so chose...most of us would rather use our freedom and liberty to stay at home and make sure we don't kill friends and family. Most people have spent the better part of their life and income in finding ways to never leave their homes anyway...why not put all that stuff to work for a few months?

hell this would be a great time for a lot of people to make a killing financially with markets down and all kinds of new opportunities for businesses.

[dhsilv2]

That's a good thing...golf is still open here in AZ but the requirement is one per cart. Oh, but I saw a group of people sneezing on each other so we're all screwed

Another interesting thing is that of 9/10 people or so in the store (again, me being the only one wearing my ski mask even), most were over 60. Including the lady at the register. Pretty odd honestly. They should in fact be much more careful.

I'd say mask usage is around 75% here at the stores. Of course, the people that aren't wearing masks are the teenagers working there that we are trying to protect.

Disc Golf courses are barren, but it's been a steady diet of rain. I can't speak for Ball Golf.

As someone who goes out like 2-3 times a week for groceries or alcohol...where in gods name are people getting all these masks? Is there a mask store I just missed...and is it better for me to go there and expose myself and others to me or better to avoid it and just limit time trips out?

[dhsilv2]

A hell of a lot more of us are working than just government (actually a lot of them aren't) and media. That said from an economics point of view, the fear of a SECOND shutdown is FAR worse than this lasting too long. That's now where economists are focused, much more so than when to reopen even. We'll long term be far better off if this lasts a month or even two, too long vs doing it too soon.

I know a lot of others are working. And i think it is very selfish for those who are still working/able to work, to tell those who cant, that they need to stay home and not make money to provide for their family.

But again, I think every job is essential, which means everyone should be working

Most states and the federal government have come in with unemployment that is mostly offsetting the costs for workers. That's why we pay for things like insurance in the first place. And it will be FAR worse economically for those same workers to go back to work too soon and have to shut things down again. A second shutdown could have us looking at another 2009 type recovery vs say a 1920's style one.

[dhsilv2]

the suicide rates wont come close to the deaths prevented from reduction in heart attack, stroke, motor vehicle or industrial accidents etc... Plus im not even expecting a large spike in suicides, other causes of stress for people (social anxiety, bullying, work) are removed as well

While I expect a fast recovery, it won't be that for everyone. We absolutely will see suicide due to the recession and that will be something that'll take time to really analyze and figure out the ultimately cause. So perhaps you're saying reductions elsewhere will reduce the net number...?

yeah so I think suicides will rise overall due to isolation and poverty, however with less suicide due to job stress, social anxiety etc... the increase in suicides will not be as pronounced as it otherwise would. Also The net increase in suicides will be less then the decrease in other deaths i mentioned (accidents, heart disease)

The job stress one I just can't see. Between small businesses, those in the financial services sector, and really just anyone in the "in person" economy, the stress right now is overwhelming.

[dhsilv2]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


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It has to STAY flat, and until we have a vaccine or about 50-70% of the population get it, we'll get a spike as soon as we open things back up. At that point we'd have done all this for nothing. Again, half the population needs to get this or a vaccines before it'll not just spike again, we're trying to keep the rate of infection low enough for our hospitals to handle literally half the country coming down with this.

[bulliedog8]

Time to open the economy back up. Lets get things started again.

The whole reason for "shelter in place" and all these other draconian and authoritarian orders by mayors and governors was to "flatten the curve" (a made up curve that no one actually knew what it was), was to not overwhelm the hospitals. Well it looks like it worked. So what is the reasoning for continuing to push it further and further out? We literally accomplished what their goals were. We cant keep pushing this out forever. They extend the orders based on the models, time to shorter the orders based on the changes in the models.

Hopefully not too many people have been listening to the orders. Im happy to see a lot of people out. I was working out at a "closed" park. Need more people to just do what they want. Soon everyone should just say f it, and go to work. Lets get everyones lives going again.

We need the curve to STAY low and while it has worked in some areas, keep in mind each city is on a different time line. Some cities likely are nearing a point where they possibly can go back to work. Others are not there yet. I believe in most places you're free to go out and endanger others and yourself if you so chose...most of us would rather use our freedom and liberty to stay at home and make sure we don't kill friends and family. Most people have spent the better part of their life and income in finding ways to never leave their homes anyway...why not put all that stuff to work for a few months?

hell this would be a great time for a lot of people to make a killing financially with markets down and all kinds of new opportunities for businesses.

haha at " kill family and friends". Seems a little hyperbolic.

[steger_3434]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

It has to STAY flat, and until we have a vaccine or about 50-70% of the population get it, we'll get a spike as soon as we open things back up. At that point we'd have done all this for nothing. Again, half the population needs to get this or a vaccines before it'll not just spike again, we're trying to keep the rate of infection low enough for our hospitals to handle literally half the country coming down with this.

So shut the country down for a year?


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[bulliedog8]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

We do need to open up somethings. Right now im not sure just having people crowding into the same couple stores for essentials is any worse then alot of smaller companies who could practice the same guidlines at a more effective level.

We shut down every business, closed up restaurants and other places of business. On top of that, grocery stores that were 24/7 or open from 6am-11pm are now open from 7am to 9pm.

So not only are more people sitting around because they dont work. These same people when they need to go to the grocery store, have a smaller window to do it in, which means more people in the store at the same time. The logic to all this is incredible. It makes no sense. Why wouldnt you want a store 24/7. That way people who want to avoid others can go either very early or late at night when people are in bed.

North Dakota shouldnt shut down because of new york or LA, or seattle. Population densities and way of travel and life are completely different.

[dhsilv2]

Time to open the economy back up. Lets get things started again.

The whole reason for "shelter in place" and all these other draconian and authoritarian orders by mayors and governors was to "flatten the curve" (a made up curve that no one actually knew what it was), was to not overwhelm the hospitals. Well it looks like it worked. So what is the reasoning for continuing to push it further and further out? We literally accomplished what their goals were. We cant keep pushing this out forever. They extend the orders based on the models, time to shorter the orders based on the changes in the models.

Hopefully not too many people have been listening to the orders. Im happy to see a lot of people out. I was working out at a "closed" park. Need more people to just do what they want. Soon everyone should just say f it, and go to work. Lets get everyones lives going again.

We need the curve to STAY low and while it has worked in some areas, keep in mind each city is on a different time line. Some cities likely are nearing a point where they possibly can go back to work. Others are not there yet. I believe in most places you're free to go out and endanger others and yourself if you so chose...most of us would rather use our freedom and liberty to stay at home and make sure we don't kill friends and family. Most people have spent the better part of their life and income in finding ways to never leave their homes anyway...why not put all that stuff to work for a few months?

hell this would be a great time for a lot of people to make a killing financially with markets down and all kinds of new opportunities for businesses.

haha at " kill family and friends". Seems a little hyperbolic.

But it's not. This thing is going to kill millions of people...do you really want help overload hospitals to where non life threatening issues could become so due to a lack of medical care? This isn't the end of the world and we don't need people rioting in the streets in fear nor do we need people taking up arms against people who aren't social distancing, but yes if you're not taking this seriously you very well could end up killing friends and family. I haven't seen my parents since this started and I won't see them till I know I won't infect them. Why risk being the reason they die prematurely? I'm also not planning to drink and then drive them places either...I'm sure I'll be fine if I'm a hair buzzed, but we all seem to get that is still more risk than we need to take. Why not here?

[dhsilv2]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

It has to STAY flat, and until we have a vaccine or about 50-70% of the population get it, we'll get a spike as soon as we open things back up. At that point we'd have done all this for nothing. Again, half the population needs to get this or a vaccines before it'll not just spike again, we're trying to keep the rate of infection low enough for our hospitals to handle literally half the country coming down with this.

So shut the country down for a year?

I hope we don't need that long, but we should have all known going in this was likely to be a few months, not weeks. That's what flattening the curve always meant and it was pretty clear if you looked at the graphs and charts.

[bulliedog8]

We need the curve to STAY low and while it has worked in some areas, keep in mind each city is on a different time line. Some cities likely are nearing a point where they possibly can go back to work. Others are not there yet. I believe in most places you're free to go out and endanger others and yourself if you so chose...most of us would rather use our freedom and liberty to stay at home and make sure we don't kill friends and family. Most people have spent the better part of their life and income in finding ways to never leave their homes anyway...why not put all that stuff to work for a few months?

hell this would be a great time for a lot of people to make a killing financially with markets down and all kinds of new opportunities for businesses.

haha at " kill family and friends". Seems a little hyperbolic.

But it's not. This thing is going to kill millions of people...do you really want help overload hospitals to where non life threatening issues could become so due to a lack of medical care? This isn't the end of the world and we don't need people rioting in the streets in fear nor do we need people taking up arms against people who aren't social distancing, but yes if you're not taking this seriously you very well could end up killing friends and family. I haven't seen my parents since this started and I won't see them till I know I won't infect them. Why risk being the reason they die prematurely? I'm also not planning to drink and then drive them places either...I'm sure I'll be fine if I'm a hair buzzed, but we all seem to get that is still more risk than we need to take. Why not here?

The bolded part, thats where we disagree. I dont think it kills anymore than 40-50k.

I guess I am not sure whats worse. People dying from the virus, or people dying from suicide, crime, and/or those who die because they cant afford food and other needs.

[dhsilv2]

The point of this was to flatten the curve, not make people not get it. The graph shows the exact same amount of people getting it just spread out over more time so the healthcare system isn’t overrun. Besides a couple hot spots the hospitals are ok. I went to a larger hospital in Milwaukee this past Saturday and it was the slowest I’ve ever seen it. What we did worked. We flattened the curve. Now open up society and continue with life while being more cautious


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

We do need to open up somethings. Right now im not sure just having people crowding into the same couple stores for essentials is any worse then alot of smaller companies who could practice the same guidlines at a more effective level.

We shut down every business, closed up restaurants and other places of business. On top of that, grocery stores that were 24/7 or open from 6am-11pm are now open from 7am to 9pm.

So not only are more people sitting around because they dont work. These same people when they need to go to the grocery store, have a smaller window to do it in, which means more people in the store at the same time. The logic to all this is incredible. It makes no sense. Why wouldnt you want a store 24/7. That way people who want to avoid others can go either very early or late at night when people are in bed.

North Dakota shouldnt shut down because of new york or LA, or seattle. Population densities and way of travel and life are completely different.

The problem is that the rural areas are just as much at risk of overwhelming hospitals...often because they don't have them. A small town could have 20-30 cases just from a single church service and then would need people to travel miles to the nearest critical care facility. Rural areas are very much at risk with even minimal spread.

edit - better map.