Success rate for hitting the Reset button.

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Pointgod
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Re: Success rate for hitting the Reset button. 

Post#101 » by Pointgod » Sat Sep 10, 2022 3:49 pm

ShootersShoot wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
benson13 wrote:
The Warriors definitely rebuilt, but they didn't hit the reset button. They tried to stay competitive and even signed David Lee and Iggy.

I can't think of any instance in the recent past where a team dismantled everything, shipped out all their good players, started over, and had it lead to a championship. More often than not, it seems to turn into a repeated cycle of sucking, resetting, and rebuilding.


Because it doesn’t exist. It’s a myth that fans of poorly managed teams tell themselves and an excuse GMs use to keep their job. Everyone’s favourite example of tanking, the Process Sixers spent 5 years putting out the most garbage roster and not bothering to be competitive and they haven’t made it past the second round. Do you know what round they lost in before they blew up the team? I thought they were a first round knockout, but the team with Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner had lost in the second round. 10 years later, after all that tanking, they haven’t moved the needle from a playoff perspective.


Your take is extremely biased and is a very casual take on the subject and you know it.

The iguodala led sixers went to the playoffs 4 seasons, and the most wins they had in those seasons was 41. They did have a shortened season where they were 4 games above .500.. The joel embiid sixer playoff teams lowest win total was 49. The one year they won less was due to shortened season where they were 13 games above .500

The iguodala sixers had zero mvp candidates, and no second all star. Iguodala sixers had no one as good offensively as even maxey. Big difference between the two teams and their respective ceilings.
The needle between the quality of team composition between the iggy sixers and embiids is vast. You are comparing one team whose absolute ceiling was a 6th-8th seed versus one with title aspirations.

Also it took 4 years to make the playoffs as a high seed..not an unreasonable amount of time for a rebuild.


The argument is that tanking is the best way to win a championship, not a get to the second round. Frankly Philly has hit the same ceiling as Utah in the playoffs, yet Danny Ainge gets a bunch of praise for blowing up Utah while Philly is seen as a legitimate title contender, although they’re a tier below teams like the Bucks and Celtics. The Philly example is also an extreme of example of maximizing their lottery odds, but also hitting on their high picks and eventually having to trade for a superstar. The reality is that a tanking for multiple years to a title almost never works out in the long run, yet people treat it like it’s the sure fire way to have success over trades and free agency or making good management decisions.
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Re: Success rate for hitting the Reset button. 

Post#102 » by Pointgod » Sat Sep 10, 2022 4:13 pm

dc wrote:
Pointgod wrote:Because it doesn’t exist. It’s a myth that fans of poorly managed teams tell themselves and an excuse GMs use to keep their job. Everyone’s favourite example of tanking, the Process Sixers spent 5 years putting out the most garbage roster and not bothering to be competitive and they haven’t made it past the second round. Do you know what round they lost in before they blew up the team? I thought they were a first round knockout, but the team with Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner had lost in the second round. 10 years later, after all that tanking, they haven’t moved the needle from a playoff perspective.


Realize they won that 1st round series because that's the one where Derrick Rose tore his ACL at the end of Game 1. They were an 8th seed and weren't going to advance otherwise.

Also realize: In the 12 seasons between reaching the Finals in 2001 and 2013 (right before Hinkie started the tank), the 76ers only ever managed to win two 1st round series (including the one mentioned with the Rose injury). And in those years, they've never won more than 48 games.

The current Embiid-led 76ers have 4 1st round wins, have won 50+ games 3 times (would've been 4 if not for the shortened 72 game season) and have bettered the regular season win total from the above discussed time period 4 times.

To be clear, they've had disappointing finishes to their playoff seasons, but they're now a contending team with an MVP candidate. They were basically non-contenders going nowhere with no real prospects of improving in the previous 12 years.


Granted you’re correct about tanking getting the Sixers a MVP candidate but the argument isn’t about individuals, it’s about championships. The Sixers conducted a multi year shameless tank and they still haven’t even made a finals appearance. And I can’t see how you make the argument that they couldn’t have built a contender with Iggy and Holiday when both those players have been essential parts of a championship team. They just can’t be the best two players on a championship team. The team that made the second round had Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams, Rookie Nick Vucevic, Spencer Hawes, Evan Turner. Except for Iguodala, all those guys were 25 and under. Now if you identify Iguodala and Holiday as core guys, but never good enough to be 1-2 on a championship, then even if you keep them, you have enough remaining assets to acquired better players and supporting players through free agency and trades. I’m not saying that a team shouldn’t opportunistically tank for a season or 2 if major injuries hit or their core players get old, but the multi year tanking to championships pipeline is a myth. I used the Sixers as an extreme example of a team that over performed when it came to where they landed in the lottery and success of their draft picks, but generally the strategy results in prolonged losing and underperformance. I could easily bring up examples of teams that spent even more than 5 years rebuilding and never even made the playoffs.
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Re: Success rate for hitting the Reset button. 

Post#103 » by lonzo_pelota » Sat Sep 10, 2022 10:10 pm

In the grand scheme of things what should be more critqued tanking beautifully or following a player around all season having lunches with his uncle?
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Re: Success rate for hitting the Reset button. 

Post#104 » by Johnny Bball » Sat Sep 10, 2022 10:54 pm

The bulk of their picks are 2025 and on. Of course this is a years long tank job.
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Re: Success rate for hitting the Reset button. 

Post#105 » by ILOVEIT » Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:04 pm

IMO, any owner/GM that uses a specific "Process" of tanking or of only FA and then spends time selling that crap to fans are losers.

A really good GM/Ower just does WHATEVER IN TAKES at any point to make the team a championship team.

These "oh we build through the draft" GM's are the same idiots that miss on draft picks BECAUSE they haven't a clue.

As Yoda once said "There is no 'try', only 'do' one must" ;)

Unfortunately the small less appealing markets just have to put lipstick on a pig and gall it a process. Because even IF they draft well, those dudes are leaving.
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Re: Success rate for hitting the Reset button. 

Post#106 » by ShootersShoot » Sun Sep 11, 2022 8:58 pm

Pointgod wrote:
ShootersShoot wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
Because it doesn’t exist. It’s a myth that fans of poorly managed teams tell themselves and an excuse GMs use to keep their job. Everyone’s favourite example of tanking, the Process Sixers spent 5 years putting out the most garbage roster and not bothering to be competitive and they haven’t made it past the second round. Do you know what round they lost in before they blew up the team? I thought they were a first round knockout, but the team with Jrue Holiday, Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner had lost in the second round. 10 years later, after all that tanking, they haven’t moved the needle from a playoff perspective.


Your take is extremely biased and is a very casual take on the subject and you know it.

The iguodala led sixers went to the playoffs 4 seasons, and the most wins they had in those seasons was 41. They did have a shortened season where they were 4 games above .500.. The joel embiid sixer playoff teams lowest win total was 49. The one year they won less was due to shortened season where they were 13 games above .500

The iguodala sixers had zero mvp candidates, and no second all star. Iguodala sixers had no one as good offensively as even maxey. Big difference between the two teams and their respective ceilings.
The needle between the quality of team composition between the iggy sixers and embiids is vast. You are comparing one team whose absolute ceiling was a 6th-8th seed versus one with title aspirations.

Also it took 4 years to make the playoffs as a high seed..not an unreasonable amount of time for a rebuild.


The argument is that tanking is the best way to win a championship, not a get to the second round. Frankly Philly has hit the same ceiling as Utah in the playoffs, yet Danny Ainge gets a bunch of praise for blowing up Utah while Philly is seen as a legitimate title contender, although they’re a tier below teams like the Bucks and Celtics. The Philly example is also an extreme of example of maximizing their lottery odds, but also hitting on their high picks and eventually having to trade for a superstar. The reality is that a tanking for multiple years to a title almost never works out in the long run, yet people treat it like it’s the sure fire way to have success over trades and free agency or making good management decisions.


You compared a team with andre iguodala as the best player to one with joel embiid as the best player and called it a lateral move. What needs to be understood is that no rebuilding strategy guarantees a championship. The jazz did not have a player as impactful as embiid, nor the pedigree of harden. I would argue the jazz had a lower ceiling than the current sixers although they were imo a pretty well built squad. The current sixers clearly have title aspirations and blue chip talent on the roster, so I would say the process itself wasnt a complete failure. I also dont think people are saying tanking is the best way to rebuild, but that it is one of the strategies that make the most sense in terms of what one would want out of a rebuild aside from obviously a championship, which is title aspirations and blue chip talent.

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