Bill Simmons' "Trade Value List", 2022 edition

[Ruma85]

Why is that funny?

Ball and Ingram had the same TS%, with Ingram having a small lead in points per 36 while LaMelo leads in REBs, ASTs, steals, win shares, BPM, VORP, RAPTOR. And Ball is four years younger.

That's before you get to salary, controllable years, or the advantages of having a 6'7" PG.

If you get offered Ball for Ingram, I don't know why you wouldn't take Ball every time.

because ball is a traffic cone on defense. pelicans will be nuts to rrafe ingram for ball.

when ball improves his defence then this disscusion relevent.

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

maybe or maybe not, if he wants to win he will have to. i suggest you watch more games.

[BK_2020]

because ball is a traffic cone on defense. pelicans will be nuts to rrafe ingram for ball.

when ball improves his defence then this disscusion relevent.

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

maybe or maybe not, if he wants to win he will have to. i suggest you watch more games.

Yeah maybe you have a point there bro, winning players like Ingram are defensive wizards, that's why at Lamelo's age Ingram won 53 games in two seasons.

[Ruma85]

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

maybe or maybe not, if he wants to win he will have to. i suggest you watch more games.

Yeah maybe you have a point there bro, winning players like Ingram are defensive wizards, that's why at Lamelo's age Ingram won 53 games in two seasons.

[Ruma85]

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

maybe or maybe not, if he wants to win he will have to. i suggest you watch more games.

Yeah maybe you have a point there bro, winning players like Ingram are defensive wizards, that's why at Lamelo's age Ingram won 53 games in two seasons.

i never said lamelo was a bad player, i’m just saying i wouldn’t trade him for ingram.

[QingJames]

If Jayson Tatum is an untouchable, then Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are “Completely and Utterly Untouchable”

Tatum is way better than both those guys, though.

Way better then, B.i is very questionable.

Not at all.

Tatum scores more than Ingram (27ppg to 23ppg) on only 0.7% worse from the field on 2.5 more attempts per game.
Tatum shoots 3% better from distance (35.3% to 32.7%)
Tatum is a better rebounder (8 to 5.8) and grabs offensive boards at twice the rate Ingram does.
Ingram is a slightly better playmaker (5.5 to 4.5, TOVs 2.7 to 2.9)

And of course on defense we know it's not even close; Tatum is worlds beyond Ingram on that end and I don't know that Ingram will ever get even as good as Tatum is right now on that side of the court. His lateral quickness is worse, he's worse at rotations, and of course he doesn't even play in one of the most complicated defensive systems in the league like Tatum does.

Given they are of comparable age (Ingram is 6 months younger), given Tatum's elite postseason play over the course of his career (finals series aside) to me it's a no-brainer that Tatum is not only the much better player but also a far more valuable trade asset. There's basically nothing Ingram does better than him except shoot better from a few spots on the floor and get one more assist per game (and I expect Tatum's playmaking to be even more improved this upcoming year, given how much of a leap he took this past year).

[hoosierdaddy34]

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

Um I like LaMelo but there is nothing in his game that points to him becoming a good to great defender. I think if he gets to mediocre, they are really happy.

And him playing a “less important position on defense” kind of points to Ingrams value. So I’m not sure what you are trying to argue there.

Um, I literally tell you what about his game points to him becoming a good to great defender.
Also him playing a less important position on defense means quite a lot given that they rate as similar defenders by advanced metrics.

BB IQ on the defensive side of the ball and LaMelo That is really funny.

And individual defensive metrics huh? The single most worthless statistic in analytics? Unless you are pulling up synergy ppp data, the rest is complete garbage and not remotely indicative of actual individual ability.

Try again Buckaroo.

[toooskies]

Um I like LaMelo but there is nothing in his game that points to him becoming a good to great defender. I think if he gets to mediocre, they are really happy.

And him playing a “less important position on defense” kind of points to Ingrams value. So I’m not sure what you are trying to argue there.

Um, I literally tell you what about his game points to him becoming a good to great defender.
Also him playing a less important position on defense means quite a lot given that they rate as similar defenders by advanced metrics.

BB IQ on the defensive side of the ball and LaMelo That is really funny.

And individual defensive metrics huh? The single most worthless statistic in analytics? Unless you are pulling up synergy ppp data, the rest is complete garbage and not remotely indicative of actual individual ability.

Try again Buckaroo.

If I'm being generous and called B.I. an average defender while calling LaMelo a poor defender that has the size to be hidden effectively on most teams' worst player, that gap doesn't make up anywhere close to the age, salary, and team control advantages that LaMelo has in terms of trade value.

[Roddy B for 3]

Of course Luka gets points for being younger, but the point is, it’s not close. The difference in PER between Jokic and Luka is the same as the difference between Luka and Jalen Brunson, and Jokic effects the game much more in ways that aren’t measured by the box score. Luka has a loooooong way to go to ever be as good as Jokic is right now.

PER died over 10 years ago.

Simmons wrote a loooot about criterias and age/contract etc all play big roles. And yes, on the court Luka isnt really that far off Joker

Jokic is much more dominant in the modern advanced stats than he is in PER. PER is just easier to compare across eras to make a historical comparison. Here's how they rank with the most popular stats from NBA GMs:

DPM: Jokic 5.4 (#5), Luka 3.2 (#20)
EPM: Jokic +9.3 (#1), Luka +4.5 (#17)
LEBRON: Jokic +7.8 (#1), Luka +3.0 (#20)
RAPTOR: Jokic +14.6 (#1), Luka +6.4 (#6)
RAPM: Jokic +3.7 (#3), Luka +0.8 (#120)
BPM: Jokic +13.7 (#1), Luka +8.2 (#4)
RPM: Jokic +11.8 (#1), Luka +6.5 (#9)
WPA: Jokic +7.7 (#2), Luka +3.0 (#70)

Luka isn't close to Joker any possible way that you look at it. Joker consistently doubles his impact. If you look at the modern stats, it's basically:

Jokic
(gap)
Giannis
Embiid
(gap)
Tatum
Curry
LeBron
(gap)

then Luka somewhere in the next group. Jokic is a much better defender, a MUCH better rebounder, is much better at getting other players involved, and he scores more points per 36 on 3 less FGA.

If Luka is that low in these stats - that shows these stats aren't perfect

[Duke4life831]

I think these things are better off in podcast forum rather than article form. Also from listening to a good amount of Simmons over the past few weeks because of the draft, he's brought this up a few times and each time it really just seems like he has a rough draft for this list and uses it as a jumping off point for a discussion. Which again goes back to my primary point, I think this is much better off to discuss in podcast form than article.

[Roddy B for 3]

The list makes virtually no sense outside of Top 5, unles you’re entire premise is not winning as a franchise. In no terms am I not trading Tatum for Bron. Long term Tatum is value is “higher” but idgaf, it’s about the now. If I put Bron on this current C’s team, do I have a better odds of winning a title? Same goes for Suns, I’ll dump Booker in a Qk minute for Bron or a healthy Kawahi…. How the hell AD is even where he is makes negative 0.00 sense. The reality is, this list is a hot take on a hot plate due to so many things.

I would never trade Tatum or Booker for Lebron or Kawhi, and I'm pretty sure most people think the same. If Kawhi was healthy it could be a conversation.

The point is to win, in his current state. Do you believe Booker is leading the Suns to a title or Bron. He’s failed to do so multiple years now with an aging CP3. He’s now losing Ayton, replacing him with nothing. If I put Bron on Suns roster last year, who’s going further? Same as a healthy 2x champ in KL. Yes Booker value is higher because he’s younger and will generate a longer profit margin but does Booker get you a ring or a spot at the table? Nothing is guaranteed but short term results are better then long term “value”… ‘ceiling’ is another word for unemployed. Simmons is valuing things that don’t matter and it’s why he won’t win a title with this logic.

10 years that Booker gives you a 10% chance of winning the championship
Vs.
3 years LeBron gives you a 12% chance

The added years gives added opportunities. Also going all in prematurely because *now* is ineffective.

IRL LeBron probably gives the Suns higher contender status for a couple of years, but once CP3 falls off you can build around Booker. Once CP3 falls of w/ 'Bron you are in tank mode with 0% chance at a title and praying for lottory balls.

[Mr Loggins]

If Jayson Tatum is an untouchable, then Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are “Completely and Utterly Untouchable”

I’d rather have Tatum than either Ingram or Zion

[iggymcfrack]

PER died over 10 years ago.

Simmons wrote a loooot about criterias and age/contract etc all play big roles. And yes, on the court Luka isnt really that far off Joker

Jokic is much more dominant in the modern advanced stats than he is in PER. PER is just easier to compare across eras to make a historical comparison. Here's how they rank with the most popular stats from NBA GMs:

DPM: Jokic 5.4 (#5), Luka 3.2 (#20)
EPM: Jokic +9.3 (#1), Luka +4.5 (#17)
LEBRON: Jokic +7.8 (#1), Luka +3.0 (#20)
RAPTOR: Jokic +14.6 (#1), Luka +6.4 (#6)
RAPM: Jokic +3.7 (#3), Luka +0.8 (#120)
BPM: Jokic +13.7 (#1), Luka +8.2 (#4)
RPM: Jokic +11.8 (#1), Luka +6.5 (#9)
WPA: Jokic +7.7 (#2), Luka +3.0 (#70)

Luka isn't close to Joker any possible way that you look at it. Joker consistently doubles his impact. If you look at the modern stats, it's basically:

Jokic
(gap)
Giannis
Embiid
(gap)
Tatum
Curry
LeBron
(gap)

then Luka somewhere in the next group. Jokic is a much better defender, a MUCH better rebounder, is much better at getting other players involved, and he scores more points per 36 on 3 less FGA.

If Luka is that low in these stats - that shows these stats aren't perfect

No stats are perfect, but those were voted the most trusted stats by NBA GMs. The Mavs just weren’t that much better with Luka on the floor than they were with him on the bench this season. The Mavericks were 11.4 points better per 48 with Doncic on the bench than the Nuggets were with Jokic on the bench and yet, with the superstars on the floor, the Nuggets were 4.8 points better.

That’s a pretty huge difference. Some of it is probably noise, sure, but some of it is also that Luka’s still a minus on defense and that he holds the ball SO long that it makes it kind of hard for his teammates to get going. He’s definitely a top 10 player, but he’s not a top 5 player yet. Jokic meanwhile is playing at a top 10 ALL-TIME level.

[Roddy B for 3]

Jokic is much more dominant in the modern advanced stats than he is in PER. PER is just easier to compare across eras to make a historical comparison. Here's how they rank with the most popular stats from NBA GMs:

DPM: Jokic 5.4 (#5), Luka 3.2 (#20)
EPM: Jokic +9.3 (#1), Luka +4.5 (#17)
LEBRON: Jokic +7.8 (#1), Luka +3.0 (#20)
RAPTOR: Jokic +14.6 (#1), Luka +6.4 (#6)
RAPM: Jokic +3.7 (#3), Luka +0.8 (#120)
BPM: Jokic +13.7 (#1), Luka +8.2 (#4)
RPM: Jokic +11.8 (#1), Luka +6.5 (#9)
WPA: Jokic +7.7 (#2), Luka +3.0 (#70)

Luka isn't close to Joker any possible way that you look at it. Joker consistently doubles his impact. If you look at the modern stats, it's basically:

Jokic
(gap)
Giannis
Embiid
(gap)
Tatum
Curry
LeBron
(gap)

then Luka somewhere in the next group. Jokic is a much better defender, a MUCH better rebounder, is much better at getting other players involved, and he scores more points per 36 on 3 less FGA.

If Luka is that low in these stats - that shows these stats aren't perfect

No stats are perfect, but those were voted the most trusted stats by NBA GMs. The Mavs just weren’t that much better with Luka on the floor than they were with him on the bench this season. The Mavericks were 11.4 points better per 48 with Doncic on the bench than the Nuggets were with Jokic on the bench and yet, with the superstars on the floor, the Nuggets were 4.8 points better.

That’s a pretty huge difference. Some of it is probably noise, sure, but some of it is also that Luka’s still a minus on defense and that he holds the ball SO long that it makes it kind of hard for his teammates to get going. He’s definitely a top 10 player, but he’s not a top 5 player yet. Jokic meanwhile is playing at a top 10 ALL-TIME level.

On/off are reflected heavily by teammates. Dallas has a 100million$ PG on the bench to start the season and Luka came in out of shape. Then we moved that 100million$ PG to SG so he can start and we traded for a 19million per PG to come off the bench.

Anecdotally, I think Jokic is more consistent but Luka peaks higher. I've maintained that position for years. When Lukas on his game he make the Mavs extremely dangerous.

It's similar to Kobe (my fav Luka comp fwiw) and Duncan. Duncan game to game is bringing you an A, but Kobe can give you more A+ games and more "duds". In terms of winning a championship I'll take Luka. I actually think Jokic has been better in the regular season, but Luka has been more impressive in the post season.

[dhsilv2]

I think these things are better off in podcast forum rather than article form. Also from listening to a good amount of Simmons over the past few weeks because of the draft, he's brought this up a few times and each time it really just seems like he has a rough draft for this list and uses it as a jumping off point for a discussion. Which again goes back to my primary point, I think this is much better off to discuss in podcast form than article.

What he did was provide you with a quick read to have on hand while you listen to his podcast. That seems his more modern style now, where he sometimes creates hybrids...and that's not a bad idea really. Creates interest here to then get pod listens. Or people listening to the pod will want to see the list so he gets pages views.

[Duke4life831]

I think these things are better off in podcast forum rather than article form. Also from listening to a good amount of Simmons over the past few weeks because of the draft, he's brought this up a few times and each time it really just seems like he has a rough draft for this list and uses it as a jumping off point for a discussion. Which again goes back to my primary point, I think this is much better off to discuss in podcast form than article.

What he did was provide you with a quick read to have on hand while you listen to his podcast. That seems his more modern style now, where he sometimes creates hybrids...and that's not a bad idea really. Creates interest here to then get pod listens. Or people listening to the pod will want to see the list so he gets pages views.

Ya Im working right now with his podcast on in the background. Its him and Russillo and ya its an entertaining listen. Its him and Russillo just bouncing back and forth on guys. And ya I agree with you, the article seems much more like a add on to the podcast, instead of being intended on being just an article by itself.

I think Bill is far more focused on the podcast side of things compared to the article side of things nowadays.

[dhsilv2]

I think these things are better off in podcast forum rather than article form. Also from listening to a good amount of Simmons over the past few weeks because of the draft, he's brought this up a few times and each time it really just seems like he has a rough draft for this list and uses it as a jumping off point for a discussion. Which again goes back to my primary point, I think this is much better off to discuss in podcast form than article.

What he did was provide you with a quick read to have on hand while you listen to his podcast. That seems his more modern style now, where he sometimes creates hybrids...and that's not a bad idea really. Creates interest here to then get pod listens. Or people listening to the pod will want to see the list so he gets pages views.

Ya Im working right now with his podcast on in the background. Its him and Russillo and ya its an entertaining listen. Its him and Russillo just bouncing back and forth on guys. And ya I agree with you, the article seems much more like a add on to the podcast, instead of being intended on being just an article by itself.

I think Bill is far more focused on the podcast side of things compared to the article side of things nowadays.

He's more or less said he just can't write anymore. He just doesn't have it in him.

[iggymcfrack]

If Luka is that low in these stats - that shows these stats aren't perfect

No stats are perfect, but those were voted the most trusted stats by NBA GMs. The Mavs just weren’t that much better with Luka on the floor than they were with him on the bench this season. The Mavericks were 11.4 points better per 48 with Doncic on the bench than the Nuggets were with Jokic on the bench and yet, with the superstars on the floor, the Nuggets were 4.8 points better.

That’s a pretty huge difference. Some of it is probably noise, sure, but some of it is also that Luka’s still a minus on defense and that he holds the ball SO long that it makes it kind of hard for his teammates to get going. He’s definitely a top 10 player, but he’s not a top 5 player yet. Jokic meanwhile is playing at a top 10 ALL-TIME level.

On/off are reflected heavily by teammates. Dallas has a 100million$ PG on the bench to start the season and Luka came in out of shape. Then we moved that 100million$ PG to SG so he can start and we traded for a 19million per PG to come off the bench.

Anecdotally, I think Jokic is more consistent but Luka peaks higher. I've maintained that position for years. When Lukas on his game he make the Mavs extremely dangerous.

It's similar to Kobe (my fav Luka comp fwiw) and Duncan. Duncan game to game is bringing you an A, but Kobe can give you more A+ games and more "duds". In terms of winning a championship I'll take Luka. I actually think Jokic has been better in the regular season, but Luka has been more impressive in the post season.

I think it’s a good comparison in that Duncan and Jokic do a whole bunch of different things on the floor that help you win while also being excellent scorers whereas Luka and Kobe get too focused on all the amazing things they can do with the ball at times at the expense of their complete games. FWIW, Duncan is #3 on my all-time great list and Kobe is #21.

[sp6r=underrated]

I think these things are better off in podcast forum rather than article form. Also from listening to a good amount of Simmons over the past few weeks because of the draft, he's brought this up a few times and each time it really just seems like he has a rough draft for this list and uses it as a jumping off point for a discussion. Which again goes back to my primary point, I think this is much better off to discuss in podcast form than article.

Honestly, that article convinced me he'd have a tough time going back to being a writer. He was always a lively if undisciplined writer. That was completely stream of consciousness.

[ShootersShoot]

because ball is a traffic cone on defense. pelicans will be nuts to rrafe ingram for ball.

when ball improves his defence then this disscusion relevent.

They rate similarly by defensive metrics except Lamelo is much younger and plays a less important position for defense.
With his court awareness, bbiq and size, Lamelo's going to be a good to great defender in a couple years.

maybe or maybe not, if he wants to win he will have to. i suggest you watch more games.

Lamelo ranked higher in a lot of advanced stats. For example RAPTOR, VORP, WAR, WS/48, ORTG, DRTG all favor Lamelo.
Lamelo was rated better defensively by RAPTOR this past season than ingram has in his entire career..

Hornets also won more games than the Pelicans.

I like Ingram but he isn't that much better if at all than lamelo, at least in regards to actual in-game impact.

[holdenwait]

I had just finished the episode on youtube about this. didn't know he also did it as an article.