yoyoboy wrote:cupcakesnake wrote:yoyoboy wrote:OG behind the 16th ranked defense has more votes than Allen (or Mobley who’s not even in the poll) on the #1 defense that’s a full point ahead of the second place team in DRTG. Totally makes sense.
I'll reset the poll soon probably to get a more updated opinion (probably after christmas). OG got most of those votes early when he was healthy and the Raps looked like they were just waiting for Siakam to return before they went on a run.
To be fair, the Raptors falling apart in OG's absence isn't exactly a huge case against him. The Raps have lost all 4 games since he's been out. They've been a top 10 defense with him on the floor (110 Drtg despite not having a real rim protector in the rotation), and play like the worst defense in the league with him off the floor (118 Drtg).
(To be clear I currently have Brook and Jarrett ahead of OG on my personal ballot.)
Brook and Jarrett Allen both play on teams where the defense remains elite when they're off the floor. We know the DPOY is going to to someone on a top 5ish defense, and if the Raptors don't turn their season around, OG will not be in the running for this award. But I think we go a little too far when assessing individual defense and not giving great defenders on not-great-defensive teams credit. I think a lot about how Shawn Marion was one of the best defenders of his generation (not DPOY level but close imo), but he never made a single all-defense team. His job was always covering up holes and keeping weak defensive personnel out of the gutter. Never got any credit because we're lazy and we want to correlate team defensive success.
Brook and Jarrett on their own don't make top 5 defenses. No one does. Having 2 elite defensive bigs might make a top 5 defense on its own though haha.
My only point is here is that we can't just be like: Cleveland/Milwaukee top 5 defense=Brook or Giannis or Jarrett or Mobley the best defender. The voters will do that, but we can be more nunanced here at realgm if we want. I'm just as interested in the cases of Alex Caruso, OG, Gobert, Jarred Vanderbilt, Claxton as I am in the anchor's of the leagues best defenses.
Appreciate the response. I guess my thinking is it's really hard to put too much stock into the on/off especially when you're talking about the Raptors really not playing like much more than a slightly above average defense with OG on the court. I know the lack of rim protection is an issue, but when I look around OG, I see a lot of guys who are historically pretty good defenders across the board, altogether offering a lot of length and versatility. Not to mention Nurse is a very good defensive coach. I don't know if I really buy the idea that over the course of the season they would be close to the worst defense in the league without OG. This to me isn't really a KG on Minny situation where he was bringing crazy defensive impact to the table amidst a terrible roster,
I just think it's hard for wings to bring the same kind of defensive value to the table as rim protectors. While OG is seen as a highly versatile defender because of his ability to guard the different positions 1-on-1, your versatility is capped when you're not providing that extra value of deterring shots at the hoop. Plus, if we were to heavily consider the on-off right now, then we'd be looking at Mobley as a big liability for the Cavs, making the Cavs' DRTG 6.6 points per 100 worse when he's on the floor, which would work in JA's favor in this argument. And then you just look at the Cavs' roster and you really do see a lot of guys with pretty bad defensive reputations playing the lion's share of the minutes, like Garland, LeVert, Mitchell, Love, and Cedi. Mobley and Allen obviously make things easier for each other, but in order to sustain a #1 ranked defense, we basically need both guys playing at DPOY levels just to cover for all the holes elsewhere.
I don't mind OG getting mentioned as an All-Defensive Team guy. I just think he has a pretty weak case when you compare him to the rim protectors in the conversation.
Definitely all reasonable points and interesting to talk about.
(And once again, I'd like to preface what I'm about to say with a reminder that I'm not currently considering OG the frontrunner here. I already agree with you that Lopez and Allen should be on top of everyone's ballot, and that the Raptors poor defense essentially disqualifies him from serious consideration)
- I'm also of the opinion that rim protectors are inherently more valuable than matchup defenders. I'm still rolling my eyes at the Marcus Smart selection last year (despite thinking he's a fantastic all around defender). But what OG is doing this year is more similar to a Draymond Green than a Marcus Smart (or Kawhi Leonard even). His matchup defense has been fantastic for years, and I've never thought of him as a serious candidate for this award before now. But this year he's not only bringing the same man-to-man and absolutely turning scorers off (the end of the Phili game last night, despite the Raptors loss, featured OG shutting down Joel Embiid multiple times in crunch time and switching onto Harden to do the same), he's now the Raptors biggest impact help defender. He's leading the NBA in steals, not because he's just picking ball handlers pockets, but because he makes it near impossible to pass to the weakside when he's over there. While it isn't rim protection, he's doing something similar behind the point of attack, and he's doing it better than anyone I've ever seen in this kind of action.
- Speaking of the defensive system in Toronto, I think it's interesting but it's important to note that it hasn't really been working. They're a top 10 defense when they're healthy, but it seems like anything less than near-perfect health, and the holes pop up. Nick Nurse is definitely a genius defensive coach, but his wild experiment this year is failing a bit. The Raptors try to leverage length and quicks to overwhelm the ball, force turnovers, and essentially stop shot attempts from even happening. They're accomplishing this (leading the NBA in turnovers by a healthy margin), but at the expense of giving up easy buckets every time they don't force a turnover (bottom 3 in opponents efg% !). I think Nurse believed he could find a way to compensate for not having a primary rim protector, but right now it's not looking good. I expect the Raps to surge back into the top 10 if they're healthy, but I don't think there's any chance they defend as solidly as a team like the Cavs, Bucks, or Grizzlies.
- So about that personnel. Like you said, a lot of historically good defenders, who I think are all legit good defenders. Siakam has looked awesome on defense. FVV has been banged up and slower, but is still very smart and strong, Thadd Young is still an awesome defender when he plays. But they haven't played a lot of minutes as a group. Siakam missed all those games, and OG went down as soon as Siakam came back. Otto Porter and Precious Achiuwa were the desired rotation 5s, and they've barely played. It's been a lot of rookie Koloko and Juancho Hernangomez (who's defense is not quite at peak Bo Cruz levels). I think the Raptors were already cheating with this defensive system, and might have gotten away with it, but injuries have prevented them from being able to really execute their ambitious plan.
- About the on/off. I don't cite on/off as any kind of conversation ender. On/off requires understanding the context. Like you know from watching games that Mobley is an absolute defensive dynamo, and also that he has been asked to prop up some weaker defensive lineups when Jarrett Allen sits. I get that you see that list of personnel and refuse to accept that OG is doing some sort of defensive carry job. But when you watch the Raps and understand the scheme and strategy, it becomes apparent pretty quickly that OG is the whole defensive system. Especially when Siakam was out and the Raps had no half-court offense, they survived on the back of OG shutting down things on the backline (again not protecting the rim, but making it too difficult to pass out of the Raps traps) and generating extra possessions for the Raps to score in transition. OG misses 4 games and the Raptors' defense PLUMMETED from 11th to 20th. They were routinely putting up DRtgs in the 120s with him out. He's back 1 game, and they manage a 102 DRtg against Phili (who has been scorching everyone since Harden came back).
This is not "my case for OG DPOY". But if he keeps this up, all year I'm going to be pointing out what a special defensive season he's having. So far, it's been the best help defense from a wing I've seen since Scottie Pippen combined with his 99th percentile on-ball defense. But I watch plenty of Cavs and Grizzlies, so I absolutely know what a MONSTER Jarrett Allen is, how good Mobley is, and how terrifying the Block Panther's rim protection has become. It's very difficult to compare the weirdness of the Raps and OG's impact there, to the very obvious and successful backline work of these mobile bigs.
