2024 NBA Playoffs - West 1st Round: #3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. #6 Phoenix Suns (MIN SWEEPS 4-0)

[spanishninja]

I may have missed it, but timing of the previous MIN-PHX games may have had some effect.

- The first game vs PHX as a road back-to-back for MIN, immediately following the Draymond choking incident.
- The second game was also in PHX, and without Towns
- The last game was finally in MIN, but the second game while they tried to reintegrate Towns.

Now, I will say that I think everyone expected a much better performance from the Wolves when they finally played at home, me included. But I was also going to point out that Ant really struggled in his first Play In game last year too, but after that, his playoff numbers (5/5/32) were strong. With a week of preparation, (and Towns reintegration), I think that the Suns might regret that this Ant regular season game does not count towards the playoff series.

I think what you said about Ant is exactly why it seems the Suns will be focusing heavily on him defensively. nobody is underestimating him by any means. instead, we are counting on him going hot if we leave him.

[SunsLyf3]

I may have missed it, but timing of the previous MIN-PHX games may have had some effect.

- The first game vs PHX as a road back-to-back for MIN, immediately following the Draymond choking incident.
- The second game was also in PHX, and without Towns
- The last game was finally in MIN, but the second game while they tried to reintegrate Towns.

Now, I will say that I think everyone expected a much better performance from the Wolves when they finally played at home, me included. But I was also going to point out that Ant really struggled in his first Play In game last year too, but after that, his playoff numbers (5/5/32) were strong. With a week of preparation, (and Towns reintegration), I think that the Suns might regret that this Ant regular season game does not count towards the playoff series.

The first game Beal wasn't playing, Eric Gordon was the 5th starter and the bench had 3 different contributors that are no longer with the team in Yuta, Bates Diop, Goodwin. Also, the emphasis on all these arguments are stopping the big 3 for the Suns. As good as they are you can't stop them all 1 v1. Someone is going to get cooked and a double team will come. That means open layups for Nurk or open 3's from Grayson. Do you let the NBA leader in 3pt % beat you from deep?

[cupcakesnake]

Phoenix does an amazing job of getting our bigs really far away from the rim and either forces us into confusing rotations, or nabbing a nice matchup (Booker against KAT or any guard against Naz). I was just watching some footage and was shocked at the number of time Phoenix was able to start possessions by bringing both bigs to the top of the floor.

I'm not sure we can play double big against them... Staying big worked for us all year but this is the one team that was able to really take advantage. They didn't just take advantage, they methodically and easily exposed us. They basically turn our entire defense inside out! Big on the perimeter, and small guards forced run into the paint to rim protect.

I think this might just not be a Naz series. Shelf him or limit KAT's minutes, and play a whole lot more NAW. We have the personnel to defend Phoenix, but I don't think we can use that personnel and play double big a lot.

I think we'll know what's happening in this series after 1 game (maybe 2 if game 1 has outlier shooting from either team). Either Chris Finch is willing to immediately sacrifice our identity to survive a nightmare matchup, or Minnesota is dying on the hill that got them here!

hmm I was kind of thinking Naz could be a key in neutralizing Phoenix's offense, since he isn't quite as limited to the paint as Gobert. How have Naz/KAT lineups fared this year overall?

Gobert isn't limited to the paint at all. That scouting report is out of date. Our defense is obviously strongest with Gobert near the basket, but Rudy doesn't individually struggle when he has to switch out on the perimeter. He's better than Naz.

The problem isn't just about getting beat off the dribble. Bring out bigs out of the paint, make a play to get someone attacking the paint, and our bigs can't recover in time to provide rim protection. That's when our bigs are too slow.

I think Naz is the worst perimeter defender of the 3 main bigs.

To answer your question though, Naz/Kat lineups were fine. They're the worst of the 3 possible big combinations but still a +5.2 net rating with a 111 Drtg.

[spanishninja]

Phoenix does an amazing job of getting our bigs really far away from the rim and either forces us into confusing rotations, or nabbing a nice matchup (Booker against KAT or any guard against Naz). I was just watching some footage and was shocked at the number of time Phoenix was able to start possessions by bringing both bigs to the top of the floor.

I'm not sure we can play double big against them... Staying big worked for us all year but this is the one team that was able to really take advantage. They didn't just take advantage, they methodically and easily exposed us. They basically turn our entire defense inside out! Big on the perimeter, and small guards forced run into the paint to rim protect.

I think this might just not be a Naz series. Shelf him or limit KAT's minutes, and play a whole lot more NAW. We have the personnel to defend Phoenix, but I don't think we can use that personnel and play double big a lot.

I think we'll know what's happening in this series after 1 game (maybe 2 if game 1 has outlier shooting from either team). Either Chris Finch is willing to immediately sacrifice our identity to survive a nightmare matchup, or Minnesota is dying on the hill that got them here!

hmm I was kind of thinking Naz could be a key in neutralizing Phoenix's offense, since he isn't quite as limited to the paint as Gobert. How have Naz/KAT lineups fared this year overall?

Gobert isn't limited to the paint at all. That scouting report is out of date. Our defense is obviously strongest with Gobert near the basket, but Rudy doesn't individually struggle when he has to switch out on the perimeter. He's better than Naz.

The problem isn't just about getting beat off the dribble. Bring out bigs out of the paint, make a play to get someone attacking the paint, and our bigs can't recover in time to provide rim protection. That's when our bigs are too slow.

I think Naz is the worst perimeter defender of the 3 main bigs.

To answer your question though, Naz/Kat lineups were fine. They're the worst of the 3 possible big combinations but still a +5.2 net rating with a 111 Drtg.

I am referring more to offense. Gobert is definitely limited to the paint on offense, and Naz isn't.

[bisme37]

[spanishninja]

one of the downsides with Lakers making the playoffs is that they will hog some of the day game spots. was thinking of roadtripping to Phoenix for game 4, forget that I guess.

[Klomp]

one of the downsides with Lakers making the playoffs is that they will hog some of the day game spots. was thinking of roadtripping to Phoenix for game 4, forget that I guess.

I'm honestly a little surprised we got better times than OKC/8, but then again maybe I shouldn't since those are going to be even smaller markets than both Phoenix and Minnesota.

[Klomp]

They should stick Towns on Durant- Durant has no blow-by ability anymore and gets the bulk of his offense on jump shots. Towns could just put a hand-up on his shots and hope Durant misses.

They should use mcdaniels on Booker as hes their most dynamic player on offense and puts real pressure. Let Book resort of tough mid-ranges and 3 pointers.

Then Edwards on Beal as hes strong enough and quick enough to bother Beal. Beal will play worse as the lights get brighter and Ant will definitely make him work for his points and get in his head a bit.

Similarly, I've wondered if we could see them put Gobert on Durant for stretches. I just think whether Towns or Gobert, it just helps the rest of the defensive matchups make much more sense.

This might be the worst idea possible. This is asking to get swept.

My reasoning:
Gobert is the only player we have who can exceed Durant in length. And Durant isn't really a driver any more, this year his free throws attempted are the lowest average since his rookie year. He's looking to shoot over guys. Gobert's length can neutralize that somewhat. But where it really makes a difference is that it normalizes the rest of our matchups. Towns is fine guarding Nurkic. Have Conley chase Allen. McDaniels can check Booker and Ant can defend Beal.

[Ambrose]

Similarly, I've wondered if we could see them put Gobert on Durant for stretches. I just think whether Towns or Gobert, it just helps the rest of the defensive matchups make much more sense.

This might be the worst idea possible. This is asking to get swept.

My reasoning:
Gobert is the only player we have who can exceed Durant in length. And Durant isn't really a driver any more, this year his free throws attempted are the lowest average since his rookie year. He's looking to shoot over guys. Gobert's length can neutralize that somewhat. But where it really makes a difference is that it normalizes the rest of our matchups. Towns is fine guarding Nurkic. Have Conley chase Allen. McDaniels can check Booker and Ant can defend Beal.

All that's going to do is bring Gobert out of the paint which makes everything easier for the Suns offense. And Gobert isn't equipped to guard Durant on the perimeter either. They'll go 5 out, that'll neutralize Gobert like what happened in Utah, and you'll be going home in 4 games. It's literally the worst strategy the Wolves could run, which is why they won't do it.

[Klomp]

This might be the worst idea possible. This is asking to get swept.

My reasoning:
Gobert is the only player we have who can exceed Durant in length. And Durant isn't really a driver any more, this year his free throws attempted are the lowest average since his rookie year. He's looking to shoot over guys. Gobert's length can neutralize that somewhat. But where it really makes a difference is that it normalizes the rest of our matchups. Towns is fine guarding Nurkic. Have Conley chase Allen. McDaniels can check Booker and Ant can defend Beal.

All that's going to do is bring Gobert out of the paint which makes everything easier for the Suns offense. And Gobert isn't equipped to guard Durant on the perimeter either. They'll go 5 out, that'll neutralize Gobert like what happened in Utah, and you'll be going home in 4 games. It's literally the worst strategy the Wolves could run, which is why they won't do it.

The bolded tells me all I needed to know.

[Ambrose]

My reasoning:
Gobert is the only player we have who can exceed Durant in length. And Durant isn't really a driver any more, this year his free throws attempted are the lowest average since his rookie year. He's looking to shoot over guys. Gobert's length can neutralize that somewhat. But where it really makes a difference is that it normalizes the rest of our matchups. Towns is fine guarding Nurkic. Have Conley chase Allen. McDaniels can check Booker and Ant can defend Beal.

All that's going to do is bring Gobert out of the paint which makes everything easier for the Suns offense. And Gobert isn't equipped to guard Durant on the perimeter either. They'll go 5 out, that'll neutralize Gobert like what happened in Utah, and you'll be going home in 4 games. It's literally the worst strategy the Wolves could run, which is why they won't do it.

The bolded tells me all I needed to know.

That's your proposal.

[dremill24]

This might be the worst idea possible. This is asking to get swept.

My reasoning:
Gobert is the only player we have who can exceed Durant in length. And Durant isn't really a driver any more, this year his free throws attempted are the lowest average since his rookie year. He's looking to shoot over guys. Gobert's length can neutralize that somewhat. But where it really makes a difference is that it normalizes the rest of our matchups. Towns is fine guarding Nurkic. Have Conley chase Allen. McDaniels can check Booker and Ant can defend Beal.

All that's going to do is bring Gobert out of the paint which makes everything easier for the Suns offense. And Gobert isn't equipped to guard Durant on the perimeter either. They'll go 5 out, that'll neutralize Gobert like what happened in Utah, and you'll be going home in 4 games. It's literally the worst strategy the Wolves could run, which is why they won't do it.

I dunno if you'll see a lot of 5 out lineups with Gobert on the floor. The Suns cant really keep Minny off the boards unless Nurkic is in the game.

[cupcakesnake]

My reasoning:
Gobert is the only player we have who can exceed Durant in length. And Durant isn't really a driver any more, this year his free throws attempted are the lowest average since his rookie year. He's looking to shoot over guys. Gobert's length can neutralize that somewhat. But where it really makes a difference is that it normalizes the rest of our matchups. Towns is fine guarding Nurkic. Have Conley chase Allen. McDaniels can check Booker and Ant can defend Beal.

All that's going to do is bring Gobert out of the paint which makes everything easier for the Suns offense. And Gobert isn't equipped to guard Durant on the perimeter either. They'll go 5 out, that'll neutralize Gobert like what happened in Utah, and you'll be going home in 4 games. It's literally the worst strategy the Wolves could run, which is why they won't do it.

The bolded tells me all I needed to know.

I don't really love the idea of Gobert being assigned to anyone though. When he's in the paint, teams can't score in the paint. If he's on Durant, he's on the wing and even if we imagine him doing a good job on Durant, I'm worried about what's happening on the rest of the court.

I'm down with something unorthodox, I'd just need to see it before I believe that one.

Ambrose, going 5-out against Gobert hasn't worked for teams all season. He does great out there. We don't want him out of the paint, but he's good at shutting down the perimeter. There's a whole season of tape on it now. When Gobert steps out, we have an army of 6'10"+ guys who can protect the rim in a pinch (exactly what Utah was lacking to make them vulnerable). What Phoenix wants to do is invert our paint protection. They want one of our bigs guarding a shooter, and the other on Nurkic who they use as a screen setter. You can't let Nurk set a screen for Booker (or Beal or Allen) and not contest Booker on the other side. That's an auto bucket.

It's going to be a series where Phoenix tries to force Minnesota to guard from positions of disadvantage, and Minnesota will need to get creative to hold their schemes. It will be like a tower defense video game.

[Ambrose]

All that's going to do is bring Gobert out of the paint which makes everything easier for the Suns offense. And Gobert isn't equipped to guard Durant on the perimeter either. They'll go 5 out, that'll neutralize Gobert like what happened in Utah, and you'll be going home in 4 games. It's literally the worst strategy the Wolves could run, which is why they won't do it.

The bolded tells me all I needed to know.

I don't really love the idea of Gobert being assigned to anyone though. When he's in the paint, teams can't score in the paint. If he's on Durant, he's on the wing and even if we imagine him doing a good job on Durant, I'm worried about what's happening on the rest of the court.

I'm down with something unorthodox, I'd just need to see it before I believe that one.

Ambrose, going 5-out against Gobert hasn't worked for teams all season. He does great out there. We don't want him out of the paint, but he's good at shutting down the perimeter. There's a whole season of tape on it now. When Gobert steps out, we have an army of 6'10"+ guys who can protect the rim in a pinch (exactly what Utah was lacking to make them vulnerable). What Phoenix wants to do is invert our paint protection. They want one of our bigs guarding a shooter, and the other on Nurkic who they use as a screen setter. You can't let Nurk set a screen for Booker (or Beal or Allen) and not contest Booker on the other side. That's an auto bucket.

It's going to be a series where Phoenix tries to force Minnesota to guard from positions of disadvantage, and Minnesota will need to get creative to hold their schemes. It will be like a tower defense video game.

There's a difference between going 5-out, and going 5-out guarding Kevin Durant. You basically say as much by saying they want bigs on shooters. I think you can admit that's a terrible idea, especially against a team that's already had your number this season.

[Mr Puddles]

I may have missed it, but timing of the previous MIN-PHX games may have had some effect.

- The first game vs PHX as a road back-to-back for MIN, immediately following the Draymond choking incident.
- The second game was also in PHX, and without Towns
- The last game was finally in MIN, but the second game while they tried to reintegrate Towns.

In that case full context should be given:

Game 1: The Suns were without Beal, and it was Booker's first game back from a lengthy absence. If reintegration of Towns is an asterisk, then the same goes here for Booker (who played his 3rd game of the season here, with an almost completely new line-up).

Game 2: definitely advantage here for the Suns, who were only missing Grayson Allen from their core rotation - thus, home court advantage and better health.

Game 3: Wolves playing at home and the Suns playing the third game on a road trip. Again, if the road trip in a factor in the Wolves loss in game 1, then it should count here too.

It should be notes that all three games weren't particularly close.

For the record, I don't think the regular season is a great indicator of how the series will go. Just trying to add full context here, not everything was stacked up in favor of the Suns heading into these games either.

[thinktank]

The bolded tells me all I needed to know.

I don't really love the idea of Gobert being assigned to anyone though. When he's in the paint, teams can't score in the paint. If he's on Durant, he's on the wing and even if we imagine him doing a good job on Durant, I'm worried about what's happening on the rest of the court.

I'm down with something unorthodox, I'd just need to see it before I believe that one.

Ambrose, going 5-out against Gobert hasn't worked for teams all season. He does great out there. We don't want him out of the paint, but he's good at shutting down the perimeter. There's a whole season of tape on it now. When Gobert steps out, we have an army of 6'10"+ guys who can protect the rim in a pinch (exactly what Utah was lacking to make them vulnerable). What Phoenix wants to do is invert our paint protection. They want one of our bigs guarding a shooter, and the other on Nurkic who they use as a screen setter. You can't let Nurk set a screen for Booker (or Beal or Allen) and not contest Booker on the other side. That's an auto bucket.

It's going to be a series where Phoenix tries to force Minnesota to guard from positions of disadvantage, and Minnesota will need to get creative to hold their schemes. It will be like a tower defense video game.

There's a difference between going 5-out, and going 5-out guarding Kevin Durant. You basically say as much by saying they want bigs on shooters. I think you can admit that's a terrible idea, especially against a team that's already had your number this season.

One of the main reasons we got beat so badly was that we tried not to switch and Rudy was barely guarding shooters coming off picks.

It’s not crazy to switch Gobert into a shooter, especially if it’s to never-driving Durant.

I think you’ll be surprised on two counts: How much we switch Gobert onto shooters after PnR, and how well Gobert does in those scenarios.

If there’s a Gobert weakness, it’s the stepback threes. But those are tough shots.



I believe the Wolves beat Boston by switching everything. We’ve done it before.

[shrink]

I should have expected these types of response, and regret posting. I will delete.

[Klomp]

I should have expected these types of response, and regret posting. I will delete.

Wolves suck. Not even worth showing up. Just hand the Larry O'Brien to Phoenix already because they're unbeatable.

[Mr Puddles]

I should have expected these types of response, and regret posting. I will delete.

Wolves suck. Not even worth showing up. Just hand the Larry O'Brien to Phoenix already because they're unbeatable.

The majority of posts here are people saying that it will be a competitive series.

Who exactly wrote that the Wolves suck and that the Suns are unbeatable?

[Mr Puddles]

I should have expected these types of response, and regret posting. I will delete.

"these type of responses"

Translation: Three posters respectfully disagreeing with your assessment.

This might come as a shocker, but if you post an opinion online, others may actually disagree with you.