2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 6) - with ROY poll

[basketballRob]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-rookie-leaders-in-total-points

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[JackTalkThai]

Rookie leader’s stats since the All Star break…

Mobley: 11.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks
Barnes: 18.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists
Giddey: *injured*
Wagner: 16.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists
Cunningham: 20.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists

[MrBigShot]

Mobley has the award locked up, I'm wondering where all this Cade talk is coming from. I don't even think he's been as good as Scottie Barnes this season.

Lol no he doesn't. Not with the way he's playing lately in conjunction with how well Cade, Barnes, and Wagner are.

Cade and Barnes are quite frankly blowing him out of the absolute water post all star break. Cade's nearly double his ppg and outrebounding him at PG, while Barnes is also out-rebounding him and not not far off Cade's ppg since then. The whole Mobley should win DPOY narrative was nice for a while bit this race is far from over. If the rooks continue on their current trajectory, Cade or Barnes will win it.

[Dutchball97]

Didn't know Cade had so many supporters for the ROY award. Sure he's been good lately but looking at the entire season I don't have him in my top 3. Feels like some people might be a bit influenced by recency bias here.

[7r5ur]

Didn't know Cade had so many supporters for the ROY award. Sure he's been good lately but looking at the entire season I don't have him in my top 3. Feels like some people might be a bit influenced by recency bias here.

Feels more like the November narrative is carrying the ROY race for just as many as "recency bias".

Pistons are 1-13 without Cade and their only victory was a 1 point OT win against the Spurs without Dejounte Murray. They're 11-14 with Cade since the new year (0-5 without).

[Dutchball97]

Didn't know Cade had so many supporters for the ROY award. Sure he's been good lately but looking at the entire season I don't have him in my top 3. Feels like some people might be a bit influenced by recency bias here.

Feels more like the November narrative is carrying the ROY race for just as many as "recency bias".

Let's take a look at the top 5 candidates across the advanced stats.

EPM
1. Wagner +1.1
2. Mobley +0.8
3. Cade -0.2
4. Barnes -0.4
5. Giddey -0.9

RAPTOR
1. Wagner +1
2. Barnes -0.2
3. Mobley -0.7
4. Giddey -1.8
5. Cade -2.2

LEBRON
1. Mobley +1.4
2. Barnes -0.14
3. Wagner -0.53
4. Cade -1.54
5. Giddey -1.97

BPM
1. Mobley +0.4
2. Barnes +0.2
3. Wagner -0.7
4. Giddey -1
5. Cade -2.1

WS/48
1. Barnes .108
2. Mobley .108
3. Wagner .079
4. Giddey .022
5. Cade -0.018

Now this isn't the end all be all for the ROY race. Edwards went through a similar situation as Cade last year where he looked like arguably the best rookie later on in the season after a cold start and somehow still ended up 2nd in voting despite lackluster advanced stats. Probably important to note though Edwards played more games than his main competition in LaMelo and Haliburton, while Cade has played less games than the other 4 serious candidates this season. There being 5 guys getting consideration instead of 3 also makes things harder for Cade.

Cade ahead of Giddey seems reasonable but purely looking at how good these guys have been across the season I'd currently take Mobley, Barnes and Wagner in some order ahead of him.

[reanimator]

Advanced stats with not context to role

[basketballRob]

It will be a tough year to pick the rookie of the year. Mobley has fallen off. Barnes had a really awful stretch. Cade and Giddey are filling up the box score lately. Wagner has steadily played well.

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[First Step]

It will be a tough year to pick the rookie of the year. Mobley has fallen off. Barnes had a really awful stretch. Cade and Giddey are filling up the box score lately. Wagner has steadily played well.

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Mobley is doing it on a competitive team. I think it’s still his to win, unless he continues to play like balls for the rest of the year.

[HiRez]

Rookie tracker through Mar. 5.

[mattao313]

If Cade can continue to juice his raw stats he will probably win. If he can put 18/5/5 he has a good chance to win it.

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[orlando_joe]

If Cade can continue to juice his raw stats he will probably win. If he can put 18/5/5 he has a good chance to win it.

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missing 20% of season and his shooting % will hurt ..think he has to end with alot better numbers to win

[Hoop Heavy]

Three great rooks there at the head of the class.

Anyone of them deserves it. The two losers shouldn't hang their heads. For "big men" Barnes and Mobley are ridiculously polished coming out of the gate - which I think may tip the scales. Still, Cade is the best offensively.

Down to the wire we go.

[7r5ur]

If Cade can continue to juice his raw stats he will probably win. If he can put 18/5/5 he has a good chance to win it.

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missing 20% of season and his shooting % will hurt ..think he has to end with alot better numbers to win

He has played 5 fewer games than Mobley and Barnes to this point. Lamelo won last year playing 21 fewer games than Ant. Biggest thing that hurts Cade is really the narrative of the first few weeks of the season when he was hurt and then started slow. Many people who don't watch the Pistons (most... I don't blame them) likely still have this perception to some degree. So, I expect Mobley to win it by default. Seems like after the 1st month it was decided, even though there are about 5 guys worthy of being in the mix still IMO.

[ocelot17]

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[TheLand13]

20 points (on 60% shooting), 17 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks. This was the kind of stat sheet stuffing performance Mobley really needed to keep his spot at the top. But more important is the job he did on Siakam. I don’t know how many of the missed shots were due to Mobley, but he did a really nice job keeping Siakam in check and he ended up shooting just 36% from the field for the night.

This is the kind of player he’s capable of being when Jarrett Allen isn’t out there playing. But it also kind of helps that Toronto lacks true bigs. It’s scary to imagine what this kid can do once he puts on some muscle.

[NRSV]

Barnes is an incredibly slow footed perimeter defender. He got burned and dunked on by Dean Wade. Pathetic.

[tdotrep2]

20 points (on 60% shooting), 17 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks. This was the kind of stat sheet stuffing performance Mobley really needed to keep his spot at the top. But more important is the job he did on Siakam. I don’t know how many of the missed shots were due to Mobley, but he did a really nice job keeping Siakam in check and he ended up shooting just 36% from the field for the night.

This is the kind of player he’s capable of being when Jarrett Allen isn’t out there playing. But it also kind of helps that Toronto lacks true bigs. It’s scary to imagine what this kid can do once he puts on some muscle.

he played well, but siakam will miss those shots on nights vs muggsy bogues occasionally. he was getting his looks he just misses sometimes

[srhcan]

20 points (on 60% shooting), 17 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks. This was the kind of stat sheet stuffing performance Mobley really needed to keep his spot at the top. But more important is the job he did on Siakam. I don’t know how many of the missed shots were due to Mobley, but he did a really nice job keeping Siakam in check and he ended up shooting just 36% from the field for the night.

This is the kind of player he’s capable of being when Jarrett Allen isn’t out there playing. But it also kind of helps that Toronto lacks true bigs. It’s scary to imagine what this kid can do once he puts on some muscle.

Mobley was a monster tonight.

[K_chile22]

Jalen Green was in his bag tonight. Dusted Clarke a few times including this nasty step back to ice it

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